World roundup: June 6 2024
Stories from Yemen, India, Sudan, and elsewhere
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TODAY IN HISTORY
June 6, 1982: The Israeli military invades Lebanon, beginning a new phase in the Lebanese Civil War that’s also known as the Lebanon War.
June 6, 1944: The Allied invasion of France begins with the “D-Day” amphibious landings in Normandy, the largest amphibious military operation in history. Despite heavy losses, the Allies were able to establish five beachheads and by mid-June (though it took longer than planned) they secured a small but crucial foothold in northern France. From there they began the final phase of World War II on its Western Front.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The Israeli military (IDF) conducted an airstrike early Thursday morning that hit a United Nations-run school in central Gaza’s Nuseirat refugee camp, killing at least 37 people according to the most recent count I’ve seen. The IDF has acknowledged striking the school, which had become a makeshift displaced persons shelter, but insists that it hit a “Hamas compound” that was allegedly “embedded” within the facility. It’s claiming that most of the casualties were Hamas personnel, while sources in Gaza are insisting that many or most of them were civilians.
As with the attack that killed dozens of people in Tell al-Sultan last month, we’re left with a situation where even accepting the IDF’s story at face value one is forced to conclude that it very well may have committed a war crime. If there was a Hamas compound in the facility that does make it a potential target, but the principle of proportionality means that attacking it was only lawful if the military benefit to be gained exceeded the risk posed to civilians. That’s an intentional subjective standard but it means that any Israeli claim that they were ipso facto justified in striking this target is at best overstated. Also similar to the Tell al-Sultan attack, the Israelis used US-made munitions in carrying out this strike. But I’m sure you’d already guessed that.
In other items:
According to Palestinian health officials, the IDF killed at least three people and wounded another 13 in another raid in the West Bank on Thursday, this time in the city of Jenin. The target seems to have been a Palestinian Islamic Jihad unit but it’s unclear how many of the casualties can be considered combatants.
Sticking with the West Bank for a moment, the Biden administration on Thursday blacklisted members of the “Lions’ Den” militant group that operates out of the city of Nablus. It sanctioned them under the same authority it’s used to sanction Israeli settlers for “undermining peace, security and stability” in the West Bank. Those sanctions have been supremely ineffective, by the by, to some extent because the administration refuses to impose them on the Israeli politicians and institutions that underpin the settler movement.
AFP reports that the Biden administration “is waging a diplomatic offensive to persuade Hamas to accept a ceasefire plan laid out by President Joe Biden, working with the United Nations and world leaders favorable to the Palestinians.” It released a joint statement from Biden and 16 other “world leaders” on Thursday calling on Hamas to say “yes,” ignoring the uncomfortable fact that the other main actor here, the Israeli government, hasn’t really said “yes” either and apparently opposes the UN Security Council resolution the US is circulating in support of Biden’s proposal.
It’s now been reported that Hamas is circulating a memo to other Palestinian factions in which it says there is a significant discrepancy between what Biden said last week and what’s actually in the proposal they’ve seen, and it appears to involve Biden’s assertion that the initial six week ceasefire could be extended indefinitely as long as negotiations continued on the terms of a second phase. They seem to feel that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu only intends to accept the first phase and then resume the carnage.
Subscribers to Seymour Hersh’s newsletter may have seen his piece today alleging that Biden’s speech on Friday was based on essentially nothing, that he had no agreement in place from Israel as he claimed and that there was no firm proposal on the table. Make of that what you will.
UNICEF estimated on Thursday that 90 percent of the children in Gaza are not eating enough food to support “their healthy growth and development.” This is not breaking news but I do think it’s important to reinforce both the extent of the humanitarian suffering and the fact that we are now past the point where that suffering can just be alleviated by bringing more aid into the territory or even by a ceasefire. Those things are essential, of course, but this is now at the point where many of these children are likely to suffer long-term and possibly lifelong health consequences even if the crisis magically ends tomorrow.
The Spanish government says it intends to join South Africa’s case against Israel at the International Court of Justice. It is the 12th government (and fourth in Europe, after Belgium, Turkey, and Ireland) to either file to join the case or express an intent to do so.
The IDF is reportedly transferring most of the prisoners in its Sde Teiman detention facility in Israel’s Negev Desert, which had been the subject of a CNN investigative report last month into its torture of detainees. The Israeli Supreme Court held a hearing on Wednesday based on that report and others like it, at which a state attorney revealed plans to transfer some 1200 detainees (around 700 of whom have already been transferred) to a facility in the West Bank. It’s reasonable to assume that the torture will continue there, in a facility that is under the West Bank’s military rule and thus may not be subject to oversight.
SYRIA
Kurdish officials in eastern Syria announced on Thursday that the local elections they were planning to hold next week will now be postponed until at least August. Last week, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan threatened a new invasion of northeastern Syria if the elections went forward as planned and the US government had also signaled disapproval of the plan. The latter was probably more instrumental in forcing the postponement.
LEBANON
A Hezbollah drone strike killed at least one Israeli soldier near the Lebanon-Israel border on Thursday. Another nine IDF soldiers were wounded in the attack.
YEMEN
According to AFP, a Houthi attack along the largely frozen front line of Yemen’s civil war triggered fighting that left at least 18 people dead—13 Houthis, five pro-government fighters—on Wednesday. The clashes reportedly took place across parts of Taiz and neighboring Lahij provinces in Yemen’s southwest. Since the combatants entered a ceasefire in April 2022 (which has since technically lapsed), the situation along the front has remained mostly quiet, although periodic outbursts like this have taken place.
Elsewhere, the Houthis released video this week of a purportedly new, solid fueled missile they’re using called the “Palestine.” Superficially at least it appears to resemble hypersonic missiles developed by Iran, like the “Fattah,” though the Houthis are claiming (with Iranian support) to have developed the “Palestine” themselves. They also say they used it in a successful attack on the Israeli port city of Eilat earlier this week, though there’s no confirmation of that. The Houthis are also saying they carried out “successful” drone strikes on two ships near the Israeli port of Haifa in coordination with “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” militias, but again there’s no confirmation of that claim and the Israeli government is denying it.
The Biden administration is reportedly trying to undermine parts of a Yemen peace plan that it previously supported. In particular, it wants to block a payment of $1.5 billion from Saudi Arabia to the Houthis to pay the salaries of civil servants in northern Yemen, which is a key part of the UN-negotiated peace roadmap that was unveiled in December. The administration has also convinced the Saudis to have the Central Bank of Yemen suspend operations in northern Yemen, which could impact the Houthis’ ability to access foreign currency. The Saudis are now more interested in ending the Yemeni Civil War than the US is, which is a complete role reversal from where they were at when Joe Biden took office.
ASIA
INDIA
Responsible Statecraft’s Sarang Shidore doesn’t foresee Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent political struggles having much effect on India’s foreign policy:
After this election, the BJP will be significantly constrained in passing more such legislation and will have to negotiate with its more moderate allies to get things done.
However, though Modi’s decade-long primacy in Indian politics was upended this week, the Prime Minister remains the most popular leader in India, and in pole position in domestic politics. The impact, however, on foreign policy, will be minimal. For one, the BJP’s key coalition partners are led by wheeling-dealing regional bosses with little interest in foreign policy. Modi, his charismatic foreign minister S. Jaishankar, and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval will continue to drive India’s foreign policy with no real constraints from domestic allies.
Second, India’s foreign policy is largely determined by its structural position in the region and the world, and the sense of deep suspicion toward China is shared across its domestic political spectrum. India would ideally like to see a diminished global role for China and increased influence for itself among the leaders of the Global South. Its successful hosting of the G20 summit in 2023 was an attempt to achieve both objectives.
SOUTH KOREA
A North Korean defectors activist group launched another round of propaganda leaflet-laden balloons from South Korea into North Korea on Thursday. I mention this because Pyonyang has threatened to send another round of filth-laden balloons into South Korea in response, so residents of South Korea can probably look forward to that in the next few days.
OCEANIA
NEW CALEDONIA
Jacobin’s Nathanaëlle Soler argues that the recent unrest in New Caledonia reflects a failure of both French colonialists and traditional pro-independence groups to respond to Indigenous youth:
Many people today are denouncing the political incompetence of both the anti-independentists and the pro-independence parties who have cut themselves off from Kanak youth. In fact, many of the young Kanak rioters have never experienced the events of the 1980s, and no longer recognize themselves in the pro-independence or customary Kanak authorities.
Often unqualified and unemployed, they are disparaged by the political authorities and their elders alike, who tend to regard them as delinquents. The riots partly fuel this discourse: out-of-control rioters who looted the alcohol cellars of supermarkets, and who became heavily intoxicated, no longer listened to their elders and committed acts of extreme violence. But the riots also reveal the emergence of a new generation of pro-independence leaders who are closer to these young people.
In fact, the anger of these young people, fueled by the colonial disorder of alcoholism, is an expression of their dispossession and yearning for social justice. The [Coordination Cell for Field Actions, a new pro-independence movement established last November] was able to mobilize these energies, through an activist approach that was lacking in the traditional pro-independence movement. This was demonstrated in the months leading up to the riots, punctuated by demonstrations in which CCAT proved its ability to organize and mobilize Kanak youth.
AFRICA
SUDAN
Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighters reportedly massacred more than 100 people in a village in Sudan’s Gezira state on Wednesday. An activist group in Gezira called the “Wad Madani Resistance Committee” is claiming that the RSF entered the village and looted most of its homes, displacing many of those it didn’t kill. Villagers appealed to Sudanese military forces based at the city of El Manaqil for assistance but apparently received none. The RSF is claiming that its fighters were responding to a Sudanese military attack that killed eight of its members but has not, as far as I can tell, directly addressed the massacre accusation.
SOUTH AFRICA
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa confirmed on Thursday that his African National Congress is aiming to form a national unity government following its electoral drubbing last week. Ramaphosa told reporters that this is “the best option to move our country forward.” It’s unclear whether any of the parties that might participate in such an arrangement agree with that sentiment. It’s certainly the best option to try to insulate the ANC from a further erosion in public support.
EUROPE
NORTH MACEDONIA
North Macedonian President Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova tapped VMRO-DPMNE party leader Hristijan Mickoski to form a new government on Thursday. The “Your Macedonia” coalition, led by VMRO-DPMNE, won 58 seats in last month’s parliamentary election, just three shy of a majority in the 120 seat Assembly. Mickoski now says he’s secured a coalition agreement with two smaller parties that collectively control another 20 seats. That coalition has already elected one of its members as parliament speaker, demonstrating that the parties are already functioning as a unit. By law Mickoski has 20 days to form a government but indications are he should be able to roll it out much sooner than that.
NETHERLANDS
Dutch voters headed to the polls on Thursday to begin the happiest season in the Free World™, European parliamentary election season. If exit polling in this race is reliable, the outcome was somewhat mixed. The far right Party for Freedom (PVV) is projected to have won seven seats, a big increase from the zero it won in 2019, but the left of center GreenLeft–Labour alliance is projected to edge it out with eight seats. Polling ahead of the vote had consistently put PVV in the lead. Exit polling can easily be wrong, of course, so I wouldn’t put much stock in these early reports. But with right-wing populist parties expected to do well across the board in these elections it would be noteworthy if left-ish parties are able to hold their ground.
AMERICAS
UNITED STATES
Benjamin Netanyahu will speak to the US Congress on July 24. You may recall that a few days ago the speech was announced for June 13, only for Netanyahu’s office to reject those reports because June 13 happens to coincide with a Jewish holiday. My only regret is that he can’t give this speech tomorrow, and every day after.
Finally, over at The New Republic Michael Brenes and William Hartung explore the dangers of the emerging military-artificial intelligence nexus:
There are strong reasons to think that emerging A.I. military technologies could not only fail to pay off in superior capabilities but actually make the world a more dangerous place.
On the performance front, a military system built around complex software will be vulnerable to malfunctions or cyberattacks. As longtime military analyst Michael Klare has noted, many experts fear that “AI-enabled systems may fail in unpredictable ways, causing unintended human slaughter or uncontrolled escalation.” The poor performance of small drones built by U.S. tech start-ups in the war in Ukraine could be a cautionary tale about setting unrealistic expectations about the next round of purported miracle systems. An investigation by The Wall Street Journal found that “most small drones from U.S. startups have failed to perform in combat, dashing companies’ hopes that a badge of being battle-tested would bring the startups sales and attention.”
The second risk is that these technologies will dramatically reduce the “kill chain”—the time from the identification of a target to its destruction. This will put enormous pressure on human operators of these new weapons and could easily lead to the development of robotic systems that operate without human intervention. While the Pentagon has so far ruled out such an approach, the realities of operating these systems in real-life situations may override that restriction.
All of the above suggests that we should proceed with caution before rushing to center the U.S. arsenal on A.I.-driven systems and other emerging technologies. But there is money to be made in going full speed ahead, and that could undermine the U.S. government’s ability to take a deliberate approach to fielding next-generation systems.