World roundup: July 8 2025
Stories from Israel-Palestine, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ukraine, and elsewhere
You’re reading the web version of Foreign Exchanges. If you’d like to get it delivered straight to your inbox, sign up today:
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Just a reminder that I will be taking several days off from the newsletter for our annual summer break starting Thursday, so tomorrow night’s roundup will be our last until Sunday, July 20.
TODAY IN HISTORY
July 8, 1497: A Portuguese armada sets sail under the command of Vasco da Gama bound for India. Da Gama’s completion of the route around Africa was the first direct European oceanic contact with India and stands alongside Columbus’s “discovery” of the Americas, for better or worse, as one of the milestones of the Age of Exploration.
July 8, 1709: A Russian army under the command of Tsar Peter I defeats a Swedish army commanded by Count Carl Gustav Rehnskiöld at the Battle of Poltava. This was the largest engagement of the 1700-1721 Great Northern War, pitting some 75,000 Russian soldiers against a Swedish force numbering around 30,000. It also proved to be a turning point in that conflict, as it effectively ended Swedish King Charles XII’s 1708-1709 invasion of Russia. Most of the Swedish army was forced to surrender, while Charles himself fled into the Ottoman Empire for protection. He spent several years there before eventually wearing out his welcome and being sent home.
July 8, 1853: A US naval expedition commanded by Commodore Matthew C. Perry arrives at Japan’s Edo (Tokyo) Bay. The “Perry Expedition” was intended to open diplomatic and commercial ties with several Indo-Pacific nations, but its main goal was to force the Japanese government to abandon its isolationism (at least with respect to the US). Perry’s threats to attack Edo had the desired effect and he was eventually permitted to carry out his main formal task, delivering a letter from US President Millard Fillmore to senior Japanese officials. He returned with a larger fleet in February 1854 and—again under threat of force—negotiated the Convention of Kanagawa, which opened the Japanese ports of Shimoda and Hakodate to US ships.
MIDDLE EAST
LEBANON
The Israeli military (IDF) killed at least two people and wounded three others in an airstrike near the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli on Tuesday, according to the Lebanese government. Israeli officials claimed that they were targeting a “key” Hamas official. This is the first IDF strike on northern Lebanon since it ostensibly agreed to a ceasefire with Hezbollah back in November. While the Israeli government has justified most of its myriad violations of that ceasefire by claiming that it was only responding to violations by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, to my knowledge there is no exception in the ceasefire agreement that permits the IDF to target alleged Hamas personnel on Lebanese soil—let alone on northern Lebanese soil.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The Qatari Foreign Ministry tried to chill talk of an imminent Gaza ceasefire on Tuesday, with spokesperson Majed al-Ansari saying that “we will need time” to reach an agreement. While Donald Trump, who was still hosting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on Tuesday, told reporters that he thinks that “things are going along very well” in Doha, there is no tangible indication of any actual progress in the negotiations so far. Improvised explosives killed at least five IDF soldiers and wounded two others in Gaza on Tuesday, which may raise public pressure on Netanyahu to reach a deal though he’s been pretty unresponsive to Israeli casualties thus far. Reuters is citing “Israeli officials” who seem to agree that it may take some time to reach a deal but also seem to think that the gaps between Israeli and Hamas demands are bridgeable.
At the extreme optimism end of the spectrum are Trump and his envoy, Steve Witkoff, who told reporters at the White House on Tuesday that “we’re in proximity talks now, and we had four issues, and now we’re down to one after two days of proximity talks.” Witkoff is supposed to be heading to Qatar to participate in the negotiations and suggested that a deal could be reached “by the end of this week.” Sky News is reporting that the one remaining issue has to do with the IDF’s disposition during the truce—Hamas wants it to withdraw to the same positions it occupied during the previous truce while the Israeli government is insisting that it retain control of the southern Rafah region in order to implement its plan to relocate displaced Palestinians there and potentially expel them from Gaza altogether. On the other main sticking points the two sides have reportedly agreed that most of the responsibility for distributing humanitarian aid under the truce will rest with international organizations and not the “Gaza Humanitarian Foundation,” and unofficial Trump envoy Bishara Bahbah has reportedly “assured” Hamas that Trump will not allow the Israelis to resume their military activity in Gaza after the initial 60 day truce runs out. If we can’t take Donald Trump at his word then what really is left in this world upon which we can rely?
For whatever it’s worth, Netanyahu categorically ruled out (and not for the first time) any prospect of Palestinian statehood or self-governance during his White House shindig on Monday evening. He opined that “the Palestinians should have all the powers to govern themselves, but none of the powers to threaten us. That means a sovereign power, like overall security, will always remain in our hands.” That’s not statehood and it’s not “the power to govern themselves,” but Netanyahu preempted that criticism by noting that he doesn’t “care.”
YEMEN
The apparent Houthi attack on the Greek-owned cargo ship Eternity C on Monday killed at least three people and wounded two others. The Houthis haven’t claimed responsibility for this attack yet but it took place one day after they attacked another cargo ship, the Magic Seas, in roughly the same area. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations monitoring center reported that the Eternity C was still under attack as of Tuesday morning.
IRAQ
At The New Arab, Giorgio Cafiero argues that the decision by Iraqi militias to stay out of the “12 Day War” reflects a shift in their interests:
When American B-2 Spirit bombers tore through Iraqi airspace en route to attack Iran’s underground uranium facility of Fordo, Kataib Hezbollah, one of the most powerful Iranian-aligned Shia militias, put out a notably muted statement. Rather than threatening retaliation, the group redirected its ire inward, condemning Baghdad for its failure to safeguard national airspace and warning that such lapses leave Iraq increasingly exposed and compromised.
“The American forces in Iraq paved the way for this assault by opening Iraqi airspace,” said the Tehran-backed organisation. “If it is said that we do not want Iraq to be a battleground, then it is incumbent upon us to restrain the role of foreign forces present on Iraqi soil and controlling its skies.”
Iraq’s pro-Iranian factions may still pledge ideological loyalty to the Islamic Republic, but, in practice, they are increasingly autonomous from Tehran. As these groups embed themselves deeper into Iraq’s political establishment — benefiting from Iraq’s state coffers and maintaining sprawling business networks — they have become less inclined to risk their gains by wading into regional conflicts.
With growing political clout and financial stakes tied to the stability of the Iraqi state, these actors now have far more to lose from resorting to violence.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants on Tuesday for Afghan Taliban Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada and Afghan Chief Justice Abdul Hakim Haqqani for “the crime against humanity of persecution...on gender grounds.” Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government has essentially criminalized the presence of women in public, “depriving them of fundamental rights and freedoms” in the court’s parlance. The Afghan government dismissed the issuance of the warrants as a “nonsense announcement” that would have no impact on its “strong commitment and dedication” to its interpretation of Islamic law.
MYANMAR
According to Reuters, the Chinese government is threatening to stop buying “rare earth” minerals from the Kachin Independence Army rebel faction in an attempt to pressure the group to step back from its ongoing conflict with Myanmar’s military junta. KIA-controlled mines supply upwards of half of the global supply of those minerals, which China imports and uses primarily to manufacture magnets that are then used in electric cars and other applications. A “KIA official” told Reuters that Beijing made this threat back in May to force the rebels to cease their efforts to seize Bhamo, an important city in Myanmar’s Kachin state. It apparently has not caused the KIA to change its behavior but the threat itself is an interesting case of China making use of its position as the global bottleneck for processing critical minerals to effect a desired geopolitical outcome.
CHINA
Tuesday was not a great day to be a Chinese ambassador. The Philippine government summoned Beijing’s ambassador in Manila to complain about the Chinese government’s decision to blacklist a former Philippine senator several days ago. Then the German government summoned the Chinese ambassador in Berlin after a Chinese naval vessel apparently used a laser targeting system on a German aircraft in the Red Sea sometime earlier this month. That plane, a civilian aircraft commissioned for military work, was deployed as part of the European Union’s mission monitoring Red Sea commercial traffic. It’s unclear why the Chinese vessel (allegedly) lasered it.
SOUTH KOREA
One day after he announced a prospective 25 percent tariff on South Korean imports, Donald Trump suggested to reporters on Tuesday that he’s planning to demand additional compensation for the US military presence in South Korea. I’m trying not to lapse into “hey did you hear what Donald Trump said today?” content anymore because frankly he says a lot of things, but this is noteworthy inasmuch as Trump tried to jack up Seoul’s payment for its US military protection during his first term. He largely failed, though the Biden administration did negotiate a new agreement that included a higher South Korean payment—albeit one that fell far short of the increase Trump had demanded—shortly after taking office. So it seems reasonable to expect that he’ll follow through on this.
AFRICA
NIGERIA
An “armed gang,” as AFP described it, ambushed a local militia force in north-central Nigeria’s Plateau state on Sunday, killing at least 30 of its fighters. That attack came after some sort of clash nearby (details are sparse) in which ten militia fighters had been killed. The identity of the attackers is unclear, but Plateau is frequently plagued by outbreaks of violence between its herding and farming communities and local gangs/vigilantes are a feature of that phenomenon. Violence in general is on the rise across Nigeria. New figures released by the country’s National Human Rights Commission on Tuesday indicate that more people have been killed by armed factions in Nigeria so far this year (2266) than were killed in similar circumstances all of last year (2194). In June alone, 606 people were killed.
KENYA
Kenya’s national human rights agency is now reporting that at least 31 people were killed in clashes between protesters and police across the country on Monday. That’s up considerably from the 11 deaths that were reported yesterday and makes Monday the deadliest day for anti-government demonstrators in Kenya so far this year. At least 107 people were injured and more than 500 arrested.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
The Wall Street Journal reports that a combination of violence and US aid cuts is raising fears of a wave of HIV cases in the eastern DRC’s war-torn North and South Kivu provinces:
For years, Congolese women relied on U.S.-supplied antiretrovirals such as post-exposure prophylaxis kits, to prevent infection after an assault. But the funds for those programs dried up after President Trump and his then-right-hand man, Elon Musk, cut funding for most of America’s foreign-assistance programs, including many anti-HIV initiatives.
Now, nearly six months on, the region is threatened by a destabilizing cycle of infection and death, puncturing whatever economic gains might be possible in such a volatile corner of Africa.
Health workers say they have had to start turning away sexual-assault victims looking for post-rape treatment kits. “Most of the women call me crying,” said Noella Ndoole, a protection officer for CARE International, a global charity, who receives several calls a day from distressed women. “They are very worried, but we have no drugs to give them.”
EUROPE
RUSSIA
Russian authorities are investigating the death of former Transportation Minister Roman Starovoit, who they claim was found dead near his car in a park outside of Moscow after an apparent suicide. Questions abound, particularly over when exactly Starovoit’s body was discovered. Vladimir Putin sacked him from his ministerial position on Monday but there have been suggestions that he was already dead—by his own hand or otherwise—when the Russian government announced his dismissal. Starovoit had been implicated in an embezzlement scandal relating to the alleged misuse of funds intended to bolster border security in Russia’s Kursk oblast, where he’d served as governor prior to his cabinet appointment. Fear of prosecution may have given him reason to consider taking his own life, though the tendency for people on Putin’s naughty list to turn up dead also seems worth considering.
UKRAINE
The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that the Trump administration is considering sending another Patriot air defense system to Ukraine, which would mark its first allocation of military aid to Ukraine if it came to pass. Donald Trump has been talking up both the possibility of additional US military support for Ukraine and his frustration with the Russian government for several days, following his phone conversations with Putin last Thursday and Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday. On Tuesday he told reporters that “we get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin.”
The White House is insisting that the Pentagon’s announcement last week that it was suspending the shipment of Biden administration-allocated military aid to Ukraine caught the rest of the administration “flat footed.” The Pentagon is now saying that it will lift that suspension at Trump’s behest. Supplying Ukraine with another Patriot system, however, would go beyond that and it’s possible that Trump will opt for an alternative, like coaxing another country with Patriot batteries to supply one to Ukraine rather than the US doing so directly.
AMERICAS
COLOMBIA
The Colombian government has sent ambassador Daniel García-Peña back to Washington and is expecting the imminent arrival of US chargé d’affaires John McNamara to Bogotá. The two countries had withdrawn their respective diplomatic representatives last week after the US State Department complained about what it called “baseless and reprehensible statements from the highest levels of the Government of Colombia.” Specifically it was referring to comments from Colombian President Gustavo Petro, who last month suggested that the Trump administration, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in particular, was involved in a plot to oust him from the presidency. He’s since backed off of those statements and apparently sent a somewhat conciliatory letter to Donald Trump late last month, before the diplomatic dustup. It’s unclear if Trump read it.
UNITED STATES
Finally, the Trump administration has completed its trafficking of eight migrants to South Sudan, an effort that had been hung up in court for several weeks. The Intercept’s Nick Turse has more detail:
More than a decade of intermittent political turmoil and outright civil war has left South Sudan politically unstable and ravaged by violence. Recent clashes between armed groups drove 165,000 people to flee their homes in three months, according to a June United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees report. The country is subject to a U.N. warning about the potential for full-scale civil war and a U.S. State Department “Level 4: Do Not Travel” advisory.
The Trump administration abdicated the safety and legal fates of the eight men, only one of whom is South Sudanese, to the East African nation. The men were transported to a hotel in South Sudan’s capital, Juba, where they are under government supervision, according to Edmund Yakani, a longtime human rights defender in South Sudan and executive director of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization, or CEPO.
Yakani told The Intercept that the men arrived by U.S. military flight on July 5 around 5 a.m. local time. A photo of the men released by DHS shows them onboard a transport plane, handcuffed and shackled at the feet, surrounded by camouflage-uniformed personnel.
“DHS deported these eight men to South Sudan, one of the most dangerous countries on the planet, without any opportunity to contest their deportations based on their fears of torture or death there. The U.S. State Department advises people to draft a will and to establish a proof of life protocol before traveling there,” Trina Realmuto, a lawyer for the immigrants in the case and executive director at National Immigration Litigation Alliance, told The Intercept.
Vasco de Gama also stopped in Malindi, Kenya.