World roundup: July 3 2025
Stories from Iran, Ethiopia, Colombia, and elsewhere
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PROGRAMMING NOTE: Tomorrow is Independence Day in the US and I will be taking the day away from the newsletter. We’ll be back to our normal schedule on Sunday but only for a few days, as I’ve got to do a bit of traveling late next week and I’ve decided to incorporate that into FX’s annual summer break. I’ll go into more detail on Sunday.
TODAY IN HISTORY
July 3, 1863: The Union Army of the Potomac defeats the Confederate Army of Northern Virginia at the Battle of Gettysburg. Their defeat ended a brief Confederate invasion of the north and, combined with the Union victory at Vicksburg, Mississippi, a day later, is often considered the turning point of the US Civil War.
July 3, 1866: The Battle of Königgrätz, the key engagement in the Austro-Prussian War, ends with a decisive Prussian victory. The Austrian army had already suffered a series of defeats and its commander, Ludwig von Benedek, appealed to Emperor Franz Joseph I to make peace with the Prussians but was rebuffed. He drew up his forces for what amounted to a last stand against the far more effective Prussians, and while initially the Austrians held their own against the Prussian First Army and the Army of the Elbe, the arrival of the Prussian Second Army proved too much for the Austrians to handle. The war ended a few weeks later and established Prussia as the dominant German state, paving the way for German unification under Prussian auspices.
July 3, 2013: A military coup led by then-Defense Minister Abdel Fattah el-Sisi overthrows the Egyptian government of Mohamed Morsi, ending a brief experiment in democracy and returning Egypt to military rule. Morsi had been elected president in 2012, after Egypt’s Arab Spring uprising the previous year had toppled the dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak and the Muslim Brotherhood emerged as the country’s strongest political party. But opposition politicians never fully accepted the Brotherhood’s electoral victories, and a combination of other factors including economic weakness, a rise in terrorist incidents, and foreign financing from the UAE brought about the emergence of a protest movement called “Tamarod” (“rebellion”) by late April 2013. The Egyptian military, which regarded Morsi as a threat to its own economic interests, seized upon the (at least somewhat astroturfed) protests as a pretext to remove Morsi from power. Subsequent protests in support of Morsi were met with brutal suppression, with hundreds of people killed in the crackdown.
MIDDLE EAST
TURKEY
The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) confirmed on Thursday something that had been reported earlier this week: a group of its fighters in northern Iraq will surrender their weapons later this month to mark the symbolic start of the organization’s disarmament process. The event is scheduled to take place sometime between July 10 and July 12 in the Iraqi Kurdish city of Sulaymaniyah. However, there may already be some challenges emerging in the overall peace process. Senior PKK official Mustafa Karasu told Kurdish media on Wednesday that there is “a group at the heart of the [Turkish] state” that “is seeking to sabotage the process.” He went on to say that Ankara “has not taken the needed steps” for the PKK to move forward, presumably because it has continued to attack PKK positions in northern Iraq and it has done nothing to ease the conditions of PKK founder Abdullah Öcalan’s imprisonment.
SYRIA
I don’t want to make too much of this, but Israel’s i24NEWS outlet reported (I would not click on that link unless you have a good ad blocker installed, just FYI) on Thursday that Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa is demanding significant concessions in return for agreeing to normalize relations with Israel. Most prominent among them is the return of at least one-third of the Golan—not the part the Israeli military (IDF) seized following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad in December but the part the IDF seized back in 1967 that Israel now claims to have annexed. Really he’s supposedly demanding the return of two-thirds of that territory, albeit with the possibility that Israel could “lease” part of it from Damascus, but he’s willing to settle for one-third if Syria were also given big chunks of Lebanon—including the city of Tripoli, other territory in northern Lebanon, and part of the Beqaa Valley.
This stuff is so fanciful that I’m tempted to say it’s fake news, but the explanation Sharaa has allegedly offered—that he would need to claim a significant victory for agreeing to normalize relations with Israel lest his jihadist supporters turn on him—does make sense. Nevertheless it’s unclear what he has to offer the Israelis to get them to give up part of the Golan—the piece mentions the prospect of a water pipeline from the Euphrates to Israel so I guess that’s one possible carrot for the Israelis—and it’s really unclear how carving up Lebanon is supposed to fit into this process or how it could possibly be justified legally.
LEBANON
The IDF killed at least one person and wounded three more in a drone strike on a car just outside of Beirut on Thursday. Israeli officials described the target as “a saboteur who was involved in arms smuggling and advancing terrorist plots against Israeli citizens and the Israeli Defense Forces on behalf of Iran’s Quds Force.” It’s unclear whether this person was among the casualties.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The Gaza Government Media Office reported on Thursday evening (local time) that the IDF had killed more than 300 people over the previous 48 hours. Thursday’s IDF targets included the Mawasi displaced persons camp and a school-turned-shelter in Gaza City. At least 45 Palestinians were killed while awaiting humanitarian aid on Thursday, five in another shooting incident near a “Gaza Humanitarian Foundation” distribution point and 40 awaiting United Nations aid trucks.
Meanwhile, Haaretz is reporting that Hamas officials “expressed satisfaction with the wording” of the latest US-backed Gaza ceasefire framework. In particular their satisfaction has to do with the prisoner release aspect of the proposal, which would see the group free 10 living captives (of 20 still believed to be alive) and the bodies of 18 deceased captives in multiple stages over the course of an initial 60 day truce. Presumably they feel this pacing will force the Israeli government to remain engaged in negotiations on a succeeding indefinite ceasefire. Hamas still hasn’t signed off on the framework and apparently still has issues with its language around humanitarian aid and those ceasefire talks, as well as the parameters of the IDF’s withdrawal from Gazan territory and the circumstances under which the Israelis could quit the talks and resume military activity. On these points Hamas officials have told Drop Site that the new proposal is more or less the same as previous proposals, meaning among other things that there’s no reason to expect the Israelis to maintain their ceasefire beyond that first 60 days.
In the West Bank, the IDF has announced a new demolition operation involving over 100 buildings in the Tulkarm refugee camp. Some 400 Palestinians fled the camp on Wednesday following the announcement. The Israeli Supreme Court suspended the operation late Wednesday but the displacement had already taken place and there’s no indication that any of those who fled has returned. The IDF claims that it needs to destroy these buildings to conduct counterterrorism operations in the camp.
IRAN
Trump administration envoy Steve Witkoff is reportedly planning to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oslo sometime next week in an attempt to revive the nuclear negotiations that the IDF and later the US military violently ended last month. There’s no date as yet for this potential meeting but it sounds like Araghchi has agreed in principle to participate, which is a bit of a shift from his reticence about negotiations in the immediate wake of the “12 Day War.” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi told NBC News on Thursday that Tehran is open to resuming diplomacy under assurances that the US and Israel will not start bombing Iran again while any new talks are ongoing. He also said that Iran’s “policy has not changed on enrichment,” the major sticking point in the prewar rounds of talks.
The US Treasury Department on Thursday blacklisted several entities, including a number of companies and shipping vessels, allegedly connected with Iran’s oil exports. This marks the first new round of Iran-related designations made by the Trump administration since the “12 Day War” ended. At the center of Thursday’s action is an Iraqi businessman named Salim Ahmed Said, whose firms US officials have accused of blending Iranian oil with Iraqi oil to facilitate its sale despite US sanctions. And there are reports of a crackdown by Iranian authorities that prompted Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi to tell The Wall Street Journal that she believes the conflict actually set back the cause of political reform in Iran:
“The situation for Iranian people is more dangerous now than before the war,” Narges Mohammadi, who in 2023 received the Nobel Peace Prize for her three-decade fight for democracy, told The Wall Street Journal. The interview was conducted in writing because of the poor internet connection in the village outside Tehran where she sheltered from the bombings.
When the Islamic Republic has been under pressure in the past, it has cemented its authority by rallying supporters around the flag and stifling dissent. The government has marginalized reformist politicians, suppressed protest movements and imprisoned, executed and exiled activists.
“I am deeply concerned about the situation of civil society activists, political activists, and especially youths who are active in social activities,” Mohammadi said. “Unfortunately, I think the repression will intensify further in the coming days.”
Scores of Iranians have been arrested on allegations of espionage for Israel and complicity in the attacks since last week’s cease-fire. Six were executed after hasty trials. Allegations of espionage have been leveraged in the past at opposition activists.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
The Russian government formally accepted the credentials of Afghan ambassador Gul Hassan Hassan on Thursday, making it the first country to officially recognize Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government. The Taliban has been able to carve out limited diplomatic ties with several other countries including China, Pakistan, and the UAE, but this is definitely a milestone and a significant achievement for Kabul. It will likely be followed by recognition from other countries—China and Pakistan seem like safe bets, for example.
THAILAND
Thailand has a new acting prime minister, as Interior Minister Phumtham Wechayachai assumed that post on Thursday. In doing so he became the third PM Thailand has had in as many days, following the Constitutional Court’s decision to suspend Paetongtarn Shinawatra on Tuesday. Deputy PM Suriya Juangroongruangkit assumed the office initially, but apparently the cabinet decided collectively to promote Phumtham at its first meeting after being sworn in by Thai King Maha Vajiralongkorn. Paetongtarn apparently remains in the cabinet in the position of culture minister while the ethics case against her proceeds.
SOUTH KOREA
South Korea also got itself a new prime minister on Thursday, as parliament confirmed new President Lee Jae-myung’s choice of Kim Min-seok for that office. Kim is apparently known for having predicted last August that former President Yoon Suk-yeol might declare martial law—which he did, about three months later. He’ll be trying to bring that predictive ability to managing the South Korean economy.
AFRICA
SUDAN
Doctors Without Borders issued a new warning on Thursday about “Sudan’s collapsed healthcare system”:
Humanitarian organizations are sounding the alarm over attacks on healthcare facilities across Sudan, warning that they are happening amid what they describe as ongoing mass atrocities against civilians.
Doctors without Borders — also known as Médecins Sans Frontières or MSF — said Thursday that 70% of medical facilities in Sudan have either closed or are barely operational with no end to the war in sight.
Sudan’s civil war broke out in April 2023 after simmering tensions between the Sudanese army and its paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), escalated to fighting across the country. Some 40,000 people have been killed and nearly 13 million displaced, including to other countries, according to U.N. agencies. War has left many facing food insecurity and risk of famine and exposure to disease outbreaks like cholera, which remains hard to contain due to Sudan’s collapsed healthcare system.
In a report released Thursday titled ’Besieged, Attacked, Starved’, MSF warned that access to healthcare is nearly impossible due to systematic attacks, while the remaining operational facilities remain under constant threat.
MALI
The Malian junta’s facsimile of a parliament voted on Thursday to grant junta leader Assimi Goïta a new five year, infinitely renewable term as a facsimile president. This was one of the recommendations made by the junta’s “national dialogue” conference back in April. If this is not a death knell for any sort of return to democratic governance in Mali then it is at least a major step in that direction. Goïta will now rule the country sans mandate until at least 2030 and most likely until he’s forced by circumstance to stop ruling it, whether that’s one day or 40 years from now.
NIGERIA
Islamic State West Africa Province fighters attacked a displaced persons camp in a town in northeastern Nigeria’s Borno state on Thursday, killing at least 11 people according to the Multinational Joint Task Force coalition that conducts anti-jihadist operations in the Lake Chad region. The previous day, members of the Islamic State-linked Lakurawa militant group attacked a village in northwestern Nigeria’s Sokoto state and killed at least 17 people. That attack appears to have been retribution for the killing of three Lakurawa fighters during a raid on the same village several days ago.
ETHIOPIA
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced on Thursday that work on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has been completed. He’s apparently scheduled the official opening ceremony for September. Without rehashing years of controversy the GERD’s position on the Blue Nile has raised serious concerns about its potential effect on downstream water levels for the government of Egypt and what passes for the government of Sudan. Multiple rounds of negotiations between those three countries after construction began in 2011 failed to reach an accord and tension over the dam remains high—witness the Egyptian government’s less than enthusiastic response to Abiy’s announcement. The dam began limited operations in 2020 and started producing electricity in 2022 and at least so far the region has not descended into a water war, but the lack of any sort of agreement governing its operations—particularly in times of drought—means that the dam will continue to be a potential flashpoint among the Nile states.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
The Congolese government and the M23 rebel group are reportedly sending their negotiators back to Qatar for another round of peace talks. This would be the first round of these negotiations to take place since the Congolese and Rwandan governments signed a US-brokered peace accord last week. That accord, if actually implemented, would potentially leave M23 without the Rwandan backing that has been central to their most recent offensive in the eastern DRC’s North and South Kivu provinces. That could leave the militants a bit more eager to make a deal than they might have been previously.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin had another of their periodic phone calls on Thursday in which they appear to have made absolutely no progress toward resolving the war in Ukraine. Specifically, according to the Russian government Putin assured Trump that he “will not back down” from his maximalist demands for a negotiated settlement. He does apparently want a “negotiated end” to the war but more in the form of a Ukrainian surrender than anything that might be considered a compromise.
The deputy commander of the Russian Navy, Mikhail Gudkov, was killed in combat in Russia’s Kursk oblast on Thursday, apparently the victim of a Ukrainian missile strike. He’s one of the senior-most Russian military officers killed in this war to date.
UKRAINE
In Ukraine, meanwhile, the Russian military claimed the capture of a border village, Milove, in Kharkiv oblast. This village is apparently located along a part of the border where Russian forces had not previously crossed, so there is some risk that this foothold could open a new front in the Russian invasion.
AMERICAS
COLOMBIA
The bad blood between the US and Colombian governments got a bit worse on Thursday when the Trump administration recalled US chargé d’affaires John McNamara from Bogotá and Gustavo Petro’s government recalled ambassador Daniel García-Peña from Washington. The US State Department said that it decided to recall McNamara “following baseless and reprehensible statements from the highest levels of the Government of Colombia.” It did not offer any further explanation, though this latest spat comes in the wake of allegations that former Colombian Foreign Minister Álvaro Leyva was involved in a scheme to oust Petro that involved “Colombian and American politicians.” Petro called it “a conspiracy with drug traffickers and apparently, the Colombian and American extreme right,” which the Trump administration might have taken personally.
Petro’s foreign minister, Laura Sarabia, resigned on Thursday ostensibly over a dispute around passport printing. In a social media post she said that “decisions have been made that I do not agree with,” which may simply allude to the passport issue but could also have something to do with the Leyva situation or whatever sparked this new breakdown in relations with the US.
UNITED STATES
Finally, you’ll no doubt be as pleased as I was to learn, via Responsible Statecraft, that key members of Joe Biden’s crack national security team have been able to land on their feet in the private sector:
In 2021, Ret. Gen. Lloyd Austin declared he had “no intent to be a lobbyist.” On June 3, less than six months after leaving office, former President Joe Biden’s Secretary of Defense announced that he would be launching a new strategic advisory firm called “Clarion Strategies.” Some Senators allege this is simply lobbying by another name.
A pitch deck obtained by Politico noted that Clarion Strategies’ name is a “nod to its aim to equip clients with the clarity they need to navigate geopolitical upheaval driven by the war in Ukraine, advancements in defense technology like AI and unmanned systems, global trade shifts and emerging alliances among U.S. adversaries like Russia, China, North Korea and China.” In other words, the new firm is very much hoping to court clients from the defense industry.
It won’t have too much trouble — Clarion Strategies is equipped with an all-star roster of Biden administration officials that, in addition to Austin, includes former Secretary of Veterans Affairs Denis McDonough, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner, and former U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO Julianne Smith.
By classifying himself as a “strategic adviser” rather than a “lobbyist,” Austin can do all the things an actual lobbyist would do without triggering any legal repercussions around the issue of former executive branch officials lobbying their former agencies. It’s a handy loophole, one that Biden actually tried to close for very senior officials like cabinet secretaries but that Donald Trump, ironically, reopened just in time for Austin to take advantage.