World roundup: July 30 2024

Stories from Lebanon, North Korea, Morocco, and elsewhere

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TODAY IN HISTORY

July 30, 762: Abbasid Caliph al-Mansur founds the city of Baghdad as his new capital. Located near the site of the former Sasanian (Persian) capital Ctesiphon, Baghdad replaced the Umayyad capital Damascus as the center of the caliphal court. Officially the new city was called Medinat al-Salam, or “the City of Peace.” It’s not entirely clear why it took the name Baghdad, but the prevailing theory as far as I know is that a village called “Baghdad” stood near the spot where the city was built, and common usage applied that name to the city. Eventually common usage won out. For several centuries Baghdad was arguably the most important city in the world. At its height it may have been home to more than a million people and was world-renowned as a center of learning and culture. Its decline mirrored the decline of the Abbasid dynasty, and the Mongol sack of the city in 1258 proved especially devastating.

July 30, 1619: The Virginia General Assembly meets for the first time in Jamestown. Today the Assembly bills itself as “the first representative government in the New World,” which I guess is true if you ignore the millions of people who were already living there when the first Europeans showed up, many of whom also practiced forms of “representative government.” Anyway this gives the Assembly a claim on being the true forerunner of the modern US government, which must be a source of great pride for everybody involved.

MIDDLE EAST

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

Juan Cole recounts Monday’s riot in defense of Israeli soldiers’ right to rape their prisoners:

The Israeli newspaper Arab 48 reports that on Monday, military police raided the Sde Teiman detention center where Palestinian prisoners are being held, detaining 9 Israel soldiers suspected of gang raping and severely sexually torturing detainees. One further suspect was not apprehended. The soldiers belong to the Force 100 unit, which has been detailed to Sde Teiman as prison guards.

It is being reported that they were taken into custody because of the recent transfer of a Palestinian prisoner to the Soroka Medical Facility in Beersheba with severe injuries to his nether regions.

Soldiers at Sde Teiman put up resistance to the military police, with a fight breaking out, though the MPs clearly won that one.

Rejecting these charges against the soldiers, a right wing mob that included members of the Parliament from the Likud and the Religious Zionist and Jewish Power blocs, then attempted several times to storm through the gates of the facility and finally succeeded in breaching the military barricades, attacking MPs and reaching the area where Palestinians are held. One soldier said that no one seemed to be in control. The unruly crowd chanted its support for torture and even called for the summary execution of the Palestinian prisoners.

Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, whose department oversees the prison, is of course lambasting the decision to detain those nine soldiers, though he hasn’t as far as I can tell escalated his grievance to the political level. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has to keep Ben-Gvir happy for the sake of his coalition, but he also seems to be trying to demonstrate to the rest of the world that Israel does police its own war crimes. He might not be able to do both.

Meanwhile, the Israeli military (IDF) has reportedly ended its latest offensive in the eastern part of Khan Younis, sending thousands of people back into that area to recover whatever is left. The IDF says it killed more than 150 combatants over this week-long operation, but the full death toll is likely much higher. Recovery teams have found 42 bodies in the area so far and at least 200 people are still thought to be missing.

IRAQ

The US military carried out an airstrike on a militia base in central Iraq’s Babylon province on Tuesday night, killing at least four militia fighters according to Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces organization. US officials are claiming that fighters on that base were preparing to launch a drone strike against US forces.

LEBANON

The IDF conducted an airstrike in southern Beirut on Tuesday that targeted senior Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr, AKA “Al-Hajj Muhsin,” the man Israeli officials are blaming for the deadly rocket strike in the Golan over the weekend. The Israelis are saying that Shukr was one of at least three people killed (along with 74 wounded) in the strike, though as far as I know his status has not yet been confirmed independently. It would not be surprising to see those casualty figures continue to rise given how densely populated much of southern Beirut is. Shukr has long been considered a prime suspect in Hezbollah’s 1983 bombing of a barracks in Beirut that killed 241 US Marines.

The Biden administration has reportedly been urging the Israeli government not to strike Beirut in an attempt to minimize the potential for further escalation. This attack obviously runs counter to that. If Shukr, one of Hezbollah’s top officials (I’ve seen him described by some outlets as the group’s “second in command”) was really among the dead it’s conceivable that the Israelis could deem that to be sufficient retaliation for Saturday’s rocket strike and stop there. I’m not saying they will, just that it’s plausible.

The Beirut strike came after IDF attacks on at least ten Lebanese targets overnight killed at least one Hezbollah fighter, and a Hezbollah rocket strike killed at least one civilian in northern Israel.

IRAN

The Biden administration on Tuesday blacklisted five individuals and seven entities allegedly linked to Iranian missile and drone development. Several are based in China and Hong Kong in addition to Iran.

ASIA

AFGHANISTAN

The Taliban-led Afghan government announced on Tuesday that it’s no longer recognizing diplomatic missions, passports, visas, and related documentation issued by the country’s previous, Western-backed government. Kabul is trying to consolidate its diplomatic authority by restricting consular services to facilities established by the Taliban, but it’s unclear whether governments in the affected countries are going to care one way or the other. Afghan nationals living in those countries, primarily in Europe, will undoubtedly suffer as a result, as this will complicate their ability to seek consular services.

PHILIPPINES

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin took their two-man show to Manila on Tuesday, where they announced a new $500 million in military aid for the Philippines. Blinken and Austin are touring Asia, playing on concerns about China to tighten US security relationships along the way. According to Blinken the new funding will be used “to boost security collaboration” between the US and the Philippines. Some portion will likely be earmarked for the Philippine Coast Guard, which has borne the brunt of the dispute between Manila and Beijing over parts of the South China Sea.

NORTH KOREA

It’s time for another round of mostly baseless speculation about North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s health, a favorite pastime of the US and South Korean governments as well as their associated media outlets. Kim has visibly gained weight in his recent state media appearances and seems to have returned to the weight he was at prior to his big slimming down in 2021—which briefly fueled speculation that he was dying of some kind of wasting disease. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service is now reportedly telling lawmakers that it’s learned that Pyongyang is importing high blood pressure and diabetes medicines for Kim. Nothing here is definitive—it never is with respect to these kinds of stories—but it’s probably important to note that the conjecture is out there. Again.

AFRICA

SUDAN

The Sudanese military on Tuesday tentatively accepted its invitation to a new round of US- and Saudi-mediated ceasefire talks scheduled to begin on August 14 in Switzerland. Blinken announced the talks last week and the Rapid Support Forces unit quickly accepted. In its statement, the military said it wants to discuss the agenda with US officials beforehand and suggested that it will only accept an agreement if it includes an RSF withdrawal from areas the group has conquered. The latter seems exceedingly unlikely, but I guess anything is possible.

MOROCCO

The French government on Tuesday drastically altered its policy regarding Western Sahara, throwing its support behind the Moroccan government’s claim to the disputed region under Rabat’s “limited autonomy” proposal. Paris had previously refused to take a position on the sovereignty question, though it had also offered a limited endorsement of the autonomy proposal—which Moroccan officials first tabled back in 2007. Tuesday’s decision brings France in line with the US, which recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in 2020 as an inducement to bring Morocco into the “Abraham Accords.”

France’s status as a former colonial power in the region and a veto-wielding member of the United Nations Security Council gives its position some weight, though it is by no means going to be decisive in terms of the international consensus around the Western Sahara dispute. It is nevertheless a blow to the pro-independence Polisario Front. Consequently, the Algerian government—Polisario’s main foreign patron—announced that it’s withdrawing its ambassador from Paris. It took the same step when the Spanish government announced its support for Moroccan sovereignty back in 2022. The decision to recognize Moroccan sovereignty over the territory will certainly improve French-Moroccan relations.

MALI

Reuters, citing “two security sources,” is reporting that a Malian army and Wagner Group/Africa Corps force was attacked by both rebels from the Permanent Strategic Framework for Peace, Security and Development (CSP-PSD) group and jihadist militants from Jamaʿat Nusrat al-Islam wa’l-Muslimin in northeastern Mali’s Kidal region in recent days. Details here are still pretty sketchy but it may be that JNIM fighters were able to ambush the army-mercenary column while it was engaged with the CSP rebels or possibly as it was withdrawing after a days-long battle. Reuters’ sources say that “the extent of coordination between the two groups was unclear” but the Malian government has accused CSP of colluding with JNIM in the past.

BURKINA FASO

World Politics Review’s Daniel Eizenga argues that recent setbacks in the Burkinabè junta’s war against jihadist militants and repeated accusations of brutality by the country’s security forces are fueling a “paranoid” political crackdown:

Confronted with this grim situation, [junta leader Ibrahim] Traore appears increasingly paranoid about the possibility of a coup against his own rule, as evidenced by his response to the June [jihadist] attack in Mansila. Since taking power, he has severed Burkina Faso’s historical ties with France, demanding a withdrawal of the French military contingent that had been assisting the Burkinabe military in its counterinsurgency operations. In their place, Traore has contracted the Russian mercenary group formerly known as the Wagner Group, now referred to as Africa Corps, as “trainers” for his presidential guard.

Meanwhile, in the political realm, junta rule has descended into more repressive authoritarianism. Traore abruptly halted all the political reforms that Damiba, his predecessor, had previously agreed to, arguing that the transition back to civilian rule will have to wait until the security situation is resolved. Instead of holding elections this month, as agreed to by Damiba and initially reaffirmed by Traore when he seized power, the junta has postponed them by another five years. Until then, the country will endure junta rule—or, stated more plainly, military dictatorship, given Traore’s bruising efforts to silence dissent.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO

The Angolan government announced on Tuesday that Congolese and Rwandan negotiators have reached an agreement to halt fighting between the Congolese military and the Rwandan-backed M23 militia. Angola has been mediating negotiations between the two governments in Luanda. The Congolese government and M23 are still operating under the terms of a humanitarian pause that’s set to expire on August 3. The ceasefire is set to begin the following day. As AFP notes, the terms of the ceasefire aren’t known so it’s unclear whether it will reflect an extension or expansion of the current pause.

EUROPE

RUSSIA

At least seven imprisoned political dissidents have reportedly disappeared within the Russian penal system over the past several days. While it’s possible that they’ve simply been transferred to other facilities—Russian authorities don’t always notify family members when they move prisoners—the coincidence raises the possibility that they’re being gathered for a prisoner exchange with the US and/or other Western countries. The recent convictions of US journalists Alsu Kurmasheva and Evan Gershkovich had already generated speculation that some sort of swap was in the offing, but it’s possible that the scope will be larger than previously thought.

UKRAINE

The Russian military says its forces have captured another village in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk oblast. This one, Pivdenne, is located due north of Donetsk city very near to the industrial town of Toretsk. The Russians have been moving on Toretsk for several weeks now.

AMERICAS

VENEZUELA

Protests have spread across Venezuela in the wake of incumbent Nicolás Maduro’s victory—as far as Venezuelan authorities are concerned, at least—in Sunday’s presidential election. Officials are characterizing the protests a “coup” and the level of violence has been high, with at least 11 people killed so far. At least one prominent opposition politician, Freddy Superlano, has already been arrested and there are indications that the government may move against opposition leader María Corina Machado and opposition presidential candidate Edmundo González as well. Joe Biden and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva reportedly spoke about the Venezuelan situation by phone on Tuesday and, according to the White House, “agreed on the need for immediate release of full, transparent, and detailed voting data at the polling station level by the Venezuelan electoral authorities.” Lula is generally on good terms with Maduro for whatever that’s worth.

Opposition supporters gathered for a demonstration in Caracas on Tuesday (Alfredo Lasry R/Getty Images)

UNITED STATES

Finally, here’s Spencer Ackerman on the coming avalanche of US military spending:

THERE'S A DECEPTIVELY BORING TERM IN DEFENSE-BUDGET CIRCLES called a "bow wave."

A bow wave is massive growth in the cost of a defense system—be it a warplane, or a missile, or a close-to-shore surface ship that crams a million functions into a single platform without excelling at any one thing—in the years after the initial decision by Congress and the military services to purchase it. A bow wave results from those services, their contractors (who actually make the stuff the services want and Congress pays for), and/or legislators lowballing the initial costs of a defense system and/or exaggerating what the system's ambitious capabilities are and/or misforecasting what capabilities the system will need to have in the future. Those capabilities are the reasons for buying the system.

Basically, if you want the plane, missile or ship to do what you bought it to do? Oops, that costs extra—and it still may not meet functional requirements. You want to keep it functional across or, as is likely, beyond its planned life cycle? Extra. You want to add functionality 10 years or so after initial development that now you figure it needs? So much extra.

In this manner, defense spending gets locked in, on an upward trajectory, for many years beyond the five-year defense budgeting cycle. That's money that won't go to your kid's education or keeping the bridge you drive over from falling down.

In other words, a defense bow wave represents a flow of money collected from me and you into the pockets of a small number of fantastically wealthy defense contractors. It's wealth redistribution upward. It's systemic, institutional corruption, the normalized and predictable result of allowing (in this case) defense giants to fund the politicians who make the purchasing decisions and to employ general and flag officers after retirement.

Now get ready for something more like a tidal wave, according to a new report from researchers at the Stimson Center, a respected think tank and not a wild-eyed newsletter like this one.