World roundup: July 18 2024
World roundup: July 18 2024
Stories from Israel-Palestine, Kenya, Ukraine, and elsewhere
This is the web version of Foreign Exchanges, but did you know you can get it delivered right to your inbox? Sign up today:
TODAY IN HISTORY
July 18, 1195: The Almohad Caliphate defeats a Castilian army at the Battle of Alarcos in southern Spain. The victory strengthened the Almohads position in Iberia, though political unrest back in their North African heartland limited their ability to capitalize on their success.
July 18, 1290: English King Edward I (also known as Edward “Longshanks”) issues his Edict of Expulsion, forcing an estimated 16,000 Jews out of England. Edward, financially broken by wars on the Continent, cut a deal with English nobles in which he traded the expulsion of the Jews for the right to levy new taxes (the chance to seize abandoned Jewish property must also have appealed to him). But he was also building on a long tradition of English anti-semitism, much of it the product of his father’s (Henry III) reign. The edict’s ban on Jews living in England lasted until Oliver Cromwell lifted it in 1657.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected calls for a ceasefire and prisoner exchange on Wednesday, insisting that nine-plus months of carnage in Gaza has allowed the Israeli military (IDF) to take Hamas “by the throat” and that this is “exactly the time to increase the pressure even more.” Netanyahu’s main concern is not actually for anything happening in Gaza but for appeasing his own coalition partners in order to maintain his premiership. One of those partners, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, increased his own pressure on Netanyahu on Thursday by visiting Jerusalem’s al-Aqsa compound (which is a provocation in itself) to “pray” that the PM rejects any ceasefire deal. The carnage in Gaza is continuing unabated and at this point there is really no reason to believe that Netanyahu will ever agree to a ceasefire in good faith. There never was, to be clear, but the writing is blatantly on the wall at this point.
The Israeli Knesset voted conclusively (68-9) on Thursday morning to reject any prospect of Palestinian statehood. This is not the first time the Israeli parliament has taken a vote like this, but as with the ceasefire situation this vote could be a clarifying moment for those who still pretend that there is a viable “two-state solution” on the table to acknowledge that the Israeli political establishment. That opposition runs the gamut, as Knesset “centrists” (like US favorite Benny Gantz) joined the right and far right in opposing statehood. Even the center-left and nominally left elements of that establishment opted to skip the vote rather than express any sliver of support for the idea of a Palestinian state.
Back in Gaza, meanwhile, a new report from Oxfam says that the Israeli government has reduced the amount of water available to Gaza’s population to 4.74 liters per day per person, or less than one-third of recommended minimum levels. This is not an unfortunate side effect of the violence but the result of deliberate decisions by Israeli authorities to cut off Gaza’s water supply and attack, repeatedly, its water, power, and sanitation infrastructure. Overall, conditions in Gaza have deteriorated to the point where the UN and the Israeli government have detected traces of poliovirus in sewage samples. Israeli authorities say they’re doing everything they can “to prevent the risk of disease in Israel.” They’re also doing everything they can to cause disease in Gaza, but I digress.
SYRIA
To I assume no great surprise, Syria’s ruling Baath Party won Monday’s parliamentary election, the results of which were announced on Thursday. The party put forward 185 candidates and, wouldn’t you know, all of them won their races. The assembly’s remaining 65 seats will be split among the various smaller parties and independents.
LEBANON
Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon killed at least five people in total on Thursday. Lebanon’s Islamic Group militant faction and Hamas both acknowledged the death of an Islamic Group commander in one strike in eastern Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley region. A strike in southern Lebanon killed one Hezbollah member, while a second strike in that region killed at least three people whose identities are unclear.
IRAN
The heat index in the southern Iranian city of Asaluyeh has hit 149 degrees Fahrenheit for two straight days, based on temperatures of 108 degrees on Wednesday and 106 on Thursday. Elsewhere, Dubai saw its head index hit 144 degrees on Tuesday based on a high temperature of 113. The excessive heat is mostly due to a combination of a heat dome and soaring water temperatures in and around the Persian Gulf, and while the former will dissipate at some point the latter is more or less here to stay thanks to climate change. Bearing in mind that weather is not climate, these conditions approach uninhabitable levels and they’re becoming an annual summer tradition in the Persian Gulf region.
ASIA
BANGLADESH
Student protests over civil service job quotas grew even more violent on Thursday, as rioters reportedly set fire to the headquarters of Bangladesh’s main public broadcaster, BTV, in Dhaka. At least 25 people were killed across the country on Thursday, bringing the overall death toll in four days of unrest to at least 32. AFP is reporting that “at least two-thirds” of those deaths appear to have been caused by “police weaponry,” though clashes between pro- and anti-government student groups may also have caused some of the casualties. Authorities have reportedly shut down Bangladesh’s mobile internet in an attempt to quell the demonstrations. At particular issue is a requirement that the Bangladeshi government reserve 30 percent of civil service posts for families of people who fought in the country’s 1971 war for independence from Pakistan, though more general opposition to Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is undoubtedly also fueling the protests.
VIETNAM
The Vietnamese Communist Party announced on Thursday that General-Secretary Nguyễn Phú Trọng is “stepping back” from official duties due to ill health. The way this announcement was phrased makes it sound like it could be temporary, but given that Trọng is 80 and hasn’t been in good health for some time it feels more like the first step toward his full retirement. The reader is free to draw any parallels that seem appropriate between this situation and any situations that might be facing other governments around the world. Vietnamese President Tô Lâm is assuming Trọng’s responsibilities and is generally regarded as his heir apparent as party leader.
CHINA
At World Politics Review, the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Lizzi Lee compares the different approaches adopted by the US and Chinese governments to try to secure their semiconductor supplies and argues that both of them may wind up failing:
The evolving semiconductor policies of the U.S. and China reflect a broader trend toward greater state involvement in the economy, driven by the recognition that global economic competition involves strategic management of national resources and capabilities. However, the goal of reducing vulnerability by achieving self-sufficiency through industrial policies warrants scrutiny. Despite efforts for self-reliance in semiconductor manufacturing, the industry’s global nature ensures that no country can operate independently.
The U.S., with its substantial resources and expertise, has attracted advanced chipmakers and built new plants, but still relies on imports from Asia and Europe. Isolating supply chains will increase costs and complicate logistics. So while the U.S.— and Europe—seek to boost homegrown production, international cooperation remains essential.
China’s ambition for an indigenous semiconductor supply chain similarly confronts the reality that true self-sufficiency is unattainable. To the contrary, its significant investments in semiconductor capabilities highlight the necessity of interconnected global supply chains. To really thrive, China must instead cultivate robust trade relationships and address trade disputes and technological barriers through innovation, diplomacy and collaboration.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The New Arab’s Elfadil Ibrahim wonders if the Sudanese military might be on its last legs:
Sudan’s war, which began in the capital Khartoum, has now spread to 10 of Sudan’s 18 states, with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) overrunning Sudanese army garrisons in eight state capitals.
The RSF is also currently laying siege to El Fasher in North Darfur, marking an attempt to capture the army’s final stronghold in the country’s western region of Darfur. This escalation has garnered significant international condemnation.
The recent seizure of El-Fula, the capital of West Kordofan state, and most of Sennar state by the RSF has also revived fears that they could capture the whole country.
At least since the coup that brought former President Omar al-Bashir to power in 1989, the Sudanese military has been more a political and business organization than a military one. RSF fighters were more seasoned, better trained, and better equipped than the regular military, and they’ve been able to overcome the military’s paper advantages in heavy armor and air power by capturing materiel from the military and courtesy of its international support network (primarily the UAE).
KENYA
Kenyan authorities attempted to ban protests in downtown Nairobi on Thursday, an order that the High Court of Kenya quickly suspended pending a court challenge. Anti-government demonstrations have gripped the Kenyan capital for several weeks now, initially over President William Ruto’s tax increase plan but more recently (and since his decision to scrap that plan) over broader demands for government reform and Ruto’s resignation. At least 50 people have been killed in the course of this unrest.
For Ruto’s part, after sacking his cabinet last week failed to quell the protests he’s now taken to blaming the Ford Foundation. Earlier this week he accused the US-based organization of funding “violence” and “anarchy.” There doesn’t seem to be any merit to the allegation though several of his more prominent political opponents do apparently have Ford ties. The Ford Foundation has had links to the CIA going back to the Cold War, but Ruto is essentially the linchpin of US policy in Africa right now so it’s hard to understand what rationale there would be for Ford to try to undermine his presidency intentionally. More likely, a frustrated and possibly desperate Ruto is just grasping for some boogeyman he can blame for problems of his own making.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
The Congolese government and M23 rebel group have reportedly agreed to extend their temporary humanitarian ceasefire for another 15 days. The ceasefire went into effect on July 5 and had been set to end on Friday. This extension comes despite reports of new clashes in North Kivu province this week. AFP is reporting that those clashes were not directly between M23 and the Congolese military, so on that basis they presumably didn’t violate the ceasefire.
EUROPE
EUROPEAN UNION
The European Parliament reelected Ursula von der Leyen to a second term as European Commission president on Thursday. Please try to contain your excitement. Von der Leyen has stressed maintaining the EU’s green energy transition and reducing its military dependency on the United States as aims for her second term.
RUSSIA
The trial of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich resumed in Yekaterinburg on Thursday, weeks ahead of schedule. The court is now aiming to wrap the entire proceeding up on Friday. This sudden haste—Gershkovich has been in custody since March 2023 and Thursday was the first actual evidentiary proceeding in his case—strongly suggests that the Russian and US governments are at least close to an agreement on a prisoner exchange, if they haven’t already agreed. That exchange could take place as soon as Gershkovich is convicted (which is a foregone conclusion).
UKRAINE
The Ukrainian military confirmed on Thursday that its forces have withdrawn from the village of Urozhaine in Donetsk oblast. Russian officials claimed the capture (or recapture, as they’d also held it earlier in the war before losing it to the Ukrainians) of Urozhaine several days ago. Of potentially greater significance, Ukrainian forces appear to have lost their foothold on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine’s Kherson oblast. Russian forces attacked and apparently destroyed Ukrainian defensive positions around the village of Krynky late Wednesday, and while it’s unclear whether the Ukrainians have completely withdrawn to the western bank of the river yet it’s unlikely they’ll be able to maintain a presence on the eastern bank with their fortifications destroyed. The Ukrainians seized a beachhead on the eastern bank around Krynky last fall, raising the possibility that they could threaten Russian positions in Crimea, but were never able to exploit it.
FRANCE
In a first test of France’s newly-fragmented parliament, National Assembly President Yaël Braun-Pivet was reelected to that role on Thursday. Braun-Pivet is a member of French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance, which is now the second-largest bloc in the legislature behind the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) coalition. It took three rounds of voting before Braun-Pivet narrowly defeated NFP candidate André Chassaigne with the support of several conservative legislators. The result doesn’t necessarily mean anything in terms of the selection of a new prime minister to replace the outgoing Gabriel Attal, though if Macron thinks that he’s got a functional center-right coalition that can win a confirmation vote he’ll be less likely to try to reach a compromise with the NFP.
AMERICAS
UNITED STATES
Finally, the Stimson Center’s Dan Grazier, Julia Gledhill, and Geoff Wilson lay out the unsustainable course of US military spending:
The United States’ civilian and uniformed military leaders have created a budgetary time bomb set to explode in the next twenty years. Over the past several years, the military services have committed to a slew of new big-ticket weapon programs now in development. As these programs mature and enter production, national security spending is expected to increase to cover the costs. With weapons growing increasingly more technically complex, the ownership costs to maintain them over the long run could make an already challenging fiscal situation even worse.
To understand future trends, we can look at the growth of US defense spending over the past 50 years. In 1975, defense spending totaled $92 billion ($521 billion in 2023). By 2000, the Pentagon’s budget grew to $320 billion ($566 billion in 2023), representing a 7.41% growth in the last quarter of the 20th century. However, defense spending exploded in the post 9/11 era. The Biden administration recently requested $850 billion to fund the Pentagon in 2025. Adjusted for inflation, defense spending has increased more than 48% in just the first 24 years of this century.
Today, the United States spends more money on defense than it did during the peaks of the Korea, Vietnam, and Cold Wars, even after ending the longest war in our history three years ago.
In addition to the future spending commitments already in place, there are efforts to further increase Pentagon spending. Senator Roger Wicker (R-MS) released a report in May 2024 calling for a “generational investment to revitalize our armed forces” by raising defense spending to 5% of the Gross Domestic Product. Setting arbitrary spending levels rather than crafting rational defense policies sets the US on course to spend even more money on failed programs and ineffective strategies. By 2050, the American people may look back fondly on the “good old days” when the annual Pentagon budget was still under a trillion dollars.