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PROGRAMMING NOTE: In the interest of staving off burnout I am going to take a break for the upcoming Memorial Day weekend. We’ll be on our regular schedule through Thursday and then resume on Tuesday.
TODAY IN HISTORY
May 19, 1919: The Turkish War of Independence begins with the deployment of General Mustafa Kemal (the future “Atatürk”) to Samsun ostensibly as Ottoman Sultan Mehmed VI’s new inspector-general. In reality Kemal had wrangled that appointment for himself with the intention of organizing a resistance to the Allies’ plan to carve up post-World War I Anatolia. His successful war (or wars, depending on your perspective) against Anatolia’s occupying powers led to the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne, which birthed the modern Republic of Turkey.
May 19, 1961: The Soviet Union’s Venera 1 probe, also sometimes called “Sputnik 8” in the West, becomes the first man-made object to complete an interplanetary voyage when it passes by Venus. Unfortunately from a scientific perspective, the probe lost contact with Earth about a week after its February 19 launch so it was unable to transmit any data it might have gathered during the flyby.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
A car bombing in Damascus on Tuesday killed one Syrian soldier and wounded at least 21 more people. The explosion came as military personnel were reportedly attempting to disarm another explosive device discovered nearby. There’s been no claim of responsibility but Islamic State may be the likeliest suspect.
LEBANON
The Israeli military (IDF) killed at least 19 people in southern Lebanon on Tuesday, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. One strike in the village of Deir Qanoun al Nahr killed at least ten people, including three children. One Israeli soldier was also killed on Tuesday though the details there are unclear.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
There are several items to note:
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has become convinced that he’s about to be indicted by the International Criminal Court. While that could well be true (he’s certainly earned it), there has been no indication from the ICC that an indictment is forthcoming. Nevertheless, Smotrich has decided to pre-retaliate for his hypothetical indictment by ethnically cleansing and then demolishing the Palestinian village of Khan al-Ahmar in the West Bank. That village is in the way of Smotrich’s E1 settlement project so eradicating it is a win-win for him. If the ICC does wind up indicting him, maybe it can include this among the charges.
A new estimate by The Financial Times shows Israel seizing 1000 square kilometers of territory since the October 7, 2023 attack. That includes the 60-ish percent of Gaza that the IDF now occupies as well as territory in southern Lebanon and southern Syria. Most of the territory is in Lebanon.
The IDF intercepted another Gaza aid flotilla in international waters over the past two days, seizing most of the vessels on Monday and rounding up the remaining ones on Tuesday. It reportedly opened fire on at least two of the vessels on Tuesday but no casualties were reported. All 428 participants have been taken into Israeli custody. Faced with another blatant act of piracy by the IDF, the Trump administration on Tuesday blacklisted four of the activists involved in organizing the flotilla.
Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” admitted on Tuesday that it’s facing a funding shortfall because most of the $17 billion that countries have pledged to the cause has yet to manifest in the form of actual funds. This is not hugely surprising inasmuch as Reuters reported on the shortfall over a month ago, but the board at that time rejected the claim that it’s now acknowledging.
Croatian President Zoran Milanović announced on Monday that he’s refusing to receive Israel’s newly appointed ambassador, Nissan Amdur. Milanović has been openly critical of Israeli actions in Gaza but the issue here appears to be one of protocol—his office is claiming that the Israeli government overstepped by announcing Amdur’s appointment before receiving Milanović’s official consent. Amdur will take up the post of chargé d’affaires, which does not require consent, and Israel will apparently just not have an ambassador to Croatia.
IRAQ
According to Al-Monitor’s Amberin Zaman, most of the attacks that Saudi Arabia has endured amid the Iran war have come not from Iran directly, but from Iraqi militias:
Since the start of the Iran conflict on Feb. 28, the bulk of attacks on the kingdom have come from Iraq, ostensibly carried out by Iran-backed Shiite militias, according to two diplomats based in the region and a senior Iraqi official who spoke exclusively to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.
“The Saudi government believes almost all the drone and missile attacks originated from Iraq, not Iran,” one of the officials said. That assessment is shared by the Trump administration, the official added. “Around 50% of all drone attacks launched on Gulf countries since the war began came from Iraq,” the Iraqi official said.
IRAN
Donald Trump told reporters on Tuesday that he was “an hour away” from potentially restarting the shooting war with Iran the previous day, before he decided to postpone his decision. It’s anybody’s guess whether that’s true but it does make for a good sweeps week cliffhanger which is how Trump governs. He’s now back to saying simultaneously that Iranian leaders are a) “begging” for a deal and b) forcing him to consider attacking Iran in a matter of days because of their refusal to agree to a deal. It seems unlikely that both of those things could be accurate but the main takeaway is supposed to be that the war could (but won’t necessesarily) resume as soon as this weekend. A Pakistani source conveyed to Reuters that both the US and Iranian sides “keep changing their goalposts,” which doesn’t bode well for a negotiating breakthrough in the short term.
In other items, the Trump administration on Tuesday blacklisted the Amin Exchange, an Iranian foreign currency exchange, along with several entities it identified as “fronts” for Amin’s operations. It also blacklisted 19 shipping vessels allegedly part of the “shadow fleet” via which Iran attempts to dodge US oil sanctions. And there’s new evidence that an early April strike on an Iranian oil refinery on Lavan Island is causing ecological destruction on nearby Shivdar Island. Video appears to show an oil slick washing ashore on Shivdar, covering wildlife. The Lavan attack took place after the ceasefire began and Iranian officials have accused the UAE of perpetrating it.
ASIA
INDONESIA
Indonesian Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin told parliament on Monday that he has “made not a single commitment” as far as granting the US military access to Indonesian airspace. Sjamsoeddin concluded a bilateral pact with US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth last month and at the time reports indicated that he either had committed or was about to commit to giving the Pentagon unchecked airspace rights over Indonesia. Those reports caused a bit of a furor in Indonesia, particularly over concerns that such an arrangement could spark tension in the Indonesian-Chinese relationship. Sjamsoeddin now says that he and Hegseth “signed a letter of intent” laying out the conditions under which the US could be given access to Indonesian airspace without actually granting any access.
CHINA
Russian President Vladimir Putin was scheduled to arrive in Beijing on Tuesday for a summit with Xi Jinping, not coincidentally taking place just a few days after Donald Trump did the same thing. The twin visits are a major status boost for Xi, who gets to look like the world leader to whom all other world leaders must go and pay homage. Putin, meanwhile, needs to reassure himself that he and Xi are still besties after the Trump summit—a task possibly made a bit harder, though only a bit, by the fact that a Russian drone reportedly struck a Chinese-owned cargo vessel in the Black Sea on Monday. Whoopsie! It is unlikely that anything particularly significant will emerge from this summit, which would put it on par with Trump’s.
AFRICA
SUDAN
A Sudanese military (SAF) drone strike killed at least 28 people in a market in West Kordofan state on Tuesday, according to Sudan’s Emergency Lawyers activist group. The SAF denied the claim, contending that its strike hit two Rapid Support Forces (RSF) “combat vehicles” that were refueling near the market but did not hit the market itself and did not cause any civilian casualties.
In neighboring South Kordofan state, the SAF reportedly broke the RSF’s siege of the town of Dilling on Monday. This is the third time that Sudanese military forces have temporarily lifted RSF sieges of that same town since January. The SAF has been unable to sustain access to Dilling but these periodic breakthroughs do at least allow for an influx of humanitarian aid before the RSF clamps down again.
MALI
AFP reports on the violence that Malians have been suffering at the hands of the country’s ruling junta and its Russian mercenaries:
According to data analysed by AFP from conflict monitor ACLED, Malian government operations since 2020 have caused more than 8,500 deaths, about half of them civilians.
When the Russians accompany government forces, up to 60 percent of those killed are civilians. When the Russians act on their own, it jumps to 90 percent.
Under the makeshift tents in refugee camps across the border [in Mauritania], the mere mention of the Russians -- still widely known as Wagner -- brings fear.
Nedoune, a Tuareg herder in his fifties, said he was fetching water two years ago in the northern Timbuktu region when a convoy spotted him.
After being beaten and tied up, he said he was taken for two days as the fighters combed through the area, rounding up civilians and destroying camps.
The Tuareg and Fulani communities have been hardest hit by this violence, reflecting the junta’s supposition that they are all supporting Azawad Liberation Front rebels and Jamaʿat Nusrat al-Islam wa’l-Muslimin jihadists.
SOMALIA
Somaliland’s “ambassador” to Israel, Mohamed Hagi, announced via social media on Tuesday that the Israeli government is planning to open an embassy in Hargeisa, following its decision to recognize Somaliland’s independence back in January. Somaliland will likewise be opening an embassy in Jerusalem. Israel remains the only country to recognize Somaliland as a state.
MOZAMBIQUE
Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe revealed via social media on Tuesday that the Mozambican government has managed “to secure the necessary funding” to continue Rwanda’s military deployment in that country. As you may recall, a couple of months ago the Rwandan government was threatening to pull its forces out of Mozambique, where they’ve been battling jihadist militants in Cabo Delgado province since 2021, because the European Union program that helped to fund that deployment was approaching its expiration. Nduhungirehe didn’t go into any detail, so it’s unclear how much money the Mozambican government has offered or how long the deployment is expected to continue.
EUROPE
NATO
According to Reuters, the Trump administration is preparing its next punishment for NATO:
The Trump administration is planning to tell NATO allies this week that it will shrink the pool of military capabilities that the U.S. would have available to assist the alliance’s European nations in a major crisis, three sources familiar with the matter said.
Under a framework known as the NATO Force Model, the alliance’s member countries identify a pool of available forces that could be activated during a conflict or any other major crisis, such as a military attack on a NATO member.
While the precise composition of those wartime forces is a closely guarded secret, the Pentagon has decided to significantly scale down its commitment, said the sources, who requested anonymity to speak candidly about the plans.
These moves are framed as steps toward forcing European countries to take responsibility for European security, which they are to be sure. But they’re also further manifestations of Donald Trump’s tantrum over the fact that the rest of NATO hasn’t stepped in to salvage his war with Iran. Even so, NATO supreme commander Alexus Grynkewich told reporters in Brussels on Tuesday that he expects the drawdown to take place over a period of several years to give European governments time to adjust and build up their militaries to replace US forces.
UKRAINE
The daily Russian bombardment killed at least four people on Tuesday in northern Ukraine’s Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts. Russian drones also caused some damage in the Ukrainian city of Izmail, the country’s largest port on the Danube River. Kyiv has used Izmail to export grain without sending it through the risky Black Sea. The damage to the city’s port facilities does not appear to have been significant.
SLOVENIA
Former Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša has reportedly secured himself a working parliamentary majority and thus another term as PM. Janša’s Slovenian Democratic Party will be joined by the three-party “NSi, SLS, FOKUS” alliance and the Democrats in a conservative coalition that will receive additional support from the right-wing Resni.ca party (which will not take an actual role in the government). Incumbent PM Robert Golob abandoned his attempt to form a government last month, as despite his Freedom Movement party having “won” March’s election he was unable to find enough additional support to form his own majority.
AMERICAS
HONDURAS
Drop Site’s José Luis Granados Ceja has more detail on the emerging “Hondurasgate” political scandal:
President Donald Trump’s brazen intervention in November 2025 in the Honduran presidential election to openly call for a vote for the National Party’s Nasry Asfura came as a surprise to many both inside and outside Honduras. Given Trump’s emphasis on the need to combat so-called “narco-trafficking” groups in Latin America, his decision to simultaneously pardon former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, who was convicted in March 2024 in a New York court of a series of drug-trafficking related charges, raised even more questions.
“I think that when [Hernández] was pardoned, a lot of people were wondering why he was pardoned and now we have the answer, which is that he had a role to play,” Stephanie Weatherbee Brito, secretary of the International People’s Assembly and an expert on Latin American politics, told Drop Site News.
Leaked audio files published by the Spanish outlet Diario Red, in collaboration with Honduran journalists who together launched a website called Hondurasgate, offer an explanation. Together, they purport to reveal a transnational conspiracy led by Hernández involving the United States, Honduras, Israel, and Argentina aimed at undermining and destabilizing leftist governments in Latin America.
The 37 leaked audio files include voice notes from messaging apps recorded by multiple speakers and two phone calls. The coordinated effort reportedly involves some of the most important political actors in Honduras, with the goal of returning Hernández to the presidency following his pardon, repositioning the country as a strategic ally for the U.S. and Israel in the region, and creating a media outlet with the express mission to undermine leftist governments in Mexico and Colombia.
Amid claims that the audio files have been faked, possibly via artificial intelligence, Drop Site’s reporting includes an analysis by the audio investigative firm Earshot concluding that three of the files are “authentic recordings of Hernández and Asfura’s voices and are likely not AI generated.”
UNITED STATES
Finally, The Intercept’s Nick Turse reports on the Trump administration’s “evisceration” of any Pentagon efforts to minimize civilian casualties:
The Pentagon’s top watchdog says cuts to civilian harm mitigation and response efforts have been so severe under War Secretary Pete Hegseth that the United States cannot adequately protect civilians in conflict zones.
Thursday’s scathing analysis by the Department of War’s inspector general came on the same day that the top U.S. commander overseeing the war in Iran dismissed reports of civilian casualties and said the U.S. had no means to corroborate reports of strikes on hospitals and schools. The inspector general specifically notes that the military stopped funding a database that tracks civilian harm that could be used for such verification.
While damning, the former chief of harm assessments at the Pentagon’s Civilian Protection Center of Excellence nonetheless called the new report a “whitewash” that downplays the evisceration of the Center and the entire enterprise devoted to reducing civilian casualties.
The report focuses on the implementation of the Pentagon’s 2022 Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response Action Plan, or CHMR‑AP, which was mandated by the department to take full effect by the end of 2025. The inspector general found serious deficiencies and a chronic failure to meet timelines for 11 objectives consisting of 133 incomplete “implementing actions” by the end of last year. The inspector general found that the Department of War “did not fully implement any of the CHMR-AP objectives by the end of FY 2025.”