World roundup: June 22-23 2024
Stories from Lebanon, South Africa, Russia, and elsewhere
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THIS WEEKEND IN HISTORY
June 22, 1527: A force from the Javanese Demak Sultanate under its commander, Fatahillah, liberates the port of Sunda Kelapa from the Portuguese and renames it “Jayakarta.” I wonder whatever happened to that place.
June 22, 1593: Local Ottoman forces from the Eyalet of Bosnia are routed by a Habsburg army at the Battle of Sisak (which is located in central Croatia today). This was one of the first serious Ottoman defeats in the Balkans, and the Ottomans’ desire for revenge contributed to the 1593-1606 Long War against the Habsburgs (there are some historians who consider Sisak part of that war). That war ended indecisively, which was typical for Ottoman-Habsburg conflicts until the late 17th century.
June 23, 1757: A British East India Company army defeats a combined Bengali-French army at the Battle of Palashi (Plassey). EIC officials managed to turn Mir Jafar, the field commander of the Bengali army, to their side by promising to elevate him to the Bengali throne. This proved key to securing victory even though the EIC went into the battle heavily outnumbered. After the battle the British commander, Robert Clive, installed Mir Jafar in place of the ousted Siraj ud-Daulah as the Nawab of Bengal and effectively annexed Bengal into the East India Company’s territory. Plassey thus became one of the key battles in establishing British control over the Indian subcontinent.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
At NLW Sidecar, historian Ilan Pappé argues that the Israeli government’s response to the October 7 attacks may have hastened the end of Zionism altogether:
Hamas’s assault of October 7 can be likened to an earthquake that strikes an old building. The cracks were already beginning to show, but they are now visible in its very foundations. More than 120 years since its inception, could the Zionist project in Palestine – the idea of imposing a Jewish state on an Arab, Muslim and Middle Eastern country – be facing the prospect of collapse? Historically, a plethora of factors can cause a state to capsize. It can result from constant attacks by neighbouring countries or from chronic civil war. It can follow the breakdown of public institutions, which become incapable of providing services to citizens. Often it begins as a slow process of disintegration that gathers momentum and then, in a short period of time, brings down structures that once appeared solid and steadfast.
The difficulty lies in spotting the early indicators. Here, I will argue that these are clearer than ever in the case of Israel. We are witnessing a historical process – or, more accurately, the beginnings of one – that is likely to culminate in the downfall of Zionism. And, if my diagnosis is correct, then we are also entering a particularly dangerous conjuncture. For once Israel realizes the magnitude of the crisis, it will unleash ferocious and uninhibited force to try to contain it, as did the South African apartheid regime during its final days.
One could argue that Israel has already unleashed ferocious and uninhibited force, though of course things could always get worse. The Israeli military (IDF) killed at least 39 Palestinians in airstrikes across northern Gaza on Saturday, one day after it killed at least 25 Palestinians in the supposed “safe zone” of al-Mawasi in southern Gaza. Saturday’s death toll appears to have resulted from the IDF’s attempt to kill Hamas’s Gaza City commander, Raed Saad. There’s no indication as to whether Saad was among the dead. The IDF killed at least eight Palestinians on Sunday in a strike on a United Nations Relief and Works Agency facility in Gaza City.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told an Israeli TV station on Sunday that “the intense phase of the fighting against Hamas is about to end.” It’s unclear what that actually means—it doesn’t mean an end to the IDF’s operation, clearly, as Netanyahu himself said—but it could signal a wrap up of the current major operation in Rafah (the one the Biden administration still believes never happened). Netanyahu’s “plan,” if that’s the right word, for the near future involves an indefinite Israeli military occupation of Gaza paired with some sort of “civilian administration” whose composition and precise function remains a mystery.
SYRIA
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights is claiming that an airstrike in eastern Syria’s Deir Ezzor province late Friday killed at least three “pro-Iran fighters,” at least two of whom were Iraqi. There’s no indication who was responsible, but the US-led “anti-Islamic State” coalition disavowed any involvement and the strike seems incongruous with the Biden administration’s present concern about the possibility of a wider Middle Eastern war. That leaves the IDF, which probably has attacked targets in eastern Syria in the past and won’t acknowledge the strike either way.
LEBANON
On the subject of that wider war, which would fulfill Pappé’s prediction of the Israeli government unleashing “ferocious and uninhibited force” to try to forestall the collapse of the Zionist project, another Israeli airstrike reportedly killed a senior official in the armed wing of Lebanon’s Islamic Group (al-Jamaʿah al-Islamiyah) political party on Saturday. The IDF acknowledged this attack, which took place in eastern Lebanon, and said the official, Ayman Ghotmeh, was its target.
With tension along the Israel-Lebanon border now higher than it’s been at any time since October 7, the Biden administration is welcoming Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to Washington. Mostly I suspect this invitation is meant to embarrass Netanyahu in retaliation for his recent efforts to embarrass the administration, but to the extent that Gallant is coming to talk about anything in particular it’s likely that Lebanon will be the main topic of discussion.
US officials are warning that an Israeli war with Hezbollah could easily escalate into something much bigger, and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah claims he’s turning away volunteers from across the Middle East because “we are overwhelmed by the numbers we have.” Make of that what you will, but it’s going to be hard for the Iranian-backed “Axis of Resistance” to sit out an Israel-Hezbollah war, given Hezbollah’s centrality to that network (elements of the “Axis,” specifically the Houthis in Yemen and Iraqi militias, already say they’re jointly carrying out attacks against Israel related to Gaza). And given the experience that these groups have had in fighting rebels in Syria, Islamic State in Iraq, and the Yemeni government in Yemen, they could pose a significant threat for Israel if they’re fully mobilized.
Not for nothing, The Telegraph reported over the weekend, based on ever-reliable anonymous sources, that Hezbollah has been amassing weapons at Rafic Hariri International Airport in Beirut. The IDF, which is a prime candidate for having leaked the story to The Telegraph in the first place, then solemnly noted that it would “have no choice” but to attack the airport in the event of a war. In other words, the IDF is planning to attack the airport and feels that the likelihood of war is now high enough that it wanted to get its justification out there in a timely fashion.
IRAN
New polling suggests that Iran’s June 28 presidential election is going to be heading to a runoff. If that holds it will be the first time that’s happened since 2005. The survey, from the Iranian Students Polling Agency, puts hardliner Saeed Jalili in front with 26.2 percent support, followed by reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian at 19.8 percent and conservative parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf at 19 percent. It also finds a high level of undecided voters and an even higher level of unconcerned voters—turnout is likely to be around the 45 percent level, which would continue a string of relatively low turnout elections and probably hurts Pezeshkian’s chances.
Elsewhere, Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid al-Zayani visited Tehran over the weekend for the Asian Cooperation Dialogue summit, and on Sunday he reportedly had a meeting with acting Iranian FM Ali Bagheri in which they discussed the re-normalization of Iranian-Bahraini relations. Bahrain cut off relations with Iran in 2016 in support of Saudi Arabia, and with the Saudis having reopened their own relations with Iran that rationale no longer applies. The Bahraini government has also long accused Tehran of fomenting unrest among Bahrain’s Shiʿa majority but nevertheless it seems to have passed a message to Iranian officials via Russia earlier this month indicating that it would be open to restoring ties.
ASIA
TAIWAN
According to The Wall Street Journal, the Taiwanese government’s desire to expand its military’s drone capabilities is running into an inconvenient complication:
As drones transform warfare in Ukraine and Gaza, Taiwan is accelerating efforts to build a fleet of them for its defenses.
But the island democracy has a problem: The overwhelming majority of the types of small, inexpensive drones that are having the greatest impact on battlefields are made in China, the very country that poses a threat to it.
The importance of affordable drones has been demonstrated most vividly in Ukraine, where the Ukrainian army has deployed waves of them to spy on enemy movements and deliver explosives, helping it to hold off Russia’s much larger and better-equipped army.
Taiwan could find itself in a similarly lopsided conflict. China, which fields the world’s largest navy, claims the self-governed island as part of its territory and hasn’t ruled out the use of force to take control of it.
Ukraine has been making heavy use of those Chinese-made drones but unsurprisingly that’s not something Taiwanese officials feel comfortable doing. Taiwan’s domestic manufacturing capability doesn’t seem to be up to the task, and an attempt to source drone components from Israel fizzled out because of Gaza. The US military’s new “Replicator” project, which seeks to complement the Pentagon’s sophisticated—which means expensive and prone to breaking down—drone fleet with a much larger array of much simpler vehicles, could benefit Taiwan down the road but not in the near future.
SOUTH KOREA
The US Navy dispatched the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt to South Korea over the weekend ahead of another round of joint military exercises that are scheduled for later this month and will also involve Japan. I mention this mostly because the North Korean government often conducts some sort of weapons test or tests in response to these kinds of high profile deployments and any major US-South Korean military drills, so you can probably expect some of that in the coming days.
AFRICA
NIGER
The Nigerien military is claiming that its forces killed “an influential member of the Islamic State” during an operation in southwestern Niger’s Tillabéri region on Friday, one day after another anti-jihadist operation in that same province left at least nine insurgents dead. Tillabéri has been heavily affected by jihadist violence, and especially by IS’s regional affiliate, in recent years.
NIGERIA
Unspecified gunmen killed at least seven people and abducted at least 100 in an attack on a village in northern Nigeria’s Katsina state on Saturday night. The incident is consistent with the “bandit” attacks that have plagued that region for several years and often involve looting as well as kidnapping for ransom.
SOUTH AFRICA
The AP reports that South Africa’s new governing coalition has reignited some old tensions:
In a country where racial segregation was once brutally enforced, South Africa’s new coalition government has brought a Black president and a white opposition leader together in an image of unity.
Yet the power-sharing agreement sealed a week ago between President Cyril Ramaphosa’s African National Congress party and the Democratic Alliance, one of South Africa’s few white-led parties, has unwittingly renewed some racial rifts.
Many Black South Africans have expressed discomfort with a white-led party being back in power, even in a coalition. The country is haunted by the apartheid system of white minority rule that ended 30 years ago but is still felt by millions among the Black majority who were ruthlessly oppressed by a white government and remain affected by unresolved issues of poverty and inequality.
South Africa is now faced with the likelihood of seeing more white people in senior government positions than ever since apartheid ended. White people make up around 7% of the country’s population of 62 million.
The DA traces its origins back to the Progressive Party, which was founded in opposition to legal apartheid back in 1959, and it has tried to argue that its political agenda is broader than simply representing South Africa’s white population. But its reputation is still that of a white-dominated party and it’s unsurprising that its participation in government is causing some concern.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
There was an outbreak of violence in Russia’s Dagestan republic on Sunday that’s left over 22 people dead by my count, including six of the attackers. This story is still developing but involves attacks on Orthodox churches, synagogues, and police outposts in the Dagestani cities of Makhachkala and Derbent, according to Russian authorities. According to at least one Russian source synagogues in both cities were attacked and set on fire, apparently irreparably. Dagestan is a predominantly Muslim region that has experienced violence from Islamist and jihadist groups in the past amid the broader insurgency across Russia’s northern Caucasus region.
UKRAINE
Having received permission to use US and other Western munitions to attack some targets inside Russia, the Ukrainian government is still asking for more:
As bombs dropped by Russian warplanes tore through residential districts in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv this weekend, killing at least four people and injuring dozens more, President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday called on allies to further ease restrictions on the use of Western weapons so that his forces could use them against Russian air bases.
The Biden administration’s recent decision to allow Ukraine to use certain weapons to hit forces inside Russia has had an immediate impact, helping Ukraine thwart Moscow’s offensive north of Kharkiv and slowing the bombardment of the city, Ukraine’s second-largest, which is only about 25 miles from the border.
But the lifting of U.S. restrictions does not apply to the use of Army Tactical Missile Systems, known as ATACMS, some of which have a range of around 190 miles. Those longer-range weapons would be needed to hit air bases deep in Russian territory that are used by the bombers. Kyiv has been left to rely largely on its own expanding fleet of domestically produced drones to go after those bases.
US officials have been insisting that any limits they’ve placed on the use of US-made arms are not as restrictive as the Ukrainian government claims. But clearly they’re not on the same page as Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials.
NORTH MACEDONIA
The North Macedonian parliament on Sunday confirmed a new government headed by VMRO-DPMNE party leader Hristijan Mickoski. The conservative VMRO-DPMNE won last month’s election and then negotiated a coalition deal with the predominantly Albanian VLEN alliance and the left-ish For Our Macedonia party. They received 77 confirmation votes out of 99 votes cast (21 legislators apparently decided to skip the session). Mickoski has said he intends to further North Macedonia’s European Union accession, but his party opposes deals the previous government made with the governments of Greece and Bulgaria that allowed that accession process to advance. If he backtracks on one or both of those agreements it could lead either or both of those countries to restore their previous blocks on North Macedonian EU membership.
AMERICAS
HAITI
Kenyan officials, speaking anonymously, are claiming that the long-awaited (?) international security intervention in Haiti will begin on Tuesday with the first deployment of Kenyan forces to the Caribbean nation. Kenya is slated to lead this intervention with backing from the US and involvement from a handful of other countries, but the mission has been delayed by legal challenges in Kenya, the political turmoil in Haiti, and most recently by apparent logistical concerns. Most of Port-au-Prince remains in the hands of insurgents, which has had a devastating humanitarian impact and also makes it nearly impossible for Haiti’s interim government to organize new elections.
UNITED STATES
Finally, TomDispatch’s John Berger calls on the Biden administration to intensify its climate program:
It could hardly be clearer that the world is already in the throes of a climate catastrophe. That means it’s high time for the U.S. to declare a national climate emergency to help focus us all on the disaster at hand. (Or as famed English poet Samuel Johnson put it centuries ago, “When a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.”)
Such a declaration of a climate emergency is long overdue. Some 40 other nations have already done so, including 2,356 jurisdictions and local governments representing more than a billion people. Of course, a declaration alone will hardly be enough. As the world’s wealthiest and most powerful nation, and the one that historically has contributed the most legacy greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, the U.S. needs to develop a coherent exit strategy from the stranglehold of fossil fuels, a strategy that could serve as an international example of a swift and thorough clean-energy transition. But at the moment, of course, this country remains the world’s largest producer and consumer of oil and natural gas and the third largest producer of coal — and should Donald Trump win in November, you can kiss any possible reductions in those figures goodbye for the foreseeable future. Sadly enough, however, though the Biden administration’s rhetoric of climate concern has been strong, in practice, this country has continued to cede true climate leadership to others.
Despite the laudable examples of smaller nations like Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Paraguay, and Costa Rica that are already at, or within a percentage point or two, of being 100% powered by clean, renewable energy, the world sorely needs the U.S. as a global role model. To make a rapid, far-reaching, and unrelenting break with our fossil-fuel dependency — 79% of the nation’s energy is now drawn from fossil fuels — a national mobilization would be needed, and it would have to be a genuine all-of-society effort.
I don't know if other people are having the same problem, but the WPR link didn't work for me.