World roundup: March 21 2024

Stories from Israel-Palestine, Niger, Ukraine, and elsewhere

This is the web version of Foreign Exchanges, but did you know you can get it delivered right to your inbox? Sign up today:

---

PROGRAMMING NOTE: As previously indicated, tonight’s roundup will be our last for a bit. I need to recharge and take care of some family things. We’ll return to our regular schedule on April 2.

TODAY IN HISTORY

March 21, 1814: At the Battle of Arcis-sur-Aube, Napoleon is successfully able to disengage his army and retreat in order in the face of a much larger Austrian-Russian-Bavarian opponent. Though a tactical success for the French army, strategically the retreat allowed the Allies to move closer to Paris, and that’s a big part of the reason why this battle was the second-to-last engagement Napoleon fought before the Allies forced him into his first exile.

March 21, 1935: Iranian ruler Reza Shah Pahlavi’s request that the rest of the world call his country “Iran” instead of “Persia” officially takes effect.

INTERNATIONAL

The United Nations General Assembly on Thursday unanimously adopted a resolution calling for “safe, secure, and trustworthy” artificial intelligence systems that are designed with an eye toward protecting human rights. It is the first AI-focused resolution adopted by the UN so it is noteworthy despite the usual limitations (non-binding/unenforceable) that apply to all UNGA actions. The measure, which had been backed by the United States, could provide some basis for international AI guidelines moving forward.

MIDDLE EAST

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

Top-level Gaza ceasefire talks are expected to resume in Qatar on Friday, with Israel sending Mossad boss David Barnea and the Biden administration sending CIA director William Burns to participate alongside Qatari and Egyptian representatives. There have been technical-level talks going on in Doha throughout the week but there’s no indication whether they’ve made any substantive progress toward a deal. Barnea’s return to the talks (he’d been in Doha on Monday and then went back to Israel) could be a promising sign but who knows? US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Egypt on Thursday for meetings with representatives of five Arab states (Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE in addition to the Egyptians) and the Palestinian Authority, as well as a chat with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, to discuss the situation in Gaza and told reporters that “gaps are narrowing” in the negotiations, whatever that means.

Elsewhere:

• The Biden administration is reportedly planning to bring its latest ceasefire resolution to a vote in the UN Security Council on Friday. It apparently calls for an “immediate and sustained” (for six weeks) ceasefire coupled with prisoner exchanges and significantly increased humanitarian relief. It uses watered down language as compared with two prior UNSC ceasefire resolutions that the administration vetoed but is nevertheless the furthest the US has gone so far in terms of urging a ceasefire.

• The French government is reportedly drafting its own ceasefire resolution, the wording of which is unclear. It may be less likely to trigger a Russian and/or Chinese veto but conversely that would make it more likely to trigger a US veto.

• The Israeli military’s (IDF) operation in and around Shifa Hospital in Gaza City stretched into its fourth day on Thursday with no end in sight. The IDF says it’s killed “over 140 terrorists” since the start of the operation. There’s no way to confirm that all 140 can be classified as combatants and I’m sure the IDF will try to make sure that remains the case in perpetuity.

• An overnight IDF raid in the Nur Shams refugee camp near the West Bank city of Tulkarm left at least four Palestinians dead by the time it wrapped up Thursday morning. Israeli officials have of course characterized all four as combatants. Israeli forces killed at least ten Palestinians across the West Bank over a 24 hour period starting with the airstrike that killed three people in Jenin on Wednesday evening and including three more Palestinians gunned down in separate incidents during the day on Thursday.

• According to The Wall Street Journal, the Israeli government is moving forward with a plan to enlist “Palestinian leaders and businessmen” with no ties to Hamas into service distributing humanitarian aid in Gaza and, after the IDF operation is over, governing the territory. They’d be supported by a new security force funded, in theory, by Arab governments. This, apparently, is the Israeli government’s “day after” plan for Gaza. Anyone who would participate in this project would be under threat from Hamas and at risk of being tarred as collaborators by Palestinians in general, so I have a hard time believing they’ll be able to find enough volunteers to make this feasible.

YEMEN

Hostilities in the Red Sea have apparently stranded the rotting husk of the FSO Safer, an oil tanker that’s been stuck off of the Yemeni coast since 2014, as well as the tanker that now holds the Safer’s former cargo, the MT Yemen. A UN operation transferred the oil that was on the Safer to the Yemen in August but then ran into major delays. A lack of funding forestalled plans to tow away the Safer’s remains, which are still an environmental hazard, while disputes over ownership of the oil left the Yemen stuck in place as well. Even if those challenges were overcome it would be impossible under the circumstances to move forward with either operation.

ASIA

AFGHANISTAN

A suicide bombing killed at least three people and wounded another 12 outside a bank in the Afghan city of Kandahar on Thursday. Islamic State claimed responsibility.

UPDATE: The New York Times, citing “hospital staff,” is reporting a death toll of “at least 20” people, with 50 more wounded. It’s further reporting that the bombing “targeted Taliban members who had gathered at the bank to collect their salaries.” Afghan officials are apparently sticking with the much lower casualty count noted above, at least for the time being.

PAKISTAN

A roadside bomb killed at least two soldiers and wounded 15 other people in northern Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province on Thursday. There’s been no claim of responsibility here as far as I’m aware, but that’s Pakistani Taliban country so one assumes they were involved.

AFRICA

SENEGAL

Senegalese voters will (probably) head to the polls on Sunday for that country’s postponed presidential election. Incumbent Macky Sall is term-limited and has thrown his support behind his former prime minister, Amadou Ba, who might have been considered the favorite before Sall’s botched attempt to extend his own term by delaying the vote sparked considerable public resistance. The race at this point seems up for grabs and likely to head to a runoff that has yet to be scheduled. If you missed it, Alex Thurston wrote a column for FX today that covered the election drama:

NIGER

We’re double-dipping today, because Alex also has a new piece up at Responsible Statecraft on the Nigerien junta’s decision to expel the US military:

The episode underscores both the misguidedness of America’s pre-coup policies towards Niger and the incoherence of current policymaking. In terms of pre-coup policies, Niger was a darling of American counterterrorism in Africa. Looking the other way over civilian overreach (particularly under President Mahamadou Issoufou from 2011-2021) and military abuses was long justified in the name of the “partnership.”

But one thing for American policymakers to reflect on is why the supposed closeness of the two militaries — including longstanding relationships at the senior level — has not translated into any substantial American influence over the junta. If huge investments in training and infrastructure can evaporate with a change in political fortunes, and if those investments cannot be proven to have flattened the curve of the Sahelian insurgency in the first place, then what are they worth?

UGANDA

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni announced late Thursday that he’s appointed his son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, as Chief of Defense Forces, making him the highest ranking uniformed officer in the Ugandan military. The move seems meant to bolster Kainerugaba’s resume ahead of his expected succession. Kainerugaba has reportedly been holding rallies to build support for his candidacy, though he’s insisted that they’re “nonpartisan” to get around rules about military personnel engaging in nakedly political activities. At one point last year he briefly “announced” his candidacy in Uganda’s next scheduled election (in early 2026) before taking it back, but there’s good reason to think that the 79 year old Museveni intends to pass the reins to him at that time.

EUROPE

UKRAINE

The Russian military launched a barrage of 31 missiles at Kyiv early Thursday morning, its first major attack on the Ukrainian capital in a bit over six weeks. The Ukrainian military says it intercepted all of the projectiles but falling wreckage wounded at least 13 people. Elsewhere, Russian forces reportedly captured Tonenke, a village in Ukraine’s Donetsk oblast. If true that’s the second village the Russians have taken this week in the area west of Avdiivka.

European Union leaders apparently made significant progress on Thursday toward adopting a proposal to use the profits generated by frozen Russian assets (thought to be between €2.5 billion and €3 billion per year) to fund the Ukrainian war effort. They’ve agreed in principle to the plan, proposed by the European Commission, though that’s only a preliminary step toward actually implementing it. This is a surprising development, as going into Thursday’s summit there was no clear consensus among EU members around this idea. Several member states, including France and Germany, were supporting, but a number of smaller states with traditions of military neutrality objected to using the funds to pay for arms and Hungary, at least, opposed using them to support Ukraine at all. In a concession to the former, 10 percent of the funds are being set aside for non-military reconstruction spending. In a concession to Hungary, some portion of the overall funds may be devoted to EU peacekeeping expenditures outside of Ukraine altogether.

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

EU leaders also agreed on Thursday to begin membership negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina. This doesn’t mean the country’s accession is imminent—negotiations can and probably will take years and all concerned were at pains on Thursday to stress that the EU is expecting further reform before it could admit Bosnia to the club. The ongoing secessionist campaign by Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik is presumably one of the obstacles to membership.

SLOVENIA

The Slovenian government expelled a Russian diplomat on Thursday, probably for spying though officially the charge is “activities incompatible with the diplomatic status.” Moscow will presumably retaliate at some point.

SLOVAKIA

Voters in Slovakia will head to the polls on Saturday to choose a new president. They are expected to elect former Prime Minister Peter Pellegrini, an ally of current PM Robert Fico whose election would strengthen Fico’s political position, though polling suggests it could be a tight contest and voters may opt for a divided government by electing opposition candidate Ivan Korčok. Incumbent Zuzana Čaputová, who is opposed to Fico, has opted not to run for reelection.

PORTUGAL

Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa on Thursday tapped Democratic Alliance (AD) coalition leader Luis Montenegro as the country’s new prime minister. The center-right AD won this month’s parliamentary election but fell well short of a majority with just 80 seats in the 130 seat legislature. Montenegro has refused to negotiate a coalition agreement with the far-right Chega party and apparently intends to try leading a minority government. He’ll need to submit his cabinet’s agenda to parliament for approval, but under Portuguese rules the parliament would need to proactively vote against it for the government to fall (as opposed to the need for an affirmative confirmation vote). His accession, then, is probably but not certain. How he plans to govern without a stable majority is unclear.

Rebelo de Sousa (R) meeting with Montenegro (C) in Lisbon on Thursday (Stringer/Anadolu via Getty Images)

AMERICAS

VENEZUELA

The Venezuelan Congress has approved the creation of a new state, “Guayana Esequiba,” on what is internationally recognized as the Esequibo region of neighboring Guyana. Venezuelan voters, or at least a few of them (probably) voted in a December referendum in support of the annexation of that region, over which the Venezuelan government has a claim that extends back to the colonial era. The new state will exist only on paper and there remains no indication that the Venezuelan government is preparing to act on its claim. The aim may be to extract some portion of the profits generated by the region’s considerable mineral wealth.

HAITI

Two Haitian gang leaders have been killed over the past two days. One, Delmas 95 gang leader Ernst Julme, was reportedly killed by police in Port-au-Prince on Thursday. The other is believed to have been killed and his body burned by the Bwa Kale vigilante group in the city’s Petion-Ville suburb the previous day.

UNITED STATES

Finally, Responsible Statecraft’s Nick Cleveland-Stout highlights growing concerns about the direction of high-tech defense spending:

It doesn’t take a Luddite to realize that the Pentagon should exercise caution when partnering with VC firms on exploring technologies such as AI-powered language models and autonomous weapons. As Craig Martell, the head of the Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office at the Pentagon, warns, AI chatbots “speak authoritatively, so we just believe them,” despite the fact that these devices often spit out misleading or outright false answers. In a new report from Public Citizen, Robert Weissman and Savannah Wooten argue that autonomous weapons can lead to dehumanization or even loss of human control. “AI-driven swarms involve autonomous agents that would interact with and coordinate with each other, likely in ways not foreseen by humans and also likely indecipherable to humans in real-time,” Weissman and Wooten write.

The Pentagon has some guardrails in place that urge caution with technology like artificial intelligence and autonomous weapons. A Pentagon directive, issued just a month after the creation of the OSC in January 2023, requires autonomous weapons to be designed to allow human operators to exercise “appropriate levels of human judgment over the use of force,” establishes testing and evaluation standards for autonomous weapons, and mandates a chain of review for approval, among other requirements.

But a number of critics outside of the department question whether this approach goes far enough. A Human Rights Watch/Harvard Law School International Human Rights clinic review of the policy noted that the directive allows for significant loopholes, among them allowing the senior review of autonomous weapons to be waived “in cases of urgent military need.” Weissman and Wooten argue that the “biggest shortcoming of the directive, however, is that it permits the development and deployment of lethal autonomous weapons at all.”