World roundup: July 6 2021
World roundup: July 6 2021
Stories from Afghanistan, Australia, El Salvador, and more
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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
July 5, 1811: Venezuelan Independence Day, marking the adoption of Venezuela’s Declaration of Independence in a congress of colonial provinces.
July 5, 1962: Algeria declares its official independence from France. Independence Day in Algeria.
July 5, 1977: Pakistan’s civilian government, under Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, is overthrown in a military coup led by General Zia-ul-Haq. Zia ruled Pakistan as president/dictator until he died in 1988.
July 6, 640: The Battle of Heliopolis
July 6, 1917: The Battle of Aqaba
July 6, 1967: The Nigerian Civil War begins when Nigerian forces invade the breakaway Niger Delta region of Biafra. The conflict eventually settled into a Nigerian blockade of Biafra, precipitating a massive humanitarian crisis in which hundreds of thousands of people (high estimates run to around 3 million) died of preventable causes, mostly starvation. A final Nigerian assault in December 1969 led to the Biafran rebels’ surrender a month later.
INTERNATIONAL
As of this writing, Worldometer’s coronavirus figures show 185,359,538 total cases of COVID-19 worldwide to date, with 4,008,682 reported COVID fatalities. According to the New York Times vaccine tracker, over 3.25 billion vaccines have been administered worldwide, or roughly 42 for every 100 people.
MIDDLE EAST
YEMEN
The Yemeni government’s advance through Baydaʾ province apparently continued on Monday, with Information Minister Moammar al-Eryani taking to Twitter to announce the capture of the Zaher district from Houthi forces. With the Houthis concentrating their efforts on their so-far futile attempt to capture Maʾrib city, it would seem other parts of their front line have been left vulnerable. Pro-government forces began a new offensive in Baydaʾ on Friday and so far seem to be making steady progress.
IRAQ
One of Iraq’s unambiguously deterred militias appears to have attacked a US military base at Erbil airport with a drone on Tuesday. There are no reports of any damage or casualties but the airport did have to be shut down due to the attack. It’s possible that this was an Islamic State operation but chances are significantly higher that it was a militia, particularly given the choice of weapon. Iraqi militia leaders, far from deterred, have been threatening “revenge” on US personnel over the four militia fighters killed in last month’s US airstrikes in Iraq and Syria.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The Israeli Knesset voted Tuesday not to renew the Citizenship and Entry into Israel Law, which has been in place since 2003 and bars Palestinians in the Occupied Territories from obtaining Israeli citizenship by marriage. It is one of the more overt manifestations of the apartheid conditions that obtain in the territories and is broadly supported across the Israeli political right and what passes for the center, which in sheer numbers should have made its extension a foregone conclusion. But Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s incoherent coalition came apart over the measure, with the Arab United List party and the center-left Meretz party opposed to the renewal.
Bennett offered a compromise in which the law would have been renewed for only six months instead of a year and a small number of Palestinians already married to Israeli citizens would have been permitted to claim citizenship, but the compromise alienated enough members of the coalition that Bennett could only muster 59 votes. His predecessor, current opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, could have swept in to save the law but opted instead to whip votes against it in order to humiliate Bennett in front of his far right base. Mission accomplished, as they say.
For Palestinians, this could prove to be a positive development but chances are it won’t have much impact. The law will likely be reimposed at some point and in the meantime Israeli officials can simply reject Palestinian citizenship claims on a case by case basis. And the discord within Bennett’s government just brings its inevitable implosion a bit closer to reality—and that’s Netanyahu’s one path back to power.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
There appears to be no solution as yet to the dispute between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over OPEC+ and its plans to restore pre-COVID levels of global oil production. The UAE is opposed to a Saudi and Russian proposal to maintain some level of pandemic-related production cuts through the end of 2022. As it stands the cuts are supposed to sunset in full in April, but officials in Riyadh and Moscow are concerned that, increasing oil demand notwithstanding, that could create a glut in the market. An Emirati offer to compromise by agreeing to the extended cutbacks in return for a bespoke adjustment to the UAE’s pre-COVID production baseline (which would allow the UAE to pump more oil despite current restrictions) has gotten a fairly frosty reception from the Saudis. Regardless of the apparent lack of progress, the Biden administration—which is currently hosting Saudi Deputy Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman—says it’s “encouraged” by the course of Saudi-Emirati negotiations.
IRAN
Speaking of encouraging things, an Iranian government spokesperson, Ali Rabiei, told reporters on Tuesday that Tehran’s ongoing regional dialogue with Saudi Arabia has made “good progress.” I guess that’s something. He does not appear to have gone into detail. Less encouraging is the state of Iranian-Israeli relations, as Rabiei accused Israel of perpetrating an attempted act of “sabotage” targeting a nuclear facility outside Tehran last month. The Iranians said at the time that they’d thwarted that attempt, again without offering much in the way of detail. Certainly if the accusation is true it wouldn’t be Israel’s first attack on an Iranian nuclear facility.
Speaking of Iranian nuclear facilities, Tehran has reportedly informed the International Atomic Energy Agency that it intends to produce 20 percent enriched uranium metal for use as reactor fuel. That’s another escalation in terms of Iran’s compliance (or lack thereof) with the 2015 nuclear deal (enriched uranium metal can be used in a weapon) and it’s already sparked warnings from European governments and the US about Iran violating an agreement that the United States essentially wrecked with its withdrawal in 2018.
ASIA
ARMENIA
Armenian and Azerbaijani soldiers reportedly engaged in a shootout on Tuesday across the border in eastern Armenia’s Gegharkunik province. One soldier on each side was wounded in the exchange. It’s unclear what exactly sparked the incident and unsurprisingly each side is blaming the other for shooting first.
AFGHANISTAN
Anticipating a complete takeover of Afghanistan once the US and other NATO forces have withdrawn—or at the very least a substantial role in a post-NATO Afghan government—the Taliban has been taking more care to present itself as a real governing body in the territory under its control. According to the New York Times the transformation hasn’t been a completely smooth one:
But the signs that the Taliban have not reformed are increasingly clear: An assassination campaign against government workers, civil society leaders and security forces continues on pace. There is little effort to proceed with peace talks with the Afghan government, despite commitments made to the United States. And in areas the insurgents have seized, women are being forced out of public-facing roles, and girls out of schools, undoing many of the gains from the past 20 years of Western presence.
For much of the Afghan public, terrified and exhausted, the Taliban’s gains have been panic-inducing. And there is widespread fear that worse is in store, as the Taliban already have several crucial provincial capitals effectively under siege.
Regional groups have begun to muster militias to defend their home turf, skeptical that the Afghan security forces can hold out in the absence of their American backers, in a painful echo of the country’s devastating civil war breakdown in the 1990s.
In places they now rule, the Taliban have imposed their old hard-line Islamist rules, such as forbidding women from working or even going outside their homes unaccompanied, according to residents in recently captured districts. Music is banned. Men are told to stop shaving their beards. Residents are also supposed to provide food for Taliban fighters.
CHINA
Authorities in Hong Kong arrested nine people on Tuesday, six of them high school students, accusing them of planning to set off homemade explosives in various spots around the region. If the allegations are true, and that’s a pretty big “if,” it could represent an escalation in the Hong Kong protest movement. Authorities have arrested several people on similar (and similarly questionable) charges since the peak of that movement in 2019, however, but so far the protest movement has remained peaceful.
OCEANIA
AUSTRALIA
At Jacobin, the University of Sydney’s David Brophy examines Australia’s role as Washington’s sidekick in its Pacific contest with China:
Yet with little public debate, Australia’s support for the United States is locking Australia firmly into that rivalry. Since Obama announced the “Pivot” in 2011, the US Marine rotation in Darwin has risen to 2,500. To Darwin’s east, millions of dollars are being spent to upgrade port facilities that can accommodate American warships — with some advertising these facilities as a possible base for the US Navy’s revived First Fleet.
Three hundred kilometers to the south, at the Royal Australian Air Force base at Tindal, Morrison plans to spend A$1.1 billion to extend runways and enhance support capacity for US B-52s, transforming it into what commentator Paul Dibb excitedly calls “the most potent military base south of Guam.” Roughly $1 billion will also go toward purchasing Lockheed Martin anti-ship missiles, and defense hawks are lobbying for Australia to either acquire, or permit America to install, intermediate-range ballistic missiles in the Northern Territory. With a range of 3,000–5,500 kilometers, such missiles would be capable of hitting the southern provinces of China.
Beyond the tit-for-tat diplomatic exchanges that drive the news cycle, these are the hard realities of Australia’s positioning today. Amid a deep post-COVID recession, Australia will direct $270 billion into military spending in the coming decade, shedding all pretense that this is not aimed at China. The 2020 meeting of the Australia–United States Ministerial Consultations (a forum known as AUSMIN) is said to have resulted in a “secret defense plan” to counter China, but the basic plan is hardly a secret.
By doubling down on Australia’s historical role as an imperial sidekick in Asia, politicians of both major parties are pursuing policies designed to keep military options against China on the table and preserve America’s role in the region. Guided by the expansive notion of “security” that the architects of Australia’s regional dominance operate within, these policies increase the likelihood of confrontation with the PRC and make ordinary Australians less safe.
AFRICA
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
The United Nations humanitarian affairs office warned on Tuesday that thousands of people are in “imminent danger” due to fighting between government and rebel forces around the town of Alindao in the southern Central African Republic. UN peacekeepers say that the rebel Unity for Peace in Central Africa group attacked Alindao on June 30, killing at least seven people (including two civilians), and ongoing clashes since then have displaced many civilians and cut them off from food and other basic resources.
ETHIOPIA
The commander of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front’s military forces, Tsadkan Gebretensae, called on Tuesday for a “negotiated ceasefire” with the Ethiopian government. Tsadkan’s fighters have driven the Ethiopian military out of much of Tigray, including the regional capital Mekelle, but the TPLF has rejected a unilateral Ethiopian ceasefire as inadequate. Its leaders are demanding the full withdrawal of Ethiopian, Eritrean, and Amhara regional forces from the Tigray region along with other conditions, including a surge of humanitarian aid for people impacted by the months-long Tigrayan conflict.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
Russian authorities arrested Estonian consul Mart Latte in St. Petersburg on Tuesday for allegedly receiving “confidential” material from an unspecified “Russian national.” That seems like something a diplomat shouldn’t be doing, but Estonian officials have responded angrily, accusing Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) of framing or “setting up” Latte. It’s unclear how they’re supposed to have done this.
ITALY
Just a few days after the UAE told the Italian military to clear out of its al-Minhad airbase in a dispute over arms sales, the Italian government blinked on Tuesday. While it is not reversing course on a decision back in January to halt a planned sale of missiles to the UAE and Saudi Arabia over concerns they could be used in Yemen, Rome has decided to relax the arms restrictions it imposed in 2019, also over concerns about Yemen. So the January deal won’t be restored, but moving forward the Saudis and Emiratis will be able to use Italian arms to blow up as many Yemeni school buses as their hearts desire. It’s almost touching, in a way. Or maybe not.
AMERICAS
BRAZIL
It seems that CIA Director William Burns has been visiting friendly (or to put it another way, right-wing) South American leaders over the past few days, spending late June with Colombian President Iván Duque and more recently commiserating with Brazilian leader Jair Bolsonaro. It’s not entirely clear what Burns has been discussing with these folks, but Brasil Wire’s Nathália Urban says that Bolsonaro kind of let the cat out of the bag after their talk:
As reported yesterday, the CIA Director William J. Burns travelled to Brazil to meet Bolsonaro government ministers. The reason for the meetings had been kept secret, but Jair Bolsonaro during his daily social media broadcast to his supporters, claimed he had a meeting with Burns (although not on his official schedule). The Brazilian president openly admitted that the meeting was held with the purpose of discussing the political situation in South America, or more specifically the new rise of the left, and Bolsonaro attacked neighbouring countries:
“I’m not going to say that this was dealt with him, but we analyzed how things are going in South America. We can’t stand to talk about Venezuela anymore, but look at Argentina. Where is Chile going? What happened in Bolivia? The Evo Morales gang returned. And even more: the president who was there in the interim term is in prison, accused of undemocratic acts. Are you feeling any resemblance to Brazil?”
I don’t know if there’s any connection between Burns’ visit and Bolsonaro’s decision to start laying the groundwork for rejecting the outcome of next year’s Brazilian presidential election. Probably not. But it’s an interesting coincidence.
VENEZUELA
On a related note, Joe Biden sent a letter to Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó (AKA “who?”) on Monday reaffirming US support for his…whatever it is.
Biden praised Guaidó for leading Venezuela “through a peaceful democratic transition of power,” and before you ask the answer is no, I have no idea what that’s supposed to mean. I don’t even think Guaidó can get a write up in the Washington Post these days, let alone lead a meaningful political transition.
NICARAGUA
Nicaraguan authorities on Monday arrested at least five more opposition leaders, including another potential presidential candidate, Medardo Mairena. That brings to at least 26 the number of Nicaraguan opposition figures detained since early June, including six challengers to Daniel Ortega’s reelection. All five of the people arrested Monday are being charged for activities related to anti-government protests in 2018, which in Mairena’s case is particularly interesting because he’s already been arrested, tried, convicted, and amnestied over that very thing.
EL SALVADOR
Writing for Foreign Policy, Chatham House’s Christopher Sabatini cautions that the Biden administration’s hyper-focus on corruption as the “root cause” of Central American migration is missing the forest for the trees:
Compared to many of the basic factors believed to drive or stall development, corruption is likely relatively small (although dirty) change. Far bigger issues are the wildly skewed distribution of land and wealth, economic exclusion, racism, dependence on commodity or low-tech exports, informal economies and their workers, and the growing inequality caused by the concentration of capital wealth versus production. Many of these factors were studied intensively and formed the basis for development programs in the 1960s and 1970s. In those decades, they led to massive land redistribution programs in places like Taiwan and South Korea.
In contrast, there are few rigorous studies comparing corruption to other, better understood factors. As the Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist and Nobel laureate Abhijit Vinayak Banerjee wrote in 2008, we are only starting to develop sufficient comparative data on the macro effect of corruption on economic growth and development. (And it is worth noting that China, one of the biggest success stories of development and poverty alleviation in modern history, is hardly a paragon of public transparency and integrity.)
Sure, finger wagging at eye-popping stories of venality may make observers feel good—even morally superior—and provide political talking points, but in the end, development and the sort of opportunity the Biden administration seeks to achieve in Central America does not primarily hinge on tackling corruption. That will depend on a more balanced distribution of resources, countries’ factor endowments (such as their transportation networks, levels of education, and arable land), and state policy.
Politically making migration all about corruption is easy, because it puts the onus for Central American displacement on Central American governments. It’s much harder to admit that the United States and its myriad interventions in the region has been the biggest cause of displacement and economic dislocation. Doing that means pointing the finger back in our own direction and nobody in the US wants to do that. The need to absolve ourselves of blame (or at least ignore our culpability) is only going to get worse as climate change becomes the major migration driver in the decades to come.
UNITED STATES
Finally, with many of Joe Biden’s senior foreign policy and national security hires finally in place, The American Prospect takes a look at how many of them were pulled from just one major consulting firm:
Less than six months into the Biden administration, more than 15 consultants from the firm WestExec Advisors have fanned out across the White House, its foreign policy apparatus, and its law enforcement institutions. Five, some of whom already have jobs with the administration, have been nominated for high-ranking posts, and four others served on the Biden-Harris transition team. Even by Washington standards, it’s a remarkable march through the revolving door, especially for a firm that only launched in 2017. The pipeline has produced a dominance of WestExec alums throughout the administration, installed in senior roles as influential as director of national intelligence and secretary of state. WestExec clients, meanwhile, have controversial interests in tech and defense that intersect with the policies their former consultants are now in a position to set and execute.
The arrival of each new WestExec adviser at the administration has been met with varying degrees of press coverage—headlines for the secretary of state, blurbs in trade publications for the head of cybersecurity—but the creeping monopolization of foreign policymaking by a single boutique consulting firm has gone largely unnoticed. The insularity of this network of policymakers poses concerns about the potential for groupthink, conflicts of interest, and what can only be called, however oxymoronically, legalized corruption.
It could have been worse, I guess, since WestExec co-founder Michèle Flournoy narrowly missed out on a nomination to be secretary of defense. But really, 15+ senior officials seems like a lot for a single firm. It would be improper to allege that the firm’s unnamed clients are pleased to have all these familiar faces in the administration, but I’m sure they’re not displeased about it.