World roundup: March 14 2024
World roundup: March 14 2024
Stories from Israel-Palestine, China, Haiti, and elsewhere
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TODAY IN HISTORY
March 14, 1369: King Peter of Castile (and León) is defeated by forces supporting his half-brother (and rival claimant to the throne) Henry of Trastámara in a battle at the city of Montiel, bringing an end to the 1351-1369 Castilian Civil War. Peter had been indirectly supported by England throughout much of that conflict, with Edward the Black Prince commanding his forces very ably. Notably Edward did so in his capacity as Prince of Aquitaine, because by a legal technicality this meant he wasn’t violating the 1360 Treaty of Brétigny that made peace between England and France. You have to respect the rules, right? Anyway, Peter managed to alienate Edward in 1367 and his fortunes took a drastic downward turn. After this battle he fled into the nearby Montiel castle, but Henry drew him out and murdered him on March 23. Henry became King Henry II of Castile and León.
March 14, 1978: The Israeli Defense Forces invade southern Lebanon as far north as the Litani River in the cleverly named “Operation Litani.” The invasion was an outgrowth of both the 1975-1990 Lebanese Civil War and the longstanding conflict between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization. Its aim was to drive the PLO out of southern Lebanon and strengthen the South Lebanon Army, a Christian militia that was supported by the Israelis. In about a week of fighting Israeli forces killed somewhere between 1100 and 2000 people and displaced tens of thousands more. They withdrew in late March, ostensibly in favor of UN peacekeepers though in reality in favor of the SLA. That militia continued to clash with the PLO, sparking a second and much more impactful Israeli invasion in 1982.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
After I had already written most of tonight’s newsletter, several outlets began reporting that the Israeli military (IDF) had carried two more attacks on Palestinians attempting to access humanitarian aid on Thursday. One incident took place in the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, where the IDF carried out an airstrike on a distribution center and killed at least eight people. The second incident sounds similar to last month’s “flour massacre” in that it took place in northern Gaza and involved Israeli soldiers opening fire on a group of aid seekers, killing at least 21 and wounding another 150. Israeli officials are denying the reports. Also, Hamas said later in the day on Thursday that it had presented a new ceasefire proposal to mediators and the Israeli government. There may be more to say about this tomorrow, but the initial reaction from Israel was not promising.
According to POLITICO, the Biden administration has privately conveyed to the Israeli government what sort of military operation it would be prepared to countenance in southern Gaza’s Rafah region. US officials, the story goes, want the IDF to adopt “a plan more akin to counterterrorism operations than all-out war,” or in other words more targeted killing and less indiscriminate violence. Although this report is based on anonymous sources it rings true, inasmuch as it’s basically restating the administration’s desire for the IDF to shift to a “lower intensity” phase in their campaign. The administration pushed for that shift a few weeks after October 7, it pushed for it before the IDF went into Khan Younis, and it’s pushed for it publicly ahead of the Rafah assault. Each time, Israeli leaders have insisted that a shift is right around the corner before doing whatever they wanted, with full US support. Whatever the IDF is planning, POLITICO’s sources suggest it’s not going to happen anytime soon because there’s no indication that they’re making any preparations for it.
The Biden administration on Thursday blacklisted three more Israeli settlers and, in a new development, two West Bank settler outposts. Both outposts have, according to the US State Department, been used as “bases” for settler attacks on Palestinian villages and on Israeli activists. This is definitely an escalation in the administration’s anti-settlement project and will likely raise new howls of outrage from the settler movement, but it’s still probably not enough to actually impact the Israeli government’s settlement policy. On a somewhat related note, ABC News reported on Thursday that Israeli officials are complaining that US weapons shipments are taking longer to arrive than they were immediately after October 7. US officials deny that this is true or that it reflects any sort of policy change, but it seems noteworthy.
Elsewhere, as expected Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas named economic adviser Mohammad Mustafa as the PA’s new prime minister on Thursday. Abbas is aiming to demonstrate to the US and Israeli governments that he’s “reforming” the PA to make it suitable for postwar administration in Gaza and, potentially, to lead a Palestinian state. Mustafa has been involved in past Gazan reconstruction efforts so he has a connection with Hamas that could come into play down the road.
IRAQ
The Iraqi government has officially banned the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) following an Iraqi-Turkish “security meeting” in Baghdad. The Turkish government has been leaning on the Iraqis to take this step for some time now. Iraqi security forces will likely start collaborating with their Turkish counterparts in the latter’s anti-PKK operations in northern Iraq, though whether that will really have a significant impact on the PKK remains to be seen.
YEMEN
A new report from the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti says that Yemen’s Houthi movement is claiming to have acquired a hypersonic missile of some sort. If true, one obvious source for the device would be Russia, which definitely has hypersonic missiles and enough of a grudge against the US to consider supporting the Houthis. Iran also insists that it has developed a hypersonic missile and the connection there is well-established. But there’s no confirmation that this report is true and probably can’t be any confirmation unless/until the Houthis actually use such a device. If they do have a hypersonic missile that could allow them to seriously threaten US and other Western warships currently patrolling the Red Sea region in addition to the commercial ships they’ve been attacking.
ASIA
PAKISTAN
At Jacobin, Pakistani academic Ayyaz Mallick argues that last month’s parliamentary election stripped away any pretense of genuine Pakistani democracy:
The machinations of 2024 are in line with tendencies that matured in 2017–18, when a previous round of military-manipulated elections brought Khan to power. Khan’s personality and government from 2018 to 2022 served to temporarily absorb social discontent and perpetuate an otherwise moribund ruling bloc.
But Khan, who offered the last semblance of popular support for the military-centered ruling bloc, fell out with the latter in 2022. Consequently, the recent elections saw military interference reach qualitatively new heights — this time to keep Khan out of power.
On election night, there was much consternation and humor on internet platforms when the vote-counting results on electronic media stopped updating. One Urdu columnist caustically declared: “You are not alone; the Election Commission is also waiting for results,” obviously meaning “from the military.”
If the 2018 elections served as a dress rehearsal, in 2024, any sartorial pretensions have been dropped completely. The emperor stands well and truly naked.
CHINA
At World Politics Review, Michael Swaine says that mixed messaging from the Biden administration could be complicating US-Chinese relations:
Achieving [a stable bilateral relationship] requires each nation to match its formal statements clearly and reliably with its actual behavior—in other words, to avoid hypocrisy—with regard to what each side regards as its vital interests, and to do so consistently over time. This in turn requires both sides reaching a mutual understanding of what their vital interests are, the meaningful assurances regarding them that each desires, and what would constitute violations of those assurances and, hence, threats to the concerned party’s vital interests.
Unfortunately, despite some initial efforts, neither Washington nor Beijing has thus far met these requirements. Perhaps the most prominent example of this failure involves what began as the “Four Noes and One No Intention,” but which Beijing now calls the “Five Noes.” These reportedly affirm that the United States: does not seek a new Cold War with China; does not aim to change China’s political system; is not revitalizing its alliances to counter China; does not support Taiwan’s independence; and does not seek a conflict with China.
According to the Chinese, U.S. President Joe Biden has repeatedly conveyed the Five Noes to Chinese President Xi Jinping, beginning at their virtual meeting in November 2021, then again at their 2022 Bali summit and most recently at their summit held in San Francisco in November 2023. The Chinese similarly insist that other senior U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have also uttered the five points in private meetings with their Chinese counterparts. However, no public U.S. readouts of those meetings have confirmed this. At most, Biden and U.S. officials have occasionally made public statements that echo several, but not all, of the five points. But these statements have been made outside of the context of senior-level meetings with Chinese officials.
AFRICA
SENEGAL
Senegalese authorities on Thursday reportedly released opposition presidential candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye and his main backer, Ousmane Sonko, from prison on Thursday, a little over a week after parliament passed an amnesty law that was pushed by incumbent President Macky Sall. Sonko is a popular opposition figure who was seen as a viable presidential candidate himself until he was barred from politics over a defamation conviction last year. Faye has not been disqualified from politics, despite his own legal challenges, and may now be able to stand in Senegal’s March 24 presidential election.
IVORY COAST
Large swathes of West and Central Africa experienced serious internet disruptions on Thursday due to some sort of malfunction of undersea cables. The heaviest outages appear to have been reported in Ivory Coast but the disruptions spread pretty widely. The cause of the malfunction remains unknown.
NIGER
The Nigerian government on Thursday opened its border with Niger, which it had closed as part of an Economic Community of West African States sanctions package imposed in the wake of last July’s Nigerien coup. ECOWAS lifted those sanctions last month and the Nigerian government has been slowly reengaging with Niger since then—by, for example, resuming electricity shipments to Niger earlier this month.
SOMALIA
Al-Shabab fighters attacked the SYL Hotel in Mogadishu late Thursday evening, engaging in a firefight with police as they arrived on scene. At time of writing this assault appeared to be ongoing and there’s been no indication yet as to any casualties.
EUROPE
Governments across Europe are reporting an uptick in attempted terrorist attacks, possibly linked to the IDF’s ongoing decimation of Gaza:
In one previously unreported investigation last December, police in Austria and Bosnia arrested two separate groups of Afghan and Syrian refugees who carried arms and ammunition, including Kalashnikov assault rifles and pistols.
Investigators found pictures of Jewish and Israeli targets in Europe on some of the suspects’ mobile phones, which they said suggested they were motivated by Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza.
This followed the arrest late last year of a group of Tajik nationals suspected of planning attacks on the Cologne Cathedral in Germany and St. Stephen’s Cathedral in Vienna around Christmas. Both churches fill with hundreds of visitors for the holiday season.
Then, on Monday, Italian authorities said they had detained three Palestinians suspected of being members of the Al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade, designated as a terror group by the U.S. and the European Union. The three were preparing to attack civilian and military targets in Europe, the Italian National Police said.
RUSSIA
There are a few items of note:
Russian voters (at least some of them) will begin voting on Friday in that country’s three-day presidential election. I don’t see much reason to belabor the discussion here: Vladimir Putin will “win,” which I put in quotes because the word erroneously implies that this is some sort of real contest. There are three other candidates on the ballot but none could accurately be described as representative of a genuine opposition party and none are any threat to Putin’s reelection.
Ukrainian and Russian officials are painting different pictures of the situation in two Russian provinces that were attacked by pro-Ukrainian militants earlier this week. Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence service is claiming that Russia’s Belgorod and Kursk oblasts are now “active combat” zones, while Belgorod governor Vyachslav Gladkov is insisting that Russian security forces have driven the attackers out of the province. Kursk governor Roman Starovoit, on the other hand, suggested via Telegram on Thursday that fighting in his province may be continuing. At least two people have been killed in Belgorod so far.
According to Foreign Policy the Russian military has deployed tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. The Russian government announced its intention to do this back in June but it’s taken a while to prepare the necessary facilities for storing the munitions. The aim, I guess, is to try to intimidate NATO, though putting these weapons in Belarus is no more threatening to NATO than stationing them in, say, Kaliningrad, as Russia has probably done though it retains a bit of strategic ambiguity there. Putin has mused in the past about using tactical nukes in Ukraine and in fact did so again earlier this week, but there’s no indication he’s seriously considered the idea and if he did he could just as easily fire them from Russia as he could from Belarus.
The Russian government on Thursday blacklisted 227 US nationals, including US government personnel, journalists, and academics. All will sadly have to cancel their plans to visit the Museum of Soviet Arcade Machines (look it up). American Prestige listeners may hear a bit more about this story in tomorrow’s news update.
HUNGARY
If the US-Hungary relationship was not already in tatters (it was), a speech by the US ambassador in Budapest on Thursday may have marked a real point of no return:
The US ambassador to Hungary has said Washington will act in response to Budapest’s “dangerously unhinged anti-American messaging” and “expanding relationship with Russia”.
In a landmark speech in Budapest on Thursday, David Pressman took direct aim at the controversial foreign policy of Hungary’s longtime prime minister, Viktor Orbán, while also accusing the Hungarian government of rampant corruption and undermining independent institutions.
“This speech is about a longtime friend and ally saying and doing things that undermine trust and friendship,” Pressman said, referring to Hungary. “We cannot ignore it when the speaker of Hungary’s national assembly asserts that Putin’s war in Ukraine is actually ‘led by the United States’.
“We can neither understand nor accept the prime minister identifying the United States as a ‘top adversary’ of our ally Hungary. Or his assertion that the United States government is trying to overthrow the Hungarian government – literally, to ‘defeat’ him.”
The ambassador added: “While the Orbán government may want to wait out the United States government, the United States will certainly not wait out the Orbán administration. While Hungary waits, we will act.”
I have to think there’s a pretty good chance that Pressman will be kicked out of the country for this, though beyond that I don’t know what the repercussions might be. There are a number of long-standing grievances in this relationship, but this recent escalation in tension has a lot to do with Orbán visiting Donald Trump in Florida last week and openly rooting for Trump to win November’s presidential election. I have no idea what Pressman means by “we will act”—the Biden administration has sanctioned Hungary in the past, but Hungary’s NATO membership probably limits the extent to which Washington can treat Orbán as an adversary.
AMERICAS
HAITI
Despite the fact that a number of Haitian political parties have rejected it, the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) bloc insisted on Thursday that its plan to replace outgoing Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry with an appointed “presidential council” is still progressing. Indeed, according to CARICOM most of the political parties offered representation on the council have already submitted the names of their chosen delegates—one, the Pitit Desalin party, is still refusing to participate. Unrest in Port-au-Prince, which subsided after Henry announced his resignation on Monday, appears to be picking up again on Thursday, with reports of several attacks by Haitian gangs around the city. Gang kingpin Jimmy Cherizier issued an audio recording on Thursday in which he appeared to threaten the family members of any politician who participates in the CARICOM transition plan.
UNITED STATES
Finally, at FOREVER WARS Spencer Ackerman bits a fond adieu to the Joe Biden who finally ended the war in Afghanistan:
It’s important to acknowledge the errors of the Biden withdrawal. For starters, the administration has admitted only about 90,000 Afghans to the United States, out of a post-2021 refugee population estimated at 1.6 million, prioritizing those who worked for the Americans. Biden also violated the withdrawal timetable that had been agreed to. Then, as the Taliban was taking power, a US drone strike incinerated 10 civilians, including seven children. Biden later put an asterisk on the departure by reserving the right to keep bombing Afghanistan, and the US seized billions of dollars of sovereign Afghan wealth.
Biden never offered a moral indictment of the war. But he recognized that it had become contrary to US interests, and he stuck with that assessment. “I was not going to extend this forever war, and I was not extending a forever exit,” he said. It was more than an overdue policy decision; it was an indication of Biden’s own growth.
But the Biden who withdrew from Afghanistan is not the one people will remember. They will remember the one who materially aided what the International Court of Justice (ICJ) called plausibly genocidal actions by Israel.
The October 7 Hamas massacre returned Biden to his September 11 form. His insistence on unconditional solidarity with Israel ignores the stranglehold that Israel has had on Gaza since 2007, let alone its illegal 50-year occupation of the West Bank or its emergent apartheid rule. The ghost of that earlier, wiser Biden seemed to briefly reappear when, in Tel Aviv 10 days after the Hamas attack, he urged Israel to avoid the United States’ post-9/11 “mistakes” and not let itself be “consumed” by rage. But rather than signaling a shift, Biden’s words inaugurated a pattern of willful blindness.