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TODAY IN HISTORY
June 18, 1815: Napoleon’s revived imperial dreams run smack into British (with allies) and Prussian armies at the Battle of Waterloo. The French cause was arguably lost when Napoleon defeated the Prussians at the Battle of Ligny two days earlier, which despite the French victory ended with the intact Prussian army retreating in good order such that it was still available to reinforce the British army. At Waterloo, the British, under Duke of Wellington Arthur Wellesley, were able to hold on long enough for the Prussians to reach them and make a decisive attack that sent the French into retreat. Napoleon abdicated (well, re-abdicated) on June 22 and was forced once again into exile. This time he was sent not to nearby Elba but to distant (and considerably harder to escape) St. Helena, where he died on May 5, 1821.
June 18, 1954: Exiled army officer Carlos Castillo Armas invades Guatemala with 480 soldiers and the support of the US government, in the opening strike of the 1954 Guatemalan coup. Castillo Armas wound up in Honduras following the 1949 coup attempt against then-President Juan José Arévalo, at which point the CIA generously offered to put him on its payroll to the tune of $3000 per week. When the Eisenhower administration came to power in 1953 it decided that the current Guatemalan president, leftist Jacobo Árbenz, had to go in the name of Defeating Communism, and Castillo Armas emerged as the best candidate for the job. Although his invading force was quite small, a psychological warfare campaign by the US government is credited with demoralizing the Guatemalan army and eventually leaving Árbenz with no choice but to resign. Castillo Armas’s reign is noted for its brutality and corruption, which locked Guatemala onto the path toward its 1960-1996 civil war.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
Drop Site’s C.P. Ward reports on conditions in Israeli-occupied southern Syria:
Over the last year, the new military base has been established on a hill overlooking [the village of] Jubat Al-Khashab, where Al-Ali now lives. Residents are prohibited from approaching, and an Israeli drone whizzed into view within minutes of Drop Site photographing the base.
The Israeli military has razed over 110 acres of ancient forest that once stood on the site. Farmers have been prohibited from accessing their fields nearby, and local residents reported incidents of animals that entered the vicinity around the base being seized.
The site has also become the launch point for Israeli raids on Jubat Al-Khashab. On June 7, five young men were snatched from their home just outside the village. Four were reportedly released after several hours of questioning, but one remains unaccounted for. A recent UN report, citing Syrian authorities, found that at least 250 Syrians have been arrested by Israel since 2024, with 50 still detained inside Israel.
The threat of being arrested and imprisoned in Israel—an illegal act under international law— hangs like a specter over Quneitra.
LEBANON
The Israeli government and its military (IDF) have done pretty much everything in their power over the past couple of days to make it clear that they are rejecting the US-Iran memorandum of understanding’s provisions regarding Lebanon. For starters, the IDF killed at least three people in southern Lebanon on Thursday, so clearly “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon” is out and that’s in the very first of the MoU’s 14 points.
The MoU’s next mention of Lebanon, in the same point, commits the US and Iran to “ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.” On that subject, the IDF published a map on Thursday delineating what Reuters called “an expanded military control zone” across the whole of southern Lebanon, while insisting that it will also continue to carry out attacks “beyond the security zone.” So much for territorial integrity and sovereignty, I guess.
“A senior Israeli official” described “stubborn negotiations” between the US and Israel over the occupation, which means we’re already at an inflection point as far as the MoU is concerned. Either the Trump administration will be willing to impose the kind of pressure needed to bring the Israeli government into compliance with the MoU or it won’t. Either the Iranian government will be willing to risk the rest of the MoU to insist on a genuine end to the conflict in Lebanon or it won’t. As I wrote yesterday this remains the biggest short term variable in the negotiating process.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The IDF killed at least three people in a drone strike in Gaza city on Thursday and at least one other person in a shooting incident in northern Gaza’s Beit Lahia area. Elsewhere, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar announced on Thursday that he’s cutting off contact with European Union foreign policy coordinator Kaja Kallas. Reports emerged last week that Kallas had compared the Israeli occupation in Gaza and the West Bank to South African apartheid during a meeting with Mexican officials last month.
IRAN
So after some uncertainty regarding the signing of the US-Iran MoU, the upshot was that the countries’ respective presidents, Donald Trump and Masoud Pezeshkian, put actual pen to actual paper on Wednesday. Trump, in fact, signed the MoU during a post-G7 summit banquet at Versailles, the symbolism of which I’m sure was lost on him. This somewhat hastily thrown together signing apparently obviates the need for the formal ceremony that was supposed to happen in Switzerland on Friday, but it appears as though the signing has been turned into a negotiating session instead—a formal kickoff to the MoU’s 60 days of talks that are supposed to resolve 47 years of US and Iranian grievances. It is unclear who will be attending, but the earlier plan for US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf to lead their delegations now sounds like it’s off and these will be lower level teams instead.
The signing did, as promised, cause the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The maritime journal Lloyd’s List reported that shipping companies were already sending vessels through the waterway on Thursday, though these appears to be ships that were stranded in the area by the strait’s closure rather than newly arriving vessels and it’s still expected to be some time before shipping activity even begins to approach prewar levels. In fact the central route through the strait remains closed due to the risk of mines, which in itself significantly reduces the waterway’s capacity. There are hundreds of ships stranded in the Persian Gulf and getting them out will presumably be the first order of business.
In terms of what’s in the MoU, if you haven’t read the document itself and/or get crosseyed when trying to decipher diplomatic speak then Al Jazeera has a decent summary of the main points. Iran gets immediate sanctions relief to sell oil along with the prospect of regaining its frozen assets (including, according to The Financial Times, a $6 billion pot in Qatar that will be used to purchase “American products”) and potentially a $300 billion reconstruction fund. Both countries pledge not to interfere in the other’s internal affairs, though that’s really only relevant for the US. Iran promises not to procure nuclear weapons but doesn’t commit to ending its nuclear program or even its uranium enrichment program. Indeed if you went down a list of the reasons that US officials gave for starting the war, like enrichment, the MoU either concedes or is silent on all of them. The main open question is, as I noted above, Lebanon.
ASIA
INDIA
The US military is changing the name of its Indo-Pacific Command back to what it used to be: Pacific Command. This is undoing, in Donald Trump’s second term, a change it made in Donald Trump’s first term. Why? Well, in part this seems to reflect a change in approach toward China—engaging with it rather than trying to surround and contain it. But Foreign Policy’s Derek Grossman argues that it also reflects a change in Trump’s attitude toward India:
More than anything else, the original INDOPACOM designation reflected Washington’s belief that India would play a central role in balancing China’s rise. The term “Indo-Pacific” was intended to elevate the strategic importance of the Indian Ocean, strengthen ties with New Delhi, and encourage greater cooperation among like-minded powers stretching from East Africa to the Western Pacific. The goal was to constrain Chinese influence across multiple theaters rather than only in East Asia.
Today, however, those assumptions no longer appear central to Trump’s foreign policy. Although India remains an important partner, Trump has repeatedly signaled that it no longer enjoys the privileged position it once held in U.S. strategic thinking. Since last summer, Trump has demonstrated a willingness to risk serious tensions with India in pursuit of other objectives. He was angered by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s refusal to support his Nobel Peace Prize aspirations following a four-day war between India and Pakistan, which Trump claimed to have helped resolve. Last year, his administration pressured India over purchases of sanctioned Russian oil and Trump expressed frustration over disagreements about a bilateral trade agreement. Last year, he reportedly canceled his participation in a planned Quad summit in India because of these frictions, bringing embarrassment to New Delhi.
Trump has further cultivated closer ties with Pakistan despite long-standing Indian concerns about Islamabad’s relationship with terrorist groups. Most notably, Trump has relied heavily on Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir as a key intermediary in U.S.-Iran diplomacy, elevating Islamabad’s importance at a time when relations with New Delhi have become increasingly strained.
AFRICA
SUDAN
Multiple governments formally notified the United Nations Human Rights Council of the possibly imminent Rapid Support Forces assault on the Sudanese city of El Obeid on Thursday. They stressed the risk that some 500,000 civilians could be subject to the same sort of genocidal atrocities to which the RSF subjected the population of Al Fashir when it seized that city back in October
NIGER
Jamaʿat Nusrat al-Islam wa’l-Muslimin fighters attacked Niamey’s Diori Hamani International Airport as well as the military airbase next door on Thursday, killing at least 11 soldiers and two civilians. The Nigerien Defense Ministry later claimed that security forces killed 22 jihadists and captured 20 more. Islamic State fighters attacked the same airport back in January. Authorities had reportedly started demolishing “shantytowns” near the airport amid claims that they pose a security risk.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
The AP reports on new indications that the DRC’s Ebola outbreak is still escalating out of control:
The Ebola outbreak in Congo and Uganda has claimed more than 200 lives in its first month and is the worst known outbreak at this stage, with up to 35,000 suspected potential contacts, Africa’s Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said on Thursday.
With 894 confirmed cases so far, the current outbreak is three times worse than a previous outbreak in Uganda in 2000, which had 281 cases at the same point, said Dr. Wessam Mankoula, a medical epidemiologist at Africa CDC.
The latest number of cases is believed to be higher because the outbreak was confirmed on May 15, weeks after it was suspected to have begun. The number of cases has increased 38% since last week and is now in 32 health zones across eastern Congo, said Mankoula.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
A Ukrainian drone strike sparked what appeared to be a pretty massive fire in a Moscow oil refinery on Thursday, spewing smoke into the air followed by black rain. I haven’t seen any reports of casualties from this strike, though other drone strikes in the Moscow area did injure at least 17 people, nor have I seen any reporting as to potential environmental and public health impacts. Ukrainian strikes on oil facilities in Russia and in occupied parts of Ukraine have begun to take a significant toll, reportedly forcing a number of gas stations to impose restrictions on fuel purchases.
ALBANIA
Jared Kushner’s desire to turn a pristine Albanian island into a resort continues to fuel considerable public opposition. Responsible Statecraft’s Eldar Mamedov looks at the “geopolitical ramifications” to this story:
What’s really important here is the possible geopolitical ramifications of this real estate project. During Trump’s first presidency, Kushner promoted the Abraham Accords – so-called normalization deals between Israel and Arab nations, including the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Netanyahu hailed those agreements as a great diplomatic triumph. Kushner and Netanyahu reportedly remain in close contact, even as Kushner negotiates with Iran on behalf of the Trump administration. Kushner’s investment firm, Affinity Partners, was explicitly created to deepen economic ties between Israel and the Arab world.
To understand the broader context, recall Israel’s classic “periphery strategy.” For decades, Tel Aviv has cultivated ties with non-Arab states on the edges of the Middle East — from the Caucasus to the Balkans to Africa — as a way to break its diplomatic isolation. Today, that strategy is alive and well. Israel has forged close relationships with Azerbaijan (a key energy partner and Israel’s intelligence foothold on Iran’s border), Serbia (which has significantly increased its arms imports from Tel Aviv), Romania (which announced it will move its embassy to Jerusalem), and now Albania.
AMERICAS
PERU
Keiko Fujimori appears to be on the verge of winning Peru’s presidential runoff, leading Roberto Sánchez 50.11 percent to 49.89 percent with just 0.62 percent of the vote still to be counted. In theory Sánchez could still emerge victorious, but most of those remaining votes are from expats and the Lima area, which both favor Fujimori.
COLOMBIA
The Wall Street Journal reports on worsening drone violence in Colombia:
CUBA
Al Jazeera reports on a coming economic adjustment in Cuba:
Cuba’s Communist Party has approved a raft of unprecedented free-market measures as part of an emergency economic package.
The package was submitted to the country’s National Assembly on Thursday, where it is all but assured to pass.
The plan would expand opportunities for private enterprise and create measures to attract additional foreign investment, including from Cubans abroad.
It could also set the stage for private real estate development on the Caribbean island and the transformation of state-owned businesses into private commercial ventures with shares and equity stakes. It would also allow private banks to enter Cuba’s once state-dominated finance sector.
It’s unclear whether Cuban leaders are doing this for purely economic reasons or to ward off further pressure from the United States. If the latter is a consideration, then there’s also a question as to whether the Trump administration is pushing this upheaval or if the Cuban government is just hoping to appease the administration.
UNITED STATES
The US military bombed another alleged drug boat in the eastern Pacific on Thursday, executing at least three people. As ever, it did not offer any evidence to support its claim that the boat was ferrying drugs.
Finally, NBC News reported earlier this week on the Trump administration’s costly efforts to speed up weapons manufacturing:
President Donald Trump is using his executive authority to force defense companies to quickly produce more weaponry as his administration presses lawmakers to pass additional defense spending to replenish stockpiles depleted during the U.S.-led war with Iran.
Trump quietly invoked the Defense Production Act last week to address rising concerns within his administration about the shortfall of munitions, according to a memo filed in the Federal Register on Tuesday.
“I hereby find that conditions exist which may pose a direct threat to the national defense or its preparedness programs,” Trump wrote in a June 11 memo to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Production constraints and supply chain concerns “may impair the ability of the United States to produce, sustain, and expand the availability of munitions, missiles, and equipment required for the national defense,” he wrote.
Hegseth was on Capitol Hill on Tuesday meeting with Senate Republicans about a $350 billion reconciliation package for additional Defense Department funding that the administration wants them to pass, specifically to replenish munitions.