World roundup: March 7 2024

Stories from Israel-Palestine, Nigeria, Haiti, and elsewhere

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TODAY IN HISTORY

March 7, 1573: The Fourth Ottoman-Venetian War ends with an Ottoman victory and a treaty that leaves the hitherto Venetian island of Cyprus under Ottoman control. Although this 1570-1573 war is best remembered for the 1571 naval Battle of Lepanto, which was a resounding victory for the Holy League, that victory came after the last Venetian city on Cyprus, Famagusta, had already fallen to an Ottoman siege. The treaty recognized the overall Ottoman victory and obliged Venice to pay a war indemnity on top of its loss of Cyprus and some territory in Dalmatia.

March 7, 1799: Napoleon’s army successfully captures the city of Jaffa, whose site is part of modern day Tel Aviv, after a very brief siege. The engagement is perhaps best known for Napoleon’s decision to conduct a mass execution of the defeated Ottoman garrison, killing at least 2000 and by some accounts more than 4000 men. He apparently hoped that his brutality here would encourage other cities along his march into Syria to surrender peacefully, but instead it seems to have prompted the garrison in Napoleon’s next target, Acre, to resist more vigorously.

INTERNATIONAL

The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reported on Wednesday that this past February was—say it with me now—the hottest February on record. That makes nine months in a row that humanity has achieved record global temperatures for that month. Can we make it 10 in a row? I’m sure you know the answer to that. Also, not that this comes as any great surprise, but the service also found that March 2023-February 2024 was the hottest 12 month period on record, a mark that will presumably fall next month when we have data for April 2023-March 2024. Of potentially even greater concern, average sea temperatures hit 21.06 degrees Celsius in February, also a record. Marine scientists are predicting another global coral bleaching event as a result of high sea temperatures, which would be the fourth on record and might surpass the previous three.

MIDDLE EAST

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

I suppose the big news Thursday is the revelation that Joe Biden has ordered the US military to build a temporary port facility in Gaza to enable the shipment of humanitarian aid into the territory by sea from Cyprus. By the time you read this he may have announced the initiative in his State of the Union address, though if I were him I wouldn’t want to talk about Gaza at all that setting so who knows? The Israeli and Cypriot governments have previously discussed the general contours of an idea like this, particularly around the issue of inspecting aid shipments before they leave Cyprus so there’s no need to set up a new checkpoint inside Gaza. The Biden administration has portrayed this almost as an act of defiance toward the Israeli government—an absurdity, given the relationship between the US and Israel—but Israeli officials are already saying they’re fully behind the plan. Since those same Israeli officials are responsible for maintaining Gaza’s current humanitarian catastrophe, their support should probably raise some red flags at the White House, but I’m sure it won’t.

While a seaport is in theory a more effective humanitarian option than airdrops, it’s hard to evaluate this plan because it isn’t a plan, just a vague statement of intent. In a best case scenario this “temporary port” probably won’t be ready to start receiving cargo for a couple of months at least, and “best case” is putting it mildly. US officials have been at pains to insist that building it won’t require putting any US soldiers on the ground in Gaza, so who’s going to do the construction on land? If the facility is ever actually built—a significant “if”—who’s going to operate it in a war zone? Who’s going to distribute the aid received at the port, in a war zone? Unless the Biden administration demonstrates that it has answers to these questions there’s no reason to believe this is anything more than another political stunt—a “we care” gesture from a White House that manifestly doesn’t care. And even if it is a serious proposal, what’s the plan for alleviating conditions in Gaza while the port is being built?

Again, the Biden administration could most likely flood Gaza with humanitarian aid with a couple of angry phone calls to Israeli leaders and a credible threat to turn off the weapons spigot. It refuses to do so, which is why it’s left with ludicrous and/or unrealistic ideas that don’t solve Gaza’s crisis so much as they create the impression that the administration is Doing Something about it.

In other items:

• Hamas’s negotiating team left Cairo on Thursday without a ceasefire deal in place, which means there almost certainly will not be a ceasefire ahead of the Biden administration’s Ramada deadline. According to Hamas talks will resume next week, though given the intractable gaps that still apparently remain there doesn’t seem to be much reason for optimism. US ambassador to Israeli Jack Lew insisted on Thursday that negotiations have not “broken down,” which I doubt even he believes.

• We haven’t really talked about Israeli “war cabinet” member Benny Gantz’s visit to Washington this week, mostly because I think it was an exercise in polishing Gantz’s political credentials for the Israeli audience and not much else. A number of outlets have reported that Gantz got it with both barrels from the US officials with which he met, including Vice President Kamala Harris and National Security Advisor . But that doesn’t matter because the whole trip was theater. It probably helped Gantz establish himself as the leading alternative to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for all the good that will do given that Israel isn’t scheduled to hold another election until 2026. The Biden administration got to leak to the press that it had another “frank discussion” or “candid conversation” (or whatever term we’re using this week) with an Israeli official—to no substantive effect, of course.

YEMEN

The Indian Navy evacuated all 20 surviving crew members from the cargo ship True Confidence on Thursday, one day after a Houthi missile struck the vessel and killed three people. There is a fire aboard the vessel but it’s unclear how serious it is and apparently there’s already been a contract issued to salvage it. It does not, then, appear to be in danger of sinking a la the Rubymar, which went down in the Red Sea several days ago and is threatening to cause even more environmental damage than it already has as its fertilizer cargo spills into the water. It sounds like there is still a chance to salvage what’s left of the ship and minimize that damage, but without a Red Sea ceasefire (which means without a Gaza ceasefire) it’s hard to see how that work could even begin.

Speaking of the Rubymar, the US government now believes that the vessel’s anchor was responsible for severing three telecom cables under the Red Sea. The Rubymar drifted for several days after its crew abandoned ship and during that time it’s entirely possible its anchor cut through those cables on the seabed.

IRAN

There was some sort of explosion in an Iranian oil refinery in Bandar Abbas on Thursday that caused minor injuries to two employees according to Iranian media. Initial reports indicated that there had been fatalities in the blast but those were subsequently walked back. It’s entirely possible this was an accident, but there have been a number of explosions and/or fires involving Iranian energy facilities in recent weeks that Iranian authorities have suggested were the result of Israeli sabotage.

ASIA

MYANMAR

The Kachin Independence Army rebel group says its fighters attacked no fewer than ten checkpoints in Kachin state on Thursday, seizing at least five of them. That claim can’t be confirmed and there’s been no comment from Myanmar’s ruling junta, but according to the AP local residents in Kachin state have reported heavy fighting in areas near the Chinese border where KIA has a significant presence. The KIA has reportedly been joined by members of local anti-junta People’s Defense Force militias.

NORTH KOREA

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has ordered his military to “dynamically usher in a new heyday of intensifying the war preparations in line with the requirements of the prevailing situation,” according to state media. I really couldn’t tell you what that’s supposed to mean but we haven’t checked in on North Korea in a while so I figured at least some of you might be interested. Kim reportedly spent part of his day on Thursday overseeing an artillery drill involving units that are positioned within range of Seoul. The US and South Korean militaries are currently in the midst of another round of joint exercises, which probably explains the belligerence.

AFRICA

SUDAN

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called on Thursday for a Ramadan ceasefire in Sudan, where the humanitarian situation is growing more dire the longer the conflict between the Sudanese military and the Rapid Support Forces group continues. The UK government is now circulating a draft resolution at the UN Security Council calling for just that and the council may vote on it on Friday. The conflict has displaced some 8 million people and the UN estimates that around 25 million people are in serious need of humanitarian aid in Sudan and in refugee camps in Chad and South Sudan.

NIGERIA

Armed gunmen attacked a primary school in northwestern Nigeria’s Kaduna State on Thursday, abducting some 287 students in one of the worst mass kidnappings in recent Nigerian history. The kidnappers appear to come from among the same bandit groups that regularly commit violent attacks in Kaduna and other parts of northern Nigeria. This is the second large mass abduction in Nigeria in less than a week. Jihadist militants are believed to have been responsible for abducting a group of mostly women and children in Borno state last Friday. Initial reports put the number of people abducted at around 47, but subsequent estimates have put the figure at more than 200 and perhaps as many as 300.

KENYA

Jacobin’s Nicholas Ford reports on the IMF’s latest foray into the Kenyan economy:

“People are dying from hunger, children are not going to school,” David Ngooma, a resident from Kibera, Kenya’s biggest slum, told Jacobin. “We don’t see any help from the government.” On top of that, according to Ngooma, the president is taxing the poorest Kenyans too much. This pain is a direct result of International Monetary Fund (IMF) policy recommendations that have been forced on the country — repeating recommendations that were implemented with disastrous results in the 1990s.

Kenya finds itself once again grappling with a dual crisis of soaring living costs and mounting debt, both exacerbated by outdated IMF policies. Over the last year, the price of sugar, a staple in Kenyan households, has risen by 32 percent, while the price of vegetables like carrots and onions has risen by more than 50 percent. The price of maize flour, another Kenyan staple, has also doubled in the last two years.

On top of that, nine out of ten Kenyans are currently earning the same or less than they were at the start of the pandemic. According to a recent report by Infotrak, 73 percent of Kenyans are either in severe financial distress or are failing to make ends meet. Today, the debt-to-GDP ratio stands at a massive 68 percent, and according to Finance Uncovered, in 2023 “Kenya spent more money on servicing its debt than all other items in the national budget combined.”

EUROPE

RUSSIA

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said on Thursday that its agents had killed a group of Islamic State “terrorists” who were plotting an attack on a synagogue in Moscow. According to the FSB the IS members opened fire on Russian forces who were attempting to arrest them.

UKRAINE

The Wall Street Journal reports on the challenges facing the Ukrainian military since the Russian capture of Avdiivka last month:

Russia is attacking Ukrainian forces at several points along the 600-mile front line as it seeks to capitalize on its recent capture of the eastern city of Avdiivka, its first major battlefield victory in months.

Moscow knows Ukrainian units are short on fresh soldiers and ammunition. The U.S. and Europe are failing to rearm Kyiv quickly. Ukrainian officials and military commanders say Russia’s current tactic of probing attacks is meant to take advantage of Moscow’s battlefield initiative before what they see as a likely major Russian offensive as early as this spring.

“What’s happening right now is what Russia has spent a long time preparing for. It has gathered enough forces and resources to pressure various axes all at once,” said Maksym Zhorin, deputy commander of Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade, which withdrew from Avdiivka last month.

Ukraine’s military, struggling to respond, is husbanding its ammunition and seeking opportunities to hit Russian forces on the move, an approach known as active defense. To halt a better-manned and better-equipped foe, Ukrainian troops are also digging in.

West of Avdiivka, excavators more common to a construction site than a battlefield are carving up the earth to create antitank ditches and trenches. The Ukrainians are attempting to replicate the physical obstacles that Russia created on its side of the front more than a year ago, with deadly effectiveness in stymying Ukraine’s offensive last summer.

SWEDEN

Sweden officially joined NATO on Thursday, so our long national…nightmare? is…over? Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson delivered the last bit of necessary paperwork to Washington personally, following the Hungarian government’s final approval of Stockholm’s application. Sweden becomes the 32nd country to join NATO and the second, after Finland, to do so since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Clearly if Vladimir Putin were hoping to stymie the expansion of the alliance he’s done an absolutely bang-up job.

Kristersson (right) and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken marking the occasion in DC on Thursday (ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images)

AMERICAS

HAITI

The Haitian government on Thursday extended the state of emergency it imposed over the weekend in the face of a major gang offensive in Port-au-Prince. Gang members attacked the city’s largest seaport overnight, forcing it to shut down. The status of that facility is unclear at this point. But whether the gangs seize control of it or merely force it out of commission for an extended period of time, either way they can close it off as a conduit for food and other basic necessities. Gangs have also been attacking and setting fire to police stations in the city.

Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry remains in Puerto Rico, where he’s reportedly under growing pressure either to resign or, at least, chart an expeditious path toward elections and a political transition out of his unelected reign. Much of that pressure is coming from Washington, as Foreign Policy’s Catherine Osborn notes:

Speaking to journalists on Wednesday, a U.S. State Department spokesperson pushed back against the [Miami] Herald’s account, saying the United States was simply “urging him [Henry] to expedite the transition to an empowered and an inclusive governance structure” in Haiti. But a Caribbean diplomat told the Washington Post that the U.S. message to Henry included a suggested resignation statement.

U.S. officials did confirm that they were not providing logistical support for Henry to return to Haiti, an admission “akin to publicly pulling the rug from under him,” the Brookings Institution’s Vanda Felbab-Brown posted on X.

UNITED STATES

Finally, TomDispatch’s Nan Levinson ponders the US media’s unwholesome relationship with war:

War, what is it good for? Well, the media for starters.

Shortly after the Biden administration responded to the killing of three American soldiers in a drone attack on a base in Jordan by bombing 85 Iran-connected targets in Iraq and Syria, the Columbia Journalism Review (CJR) asked in a headline: “Is the press dragging America to war again?”

Again? I thought. Shouldn’t that be “still”?  

That headline was on a recent Media Today newsletter by Jon Allsop who regularly covers what could be considered the favorite topic of journalists: themselves. He was mulling over media criticism of how the government had (or hadn’t) disclosed information about that just-launched bombing campaign, as well as its goals, while considering the accusation that some news platforms were rooting for a wider regional war. CJR is a fair-minded publication, so Allsop warned against generalizing (as I’m about to do), pointing out that “asking questions about planned strikes isn’t the same as advocating them.” Yes, I thought, but when you focus your questions on that subject, as so many media reports did after those American deaths and before the Biden administration launched its attacks, not surprisingly it can have that effect.

As the death toll in Gaza passed 30,000, on-the-ground reporting on the increasingly impossible living conditions there was making Israel’s belligerence seem ever less defensible. Little wonder coverage in the American media focused ever more on prospects for a cease-fire. And seemingly in tandem with that possibility, coverage of anxiety over the course of the war in Ukraine returned to the digital equivalent of the front page, making me wonder whether the media requires at least one war to cheerlead for or fret about at any given time.