World roundup: May 16 2024
World roundup: May 16 2024
Stories from Israel-Palestine, Ghana, Slovakia, and elsewhere
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Today’s roundup is coming out a bit earlier than usual because I have a prior commitment this evening. We will cover anything I miss tomorrow!
TODAY IN HISTORY
May 16, 1916: The British government ratifies the Sykes-Picot Agreement, establishing it as the Allied blueprint for the post-war remains of the Ottoman Empire.
May 16, 1961: The South Korean military, under army general Park Chung-hee, overthrows the country’s civilian government in the appropriately named “May 16 Coup,” instituting a period of military rule in South Korea that lasted in one form or another until 1993. Park himself ruled the country until his assassination by the head of South Korea’s National Intelligence Service in 1979. The military government is credited, if you want to call it that, with rapidly industrializing the South Korean economy, at the cost of basic rights and liberties.
INTERNATIONAL
According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “crazy haywire” ocean temperatures are threatening to make the current coral bleaching event the worst such event in recorded history. The NOAA says that 62.9 percent of the planet’s coral reefs have been affected by this event, just shy of the 65.7 percent that were impacted by the bleaching event that ended in 2017. Atlantic Ocean reefs have been particularly hard hit, with some 99.7 percent of reefs impacted.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The Israeli military (IDF) moved back into northern Gaza’s Jabalia area in force on Thursday. Israeli forces had been bombarding that area for several days, citing the return of militants to an area the IDF asserted was clear of combatants back in January. This whack-a-mole approach, which might seem whimsical if it didn’t involve mass death and starvation, has as I mentioned earlier this week raised new questions about the Israeli strategy, or lack thereof, for Gaza. Even Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant got in on that action on Wednesday, publicly criticizing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan to have the IDF indefinitely control the territory. I’m not sure that plan actually reflects any deliberate intent on Netanyahu’s part—he may simply be aiming to extend this situation indefinitely because that’s what will keep him in office.
Elsewhere:
The IDF reportedly killed three Palestinians during a raid in the city of Tulkarm on Thursday, one of several raids it undertook across the West Bank. The circumstances of their killings are unclear.
According to Haaretz, civilians in Gaza are facing “a proliferation of diseases and infections attributed to a scarcity of food and clean water, as well as overcrowded shelters and nonfunctioning sanitation systems.” This was of course to be expected but, as with determinations of famine it’s one of those things people seem always to talk about in the future/hypothetical sense because it’s uncomfortable to acknowledge that it’s already happening. The difficulty of getting comprehensive information out of Gaza also makes determinations regarding the extent of these problems more difficult. But gastrointestinal and respiratory illnesses are clearly on the rise, as are cases of hepatitis A.
The US military has apparently completed its pier project, announcing that the structure was “successfully affixed to the beach in Gaza” on Thursday morning. Some 500 tonnes of aid is expected to arrive at the pier relatively soon although there’s as yet no certainty that it will get to anyone who actually needs it. That the US has even attempted this project, in response to a humanitarian catastrophe perpetrated by a client state and enabled by force of US-made arms, is one of the most absurd facets of this situation and speaks to the Biden administration’s complete unwillingness to exercise even a modicum of leverage on the Israeli government.
The New York Times has conducted an extensive investigation into settler violence in the West Bank that, as far as I can tell, doesn’t reveal anything that wasn’t already known or assumed but does put the almighty NYT imprimatur on the story. I guess, given the paper’s orientation, the fact that it couldn’t disprove that, e.g., violence against Palestinians is escalating, that it goes largely ignored by an Israeli government that colludes with settlers, and that the Israeli occupation is an apartheid system, is itself significant.
LEBANON
Another Israeli airstrike reportedly hit a car in southern Lebanon on Thursday, killing at least two people. Both appear to have been linked to Hezbollah. A drone strike from Lebanon wounded three Israeli soldiers, one seriously, in northern Israel. It’s unclear whether Hezbollah was responsible. Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups also operate from Lebanon at times.
EGYPT
The Egyptian government has rejected an Israeli proposal that they jointly manage the Rafah checkpoint, which Cairo closed when the IDF seized its Gazan side last week. Their unwillingness to reopen it to humanitarian traffic may be due to fears that the IDF will attempt to shunt displaced Palestinians toward it to effect the ethnic cleansing of Gaza. Egyptian officials are insisting on some restoration of Palestinian management of the Gazan side of the facility.
YEMEN
The Arab Center’s Afrah Nasser argues that the nominal Yemeni government is being undermined by an emerging rivalry between its two main patrons:
Two years into its existence, Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) still has not effectively addressed critical problems facing the country: a dire economic situation, an enduring Houthi threat, and escalating military tensions in the Red Sea. In particular, the PLC’s obvious inability to prevent the Houthis from attacking maritime traffic in the Red Sea signifies its profound ineffectiveness, raising concerns about whether it can fulfill its mandate of governing the Yemeni polity. The fundamental reason for the PLC’s dysfunction, however, rests today in the divergent approaches and lack of harmony between its main backers, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which hinder unified leadership and decision-making within the council and perpetuate its state of paralysis.
Nasser points out that the Saudis and Emiratis are backing different factions on the council, with the UAE’s support going toward southern Yemeni secessionists, while neither has allowed it to function autonomously and both are impeding the formation of any sort of joint military command under the council’s auspices.
ASIA
THAILAND
World Politics Review’s Joshua Kurlantzick says there are indications that Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin’s government is foundering:
In late April, less than a year after his government took office, Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin announced a Cabinet reshuffle. The news was accompanied by the abrupt resignation of Foreign Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara and followed by the resignations of Vice Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow and Deputy Finance Minister Krisada Chinavicharana last week.
The upheaval within the ruling coalition underscores the degree to which, since Thailand’s general election in May 2023, the country’s politics, which could have been calmed by a successful vote, have only become more polarized and chaotic.
CHINA
Russian President Vladimir Putin headed to Beijing on Thursday to pay homage to Chinese President Xi Jinping and the lifeline he’s provided to Russia’s heavily sanctioned economy. I don’t think there’s any expectation that they’ll announce any major new partnerships—the main aim seems to be just demonstrating their continued strong relations, motivated in large part by shared antipathy toward (and from) the US.
OCEANIA
NEW CALEDONIA
The French government is sending police reinforcements to New Caledonia, after imposing a state of emergency in the territory earlier this week in response to rioting that has so far left at least five people dead. The French government is considering a constitutional change that would reduce residency requirements for voting in local New Caledonian elections, which activists have argued is an attempt to dilute the Indigenous vote and undermine independence efforts.
AFRICA
GHANA
At Foreign Policy, researchers Eliasu Tanko and James Courtright warn that West African jihadist groups may be targeting Ghana:
In July 2023, an audio message, calling for attacks on the Ghanaian government in response to the forced repatriation of ethnic Fulani asylum-seekers, spread via WhatsApp in northern Ghana.
“The Ghanaian government has begun to forcefully arrest and deport Fulani refugees to Burkina Faso … to destroy and exterminate the Fulani population in Ghana … I’m appealing to [Muslims] located along Ghana-Burkina Faso border to hurry to intervene,” said the message, which was heard by thousands of people. “Please do well to retaliate the blood spilt by the Ghanaian government,” it concluded.
The message was recorded and distributed by a media wing of Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), a West African jihadi insurgent group affiliated with al Qaeda.
Between JNIM and affiliates of the Islamic State, insurgents today control almost half of Burkina Faso, parts of central and northern Mali, and territory along Niger’s borders with the two countries. Over the past two years, they have slowly expanded their campaign south into the northern parts of West Africa’s coastal states. Despite a handful of messages attempting to incite attacks against the Ghanaian government, of the four coastal states bordering Burkina Faso, Ghana is the only one that reports that it has not suffered an attack by insurgents.
In interviews, representatives of the Ghanaian government chalk this up to their firm response and the country’s inherent resiliency. However, despite Accra’s confident messaging, evidence gathered across Ghana’s northern regions suggests that insurgents are already operating there. At this point, it appears that insurgents see their access to the country as a safe haven and smuggling route as too useful to destabilize with direct attacks.
However, if the militants’ calculus were to change, they would find many of the same vulnerabilities in Ghana that they have exploited in other countries.
BENIN
On a related note, soldiers killed eight “unidentified armed individuals suspected of terrorist activity” in northern Benin’s Alibori department on Tuesday, according AFP. There were apparently no casualties on the Beninese side. Jihadist militants from Burkina Faso and, increasingly, Niger have been pushing south into coastal West African states for a few years now. Benin began deploying forces to its northern borders to try to interdict their movement south back in early 2022.
SOUTH SUDAN
The South Sudanese government and several of the country’s rebel groups have signed a peace deal “commitment declaration,” which is like a peace deal but without either the peace or the deal, after a new round of talks in Kenya that wrapped up on Thursday. The details, if there are any actual details, have not been made public. These talks involved rebel factions that rejected the 2018 peace deal that ended (at least for the time being) the South Sudanese Civil War. This declaration is presumably supposed to be the first step toward a real accord.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
According to The Wall Street Journal, the Biden administration is preparing to ease sanctions against an Israeli businessman provided he divests from his Congolese mining interests:
The Biden administration and the Democratic Republic of Congo have proposed a plan to reduce sanctions on an Israeli mining magnate accused of corruption in exchange for his permanent exit from the African country.
The plan involves the U.S. extending some sanctions relief to businessman Dan Gertler, whom it accused more than six years ago of corruption, to allow him to sell his assets in Congo to the government and end his dealings in the country, senior administration officials said. The asset sales could potentially hand Gertler tens of millions of dollars.
The Congolese government presented the plan to Gertler earlier this week, the officials said, and is awaiting his response. No deal is guaranteed, and the talks could fall apart. The Wall Street Journal previously reported that the U.S. was considering easing sanctions.
The U.S. motivation is in part to make it easier for Western companies to access the valuable minerals produced by the mines currently linked to Gertler. The U.S. has been eager to secure greater supplies of minerals needed for the transition to green energy, and Congo has plentiful reserves of both cobalt and copper—two metals used in electric vehicles.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
The Biden administration on Thursday blacklisted two Russian individuals and three entities allegedly linked to the arms trade between Russia and North Korea. It’s pretty well established at this point that North Korea has been providing arms to Russia, including missiles and artillery shells, for use in Ukraine. In return it’s allegedly getting Russian help in military and space flight technologies.
Also on Thursday the Russian government announced that it’s expelling the UK’s military attache. British authorities expelled Russia’s military attache in London on May 8 so this is simply a retaliatory move.
UKRAINE
The Ukrainian military is claiming that it has stopped the Russian military’s latest advance in Kharkiv oblast at the town of Vovchansk, which is located roughly five kilometers from the Russian border. Stopping one Russian advance and establishing a stable defensive line are two different things, but NATO commander Christopher Cavoli asserted to reporters on Thursday that “the Russians don’t have the numbers necessary to do a strategic breakthrough, we don’t believe.” If that’s actually the case it suggests, one, that the Russian aim here is not (at least not yet) to attempt a full-scale seizure of Kharkiv but rather to establish a more limited geographic zone of control along the border, and, two, that it might be possible for the Ukrainians to hold them (at least for now) more or less in place.
SLOVAKIA
New Left Review’s Lily Lynch views Wednesday’s attack on Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico through a lens of political polarization:
If the shooter’s precise motives are unknown, the attempts to define them have nonetheless been telling. Moscow alleged Ukrainian involvement; right-wing conspiracists pointed the finger at the vaccine lobby; establishment commentators swung between implying that Fico had it coming given his support for Russia, and that Russia itself must be responsible. While they lamented Slovakia’s polarized condition, they did not stop to consider their own role in creating it. For just as the populist right have exploited ethnic divisions across Europe, the liberal centre has resurrected Cold War narratives that separate East from West, bringing this rhetoric to fever pitch. Acceptable opinion is tightly circumscribed. Heterodox politicians are tarred as foreign agents. Violence against them may be outwardly deplored. But is it tacitly accepted?
AMERICAS
PERU
Opposition groups in the Peruvian Congress are attempting yet again to impeach President Dina Boluarte. I don’t want to make much of this because Boluarte has survived four previous tries and her support among the right-wing congressional majority seems pretty stable. But she’s been under investigation on corruption allegations for months and that investigation has now apparently moved on to claims that her brother, Nicanor Boluarte, has been selling state offices among other things. That part of the story isn’t going away even if the impeachment attempts are doomed to fail.
VENEZUELA
The Venezuelan government is reportedly refusing to grant safe passage to six aides to prominent opposition figure María Corina Machado who have been receiving asylum in the Argentine embassy in Caracas since March. There had been indications last month that Venezuelan authorities would allow them to leave the embassy and fly to Argentina but apparently that’s no longer the case. The Argentine government has been pressing for their release and President Javier Milei has threatened somehow to pressure Caracas on this issue.
NICARAGUA
The Biden administration on Thursday blacklisted some 250 Nicaraguan officials and three entities over alleged political repression and involvement in human trafficking. The administration has accused the Nicaraguan government of colluding with smugglers to direct groups of asylum seekers toward the southern US border. The targeted individuals will be barred from traveling to the US.
UNITED STATES
Finally, Responsible Statecraft’s Eli Clifton finds the intended audience for Joe Biden’s approach toward the situation in Gaza:
A New York Times poll released this week found that 13% of voters defecting from President Joe Biden, those who voted for him in 2020 but will not do so in November, cite his handling of foreign policy and Israel’s war in Gaza as the reason for pulling their support. But an investigation by Responsible Statecraft finds that those same policies likely benefit the president’s re-election campaign in a different way: his biggest funders happen to support them.
A review of campaign contributions, philanthropy, and public statements reveals that over one third of the president’s top tier funders — those giving in excess of $900,000 to the Biden Victory Fund — appear to see little nuance in the conflict and show overwhelming sympathy for Israel, at times verging into outright hostility to Palestinians and anti-Muslim bigotry.
That’s in sharp contrast with 13% of defecting 2020 Biden voters who say they won’t vote for the president’s reelection - a group that could tip the scales this November toward Donald Trump - only 17% of whom sympathize with Israel over the Palestinians.
“I think many Victory Fund members are in a bubble and out of touch with political reality but they also seem indifferent to the suffering of over 1 million children in Gaza whose lives are treated by Netanyahu and Biden as worth far less than those of Israeli children,” said Amed Khan, a former Victory Fund donor who resigned in November over Biden’s handling of the war. “The American people see these policies as morally repugnant.”
Thus, Biden likely isn’t hearing those voices opposing Israel’s brutal war in Gaza at fundraisers with his top donors.