TODAY IN HISTORY
June 12, 1898: Philippine rebel leader and dictator Emilio Aguinaldo proclaims Philippine independence with a declaration and a ceremony at his home south of Manila. This date is annually commemorated as Independence Day in the Philippines.
June 12, 1990: The Congress of People’s Deputies of Russia adopts the Declaration of State Sovereignty of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, basically proclaiming Russia’s independence from the Soviet Union although “independence” may not exactly be the right term for this particular situation. This date is annually commemorated in Russia as “Russia Day.”
MIDDLE EAST
IRAN
We appear to be on the brink of either a US-Iran ceasefire deal or another near-miss. Evidence for the former is starting to pile up, most recently via a social media statement from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif that mediators now have a “final, agreed upon text” for a “memorandum of understanding” between the two sides. For good measure he added that “peace has never been this close as it is now.” Earlier, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also hopped on social media to post that a deal “has never been closer,” which Donald Trump then shared because that’s how you do high level diplomacy now I guess.
If my tone suggests that I’m not taking this seriously it’s because I’m not, yet, though I concede things do appear to be further along than they’ve gotten in previous rounds of the “imminent agreement” cycle. But the deal isn’t done, and we even got a reminder of how precarious this situation on Friday morning, when a much angrier Trump took to social media to complain that reports in Iranian state media regarding the contents of the MoU had “NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing,” adding that the Iranians are “very dishonorable people to deal with. With them, there is no such thing as dealing in good faith.” Pot, kettle, etc. Trump was also upset at reports that the Iranians had fired drones at commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, something that they apparently did again overnight. It’s unclear if that later incident is going to interrupt the negotiations.
Iranian media has made claims about what’s in the memo. US officials have made claims about what’s in the memo. They’re obviously inclined to paint the most favorable picture possible for their side. No verifiable details have been released as yet and presumably won’t be unless/until there is an actual agreement. I don’t see much point in feverishly speculating about the terms until then, and that includes the question of whether or not Israel’s activities in Lebanon will be part of the ceasefire. Other details seem to be basically in line with previous draft MoUs—a 60 negotiating window for nuclear and regional issues, reopening the strait and lifting the US blockade in the meantime. The New York Times reported that US and Iranian delegations, led respectively by Vice President JD Vance and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, could travel to Switzerland for a signing ceremony if in fact the parties do reach an agreement.
