World roundup: January 9 2025
Stories from Israel-Palestine, Ukraine, Venezuela, and elsewhere
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TODAY IN HISTORY
January 9, 1822: Prince Pedro of Portugal, Brazilian regent for his father King João VI, rejects an order from Portugal to dissolve Brazil’s government and return home. The order had been arranged by Portuguese general Jorge de Avilez, who wanted to force Pedro out of Brazil so that he could govern the country himself, but when Avilez subsequently mutinied he and his forces were defeated and forced to leave Brazil. This incident kicked off the series of events that led to Pedro’s coronation as Emperor Pedro I of Brazil in October and the subsequent Brazilian War of Independence.
January 9, 1916: The Gallipoli Campaign ends
January 9, 1917: The Battle of Rafah ends with the UK defeating the last Ottoman defenders in Egypt. Rafah drove the Ottomans out of Egypt and marked the close of the Sinai portion of World War I’s Sinai/Palestine Campaign, which began with an Ottoman attack on the Suez Canal in late January 1915 and would end with the Allied capture of Aleppo in October 1918.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya told reporters on Thursday that 52,622 Syrian refugees have returned home in the month since militants ousted Bashar al-Assad’s government. That includes over 20,000 just since December 27, the last time the Turkish government issued an update like this. This is a small fraction of the more than 3.5 million refugees believed to be in Turkey, but it’s a pretty rapid pace and will presumably go over well with a Turkish public that has shown growing intolerance over the past couple of years.
New fighting between the Turkish-backed “Syrian National Army” coalition and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces group around Manbij left at least 37 people dead on Thursday, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. At least six SDF fighters and five civilians were among the dead. The SOHR says it’s tallied at least 322 fatalities related to SNA-SDF clashes in the Manbij area since Assad’s ouster. It sounds like the US is moving in the direction of abandoning the SDF to Turkey, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken telling reporters on Wednesday that Washington regards Turkish concerns about the SDF (whose Kurdish elements have ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party or PKK) as “legitimate” and echoing Ankara’s demand that “foreign terrorist fighters” (i.e., Kurds from Iran, Iraq, and Turkey) leave Syria in order to settle this conflict.
LEBANON
They said it couldn’t be done, but the Lebanese Parliament finally elected a president on Thursday more than two years after former President Michel Aoun’s term ended. The lucky winner, as expected, is army commander Joseph Aoun (no relation to Michel). He emerged victorious on the second ballot with 99 votes in the 128 seat legislature, well above the two-thirds majority (86 votes) required to create the constitutional exemption that allowed an active duty soldier to be elected president.
Aoun was the preferred candidate of the US, European states, and the Gulf monarchies, but it wasn’t until Hezbollah and its parliamentary allies—their stature somewhat diminished at present for obvious reasons—dropped their opposition to his candidacy that his election actually became feasible. His most immediate priority will also involve Hezbollah, as he’ll be expected to enforce the group’s November ceasefire with the Israeli government. It very much remains to be seen whether the Lebanese military is up to that task and whether the Israelis will hold up their own end of the agreement.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
Reuters, citing “Palestinian sources close to the talks,” is reporting that ceasefire talks “have made some progress,” which is vague enough to mean pretty much nothing after a 24 hour period that’s seen the Israeli military (IDF) kill at least 76 people across Gaza. One of those sources apparently described the negotiations as “extensive” and claimed that “there is a breakthrough when it comes to narrowing old existing gaps” while acknowledging that “there is no deal yet.” At Haaretz, anonymous sources are also talking about new progress over the past couple of days, with one “Israeli source” noting a dearth of leaks emanating from the talks that may indicate the parties are actually trying to reach a deal as opposed to grandstanding.
A new statistical analysis published by The Lancet on Thursday estimates that the real Gaza death toll is 64,260, 41 percent higher than the official count of just over 46,000. It further estimates that 59.1 percent of those killed have been women and children. The study only estimated deaths due to “traumatic injury” so presumably this figure does not include deaths from illness, starvation, exposure, and any of the other threats posed by the Israeli government’s siege. According to Reuters the “study employed a method used to evaluate deaths in other conflict zones, including Kosovo and Sudan.”
ASIA
MYANMAR
The rebel Arakan Army group is accusing the Myanmar military of bombing a village under the AA’s control on Wednesday, killing some 40 civilians and wounding another 20. There’s no confirmation of this claim, though according to the AP a local charity and independent media have also reported that the strike too place and this certainly wouldn’t be the first time Myanmar security forces have killed civilians. Still a grain of salt may be in order regarding the claim that all of the casualties were civilians.
JAPAN
Earlier this month the Biden administration moved to block the purchase of US Steel by the Japanese firm Nippon Steel on national security grounds. The decision has already spawned a lawsuit by both firms, and Foreign Policy’s Keith Johnson suggests it may also have implications for US-Japanese relations:
In Japan, the first presidential block of a proposed Japanese acquisition of a U.S. firm, on alleged national security grounds, was seen as a slap in the face of the United States’ key ally in the Pacific. “It is difficult to imagine a greater blow to the alliance—but now Japan must wonder if such a shock could be in its future,” the Japan Times wrote before Biden formally blocked the bid.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba called for a clear explanation of the alleged national security risk involved in Japanese ownership of a single U.S. steel company, and he hinted that Japanese firms might rethink planned investments in the United States. On Jan. 7, Ishiba met with the head of the Japanese investment company SoftBank, who had pledged to invest $100 billion in the United States over the next four years.
It’s no surprise then that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken headed to Tokyo after his short trip to South Korea, making the rounds in the Japanese capital and underscoring both the health of the bilateral alliance and, more surprisingly, “the United States’ commitment to continuing to deepen our strong economic and trade relationship.” In his meetings with Japanese officials, especially his direct counterpart, Blinken heard the same complaints but stressed the importance of the U.S.-Japanese alliance at a time of rising Chinese provocations in the Asia-Pacific region.
Ultimately the whole thing is likely to blow over—Japan doesn’t have a lot of national security or economic options outside of the US so it can’t make that much hay out of this decision. There’s also the possibility that Donald Trump will reverse Biden’s block, though Trump is also on record opposing the acquisition.
AFRICA
BENIN
An apparent jihadist attack on Wednesday left several soldiers dead in northern Benin’s Alibori department. Details are spotty but Reuters is reporting that the death toll was “around 30” and Beninese military spokesperson Faizou Gomina called it “a very hard blow.”
NIGERIA
Authorities have discovered the bodies of two more soldiers killed in this past weekend’s jihadist attack in northeastern Nigeria’s Borno state, raising the death toll to at least eight soldiers along with at least 34 militants. According to AFP the attackers were affiliated with Islamic State West Africa Province, which is a bit more coherent than the Nigerian government’s previous claim that both ISWAP and Boko Haram fighters were involved.
CHAD
AFP reported that N’Djamena was “calm” on Thursday, after Chadian security forces fended off an attack on the presidential palace the previous evening. The incident left 19 people dead—18 of the 24 attackers and one presidential security guard—and it’s still not entirely clear what prompted it. Chadian officials said on Thursday that the attackers appeared “intoxicated” and were only carrying knives and machetes. But there are also claims circulating that this was a Boko Haram strike and needless to say there’s still a fair bit of uncertainty as to what really happened.
MOZAMBIQUE
Mozambican opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane returned to the country on Thursday for the first time since he fled in the wake of October’s general election. Mondlane maintains that he won the presidential portion of that election, in marked contrast to the official results that had Daniel Chapo of the ruling FRELIMO party winning in a landslide. Mondlane decamped for South Africa amid a violent crackdown against his supporters by Mozambican security forces—a crackdown that resumed on Thursday, as police allegedly opened fire on crowds gathered in Maputo to celebrate his return and killed at least one person.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
A Ukrainian drone strike successfully hit a major oil facility in Russia’s Saratov oblast overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, sparking a fire that was still burning as of Thursday. The facility supports a nearby military airfield that is home to Russia’s strategic bomber fleet. The fire is reportedly under control but it’s unclear how much damage the strike may have caused.
UKRAINE
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin presided over his final meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Germany on Thursday. He did so alongside the announcement of another $500 million aid package from the US and amid rampant speculation about the future of a body that has collectively pledged some $126 billion in aid to Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion.
Noted Ukraine aid skeptic Donald Trump is about to become US president and it’s anybody’s guess how he intends to end the war, as he’s promised to do. It does not, however, appear that he’s going to simply cut Ukraine off cold turkey. The Financial Times is reporting that members of Trump’s transition team have been talking to European officials about continuing military support and Trump himself has gone from promising to end the war within “24 hours” to suggesting that it could be wrapped up in “six months.” If Trump doesn’t want to capitulate totally to Vladimir Putin then he’s going to have to maintain aid or else risk the collapse of the Ukrainian military and the loss of any negotiating leverage. He could even escalate aid, or threaten to escalate, in hopes of getting an extra negotiating edge.
AMERICAS
PERU
A new investigative report from France 24 and several other outlets highlights the role a French bank is playing in the destruction of the Peruvian Amazon:
Sun-scorched lands, lonely polar bears, wind turbines spinning above lush meadows and a voice that warns “the countdown has begun”.
This footage is not part of the latest Extinction Rebellion campaign but instead comes from videos produced by French bank Crédit Agricole. In its PR campaign aimed at presenting a greener image, Europe's third-largest banking group promises to “put pressure” on its clients to “preserve the future of the planet”. But in reality, the bank with over €2,400 billion in assets is still a long way from its goal. It is clearly aware of this, since it is buying up shares and bonds in oil and gas companies in spades; multinationals for whom the future of the planet does not seem to be a priority.
These financial operations, which are not mentioned in Crédit Agricole's promotional videos, transit through a little-known but highly strategic entity for the group: its investment subsidiary Amundi, whose mission is to grow the savings of individuals and capital entrusted by public or private companies. By carrying out a detailed analysis of the investments made by the French banking group, the online investigative media Disclose, in partnership with FRANCE 24 and RFI, discovered that in August 2024, Amundi held €238 million worth of shares and bonds in the Spanish company Repsol. This investment earns Crédit Agricole €10.8 million a year. Last September, another French bank, BPCE, took part in raising almost a billion dollars on behalf of Repsol. The Spanish multinational oil and gas company has a strong presence in Latin America, including in Peru. Since 2006, it has been exploiting a huge gas field in the southeast of the country – right in the middle of the Amazon rainforest.
GUYANA
The Guyanese government said on Thursday that it intends to petition the United Nations International Court of Justice to rule on the Venezuelan government’s latest bid to exert its claim over western Guyana’s Essequibo region. Apparently Caracas is planning to elect a “governor” for the region, which Venezuela has claimed going back to the colonial era and particularly since it held a referendum in December 2023 on the subject of annexation. It’s unclear how the Venezuelan government would even go about “electing” a governor for a region that it doesn’t actually control, but I digress. The ICJ is in the middle of hearing a case over Essequibo’s legal status and any unilateral action (like a regional election) would undermine that process. Guyanese officials are also arguing that it would violate an agreement between Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and Guyanese President Irfaan Ali not to escalate tensions over their territorial dispute.
VENEZUELA
Venezuelan authorities arrested and briefly detained opposition leader María Corina Machado on Thursday when she made a rare public appearance at an anti-Maduro protest in Caracas. Demonstrations have been ramping up for a few days, ahead of Maduro’s third inauguration on Friday. The opposition insists that its candidate, Edmundo González, defeated Maduro in last July’s election (a claim with which the US government agrees) but has no legal recourse to challenge the official result. González fled Venezuela months ago but has suggested he intends to return to the country for the inauguration to restate his claim on the presidency.
UNITED STATES
Finally, the Quincy Institute has launched a new website that tracks funding sources for leading think tanks and the findings are eye-opening:
This brief provides a detailed analysis of a first-of-its-kind, publicly available repository of U.S. think tank funding — www.thinktankfundingtracker.org. The repository tracks funding from foreign governments, the U.S. government, and Pentagon contractors to the top 50 think tanks in the United States over the past five years. It serves as a vital research guide for anyone wishing to learn more about the funding sources of prominent U.S. think tanks.
The repository gives a five-point transparency score to each of the top 50 think tanks in the U.S., a scale created by the authors based on five binary questions. Based on this criteria, nine of the top 50 think tanks (18 percent) are fully transparent, while 23 think tanks (46 percent) are partially transparent. Most concerning, the remaining 18 think tanks (36 percent) are “dark money” think tanks, entirely opaque in their funding without revealing donors.
In the past five years, foreign governments and foreign government-owned entities donated more than $110 million to the top 50 think tanks in the United States. The most generous donor countries were the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and Qatar, which contributed $16.7 million, $15.5 million, and $9.1 million to U.S. think tanks, respectively. The Atlantic Council, Brookings Institution, and German Marshall Fund received the most money from foreign governments since 2019: $20.8 million, $17.1 million, and $16.1 million, respectively.
In that same period, the top 100 defense companies have contributed more than $34.7 million to the top 50 think tanks. The top donors include Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and Mitsubishi, which provided $5.6 million, $2.6 million, and $2.1 million, respectively, to the tracked think tanks between 2019 and 2023. The Atlantic Council, Center for a New American Security, and the Center for Strategic and International Studies were the top recipients of Pentagon contractor money: $10.2 million, $6.6 million, and $4.1 million, respectively.