World roundup: March 4 2025
Stories from India, Sudan, Ukraine, and elsewhere
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TODAY IN HISTORY
March 4, 581: A senior official in the Northern Zhou court named Yang Jian seizes the throne and crowns himself Emperor Wen of the new Sui Dynasty. Yang had been father in-law to Northern Zhou Emperor Xuan, who died young and left his six year old son on the throne as Emperor Jing. Yang’s allies at court engineered his appointment as regent, and after dealing with a rival general, Yuchi Jiong, he did away with the regency and took the throne directly. The Sui’s legacy includes the reunification of China, ending the Northern and Southern Dynasties period and helping to usher in a new era of imperial prosperity that continued into the succeeding Tang Dynasty.
March 4, 1493: Christopher Columbus and his crew aboard the Niña arrive at the port of Lisbon, Portugal, on their return from his first voyage to the lands soon to be known as the Americas. After navigating some legal hot water over interpretations of the 1479 Treaty of Alcáçovas, which divided the Atlantic into Portuguese and Spanish spheres of influence, Columbus returned to Spain, convinced he’d charted a western route to Asia. He was slightly off, but to be fair they eventually figured that out.
INTERNATIONAL
The friendly friends of OPEC+ agreed on Tuesday to go ahead with next month’s planned 138,000 barrel per day oil production increase. This wouldn’t be that noteworthy if not for the fact that it will be the first time The Gang has increased global oil production since 2022. It would seem that member states are more interested in currying favor with Donald Trump, who has been demanding lower oil prices, than in their own profits. Oil prices dropped to their lowest levels since September on Tuesday because of the planned production rise and newly imposed US tariffs (more on this later) that may reduce global oil demand.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
A few hours after it carried out an airstrike on what it said was a “military site” in northwestern Syria on Monday night, the Israeli military (IDF) raided two southern Syrian towns. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, via The New York Times, Israeli soldiers occupied themselves with “searching military barracks before blowing up warehouses and withdrawing.” I haven’t seen any indication of casualties, apart from Syria’s territorial integrity which appears to be on life support at best.
Syrian security forces began a new operation in the port city of Latakia on Tuesday, after what Syrian media called “groups of Assad militia remnants” reportedly ambushed a military unit there and killed at least two people. Latakia is a majority Alawite region and any operation like this is going to raise fears of sectarian violence targeting Alawite communities.
LEBANON
An IDF airstrike killed at least one person on Tuesday in southern Lebanon’s Tyre district. I haven’t yet seen any comment from Israeli officials attempting to justify this latest ceasefire violation.
In more positive news, at least from the Lebanese government’s perspective, President Joseph Aoun visited Saudi Arabia on Tuesday and may have come away with a deal to improve bilateral commerce and tourism. Saudi Arabia has been banning Lebanese imports and travel to Lebanon since 2021 over complaints that the country had fallen too far into Iran’s orbit. With Lebanon’s economy in tatters expanding commercial ties with the Saudis has become a priority. This was Aoun’s first overseas trip since assuming office and the symbolism of that was presumably not lost on the Saudis. The Trump administration, meanwhile, released $95 million in aid to support the Lebanese military. The Biden administration had earmarked that money for Lebanon to facilitate the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire but it had been caught up in Donald Trump’s general foreign aid freeze. Beirut needs that money to recruit additional soldiers in order to deploy into southern Lebanon as stipulated under the ceasefire.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The IDF said on Tuesday that it had “expanded” its operations in Jenin, killing three alleged Palestinian militants in a raid in the eastern part of that West Bank city. One was apparently a commander in Hamas’s Qassam Brigades armed wing.
Tuesday’s emergency Arab League summit in Cairo apparently produced an agreement on a “day after” plan for Gaza, at least according to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. The Arab League proposal, intended to counter Donald Trump’s idea to ethnically cleanse the territory and turn it into a resort colony, is based on a draft proposal submitted by the Egyptian government but appears to have undergone some significant revisions. Chiefly, this plan calls for the Palestinian Authority to eventually take over administration in Gaza from an interim governing body that would replace Hamas. To my knowledge there was no PA role in the previous draft, but the UAE in particular had been insisting on one. The Israeli government has rejected any role for the PA in Gaza so that could be a deal breaker. The Arab League plan also doesn’t address the issue of Hamas’s disarmament, which the Israelis insist must happen while Hamas continues to insist that it will only disarm upon the formation of a Palestinian state.
Perhaps in preparation to assume some sort of expanded governing role, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas indicated on Tuesday that he might be open to holding new presidential and parliamentary elections next year—provided, of course, “that the appropriate conditions are met in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem.” Those conditions almost certainly will not be met, but Abbas is likely playing to a UAE demand that the PA be “reformed” before it’s handed power in Gaza. Interestingly, Abbas also offered amnesty to previously expelled members of the PA’s ruling Fatah party. That presumably includes Mohammed Dahlan, the former head of the PA’s security force in Gaza. Dahlan is on very good terms with UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, so again the Emirati influence seems clear. Abbas’s final announcement involved the creation of a PA vice presidency, which would presumably be his way to designate an heir apparent.
YEMEN
The US State Department on Tuesday re-designated Yemen’s Houthi movement as a foreign terrorist organization. The only surprise here may be that it took the Trump administration this long to take this step. The first Trump administration designated the Houthis as a FTO toward the end of its term, but the Biden administration reversed that designation over concerns that it could interfere with humanitarian operations and potential Yemeni peace talks. Needless to say the humanitarian situation in Yemen (or anywhere else for that matter) is not a Trump priority.
IRAN
There seems to be an emerging dispute between the Iranian and Turkish governments. On Tuesday, the Iranian Foreign Ministry summoned the Turkish ambassador in Tehran to answer for comments made by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in an interview last week regarding Iran’s use of proxies to advance its foreign policy aims. The Turkish Foreign Ministry then naturally summoned Iran’s chargé d’affaires in Ankara to answer for the previous summoning. Tehran is likely miffed at the fact that Turkish influence in Syria is rising while Iranian influence in Syria has pretty much evaporated. But also the Iranians are probably observing Turkey’s latest stab at reconciliation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) with trepidation, since it could also boost Turkey’s regional influence at Iran’s expense.
Bloomberg News reported (you can find a non-paywalled summary here) on Tuesday that the Russian government has offered to help the Trump administration make diplomatic contact with Iran. Domestically the Iranian appetite for engaging with the US is not high right now, but the current Iranian government was established with diplomacy in mind and if there’s any third party that could influence Tehran to give it a shot one assumes it would be Russia.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
Afghan and Pakistani border guards once again fired on one another across the closed Torkham checkpoint on Tuesday morning, the second straight day they’d engaged in hostilities. At least three Pakistani personnel were wounded and the fighting sent local residents fleeing to escape the combat zone.
PAKISTAN
A double suicide bombing targeting a security compound in northern Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province left at least 12 civilians dead and 30 more wounded on Tuesday. The bombers drove explosive-laden trucks into the compound as the first wave of a larger attack, and Pakistani authorities say that at least six of the attackers were killed in addition to the two bombers themselves. There’s no word as to casualties among Pakistani forces. A Pakistani Taliban-affiliated group called Jaish al-Fursan claimed responsibility.
UPDATE: The death toll now stands at 18, including 13 civilians and five soldiers, with 42 wounded.
INDIA
The Diplomat’s Nargiza Umarova writes that the reimposition of Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran could have serious repercussions for the Indian government:
On February 4, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order reimposing “maximum pressure” on the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The anti-Iran campaign is intended to deprive the country of any financial gain, including oil exports, port operations, and ancillary industries.
Under the order, the U.S. State Department is tasked with reviewing sanctions waivers related to Iran, particularly those regarding the deep-sea port of Chabahar. The possible rescinding of sanctions waivers related to the port will primarily affect the geoeconomic interests of India, which has been modernizing Chabahar for many years and has spent tens of thousands of dollars on the project. The port plays a critical role in New Delhi’s transport strategy, providing access to the markets of Iran, Afghanistan, and Central Asia while bypassing its main opponent in the region, Pakistan. At the same time, Chabahar is a key link in the supply chain between India and Russia, organized under the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).
India was able to protect Chabahar from US sanctions during Trump’s first term but second-term Trump may be a harder sell. Indian officials will presumably emphasize that the port project is a potential alternative to the Chinese-developed port in the Pakistani city of Gwadar.
CHINA
With Donald Trump having added another 10 percent to his tariffs on Chinese imports on Tuesday, the Chinese government has retaliated by imposing additional tariffs on US agricultural products and new restrictions on Chinese firms doing business with US companies. The farm tariffs range from 10 percent on fruit, vegetables, and dairy to 15 percent on more critical items like meats, grains, and soy products. Beijing added ten US firms to its “unreliable entities” list, which limits their ability to do business in China, and put 15 companies on its export control list.
AFRICA
SUDAN
According to Reuters, Western companies are filling the (allegedly) genocidal Rapid Support Forces group’s coffers by patronizing its smuggling operations for one ubiquitous product:
Gum arabic, a vital ingredient used in everything from Coca-Cola to M&M's sweets, is increasingly being trafficked from rebel-held areas of war-torn Sudan, traders and industry sources say, complicating Western companies' efforts to insulate their supply chains from the conflict.
Sudan produces around 80% of the world's gum arabic, a natural substance harvested from acacia trees that's widely used to mix, stabilise and thicken ingredients in mass-market products including L'Oreal lipsticks and Nestle pet food.
The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), at war since April 2023 with Sudan's national army, seized control late last year of the main gum-harvesting regions of Kordofan and Darfur in western Sudan.
Since then the raw product, which can only be marketed by Sudanese traders in return for a fee to the RSF, is making its way to Sudan's neighbours without proper certification, according to conversations with eight producers and buyers who are directly involved in gum arabic trading or based in Sudan.
The gum is also exported through informal border markets, two traders told Reuters.
Asked for comment, a RSF representative said that the force had protected the gum arabic trade and only collected small fees, adding that talk of any lawbreaking was propaganda against the paramilitary group.
GUINEA-BISSAU
I guess this was inevitable, but now that he’s delayed Guinea-Bissau’s presidential election until at least late November incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló has changed his mind and says he will in fact run for reelection. Embaló had previously disavowed any intention of running, ostensibly at the behest of his wife. He has already created a political crisis by insisting that his first five year term ends not on February 27, five years after he was initially sworn in, but on September 4, the five year anniversary of a Supreme Court ruling that confirmed his 2019 election victory. The court, in fairness, has agreed with his interpretation. He’s now further extending his term through the election on November 30, and by the time he’s inaugurated for a potential second term will likely have added a full year to his first term. Opposition leaders have expressed an intention to organize protests and strikes over the issue.
RWANDA
The list of countries sanctioning Rwanda over its role in supporting the M23 militant group in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo expanded on Tuesday to include Germany, whose government announced the suspension of new Rwandan financial aid. The Canadian government imposed new controls on exports to Rwanda on Monday, an act the Rwandan Foreign Ministry called “shameful.” The US and UK governments have already imposed economic penalties on Rwanda.
EUROPE
EUROPEAN UNION
With the Trump administration making it clear that the US is no longer in the “protecting Europe” business, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled a new proposal on Tuesday called “ReArm Europe.” Through a combination of loosened EU rules on deficit spending for defense purposes as well as collective funding and financing, the plan aims to sock some €800 billion into the EU’s collective defense. Some of that money could be put toward short-term support for Ukraine, but in reality most of this sounds like a long-term project to rebuild Europe’s defense industrial base and modernize joint European military capabilities. It remains to be seen whether member states will really embrace it.
UKRAINE
Responding to the Trump administration’s decision to freeze all military aid to his country, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky turned his “deferential” dial up to 11 on Tuesday. In a lengthy social media post, Zelensky:
Expressed a desire to “to make things right” in the US-Ukraine relationship after his public White House spat with Donald Trump, which he called “regrettable.”
Professed that Ukrainians “do really value how much America has done to help Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence.”
Said that “Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer.”
Stressed that “nobody wants peace more than Ukrainians” while saying that his “team and I stand ready to work under President Trump’s strong leadership to get a peace that lasts.”
Declared his willingness to institute a “truce in the sky – ban on missiles, long-ranged drones, bombs on energy and other civilian infrastructure – and truce in the sea immediately, if Russia will do the same.”
Further declared that he “is ready to sign” Trump’s minerals deal “in any time and in any convenient format.”
It’s possible that any or all of this will soften Trump’s position—he’s still expressing interest in getting a minerals deal done, despite everything that’s happened over the past few days—but at this point his reaction is anybody’s guess.
The degree to which Zelensky is attempting to appease Trump indicates how seriously he’s taking the weapons freeze. It is a potentially devastating blow to the Ukrainian war effort. But how devastating, and on what time frame, is unclear. An anonymous Ukrainian official told The Financial Times on Tuesday that Kyiv won’t really run out of US munitions for “two to three months.” According to the AP the US “provides about 20% of Ukraine’s military supplies,” which doesn’t sound debilitating except that those tend to be concentrated on the biggest ticket items the Ukrainians are using—long-range projectiles, Patriot air defense systems, that sort of thing. But the real concern may be that the Trump administration will also terminate logistical support, like intelligence and the Starlink satellite internet service on which the Ukrainian military has come to rely. The impact of freezing those kinds of aid could be massive and very immediate.
AMERICAS
MEXICO
With the Trump administration’s 25 percent tariffs on Mexican and Canadian products taking effect on Tuesday, both countries are unsurprisingly retaliating. Or may be retaliating. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is holding off on announcing a response until Sunday, apparently in hopes that she can convince Donald Trump to stand down. Mexico may have the most to lose in this situation, as an extended period under these tariffs could devastate its economy. But a trade war will also have huge impacts in the US, particularly on food prices and availiability.
CANADA
In contrast to Mexico, the Canadian government responded immediately. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced new tariffs on some $107 billion in US products, $21 billion of which will take effect right away and the rest in three weeks. While Trump continues to insist that he’s imposing tariffs because he wants these countries (including China) to stop the flow of fentanyl into the US, Trudeau dismissed that explanation and instead argued that “what [Trump] wants is to see the complete collapse of the Canadian economy because that will make it easier to annex us.”
To the extent that anyone cares, stock prices took another hit in the US on Tuesday because of the tariffs. As I said yesterday, I note this only because Trump and company made such a big deal about the stock market’s performance during his first term but don’t seem terribly interested in talking about it now.
UNITED STATES
Finally, amid new reports that the Trump administration’s foreign aid freeze is curtailing the work of the United Nations World Food Program and “may potentially delay” the World Health Organization’s goal of eradicating polio, ProPublica reveals the fundamentally dishonest (I know, I was shocked too) way that the administration has approached dealing with aid programs that even it admits are life-saving:
In late January, [US Secretary of State Marco] Rubio and one of his top aides, Peter Marocco, said those programs and dozens of others could continue, granting them temporary waivers while the officials conducted what they have called a “targeted, case-by-case review” of all foreign aid programs managed by the State Department and USAID. That review, they said, would take three months.
Four weeks later, on Wednesday, Rubio and Marocco completely ended nearly 10,000 aid programs in one fell swoop — including those they had granted waivers just days earlier — saying the programs did not align with Trump’s agenda. The move consigns untold numbers of the world’s poorest children, refugees and other vulnerable people to death, according to several senior federal officials. Local authorities have already begun estimating a death toll in the hundreds of thousands.
Now, as the administration faces multiple lawsuits challenging its actions, the court fights largely hinge on whether government officials deliberated responsibly before cutting off funding. The U.S. has also refused to pay almost $2 billion that the government owes aid organizations for work they’ve already completed.
Rubio and Marocco appear to have taken their dramatic steps without the careful review they’ve described to the courts, according to internal documents and interviews with more than a dozen officials from the State Department and USAID, which raises fresh questions about the legality of President Donald Trump’s evisceration of the American foreign aid system.