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TODAY IN HISTORY
March 12, 1930: Mahatma Gandhi leads a 24 day march covering more than 240 miles from the Sabarmati Ashram in Gujarat to the village of Dandi, known as the “Salt March” or the “Dandi March.” Gandhi’s aim was to protest the British monopoly on salt production, so he and his followers manufactured their own salt at Dandi after arriving there on April 6, in violation of the 1882 British Salt Act. The march was a landmark event in both the conception of non-violent protest and the Indian independence movement.
March 12, 1938: Nazi Germany occupies Austria in an event known as the Anschluss. Uniting Austria and Germany was one of the primary tenets of the Nazi Party and the most important component of its Heim ins Reich project to incorporate all ethnic Germans into a “Greater Germany.” The Nazi occupation, which was welcomed by many Austrians, rendered irrelevant a planned referendum on unification that Austrian Chancellor Kurt Schuschnigg had scheduled for the following day.
MIDDLE EAST
LEBANON
The Israeli military (IDF) bombed downtown Beirut again on Thursday, including a strike on a makeshift displaced persons encampment that killed at least 12 people. According to Lebanese officials the IDF has now killed at least 687 people since the resumption of its war against Hezbollah last week.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The IDF also bombed a displaced persons encampment in Gaza city’s al-Ansar district overnight. The airstrike sparked a fire among the tents and left a number of people without even meager shelter, but there’s no report of any casualties as yet.
The Israeli government has dropped its legal case against five soldiers accused of raping a Palestinian prisoner in the IDF’s Sde Teiman detention facility, perhaps best known as the site of a riot in defense of the right to (allegedly) rape Palestinian prisoners back in July 2024 that was sparked by this very incident. There is still one open case related to this story, against the former chief IDF lawyer who publicly leaked a video of the alleged rape. Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli officials have expressed deep outrage over that leak, but not over the alleged rape.
IRAQ
Airstrikes reportedly hit the headquarters of the Popular Mobilization Force militia in western Iraq’s Anbar province on Thursday, killing at least 30 people and wounding “dozens” more. Another airstrike killed at least two and possibly more PMF militia fighters in Iraq’s Kirkuk province on Thursday. It’s unclear which PMF faction or factions use the facility that was targeted. The US military and IDF have periodically targeted PMF positions across Iraq since the war started but this is easily the deadliest single day of those attacks so far.
Later on Thursday the US military reported that one of its refueling planes had crashed in western Iraq after an apparent midair collision with another aircraft. There’s no word yet as to casualties. The Pentagon is insisting that this was not the result of anti-aircraft fire but the militia-affiliated “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” umbrella group is claiming credit for downing the plane.
An apparent militia attack on a military base in Iraq’s Erbil province killed at least one French soldier and left six people wounded. French President Emmanuel Macron announced the death on Friday morning. The facility houses French forces ostensibly involved in a counterterrorism training program with Kurdish security forces. A similar Italian base also came under attack on Thursday but there were no casualties in that incident as far as I know.
IRAN
I feel like it’s been a few days since we caught up with the casualty figures around the Iran war, so let’s start off with those. Al Jazeera’s tracker puts the death toll in Iran itself at 1348, with at least 17 people killed across the Gulf Arab states, 26 in Iraq, 15 in Israel, and at least seven US service members. Many of these figures may already be out of date or will be out of date by the time anyone reads this. The United Nations refugee agency estimated on Thursday that US and Israeli attacks have displaced some 3.2 million people inside Iran, most out of Tehran and other urban centers heading toward more remote parts of the country. There has been some movement of refugees out of the country but I am unaware of any estimates as to how many and I think it’s reasonable to assume that nearly all of the displaced are still in Iran.
New Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei delivered his first public remarks since taking that post on Thursday, or rather Iranian media delivered it for him since it was apparently a written statement only. That’s not going to do very much to quiet speculation about the extent of the wounds he suffered in the airstrike that killed his father and predecessor, Ali Khamenei, early in the conflict. Nevertheless, the younger Khamenei’s statement was about what you would expect. Essentially he called for revenge against the US and Israel and for maintaining the Iranian blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. He also advised the Gulf states to close down any US military facilities on their territory and talked about the possibility of opening “additional fronts” in the war, though without getting into specifics. The fact that the Houthi movement in Yemen has not yet involved itself in the war certainly leaves the Red Sea as one potential new front but beyond that I don’t know.
In other items:
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed early Friday (local time) to have caused “significant damage” to the USS Abraham Lincoln in a missile and drone attack. The US military is denying the IRGC’s claim and there’s definitely no independent confirmation of a successful attack so I would treat this skeptically. CBS News reported on Thursday evening that the US Navy had opened fire on an Iranian vessel that was approaching the Lincoln but that incident apparently took place sometime earlier in the week (the report didn’t say exactly when). The condition of that Iranian vessel is unknown.
The tenor of Khamenei’s statement was certainly not that of a defeated party. Neither, it must be said, was a Wednesday social media post from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that laid out three conditions for ending the war: “recognizing Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations, and firm [international] guarantees against future aggression.” The US isn’t going to pay reparations and there’s really no guarantee that the Iranians could believe at this point, so it doesn’t seem like Pezeshkian was bending over backwards to find a way out of the conflict anytime soon.
Iranian forces attacked at least six cargo vessels in the Persian Gulf on Thursday, including two oil tankers in Iraqi waters. One person was killed on one of those tankers and the Iraqi government closed down its oil ports altogether after the incident. While it’s still unclear how heavily the Iranians have mined or will mine the Strait of Hormuz those Iraqi attacks did apparently involve makeshift sea drones which adds another wrinkle to this maritime crisis. Oil prices shot up through the day, with most blends now either above or very close to $100 per barrel. It would appear that efforts to manipulate the oil market, whether via Donald Trump’s cryptic remarks to the press or splashy but ultimately ineffectual released of international oil reserves, are no longer having much effect. Instead Trump has decided to try bragging about high oil prices, noting via social media on Thursday that “the United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money.” I don’t know about anybody else but I’m going to need him to clarify who “we” is there.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry said on Thursday that it is asking ships to “coordinate with the Iranian navy when passing through [the strait] so that maritime security is maintained.” While this may in part be intended as a message to the rest of the world that Iran isn’t being unreasonable in its control of the strait it also sounds a bit like they’re bragging about said control.
Another apparent Iranian strike on Oman, this time on its seaport at Salalah on Wednesday, reportedly prompted Pezeshkian to pledge an investigation to Omani Sultan Haithem bin Tariq Al Said. The Iranians have largely spared Oman from the retaliation they’ve inflicted on the other Gulf Arab states, though there have been a couple of strikes on Oman that seem to have caused some embarrassment in Tehran. Oman has been neutral in this conflict and critical of the US and Israeli position, and if there is going to be a negotiated end to the war at some point it is likely that Omani officials will be involves in that process on some level.
The IDF said on Thursday that it was attacking checkpoints linked to the IRGC’s Basij paramilitary wing in Tehran. Those checkpoints may be meant to interrupt any public demonstrations against the Iranian government and destroying them could in theory aid anyone interested in demonstrating, but there’s no sign that the Tehran public is ready en masse to march out into the streets amid the airstrikes and the acid rain and overthrow the government.
CNN and a few other outlets have been reporting on Iran’s use of cluster munitions as a method of overwhelming Israeli air defense systems. They seem to be turning to these weapons in lieu of large barrages of missiles that are costlier to the Iranians and would risk depleting their stockpiles too rapidly (and that might not be as effective as this tactic). With these munitions even when Israeli interceptors destroy Iranian missiles their warheads can still distribute explosive bomblets that are much more difficult for the Israelis to target. Using cluster munitions is an indiscriminate tactic and that’s why over 100 countries are party to the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions banning their use. Neither Iran nor Israel (nor the United States, for that matter) are among those countries.
The Financial Times reports on the US military’s use of artificial intelligence to generate target lists far more massive than anything human beings could work up. The use of AI, pioneered by the IDF in Gaza, is one reason why US forces have kept up a fairly intensive pace of bombing across Iran over the past two weeks. That pace means that the occasional school is going to get bombed, but the death of Iranian children is a price the Pentagon and Palantir are apparently willing to pay. Actually maybe “occasional” is the wrong word—the Iranian Red Crescent has identified over 20,000 “non-military” targets hit by US and Israeli forces since the war started, including 17,353 that could be characterized as residential.
Wired has a piece examining the Iran-affiliated hacker group “Handala,” which has suddenly gained notoriety for carrying out a cyberattack against a US medical tech firm. It’s still unclear why they picked that firm (the Michigan-based company Stryker) but it may be as simple as finding a security flaw that they could exploit regardless of where it was.
ASIA
PAKISTAN
“Three Pakistani government officials” have told Reuters that the Chinese government has been mediating between the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan and that mediation—which included a personal “knock it off” message from Chinese President Xi Jinping to Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif—has reduced the intensity of their border conflict. The fighting hasn’t completely ended but Pakistani airstrikes have stopped (at least for the time being) and clashes on the ground have, as Reuters put it, “tapered off.” There’s still no indication of any negotiations on ending the conflict altogether.
NEPAL
Nepalese election results confirm a landslide victory for future Prime Minister Balendra Shah’s Rastriya Swatantra Party. Official results give RSP 182 seats in the 275 seat House of Representatives, just two shy of a two-thirds supermajority. Nepal’s two formerly dominant parties finished well back, with the Nepali Congress winning 38 seats and the Communist Party of Nepal UML taking 25.
NORTH KOREA
A Chinese passenger train arrived in Pyongyang on Thursday, which would be unremarkable except for the fact that it’s the first time that’s happened in about six years. The two countries shut down cross-border train service in 2020 due to Covid. North Korea has already resumed train travel to and from Russia as relations between those two countries blossomed over Pyongyang’s assistance in the Russian war effort.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The Sudanese military carried out a drone strike near the town of Adikong in West Darfur state on Thursday, killing at least 13 people and wounding at least 23 more. Adikong is located near the Sudanese side of the Adré border crossing from Chad and there were Chadian nationals reportedly among the casualties. Sudanese military officials claim they were targeting smugglers moving fuel from Chad into Darfur, presumably on behalf of the Rapid Support Forces militant group. It’s unclear how many of the smugglers, if any, were among the casualties.
As I’ve tried to capture in the newsletter it has been a harrowing week in Sudan in terms of drone activity. The UN is reporting that more than 200 civilians have been killed in Sudanese drone strikes just since March 4. At least 152 people have been killed by drones just in West Kordofan state alone. Both the military and the RSF seem to be relying more and more on indiscriminate drone strikes in lieu of clashes between their ground forces, with civilians bearing the brunt of it.
SOUTH SUDAN
The New Humanitarian outlines the intensifying conflict in South Sudan:
Clashes between the [South Sudan People’s Defense Forces] and [Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in Opposition] forces were not uncommon during the peace process, but troubles accelerated last year, especially after Kiir arrested SPLM-IO leader and First Vice President Riek Machar, dismantling the peace deal.
A UN inquiry report last month said the detention of Machar undermined core power-sharing arrangements, triggering political uncertainty and armed clashes on a scale that has not been witnessed in the country for the past decade.
The report accused the government, which is supported by Ugandan troops, of using incendiary bombs in airstrikes on opposition-affiliated areas in seven states. It said internal displacement rose by almost 40% last year to 3.2 million people.
Some analysts who spoke to The New Humanitarian warned the conflict could expand and merge with the war in Sudan. Others predicted more localised clashes and confrontations, pointing to the weakness of both the SPLM-IO and the SPLM.
Few, however, said the peace deal that ostensibly ended the last civil war still appears viable. “If you look at all the indicators, there is no other description other than a full-scale war,” said Ter Manyang Gatwech, a human rights defender.
SOMALIA
Reports in US and Swedish media this week have suggested that the Israeli government is nearing an agreement with the government of Somaliland to position an IDF base in that secessionist region. Unsurprisingly this has received a negative response from the government of Somalia, with State Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Omar telling Al Jazeera on Thursday that “any discussions about foreign military facilities on Somali territory that take place” without the involvement and approval of the Somali federal government “simply have no legal standing.” Somaliland officials obviously disagree, and while they have not confirmed the reports about a possible IDF base they have also refused to rule out the possibility. Israel recognized Somaliland’s independence back in January, becoming the first and so far only country to do so.
EUROPE
BELARUS
International Criminal Court prosecutors have opened an investigation into accusations that Belarusian officials have “actual or perceived” political opponents for, among other things, deportation. While Belarus is not an ICC member, the Lithuanian government is apparently alleging that some of these possible crimes happened on its soil and so it brought the case before the court.
UKRAINE
The Russian Defense Ministry has accused the Ukrainian military of killing eight medics and wounding ten other people in a drone strike on Tuesday in a Russian-held part of Donetsk oblast. There’s been no comment from Ukrainian officials.
AMERICAS
UNITED STATES
Finally, according to ProPublica’s Hannah Allam the US bombing of the Shajareh Tayyebeh elementary school on the first day of the Iran war may be related to a Trump administration push to make the US military more “lethal”—to civilians:
[Wes] Bryant, a former special operations targeting specialist, said he couldn’t help but think of what-ifs as he monitored fallout from the Feb. 28 attack.
Just over a year ago, he had been a senior adviser in an ambitious new Defense Department program aimed at reducing civilian harm during operations. Finally, Bryant said, the military was getting serious about reforms. He worked out of a newly opened Civilian Protection Center of Excellence, where his supervisor was a veteran strike-team targeter who had served as a United Nations war crimes investigator.
Today, that momentum is gone. Bryant was forced out of government in cuts last spring. The civilian protection mission was dissolved as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made “lethality” a top priority. And the world has witnessed a tragedy in Minab that, if U.S. responsibility is confirmed, would be the most civilians killed by the military in a single attack in decades.
Dismantling the fledgling harm-reduction effort, defense analysts say, is among several ways the Trump administration has reorganized national security around two principles: more aggression, less accountability.