World roundup: March 27 2025
Stories from Israel-Palestine, South Sudan, Ukraine, and elsewhere
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TODAY IN HISTORY
March 27, 1918: The National Council of the Moldavian Democratic Republic proclaims Bessarabia’s union with Romania. I realize that’s a lot to process, but the summary is that the National Council of Bessarabia declared independence and the formation of the Moldavian Democratic Republic after the 1917 Russian Revolution. It then declared a merger with Romania in March 1918, though that didn’t become official until December. The newly augmented Romania survived that way until 1940, when under the terms of the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact the Soviet Union rolled into Bessarabia while Romania’s German ally did nothing. Bessarabia is today mostly in Moldova and partly in Ukraine, but not in Romania.
March 27, 1941: Elements of the Yugoslav Royal Army Air Force undertake a successful (well, briefly) coup, overthrowing the pro-Axis regency led by Prince Paul Karađorđević in favor of a government nominally led by 11 year old King Peter II in his own right, alongside a junta led by new Prime Minister Dušan Simović. The Axis in short order invaded Yugoslavia and drove Peter and his government into exile before carving Yugoslavia up into a Croatian puppet state and several protectorates that were either effectively or actually annexed by Bulgaria, Germany, Hungary, and Italy. The Yugoslav Partisans, a predominantly communist group led by Josip Broz Tito, resisted Axis occupation and, with Soviet help, had driven the Germans and Italians out of Yugoslavia by May 1945.
INTERNATIONAL
The US National Snow and Ice Data Center revealed on Thursday that 2025’s Arctic sea ice peak is the smallest ever recorded over 47 years of satellite imagery. Ice coverage hit its likely annual maximum on March 22 at 14.33 million square kilometers, coming in under the previous 2017 record low of 14.41 million square kilometers. Antarctic sea ice, in case you’re wondering, hit its second-lowest annual minimum ever recorded on March 1, at 1.98 million square kilometers. Sea ice reflects solar radiation back into space, so the less there is the more heat gets absorbed by the ocean and the faster the planet heats up. This report is noteworthy both for its content and because it may be the last one of these before the Trump-Musk administration gets the US government out of the climate monitoring business—which, as we all know, is irredeemably Woke.
MIDDLE EAST
TURKEY
Turkish authorities have now detained at least 1879 people in ongoing protests over the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, while the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) has named Nuri Aslan as interim mayor for, realistically, the rest of İmamoğlu’s term. Although the protesters are demanding İmamoğlu’s release it is nearly impossible to imagine Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan changing course now. His aim, aside from removing his main competition heading into the 2028 presidential election, may be splintering the opposition. İmamoğlu seems to appeal to constituencies across the broad anti-Erdoğan opposition, where other prominent CHP figures like Mansur Yavaş could wind up turning off some of those constituencies. It will be easier for Erdoğan to run against someone like that.
SYRIA
The Israeli military (IDF) carried out a new round of airstrikes on Thursday targeting what the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights called “munitions depots” near the seaport in the northwestern Syrian city of Latakia. I haven’t seen any reports of casualties. Elsewhere, Reuters is reporting that the massacre of Alawites by Syrian security forces and their compatriots earlier this month was not geographically confined to Latakia and Tartus provinces as Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa has been claiming. In fact there are confirmed instances of security forces targeting Alawites in apparently sectarian-motivated operations even in Damascus. The ad hoc body set up to investigate the massacre is only working in Latakia and Tartus, so unless its mandate is broadened to other parts of the country some of these incidents may go unnoticed.
LEBANON
Two IDF drone strikes killed at least four people in total in southern Lebanon on Thursday. Israeli officials say that one of those strikes, which killed three people in Nabatieh province, targeted what they’re calling “several Hezbollah terrorists” who were observed “transferring weapons.”
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
An IDF airstrike killed Hamas spokesperson Abdel-Latif al-Qanoua in northern Gaza’s Jabalia area on Thursday morning. He’s one of at least 830 people killed in Gaza since the IDF resumed its full scale bombardment of the territory earlier this month. At least 142,000 Palestinians have been displaced during that period.
According to Barak Ravid at Axios, the Trump administration has made another proposal to reinstate the truce phase of January’s ceasefire agreement. US envoy Steve Witkoff and the Qatari government have reportedly presented Hamas with a proposal whereby Hamas would release US national Edan Alexander “in return for a favorable statement from Trump that would lead to a temporary ceasefire for a few days and an immediate resumption of talks on a broader deal.” That is extraordinarily vague and will likely receive a chilly reception from Hamas as a result. The administration has been pressuring the Qatari and Egyptian governments to force Hamas to accept some variation of Witkoff’s proposed prisoners-for-truce formula in recent days but the group is still insisting on advancing to the January deal’s second phase. The Qataris are apparently now urging Hamas to release Alexander as a good faith gesture to Trump that could earn them goodwill moving forward.
YEMEN
US airstrikes killed at least two people overnight in Sanaa, according to Houthi-aligned media. Houthi officials claimed on Thursday to have fired two missiles at Israel and to have attacked US warships in the Red Sea, to no apparent effect.
It’s been 12 days since the Trump administration resumed the Eternal War on Yemen, and the AP says early indications are that this latest round is “more intense” than previous iterations. Mostly this is because the administration is directly targeting Houthi officials and not just military sites, which means it’s bombing residential areas and killing more civilians than the US did previously. So basically “more intense” means “higher body count.” Yemeni lives are a small price to pay, it seems, to ensure that Amazon shipments won’t be delayed while the Israeli government remains free to ethnically cleanse Gaza.
IRAN
Former Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi told reporters on Thursday that Tehran “is ready for indirect negotiations with the United States” in order to “evaluate” the prospects for further diplomacy. His remarks echoed a statement by current Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi a few days ago but potentially carry more weight because Kharazi is an adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and was presumably speaking in that capacity. Araghchi told state media on Thursday that he has sent a reply to Donald Trump’s recent letter urging negotiations and threatening unspecified consequences should Iran refuse to talk. He didn’t get into the content and as it was sent via Oman it’s unclear whether the US has received the reply yet.
ASIA
ARMENIA
The Armenian parliament voted on Wednesday to undertake a bid to join the European Union. The EU has not extended an invitation to Armenia but is likely to accept a petition from Yerevan. This is not that, however—the Armenian government will need to hold a referendum on EU accession before it proceeds. Any Armenian move toward the EU is likely to draw a harsh response from Russia, which makes the timing of this vote interesting inasmuch as it’s taken place amid what appears to be an effort by both Armenia and Azerbaijan to improve their variously frayed relationships with Moscow. Each seems intent on gaining Russian support for its position in ongoing Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks.
MYANMAR
Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing delivered a speech on Thursday in which he insisted that his administration is preparing to hold some sort of election in December, I guess with allowances for the armed rebellions that continue to roil much of the country. In fact he called on the rebel groups behind those rebellions to lay down their arms and join the political process, which is laughable insofar as said “political process” is almost certainly going to be rigged (assurances of a “free and fair election” notwithstanding) to ensure continued military rule—albeit less overtly.
TAIWAN
Responsible Statecraft’s Michael Swaine reports that the Taiwanese government is ratcheting up its anti-Beijing rhetoric:
Speaking at a press conference on March 13, Taiwan President Lai Ching-te broke new ground in the escalating rhetoric between the island and mainland China.
While providing details on commonly heard complaints about Chinese infiltration, influence peddling, and pressure tactics, he went further by calling Beijing a “foreign hostile force,” a very specific phrase from the 2020 Anti-Infiltration Act.
That phrase, according to the wording of the Act, applies to “…countries, political entities or groups that are at war with or are engaged in a military standoff with the Republic of China…[or] advocate the use of non-peaceful means to endanger the sovereignty of the Republic of China.”
There is little doubt that China’s actions constitute a significant concern for Taiwan’s citizens and for the United States, which has a clear interest in maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. Lai was certainly correct in highlighting them. But his reference to the Act was unprecedented, effectively building on the drive launched by former Presidents Lee Tenghui and Tsai Ing-wen to put an end to the credibility of the “One China” concept with regard to Taiwan-China relations, or in the thinking of others outside Taiwan.
The concern here is that this designation doesn’t just advance the idea of Taiwanese independence. It also advances the notion that China and Taiwan are adversaries, which increases the risk that Beijing might look to military resolutions to this dispute. It would probably be in US interest to advise Lai to tone it down, but as Swaine notes that doesn’t appear to be happening.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The Rapid Support Forces militant group insisted on Thursday that it is not losing its foothold in Sudan’s capital region but has merely “repositioned” its forces there. I guess that’s one way to look at it, in the sense that it’s repositioned its forces out of Khartoum’s Republican Palace, its airport, and several other parts of the city over the past several days. The Sudanese military shelled parts of Omdurman on Thursday that may be among the last RSF positions in the region. Presumably the RSF will now reposition its forces in and around its stronghold in the Darfur region.
SOUTH SUDAN
The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in Opposition declared South Sudan’s 2018 peace deal kaput on Thursday, one day after authorities arrested vice president and party leader Riek Machar. After the party claimed on Wednesday that it was unable to locate Machar, it seems he’s been confined to house arrest in his Juba residence. A regional response may be forthcoming—Kenyan President William Ruto said on Thursday that he’d spoken with his South Sudanese counterpart, Salva Kiir, along with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and was about to dispatch a “special envoy” to Juba to try to calm things down. But even if Kiir were to release Machar at this point, fighting has already begun between South Sudanese security forces and the SPLM-IO’s armed components (which have been training for incorporation into the South Sudanese military) and there may be no way to unwind this situation.
ETHIOPIA
The AP reports that the 2020-2022 war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region was a dramatic setback in “the fight against HIV”:
Tigray was once considered a model in the fight against HIV. Years of awareness-raising efforts had brought the region’s HIV prevalence rate to 1.4%, one of the lowest in Ethiopia.
Then, in 2020, war began between Ethiopia’s government, backed by neighboring Eritrea, and Tigray fighters.
Sexual violence was widespread in the two-year conflict, which also had mass killings, hunger and disease. As many as 10% of women and girls aged between 15 and 49 in the region of 6 million people were subject to sexual abuse, mostly rape and gang rape, according to a study published by BMJ Global Health in 2023.
At the same time, Tigray’s health system was systematically looted and destroyed, leaving only 17% of health centers functional, according to another study in the same journal.
As a result, 90% of sexual violence survivors did not get timely medical support.
The overall HIV rate in Tigray is now 3 percent. Among displaced Tigrayans that figure rises to 5 percent, and it is 8.6 percent for sexual assault survivors.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
European leaders met in Paris on Thursday to discuss their ongoing support for Ukraine and concluded, among other things, that they are not prepared at this time to lift their sanctions on Russia. This is of immediate significance inasmuch as the Russian government is demanding relief from sanctions that currently interfere with its ability to export agricultural products before it will abide by the Black Sea ceasefire that the US brokered earlier this week. Presumably this puts that sanctions relief off the table.
Elsewhere, a new report from the Ember think tank finds that European countries purchased a cool €21.9 billion in Russian natural gas last year. That’s more than the €18.7 billion they collectively sent to Ukraine in financial assistance, though to be fair that figure doesn’t include military aid. What’s more interesting is that European Union member states increased their collective purchases of Russian gas by 18 percent last year, at a time when they’ve committed to phasing out those purchases.
UKRAINE
Both Reuters and The Financial Times are reporting that the Trump administration has presented Ukraine with “a new, more expansive minerals deal” as the former put it. The new version still offers Ukraine zero security guarantees and now requires that revenue from all state and privately managed natural resources be contributed to a “joint investment fund” that would be managed by the US. The FT described it as “a dramatic escalation” that “would apply to all mineral resources, including oil and gas, and major energy assets across the entire Ukrainian territory.” The fund’s royalties would be paid first to the United States to recover the funds it has expended on Ukraine since 2022 (including a 4 percent interest rate), then they could become available to Ukraine. The new proposal apparently does not make explicit reference to Donald Trump’s suggestion that the US assume ownership of Ukrainian nuclear power facilities, but the terms of the arrangement are apparently changing frequently and that could wind up in a subsequent draft.
AMERICAS
CANADA
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney had some rather stark things to say about his country’s southern neighbor on Thursday:
Canada’s traditional relationship with the United States is over, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Thursday in response to President Donald Trump’s potentially crippling auto tariffs.
Carney said he expects to speak to Trump in the coming days. The president reached out to his office on Wednesday, but the Canadian leader has said Trump must first respect Canada’s sovereignty.
“The old relationship we had with the United States, based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation, is over,” Carney said on Parliament Hill after breaking from the federal campaign trail on Wednesday night in the face of Trump’s latest threats.
“We must fundamentally reimagine our economy. We will need to ensure that Canada can succeed in a drastically different world.”
It’s unclear whether Carney was calling explicitly for a reconsideration of the 2018 US-Mexico-Canada Agreement but that could be on the table at some point.
GREENLAND
Greenland’s Democratic Party is reportedly forming a broad, four party governing coalition following the territory’s general election earlier this month. The Democrats won that contest but, at ten seats in the territorial parliament they were six seats shy of an outright majority. The coalition announcement is expected on Friday and at that time the Democrats should announce that they’ll be joined by the Inuit Ataqatigiit, Siumut, and Atassut parties in a government that will command 23 of the 31 seats in the new legislature. Democratic Party leader Jens Frederik Nielsen will serve as prime minister. The idea to form an ideologically broad coalition is undoubtedly a response to fears about Donald Trump’s designs on Greenland, and the fact that the coalition announcement is coming on the same day that US Vice President JD Vance is supposed to be visiting the territory is probably not a coincidence.
UNITED STATES
Finally, The Nation’s Phyllis Bennis argues that the real scandal around what’s apparently being dubbed “Signalgate” has nothing to do with a national security leak:
Signalgate has taken over the airwaves, TV news, radio shows, computer screens, newsfeeds, social media and more. That’s not surprising—it was a huge breach of the most basic rules of the intelligence community: You don’t talk about targets with anyone who doesn’t need to know; you don’t spill the times and plans for coming attacks, and you don’t talk about military stuff at all on commercial messaging services in an informal chat-group with a bunch of government principals—and invite a well-known journalist to join in. And you never hold official government meetings on a comms system that deletes the record in four weeks, so the National Archives, where the record of every meeting is supposed to end up, never knows it exists.
So yeah, the violation of intelligence rules was a really big deal. One or two heads might roll—or maybe it’ll soon be overtaken by an even bigger incompetence scandal.
But the biggest threat—that has already resulted in real lives lost—is being ignored. And that is the threat to the lives of Yemeni people—who, how many, how many were children, we still don’t know—being killed by US bombs across the poorest nation in the Arab world.