World roundup: June 24 2025
Stories from Iran, Myanmar, Romania, and elsewhere
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TODAY IN HISTORY
June 24, 1812: Napoleon leads his Grande Armée into Russia. Despite capturing Moscow in September, this was easily Napoleon’s greatest military catastrophe. The Russian army simply stayed out of Napoleon’s way until he was forced to withdraw, at which point his army ran smack into a Russian winter for which they were evidently unprepared. Estimates of the size of Napoleon’s army and thus of the scale of the catastrophe vary, but they range from around 450,000 men to around 685,000, with estimates of the number who returned from the expedition ranging from an optimistic 120,000 to as low as 70,000. The disaster was not the end of Napoleon’s empire, but it was a big step on the road toward its end.
June 24, 1932: A joint civilian-military junta led by the People’s Party forces Siamese King Prajadhipok to adopt constitutional reforms. The coup, known as the “Siamese Revolution,” is one of the seminal events in the history of modern Thailand, as it replaced the country’s centuries-old absolute monarchy with a constitutional monarchy. The legacy of the coup continues to be debated to the present day, with some arguing that the transition to constitutional monarchy would have happened anyway.
June 24, 1948: Soviet authorities blockade the western portion of Berlin, setting off one of the most serious crises of the early Cold War. Two days later, the US, UK, and others launched the Berlin Airlift to keep the city supplied. Over the next several months the Airlift operation dropped thousands of tons of supplies into West Berlin daily, rendering the Soviet blockade largely toothless. The Soviets lifted the blockade in May 1949, though the US and UK continued conducting airlifts through September ostensibly out of concern that the blockade could be reimposed. The blockade/airlift became a seminal event in the drawing up of Cold War lines in Europe.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
It would appear that Sunday’s terrorist attack on an Orthodox church outside of Damascus may not have been the work of Islamic State. A group called Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah has claimed responsibility for the bombing, which killed at least 25 people at latest count, justifying it as a response to some sort of “provocation.” Members of Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah broke away from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham back in February over HTS (and by then Syrian) leader Ahmed al-Sharaa’s supposed softness toward Syrian religious minorities. It’s allegedly carried out attacks against Alawites and Shiʿa already but Sunday’s incident would mark its first attack against Christians. Very little is known for certain about the group and it’s possible that it may now be aligned with IS or even acting as an IS cutout, or it may be operating independently.
LEBANON
The Israeli military (IDF) killed at least three people in a drone strike on southern Lebanon’s Nabatieh province on Tuesday, according to the Lebanese Heath Ministry. Israeli officials don’t seem to have commented but I’m sure they would insist that all three were linked to Hezbollah in some fashion. The IDF continues to bomb southern Lebanon on a nearly daily basis, despite its November ceasefire.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The IDF killed over 80 people across Gaza on Tuesday, including at least 51 in incidents near aid sites. Israeli officials say they’re “reviewing” those incidents. The “Gaza Humanitarian Foundation” has been appealing for more support to continue its important work of kettling Palestinians on the IDF’s behalf and, thankfully, the Trump administration came forward with $30 million on Tuesday. It’s the first direct outlay from the US to the GHF.
More alarming is new data suggesting that these daily casualty figures are vastly underestimating the scale of the IDF’s carnage. A report compiled by Israeli professor Yaakov Garb based on IDF estimates reportedly puts the current population of Gaza at around 1.85 million people. Given pre-October 7 2023 estimates that put the territory’s population at around 2.2 million, that leaves some 350,000 unaccounted. It’s hard to be exact about this stuff and I can’t seem to find the actual report to read, but the official Gaza death toll just topped 56,000, so that’s a pretty massive gap to try to explain if this dataset is even in the general vicinity of being accurate.
Speaking of reports, a new European Union assessment finds “indications” that Israel’s conduct in Gaza has violated the human rights terms of the EU-Israel Association Agreement. That pact governs a range of interactions between Israel and the bloc including trade, travel, and research collaboration. I would dwell longer on the potential implications of this finding if I thought there was a snowball’s chance in hell that the EU would actually suspend the agreement or otherwise fundamentally alter its relationship with Israel, but there is not. If there’s any outcome from this report it will likely be sanctioning a few particularly troublesome settlers or something similarly meaningless.
You should also file this under “I’ll believe it when I see it,” but The New York Times’ Patrick Kingsley is reporting that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, riding high from his apparently-concluded (we’ll get to that) war on Iran, might finally be ready to stop the slaughter in Gaza. He writes that “Israeli representatives at the Gaza cease-fire talks have now been given a broader mandate to negotiate, according to a senior member of Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition.” Ending the campaign in Gaza would still likely collapse said coalition, but Netanyahu’s polling may be strong enough now that he could feel confident about emerging from the ensuing snap election as PM (or, you know, not). There’s some speculation that he’d be prepared to reach a deal with Hamas—one that includes the long-term ceasefire that the group continues to demand—in late July, which would allow him to coast through the Knesset’s three month summer recess before having to face any political fallout. To be clear I would give this analysis pretty close to zero credence. I mention the NYT piece mostly because of the reporting that Netanyahu has empowered his negotiators, which is worth noting assuming that it’s true.
IRAQ
The attempted drone strike on Iraq’s Camp Taji military base overnight was apparently just one of multiple such incidents that took place across several facilities. There are no reports of casualties but at least two military radar installations were damaged. There’s also no indication as to responsibility but I think any connection to events in and involving Iran can probably be ruled out barring any new revelations.
IRAN
Speaking of events involving Iran, Donald Trump’s ceasefire—whose announcement reportedly surprised even his own advisers—has, somewhat improbably, taken effect. This was not a smooth process, which I guess is to be expected when the president of the United States makes major foreign policy announcements via social media with no indication that any of the parties affected by those announcements are actually aware of what he’s announcing.
In particular there seems to have been one small Iranian missile attack that launched after the staged ceasefire was to have taken effect, which prompted the Israeli government to threaten or possibly attempt massive retaliation. A frustrated Trump then lashed out at both parties via social media and later to reporters on the White House lawn, saying that Iran had “violated [the ceasefire], but Israel violated it too” and adding that he was “not happy with Israel” before concluding that “we basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing.” Yes, the president said a swear on TV. His expression of irritation, especially toward Israel, seems to have done the trick as the exchanges of fire then stopped and that’s where things remain.
My inclination is to say that this ceasefire, rocky though its adoption might have been, will probably hang on at least for a while. It’s up to Israel, which has total clearance from the United States to escalate or deescalate as it wishes, and after 12 days of fighting the utility of further Israeli strikes is diminishing, along with the IDF’s air defense capabilities. On both scores it might behoove the Israelis to push the pause button, knowing full well that they can start attacking Iran again whenever they feel like it and have full US backing. Iranian officials are already talking about rebuilding, which indicates that they think the bombing has stopped; Israeli officials are reopening the country’s airspace, indicating that they also think it’s over; and Trump really did seem irritated at the Israelis for violating his ceasefire/Nobel pitch.
So if the “12 Day War” is over, who won? The correct answer is probably “nobody,” but if you squint just right it could also look like “everybody.” The Israeli government gets to say that it decimated Iran’s nuclear program and weakened the Iranian state. Trump gets to claim that he “obliterated” the three Iranian nuclear sites the US military bombed and successfully wrangled a ceasefire to prove that he is indeed a “peacemaker.” The Iranian government gets to say that it inflicted heavy damage on Israel and forced it into a ceasefire unwillingly.
In reality Israel may not have decimated Iran’s nuclear program. Trump’s strikes may not have obliterated those sites (at least that’s what the US intelligence community is saying). And the notion that Iran forced the Israelis into an unwelcome peace seems like a bit of a stretch, though just surviving an assault by two nuclear powers that would both like to collapse the Iranian government is in itself a victory on some level. The stated US and Israeli goal was to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons and instead they may very well have convinced the Iranians that they have no future without nukes. This conflict killed scores of people for quite possibly no reason at all beyond maybe boosting Netanyahu’s poll numbers.
What happens next? Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has indicated that he’s prepared to resume nuclear talks with the Trump administration. One assumes that the Iranians will approach a resumption of negotiations with considerably more skepticism than they’d exhibited prior to the war, but who knows?
ASIA
MYANMAR
Foreign Policy’s Andrew Nachemson reports that formerly hostile Myanmar rebel groups are finding common cause in their war against the country’s ruling junta:
Before the 2021 military coup in Myanmar, Nai Kyi San’s only firsthand combat experience was fighting against another rebel group: the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA). “I don’t think about that now because based on the current situation, they are our allies, and our cooperation is very important,” he said.
Nai Kyi San—now a regional commander of the New Mon State Party (NMSP)—was 19 years old during that territorial skirmish, in 1988. Now his black hair is giving way to gray, and the veteran rebel commander has a different enemy in his sights: Myanmar’s military junta.
The NMSP began fighting for the political autonomy of the Mon ethnic minority in 1959. The group signed a cease-fire with Myanmar’s military government in 1995 in exchange for official recognition of its territory in southeastern Myanmar, including a cluster of Mon villages in Kayin state that Foreign Policy visited in February.
The presence of Mon villages in Kayin state and Karen villages in Mon state is a source of tension between the NMSP and KNLA, particularly when it comes to local governance and tax collection, with clashes taking place as recently as 2019. But today, the two groups launch operations against the Myanmar military together, with the KNLA providing strategic advice, specialist training, and even weapons to the NMSP.
CHINA
In the wake of the Israel-Iran ceasefire, Donald Trump returned to social media (really he never leaves it) on Tuesday to announce, abruptly, that “China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran,” adding that “hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the U.S., also.” The immediate reaction to this declaration was that Trump had decided to lift US sanctions on Iranian oil sales to China or at least to relax enforcement of those sanctions, which would be a pretty big policy shift. As it happens, the administration later clarified that what he meant was that there was no danger of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz anymore due to the ceasefire. That’s not really what he said, but I suppose anything is possible.
AFRICA
SUDAN
According to the World Health Organization, at least 40 people were killed on Saturday when a hospital in Sudan’s West Kordofan state came under attack. There’s no confirmation as to responsibility but Sudan’s Emergency Lawyers activist group is claiming that this was an army drone strike. The hospital is positioned near an active front line between the army and the Rapid Support Forces militant group.
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
Unspecified “Sudanese armed groups” are also believed to have been responsible for an attack that left one United Nations peacekeeper dead in the northern CAR on Friday. The UN reported the attack on Tuesday, making this the third time UN personnel have been attacked in the CAR this year.
EUROPE
ROMANIA
The Romanian parliament confirmed new Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan and his cabinet on Monday. The vote was overwhelming—301-9 in favor of Bolojan. He’s leading a coalition that includes his National Liberal Party alongside the Save Romania Union party, the UDMR party, and Romania’s Social Democratic Party (PSD). The PSD is the largest member in that coalition and initially balked at allowing Bolojan to serve as PM, but he won the party over by agreeing that he will resign in 2027 in favor of a PSD prime minister.
FRANCE
According to Reuters, the Trump administration recently tried to extend a helping hand to a French fellow traveler only to be “rebuffed”:
A U.S. State Department delegation met with senior officials from France's National Rally (RN) in late May, but their offer to publicly support figurehead Marine Le Pen after a court barred her from office was rebuffed by the far-right party, two sources said.
Le Pen, one of the most prominent figures of the European far right, was a frontrunner for the 2027 French presidential election before a court in March banned her from the contest after she was convicted of embezzling EU funds.
U.S. President Donald Trump and other right-wing leaders were quick to rally behind her, alleging political censorship.
The U.S. delegation that visited Paris was led by Samuel Samson, an official at the State Department's Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor (DRL). He is part of an influx of young conservatives rising up the ranks of Trump's administration.
Samson met with senior RN officials but Le Pen and her popular No. 2, party president Jordan Bardella, were not present, the two sources said. The aim, one of the sources said, was to discuss ways the Trump administration could offer public support to Le Pen, who wants to overturn her conviction.
This is grossly inappropriate on several levels, but I think the main takeaway should be that Le Pen and company didn’t turn the administration’s help down for moral or ethical reasons, they did so because accepting Donald Trump’s help would have been politically toxic. European leaders may be eager to kiss Trump’s ass—often to a nauseating degree—but in several European states Trump doesn’t seem to have very much popular appeal.
AMERICAS
UNITED STATES
Finally, Jacobin’s Meagan Day discusses Silicon Valley’s incorporation into the far right’s political project, with one firm clearly leading the way:
Of these, Palantir is the Trump administration’s darling. The administration has showered it with federal contracts, hefty enough to elicit a letter from Democratic lawmakers asking the company to explain and justify itself. Of particular concern are Palantir’s apparent moves to fulfill Trump’s request that the company create a unified database on American citizens, consolidating information currently scattered across agencies into a single dossier index that critics worry the Trump administration will use for surveillance and political repression.
Palantir is also signed on to create an “ImmigrationOS” system for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which will track immigrants’ movements and facilitate their arrest, detention, and deportation. And the Trump administration has increased Palantir’s Project Maven funding. Palantir’s work on Project Maven has accelerated the militarization of AI, enabling autonomous drone surveillance systems and algorithmic targeting. Under Trump, the administration is pushing to expand these capabilities into real-time battlefield AI tools, including giving Palantir an additional $174 million contract “to house a battlefield intelligence system inside a big truck” called the Tactical Intelligence Targeting Access Node, or Titan.
For many years, Palantir has received surprisingly little public scrutiny, disproportionate to its status as “the West’s AI arms dealer.” Israel’s war in Gaza brought more negative press than usual; Palantir sold Israel tools that analyze massive surveillance and intelligence data to help the Israeli military rapidly generate lists of targets for airstrikes in Gaza, resulting in countless civilian deaths. When confronted by a Palestinian woman who accused Palantir of developing software used to kill civilians, Karp said flippantly, “She believes I’m evil. I believe she’s an unwitting product of an evil force, Hamas.”
Palantir’s profile has risen further now that Trump is tapping it to carry out its most frightening designs, from domestic mass surveillance to automated war. Much of the American public has reeled in disgust. The stock market, for its part, has responded to Palantir’s shady federal contracts by rewarding the company handsomely. Palantir has the best-performing stock of 2025, increasing 140 percent since Trump took office.
Only the dead have seen an end to war. --Plato