World roundup: July 31 2025
Stories from Israel-Palestine, Myanmar, Ukraine, and elsewhere
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TODAY IN HISTORY
July 31 (or thereabouts), 751: An Abbasid army defeats an imperial Tang Chinese force at the Battle of Talas in Central Asia. Arab and Chinese armies had by this point bumped into one another several times in that region, but Talas proved to be fairly decisive in terms of establishing Islamic over Chinese primacy. The main reason for this isn’t so much the battle as the subsequent An Lushan Rebellion in China, which the Tang survived but in a substantially weaker state with much less control over their imperial periphery. Talas was also once believed to have been instrumental in the transmission of paper-making technology from China to the Arabs and thus on to the West, but this seems to be overblown.
July 31, 1941: The invading Wehrmacht defeats the Soviet Red Army at the Battle of Smolensk, part of World War II’s Operation Barbarossa. Though a fairly stunning German tactical victory, leaving over 400,000 Soviet soldiers killed or wounded and over 300,000 captured, strategically Smolensk contributed to the overall collapse of the Nazi invasion of the USSR. The stiff Soviet resistance caused German leaders to slow down their advance on Moscow, which gave the Soviets time to strengthen their defenses around the city and contributed to the attrition of the German army. The subsequent Battle of Moscow ended in a significant Soviet victory.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani’s first official visit to Russia appears to have gone smoothly on Thursday, as he and Russian FM Sergey Lavrov expressed their interest in strengthening ties and in reviewing “agreements and contracts concluded under different conditions”—or, in other words, between Moscow and former Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. They apparently did not come to any definitive decision about the status of the two Syrian military bases that the Russian military has leased until 2066 in agreements that were definitely “concluded under different conditions.” But one assumes they’re working up to that. A Syrian government that seems desperate to curry favor with the West may be somewhat constrained in its Russia policy.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
Trump administration envoy Steve Witkoff was in Israel on Thursday for meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other officials, after which he was reportedly planning another visit to Gaza. Witkoff last visited the territory in January and by all accounts the situation is considerably more appalling than it was even at that very appalling point. According to the White House, Witkoff will “brief” Donald Trump on what he sees, and on Friday the Trump administration will roll out some sort of new humanitarian aid plan.
What that plan will look like is anybody’s guess at this point. As you likely know the Israeli government rolled out its own new aid plan of sorts several days ago, a combination of airdrops and daily “tactical pauses.” The effect has, according to aid workers, been negligible. Oxfam’s Bushra Khalidi called them “token gestures” and “theatrics” that are “designed…to deflect scrutiny,” which sounds about right. (Here’s a neat tidbit: apparently international aid groups have learned that if they try to import any fruits or vegetables that have “pits or seeds that could be planted” by their would-be Palestinian recipients, those imports will be blocked by Israeli customs officials. But the Israeli government absolutely isn’t pursuing a policy of starvation.)
The most likely scenario is probably that the administration will announce some sort of expansion or reinforcement of the “Gaza Humanitarian Foundation” scheme, whose deliberate ineffectiveness and downright cruelty have been further revealed in recent days via first-hand accounts from ex-GHF “security contractor” (mercenary) Anthony Aguilar. In another interview this week, this time with US Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), Aguilar recounted an incident in which an Israeli soldier ordered his mercenary contractor unit to open fire on a group of children near a GHF distribution site. Aguilar says he protested and the children left the area before anything took place, but he was later reprimanded by his bosses for resisting an order from their “client.” Yes, it seems the IDF was their actual client. This story turns out to be literally true—the Trump administration has reportedly informed the US Congress that the Israeli government agreed to “match” a $30 million US grant to the GHF.
Another attack by a mob of Israeli settlers left one Palestinian dead in the West Bank town of Silwad early Thursday morning. He died while battling fires set by the mob. With settler violence once again on the rise, the Trump administration did the sensible thing on Thursday by imposing a blanket visa ban on officials in the Palestine Liberation Organization and/or the Palestinian Authority. According to the US State Department they are “undermining the prospects for peace.”
IRAN
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told The Financial Times earlier this week that Tehran will not resume nuclear talks unless US officials “explain why they attacked us in the middle of . . . negotiations,” “ensure that they are not going to repeat that,” and “compensate [for] the damage that they have done.” Somehow I can’t envision the Trump administration fulfilling any of those conditions.
ASIA
PAKISTAN
The US and Pakistani governments have come to a trade agreement. I haven’t seen full details but the AP is reporting that part of the accord involves the US exploitation of Pakistani oil reserves. Those parameters are similarly unknown but as that piece notes most of Pakistan’s oil is thought to be located beneath Baluchistan province, where separatist rebels tend to take a dim view of foreign (mostly Chinese right now) commercial activity, so security might be an important consideration before anything can move forward. Pakistan’s proven oil reserves are not particularly voluminous, but a 2015 study estimated that the country may hold somewhere around 9 billion barrels of shale oil.
MYANMAR
Myanmar’s ruling junta has lifted the state of emergency it imposed after the February 2021 military coup that brought it to power, clearing a legal hurdle to the general election it wants to hold later this year. As far as I know this decision only involves the national state of emergency—more localized states of emergency and/or martial law declarations related to Myanmar’s multiple internal conflicts will presumably remain in place. There’s little practical effect to this—technically ending the state of emergency strips military leader Min Aung Hlaing of his absolute authority over Myanmar’s transitional government, but coincidentally he just so happens to be the acting president of that government and has earned himself another appointment as the head of the newly-formed electoral commission. That sure is lucky for him.
THAILAND
The main threat to the still-fragile Thai-Cambodian ceasefire may be the emerging controversy over 20 (give or take) Cambodian soldiers who are being held by the Thai military. They were apparently taken captive around eight hours after the ceasefire went into effect at midnight Tuesday, which has generated complaints from the Cambodian government, but only after they’d crossed into Thai territory. Cambodian officials claim that 20 soldiers were taken captive while Thai authorities say they’re holding just 18, raising questions about what may have happened to two of them. The Cambodian government says it’s negotiating for their release but Thai officials have indicated that they won’t release them until the “legal process” has played out.
PHILIPPINES
The Moro Islamic Liberation Front rebel group, which has been decommissioning its fighters under the terms of a 2014 ceasefire with the Philippine government, has reportedly suspended that process with some 14,000 fighters to go. According to the Philippine official overseeing the peace process in the Bangsamoro region, David Diciano, the group is “claiming that the government has not delivered substantially on its socio-economic commitments” to support its fighters once they’ve been decommissioned. Diciano disputed that claim as well as the decision to freeze the decommissioning process rather than addressing its grievances through “channels” set up in the 2014 agreement.
TAIWAN
A few days ago I mentioned that Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te had postponed a planned trip to the US, under the usual (for Taiwanese leaders) guise of a “stopover” on the way to Latin America, after the Trump administration expressed concern that his visit might complicate efforts to negotiate a trade agreement with China. It turns out that may not be an accurate description of what happened. The Financial Times is reporting that the Trump administration revoked permission for Lai to stop in the US after Beijing “raised objections” about the visit. Lai has publicly insisted that he’s not planning any overseas trips while Taiwan recovers from Typhoon Danas earlier this month but that appears to be a cover story.
AFRICA
SUDAN
Reuters considers the implications of the newly-unveiled Rapid Support Forces-backed Sudanese government on the prospects for resolving the RSF’s war against the Sudanese military:
Analysts say the formation of the parallel governments could lead to a Libya-like stalemate or even worse fragmentation as other armed groups claim their own territories and follow the RSF's lead.
Both governments could also struggle to secure the international cooperation they need to rebuild Sudan's shattered economy and infrastructure.
No states have so far moved to recognise the RSF's parallel government, which the U.N. and African Union have condemned. Militias have also proliferated across RSF territory, helping the paramilitary push forward but also proving hard to control.
The seat of the RSF government, Nyala, in southern Darfur, has seen growing crime, including kidnappings, as well as protests by residents and soldiers. It has also been targeted frequently by army air and drone strikes.
The army's coalition, including former rebel groups and tribal militias, is similarly fragile. And while the army has international recognition, with support from regional powers such as Egypt, many countries remain hesitant to deal with it because of the 2021 coup and the influence of Islamists.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
The United Nations Joint Human Rights Office is accusing the M23 militant group of killing some 169 people in the Rutshuru region of the DRC’s North Kivu province in an attack that began on July 9. The UNJHRO’s report claims that the group was targeting “suspected members of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR)” militant group, a Hutu militia whose origins stem from the remnants of the Interhamwe that was responsible for the 1994 Rwandan Genocide, but an unnamed local activist estimated that they massacred more than 100 civilians—many of them ethnic Hutu farmers. M23 officials have said they are investigating but also suggested that the allegation could be part of a “smear campaign.”
EUROPE
LITHUANIA
Lithuanian Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas resigned on Thursday amid public protests and one day after the For Lithuania party threatened to quit his coalition if he refused to depart. Paluckas has been implicated in several allegations of corruption relating to his and his family’s business dealings but has denied those claims.
UKRAINE
The Russian military claimed on Thursday that it had captured the town of Chasiv Yar in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk oblast. Russian forces have been targeting that town since last April, primarily because of its strategic position on a highpoint west of the city of Bakhmut. If they’ve seized it that could facilitate offensives against major towns and cities further west in the province. The Ukrainian government is insisting that its forces are still holding on to the town and that a Russian video showing its soldiers planting flags in two locations was filmed in areas that nevertheless remain under Ukrainian control.
Elsewhere, Ukrainian President Volodymyr signed a new bill into law on Thursday that effectively reverses the one he signed last week that gutted the independence of Ukraine’s two largest anticorruption agencies. The previous bill placed those agencies under the oversight of the presidentially-appointed general prosecutor, which proved deeply unpopular and raised serious questions about Zelensky’s motives. The new one reverses that reorganization.
AMERICAS
BRAZIL
New polling seems to confirm that Donald Trump’s overt hostility toward the current Brazilian government is doing wonders for the man who is in charge of it. An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey has President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s approval rating at 50.2 percent, which is the first time it’s been above 50 percent since October and is up from 49.7 percent last month. The movement has revived the possibility that Lula could win reelection next year and proves once again that backlash to Trump can be a powerful political factor.
MEXICO
Donald Trump made a flurry of tariff moves on Thursday, one day before what had previously (we’ll get to that) been his latest “deadline” for countries to reach trade deals with the US. One fairly straightforward move involved Mexico, whose interim 25 percent tariff he simply extended for at least another 90 days. That rate was set to rise to 30 percent on Friday sans deal.
CANADA
The third partner in the US-Mexico-Canada relationship didn’t fare so well. Trump signed an executive order raising the tariff on some Canadian products from 25 percent to 35 percent. He says he’s upset by the Canadian announcement this week that it intends to recognize a Palestinian state later this year during the UN General Assembly. It should be noted that some Canadian imports to the US are shielded from this tariff increase by the 2020 US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.
UNITED STATES
Various other countries are facing punitive tariff rates after failing to reach deals, among them Syria at 41 percent and Laos and Myanmar at 40 percent each. I think we’re long past the point where there’s any reason to try to make sense of these figures and have entered “forget it Jake, it’s Chinatown” territory, so let’s just treat these numbers as a given and move on. None of them are apparently looking at a tariff hike tomorrow, as the orders Trump signed on Thursday made the new official start date August 7. It’s also still possible that some/most/all of these tariffs will be thrown out in court given the shaky legal justification the administration has offered for them.
Finally, with the tariffs in mind and with all due respect to the HBO series (my wife is a big fan), TomDispatch’s Alfred McCoy wonders whether Trump is ushering America into a new “Gilded Age”:
In the first year of his first term, in fact, Trump enacted the 2017 tax cuts that the New York Times called “the most sweeping tax overhaul in decades.” By cutting the corporate tax rate from 39% to 21%, reducing the top individual income tax rate from 39.6% to 37%, and doubling the size of estates exempt from being taxed to $11.2 million, those Trump tax cuts, economists found, produced a marked increase in “after-tax income for high-income households.” Indeed, the bottom 20% of wage earners saved just $60 each, while the upper 1% gained $51,000 each and the top 0.1% at least $193,000.
Yet even that landmark legislation would pale before the inequitable impact of Trump’s tax policies in his second term in office, which all too literally sought to overturn the fiscal foundations of the Progressive Era reforms that had shaped American middle-class society for more than a century. If we combine the social impact of his recent “Big Beautiful” budget bill, which extends the 2017 tax cuts, with his skyrocketing tariffs, Trump seems to be trying to undo the landmark tax legislation of 1913 by reducing or replacing the progressive income tax with tariff revenues that are really a regressive tax on the poor. When the budget’s tax cuts for the rich are combined with his escalating tariffs that are bound to raise prices for ordinary consumers, those twinned policies are guaranteed to produce a massive transfer of wealth to the wealthiest 1% of Americans, creating an ever steeper version of social inequality that is fast fostering a new Gilded Age (and the economic disasters that are bound to go with it).