World roundup: May 1 2025
Stories from Syria, South Korea, Germany, and elsewhere
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Happy May Day!
TODAY IN HISTORY
May 1, 1707: The Acts of Union, separately passed by the English and Scottish parliaments, go into effect, merging the two kingdoms into the newly christened Great Britain. The Scottish Stuart dynasty had been ruling both kingdoms (the “Glorious Revolution” notwithstanding) since James VI of Scotland succeeded Elizabeth I as James I of England, but the crowns had been held in personal union only. The Acts of Union made it a legal union and thereby completed the Scottish takeover of England. Or at least that’s how I like to think about it.
May 1, 1977: Unidentified gunmen open fire on a May Day labor rally in Istanbul’s Taksim Square, massacring somewhere around 40 people. To this day speculation remains high that a right-wing paramilitary group called Kontrgerilla, part of a US-backed network of anti-communist groups across Europe better known under the name of its Italian branch—Gladio—was responsible for the shooting with support from both the US and Turkish governments.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
The spiritual leader of the Syrian Druze community, Hikmat al-Hijri, denounced what he called the Syrian government’s “genocidal attack” on that community on Thursday, amid ongoing violence that has left at least 101 people dead (according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights) since it began Monday night. In addition to clashes in the Damascus suburb of Jaramana and the nearby town of Sahnaya over the past couple of days, attackers linked to the Syrian government killed at least 35 Druze militia fighters in an ambush along the main highway between the cities of Suwayda and Damascus on Wednesday. Hijri argued that “a government does not kill its people through Takfiri gangs to which it belongs,” referring to the current Syrian government’s al-Qaeda roots and its continued alliances with jihadist extremists, and called for an international “intervention.”
This outburst of violence began after a recording surfaced purportedly of a Syrian Druze grandee insulting the Prophet Muhammad. The veracity of the recording is far from clear, but even if it were 100 percent real an organization purporting to be the legitimate government of a country cannot simply turn its security forces loose on one of that country’s minority groups as appears to have happened here. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa has insisted that he intends to govern all Syrians but between this episode and the repeated massacres of Syrian Alawites since he took power it’s clear that either he doesn’t mean it or he cannot control his own fighters. Compounding this situation, the more this conflict escalates the more it will invite further intervention from an Israeli government that is indefinitely occupying part of southern Syria and has appointed itself the protector of Syrian Druze.
(To wit, Israeli officials announced early Friday morning that they’d carried out airstrikes near the presidential palace in Damascus in order to send “a clear message to the Syrian regime” that Israel “will not permit Syrian troops to move south of Damascus or pose any threat to the Druze community.” This story just broke as I was about to send out this newsletter so that’s all I know right now. More tomorrow, perhaps.)
LEBANON
Israeli airstrikes killed at least two people in southern Lebanon on Thursday, both later classified as “Hezbollah militants” by Israeli officials. The Lebanese government says it has now secured some 85 percent of southern Lebanon and that Hezbollah has withdrawn its forces north of the Litani River, as envisioned under the terms of its November ceasefire. It is expecting that the Israelis will either fulfill their end of that deal—which would mean withdrawing from the five Lebanese sites that are still controlled by the Israeli military (IDF) and ceasing these regular airstrikes—or that France and the US, the ceasefire agreement’s guarantors, will force the Israelis to comply. I suspect Beirut is going to go 0-for-2 there but I guess we’ll see.
The UAE on Thursday rescinded a ban on Emirati nationals traveling to Lebanon. UAE authorities imposed that ban in 2021 after then-Lebanese Information Minister George Kordahi criticized the Saudi war on Yemen. I know, how dare he. Anyway, the weakening of Hezbollah has apparently caused the Emiratis to see things differently. This also comes with an economic component, as the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development is apparently sending a team to Lebanon to suss out potential projects.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
IDF airstrikes killed at least 29 people in Gaza on Thursday, including at least eight in one home in the Khan Younis refugee camp. Also on Thursday, United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk and other officials reiterated their demand for the Israelis to lift their blockade on humanitarian relief entering the territory, which is approaching the two month mark and has brought Gaza’s population once again to the brink of starvation.
IRAN
Plans to hold a fourth round of US-Iran nuclear talks this weekend collapsed on Thursday, when the Omani government announced their postponement. Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi blamed unspecified “logistical reasons” for the decision and said that a new date would be “announced when mutually agreed.” Presumably the “logistical” problem is that one or both of the principals decided not to participate, though at this point it’s unclear which one or why. According to the AP the Trump administration had never confirmed that it would participate in talks this weekend, but on the other hand “a senior Iranian official” told Reuters that the future of these negotiations will “depend on the US approach” and that suggests Tehran backed out. A related meeting between representatives of Iran and the “E3” (France, Germany, and the UK) that was to have taken place on Friday has also been canceled.
Prior to news of the postponement, the Iranian government had criticized the Trump administration for its “contradictory behavior and provocative statements” after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made some threatening comments regarding Iranian support for Yemen’s Houthi movement, so that’s probably part of the issue. The administration also imposed new Iran-related sanctions on Wednesday that may also have played some role in quashing the planned meeting. Expectations at the moment seem to be that this session will be rescheduled in the near future, though that could of course change. Donald Trump ordered what appear to be broad secondary sanctions on anyone purchasing Iranian oil products on Thursday evening—no details, he just blurted it out on social media—which might foreclose on any possibility for continued negotiations.
ASIA
PAKISTAN
Pakistani police raided what they described as a Pakistani Taliban “hideout” in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province on Thursday. The ensuing battle left at least three officers and one suspected militant dead.
CHINA
The Chinese media blog Yuyuan Tantian claimed via social media on Thursday that US officials have “proactively reached out to China through multiple channels, hoping to hold discussions on the tariff issue.” It offered only anonymous sources to back up that claim, but Trump administration officials have been openly expressing hope for negotiations on settling a nascent US-China trade war that is already starting to hit both economies. There have been indications from state-affiliated media like Yuyuan Tantian that Beijing is increasingly open to talks but it sounds at this point like each side is waiting for the other to make the first move. Neither wants to be seen to have “blinked” because they feel it will weaken their negotiating position.
NORTH KOREA
The Russian and North Korean governments have broken ground on what will be the first-ever road connection that crosses their very narrow border. The two countries are linked by rail and air, but amid their burgeoning alliance they agreed last year to construct a 1 kilometer long auto bridge over the Tumen River, which defines said border. Construction is expected to take about 18 months.
SOUTH KOREA
The South Korean Supreme Court threw the equivalent of a grenade into the country’s upcoming presidential election on Thursday, when it reversed a lower court decision that cleared frontrunner Lee Jae-myung of charges that he’d violated election law. The court ordered a retrial in Lee’s case, which may not take place prior to the June 3 election. If convicted Lee would be barred from running for office, and with the unresolved case hanging over him he will undoubtedly face questions about his suitability as a candidate.
On a related note, South Korea shuffled through no fewer than three acting presidents on Thursday. The person who held that office at the start of the day, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, resigned in order to run in the June contest. His successor, Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok, then also resigned before parliament could open impeachment proceedings stemming from his previous stint as acting president while Han was being impeached from late December through late March. The new acting president was, at least at time of writing, Education Minister Lee Ju-ho.
AFRICA
SUDAN
Rapid Support Forces militants shelled Sudan’s Republican Palace in Khartoum on Thursday, which is the second time they’ve struck the city in about a week. Although the Sudanese military has chased the RSF largely out of the capital region the militants are still apparently close enough to hit Khartoum with their long-range artillery from positions on the outskirts of neighboring Omdurman. There’s no word on any casualties.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
The South African government announced that it is pulling its intervention force out of the eastern DRC, joining Congolese and other Southern African Development Community forces in withdrawing from areas now under the control of M23 militants. The South African forces were deployed as part of the SADC mission and are being evacuated via Rwanda into Tanzania along with other SADC personnel.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s “senior African adviser” Massad Boulos is telling Reuters that the Trump administration aims to broker a peace deal between the DRC and Rwanda within around two months that would be accompanied by minerals deals between the US and both countries. Both countries are scheduled to submit draft peace accords on Friday per an agreement between their foreign ministers and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio last week. The plan is for Rubio to then meet with the two FMs later this month to try to synthesize their drafts. The minerals deals would potentially see Western firms invest heavily in mining operations in both countries, with much of the processing to be done in Rwanda. It’s anybody’s guess if the administration will be able to pull this off but if it does it would presumably resolve the M23 conflict given Rwanda’s patronage of that group.
RWANDA
According to The Washington Post the Trump administration is also looking to Rwanda as another potential node in its developing human trafficking network:
The Trump administration’s efforts to significantly broaden the number of countries willing to accept people deported from the United States has found a welcoming partner in the African nation of Rwanda.
A recent U.S. overture, which included a list of names of potential deportees to Rwanda, was received warmly, according to a Rwandan official with knowledge of the situation. Under the proposal, Rwanda would join a growing number of nations — including El Salvador, Mexico, Costa Rica and Panama — that have agreed to receive deportees who are not their citizens.
Though the administration has deported only one person — an Iraqi refugee accused of having links to terrorism groups — from the United States to Rwanda so far, “we’re open to others,” said the Rwandan official, speaking, like some others, on the condition of anonymity to describe private discussions or because they are not authorized to talk with the news media.
Rwandan President Paul Kagame has tried to ingratiate himself with several Western governments as a potential site for migrants, and as that piece notes both the UK and Danish governments explored similar concepts only to pull back over the massive human rights problems they raised. Conversely, the Trump administration and human rights are not on speaking terms so that’s less of an issue for the US.
EUROPE
UKRAINE
World Politics Review outlines some of the lingering questions surrounding the finally concluded US-Ukraine minerals deal:
The challenge in trying to determine what this deal means for U.S. President Donald Trump’s approach to the war in Ukraine is that, even with the text of the agreement released, much still remains unclear about what the goal of the joint investment fund is. When first discussed, the potential deal was framed as financial compensation for—and, by some, even extortion by—the United States. Now, it is being framed as a fund to support Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction.
To some extent, that may be the result of Kyiv’s effective negotiating under duress, as the originally proposed deal reportedly heavily favored the United States. Trump initially pushed for an agreement that would see Ukraine effectively hand over control of much of its natural resources until it had “repaid” the U.S. for the aid it has already provided. Now, Ukraine retains full control of its natural resources and is considered an equal partner in the management of the fund.
Notably, too, any profits under the deal depend on the success of new projects, not existing ones, meaning that the U.S. now has a financial stake in Ukraine retaining control over as much territory as possible. And yet, there are serious questions about the extent to which U.S. and other foreign investors will scale up mining projects in Ukraine, particularly during the war but also after. Ukraine reportedly holds vast mineral reserves, potentially trillions of dollars worth, but it’s not clear how commercially viable they are.
Ultimately, as the piece goes on to suggest, the most significant aspect of this deal may be that it gives Trump a “reputational stake” in Ukraine remaining peaceful and economically viable. That is at least what Trump administration officials nod towards when the omission of any overt security guarantees is brought up.
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GERMANY
German coalition talks appear to have passed a major hurdle on Wednesday when the Social Democratic Party approved a new coalition arrangement with the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union alliance. CDU/CSU won February’s election, unseating the SDP and Chancellor Olaf Scholz. CDU leader Friedrich Merz will succeed Scholz as chancellor, presumably when the German parliament next meets on May 6. Under the terms of the coalition deal, the SDP will control several ministries including finance, defense, and justice.
AMERICAS
UNITED STATES
Finally, Mike Waltz became the first high profile departure from the Trump 2 foreign policy team on Thursday, though he’s apparently not going away completely. Donald Trump removed Waltz from his position as national security adviser but then gave him a consolation prize, nominating him to serve as US ambassador to the United Nations. Earlier in the day there had been heavy speculation that both Waltz and his top deputy, Alex Wong, were about to get canned so the UN nomination came as something of a surprise. I have not heard anything as to Wong’s status.
It’s unclear why Trump decided to move on from Waltz so quickly but there are several theories and most likely it was a combination of factors. Most prominently, Waltz, or someone working for him (Wong maybe), was responsible for adding Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg to a group chat in which members of the administration blabbed about their plans to attack Yemen back in March—“Signalgate,” as it became known. Waltz is also an extreme hawk in the neoconservative vein, so his ideological fit with Trump was never entirely perfect and he became a target for professional internet whacko (even whackos can be right every now and then) Laura Loomer, whose opinion Trump really seems to value for some reason. And there are indications that Waltz just plain wasn’t good at his job, not that competence seems to be a major consideration for this administration.
In terms of a replacement, the short-term answer is Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Normally you wouldn’t charge one person with filling the two extremely demanding roles of secretary of state and national security adviser, but Rubio probably has some extra time on his hands because Trump’s actual top diplomat so far has been special envoy Steve Witkoff. Speaking of which, Witkoff’s name has been bandied about but he has no relevant experience and there are apparently some folks in the administration who are less than impressed with the job he’s doing as envoy/de facto secretary of state and they may be subtly lobbying Trump against that appointment. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau has apparently also been considered, but Rubio is fighting to keep him at the State Department.
Fortunately, whoever gets the job will I’m sure be up to the same standards in terms of competence and ethical behavior that we’ve come to expect from Donald Trump himself and everyone around him.