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Happy 2025 to all and Merry Christmas to those who are celebrating it today!
TODAY IN HISTORY
January 7, 1610: Galileo Galilei mentions in a letter his discovery of three of the four “Galilean moons” (Callisto, Europa, Ganymede, and Io) of Jupiter. This is the first time Galileo is documented having observed the moons, though he apparently hadn’t yet realized what they were. Initially assuming them to be fixed stars, over the days and weeks after writing this letter Galileo determined that they were in fact moons and discovered the fourth one.
January 7, 1942: The Imperial Japanese army lays siege to US and Philippine forces on Luzon Island’s Bataan Peninsula. The beleaguered US and Philippine soldiers held out for a bit over three months, but finally surrendered to Japan on April 9. Some 78,000 soldiers surrendered, 12,000 of them American—one of the largest single surrenders in US military history. Over 20,000 Philippine and hundreds of US prisoners subsequently died in the ensuing Bataan Death March to the city of San Fernando and due to the brutality with which the Japanese military treated the captives.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
International flights resumed at the Damascus airport on Tuesday for the first time since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government a month ago. So there’s a small step toward something that could be considered “normal.” Future steps are likely to continue on a fairly extended timeframe. De facto Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa gave an interview to Saudi Arabia’s Al Arabiya outlet late last month in which he suggested that the political transition toward hypothetical future elections could take upwards of four years. The first step seems to revolve around the organization of a “national dialogue conference,” a process that caretaker Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani said on Tuesday could take a fair amount of time if the aim is to ensure the broadest possible participation.
The US Treasury Department on Monday issued a temporary general license permitting certain types of transactions with the caretaker Syrian government. This is intended to serve as a broad sanctions exemption to permit humanitarian activity without actually removing any sanctions in principle. These sorts of things rarely have the intended effect, because financial institutions are too afraid of the risk that they might overstep the license and face legal retribution, but we’ll see if it works in this case. It will allow the Qatari government to fund Syrian government salaries for this interim period, which should help stabilize things a bit. The Biden administration has also been kind enough to rescind the $10 million bounty that Washington had imposed on Sharaa back when he was running al-Qaeda’s Syrian franchise.
US officials have reportedly expressed to Shibani their concerns about recent attacks targeting Syrian minority groups and, in particular, the Alawite community. Assad himself was Alawite as were many of the most senior members of his government and military, though as a whole the Alawite people don’t seem particularly sorry to see Assad go. Nevertheless there have been several incidents that look like reprisal attacks, possibly fueled by the new government’s efforts to root out former Assad regime officials in several raids that have predominantly focused on Alawite neighborhoods. These incidents, as well as a number of apparent changes the caretaker administration has made to Syria’s educational curricula, have fueled fears that the administration’s moderate public posture will eventually give way to a more hardline Salafi-jihadist style of governance.
LEBANON
I’m sure nobody could have seen this coming, but Haaretz reported late last month that the Israeli military (IDF) is making preparations to remain in southern Lebanon beyond the 60 day withdrawal deadline laid out in its November ceasefire with Hezbollah. There is of course a justification, which is that the Lebanese military isn’t deploying quickly enough to southern Lebanon to meet its obligations under the ceasefire deal. Reuters alleged on Tuesday that the Biden administration is diverting some $95 million that was supposed to go to the Egyptian military to Lebanon instead, which could support the ceasefire and addresses congressional concerns regarding Egypt’s lousy human rights record. And US envoy Amos Hochstein insisted on Monday that the IDF will completely withdraw from Lebanon—though he notably did not say the withdrawal would be completed within the 60 day timeframe.
The Lebanese parliament is scheduled to take another stab at electing a president on Thursday. This time there seems to be some momentum behind the candidacy of Lebanese army commander Joseph Aoun, who has Western support but still seems to be struggling to amass enough votes to win the election and legally probably shouldn’t even be running anyway given his status as the sitting military commander. Lebanon has been without a head of state since Michel Aoun’s (no relation to Joseph Aoun) term ended in October 2022.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
Gaza ceasefire negotiations resumed in Qatar on Saturday, the same day that the IDF killed at least 30 more people across the territory. I think the incongruity says all that needs to be said about this process. Hamas did apparently declare over the weekend that it is prepared to release 34 October 7 captives in the “first phase” of a deal, which could indicate some forward progress, but it apparently cannot guarantee that all 34 are still alive and its leaders are still demanding a full cessation of hostilities and eventual IDF withdrawal from Gaza—two conditions the Israeli government refuses to meet. The Wall Street Journal reported late last month that talks had “hit an impasse” over the permanent ceasefire demand and Israeli objections to the list of Palestinian detainees whose release Hamas is seeking. The resumption of negotiations notwithstanding, there’s no reason that to think the impasse has been resolved.
Inside Gaza, United Nations Organization for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Undersecretary-General Tom Fletcher said on Tuesday that the humanitarian situation is at a “breaking point,” with the IDF continuing to restrict the inflow of aid and repeatedly attacking aid workers. At least eight infants have died of hypothermia in the territory since the onset of winter and there are indications, according to The New Arab, that the IDF is expanding its siege of northern Gaza into Gaza City.
The West Bank is experiencing a new spike in violence after Palestinian gunmen killed three Israelis and wounded eight others outside the Kedumim settlement on Monday. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who is from Kedumim and controls much of Israeli policy in the West Bank, has now called for cities in the territory to be subjected to the same treatment (ethnic cleansing, in other words) that the IDF imposed on Gaza’s Jabalia area a few months ago. Israeli forces killed at least three alleged militants in separate incidents in the northern West Bank on Tuesday and there’s been a spike in settler mob violence targeting Palestinian communities.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that US and Afghan officials are negotiating a politically sensitive prisoner swap that would see the release of three US citizens taken into Taliban custody in 2022. The politically sensitive part has to do with the US end of the bargain, which would involve the release of a Guantánamo Bay detainee named Muhammad Rahim al-Afghani. The US government has alleged that he is/was a “a senior al Qaeda aide” according to the WSJ. The US offered to release him in a three-for-one swap but Afghan officials are apparently pushing for his release along with the release of two other people held by the US in exchange for only two of the US citizens (they deny holding the third), and negotiations are stalled there.
PAKISTAN
The Afghan and Pakistani militaries exchanged hostilities late last month, with the Pakistani military killing at least 46 people in airstrikes on Afghanistan’s Paktika province on December 24 and the Afghan military retaliating with cross-border shelling a few days later. Pakistani officials said they were targeting “terrorist hideouts,” presumably linked to the Pakistan Taliban (TTP). I haven’t seen any information as to casualties in the Afghan response. On Tuesday, Pakistani officials claimed that their security forces had killed at least 19 militants, also presumably linked to the TTP, in three operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. At least three Pakistani soldiers were also killed.
TAIWAN
Taiwanese authorities are investigating whether a Chinese cargo vessel damaged an undersea data cable late last week. The damage doesn’t appear to have meaningfully affected Taiwanese internet service but it does highlight both the vulnerability of Taiwan’s infrastructure and a somewhat worrying trend, given that another Chinese vessel is suspected of having done something similar in the Baltic Sea a few weeks ago.
NORTH KOREA
North Korean state media reported on Tuesday that a weapons test the previous day had involved “a new hypersonic intermediate-range missile.” These reports included a number of unverifiable claims regarding the weapon’s range, speed, and accuracy. Intermediate-range munitions offer North Korea options in terms of targeting Pacific-based enemies, including and most especially US military facilities on Guam. It’s possible, though this is speculation, that Pyongyang is getting technical assistance from Russia in return for North Korea’s alleged support for the Russian war effort in Ukraine.
SOUTH KOREA
South Korea’s Corruption Investigation Office obtained a new warrant for the arrest of impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol on Tuesday, after an initial seven day warrant expired and left Yoon essentially holed up at his residence in Seoul’s swanky Hannam-dong neighborhood. Presidential security blocked police efforts to arrest Yoon under the previous warrant on Friday. Late last month the South Korean parliament also impeached Yoon’s interim replacement, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, leaving Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok as acting PM and acting president. This level of political instability certainly complicates things for the South Korean government, which should be preparing for the presidential transition in the US.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The Biden administration has decided that the Rapid Support Forces group’s activities in Darfur constitute genocide, a determination it announced on Tuesday while unveiling new sanctions against RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo as well as one other individual and seven companies with RSF ties. All seven firms are located in the UAE and accused of helping to arm the paramilitary group. The RSF and its Janjaweed militia auxiliaries—essentially the same cadre of Arab tribes that was largely responsible for the 2003-2005 Darfur Genocide, have been repeatedly accused of carrying out attacks against non-Arab civilian populations across the Darfur region as well as of withholding humanitarian aid from affected communities. The US government has previously accused the RSF (and the Sudanese military) of committing war crimes but this is obviously a significant escalation in that rhetoric.
(Yes I realize there’s a jarring asymmetry in this declaration as compared with Gaza, but anything I say about that will come off as trite and will take away from the fact that while the administration is wrong on Gaza it’s right here.)
GUINEA
Guinean authorities are cracking down amid protests after the country’s ruling junta officially missed its December 31, 2024 deadline for the restoration of civilian rule. The junta agreed to that deadline in 2022 but has made little to no progress toward any sort of transition. The new plan is apparently to hold a constitutional referendum to begin the transition process at a date yet to be determined. Some time before the heat death of the universe, I guess. The opposition Forces Vives de Guinée group says that security forces have killed at least one protester so far and it has called on people in Conakry to stay home as another form of protest.
SOUTH SUDAN
The South Sudanese government is aiming to resume oil production as soon as Wednesday, after the Sudanese government reportedly reopened the pipeline that carries South Sudanese oil to market via Port Sudan on the Red Sea. Sudanese authorities declared force majeure and shut down the pipeline last March after it was damaged amid the military-RSF conflict, but now say they’ve reached “new security arrangements” that should “ensure safe flow of oil” to the port. South Sudan was producing some 150,000 barrels of oil per day prior to the shutdown, and while it will likely take some time to ramp back up to that level any amount of oil exports will provide a boost to the country’s struggling economy.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
The M23 rebel group reportedly seized control of the town of Masisi in the eastern DRC’s North Kivu province over the weekend. That’s one of the group’s most significant conquests since it resumed its uprising back in March 2022. It positions the rebels to make a further advance either on the provincial capital, Goma, or into neighboring South Kivu province.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
The Ukrainian military confirmed on Tuesday that it’s undertaking “new offensive actions” in Russia’s Kursk oblast. The Russian military had reported a new Ukrainian offensive on Sunday. According to Reuters, there are indications of some limited Ukrainian territorial progress over the past couple of days, but the aim may be less to make progress than to demonstrate to incoming US President (and Ukraine war skeptic) Donald Trump that Ukrainian forces still have some fight left in them.
UKRAINE
As ever, Ukraine’s operations in Kursk are having no impact on Russia’s advance in eastern Ukraine. The Russian military claimed on Monday that its forces had finally seized control of the town of Kurakhove, one of Russia’s primary objectives over the past several months. The Russians had already largely encircled Kurakhove and its immediate value after months of intense conflict is questionable to say the least, but it is an important industrial/mining area that Moscow is no doubt interested in exploiting and it’s another part of the Donbas region that is now under Russian control. Its capture may also allow the Russian military to shift additional forces toward Pokrovsk, another primary target.
HUNGARY
The Biden administration on Tuesday blacklisted Antal Rogán, a senior aide to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, over corruption allegations. According to the AP, “Rogán is accused of using his position to broker favorable business deals with government-aligned businesspeople.” US ambassador David Pressman characterized him as “a primary architect, implementer and beneficiary” of the Orban government’s “kleptocratic ecosystem.” Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó characterized the designation as an act of “personal revenge” by Pressman.
AUSTRIA
Austria will likely have a far-right led government soon, so that should be exciting. Historically speaking what could really go wrong? Coalition talks between the second-, third-, and fourth-place finishers in September’s parliamentary election—the People’s Party (ÖVP), the Social Democrats, and NEOS—seemed to be making progress a few weeks ago but broke down a few days ago when NEOS walked away from the table, prompting ÖVP leader and Chancellor Karl Nehammer to resign. Nehammer had been adamantly opposed to joining a coalition led by the first-place finisher in the election, the far right Freedom Party (FPÖ), but his replacement as ÖVP leader, Christian Stocker, apparently does not share that opposition. And so Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen on Monday tapped FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl to lead negotiations on forming a government. In the unlikely event those talks also break down Kickl seems perfectly happy to go to a snap election, given that the FPÖ should emerge victorious again and might even increase its margin of victory.
AMERICAS
HAITI
The UN Human Rights Office says that gang violence killed more than 5600 Haitians last year, an increase of more than 20 percent over 2023 totals, while some 2200 people were wounded and upwards of 1500 abducted. Those figures include some 315 gang members killed by civilian vigilantes and some 280 people the UN says may have been “summarily executed” by police. The UN-backed international police intervention that was supposed to tackle Haiti’s gang crisis remains undermanned and badly underfunded, with the current number of personnel nowhere near the 2500 police officers that were initially promised.
CANADA
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation on Monday in a desperate bid to salvage his Liberal Party’s chances in this year’s general election (which must take place by late October). Trudeau will step down as party leader and PM once the party has chosen his successor. Most polling has the opposition Conservative Party polling 20 or more points ahead of the Liberal Party and Trudeau lagging well behind Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre in terms of who people would like to see as PM. Those numbers suggest that Trudeau is dragging the party down, though how much remains to be seen. As to who will replace Trudeau I am not going to try to handicap the race, but former deputy PM Chrystia Freeland—who resigned last month in a public break with Trudeau—is likely to be the most prominent candidate.

UNITED STATES
Freeland said that she resigned in part because she disagreed with Trudeau’s handling of US President-elect Donald Trump’s threats to impose punitive tariffs on Canadian imports or, alternatively, annex Canada. It must be said that Trump has gone especially batshit in the run up to his second inauguration, even by his own standards. Not only has he expressed designs on Canada, he’s also talked openly about acquiring Panama (or at least the Panama Canal) and/or Greenland (which in fairness is something he also pondered during his first term). Oh, and he also apparently wants to rename the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America” for some reason. That one seems mostly harmless, since no other country would be obliged to honor the “new” name.
While it is true that Donald Trump says a lot of stuff—whatever pops into the cavernous space inside his skull, usually—it is at least a little disturbing that on Tuesday he flatly refused to rule out the use of military force to seize Greenland and Panama (regarding Canada, he seems resigned to relying on economic coercion only). He also sent Donald Trump Jr. to Greenland on Tuesday in what I can only assume was an attempt to punish Greenlanders into submission. Notably, Danish King Frederik X changed his coat of arms earlier this month to give Greenland a more prominent position in it, which is surely aimed squarely at Trump.
Finally, according to The Financial Times Trump aides have also been telling NATO officials that he’s going to demand that alliance members spend 5 percent of their GDP on defense, a figure even the military crazed United States doesn’t come close to reaching (it spent 3.1 percent last year and 3.4 percent in 2020, the last year of Trump’s first term). Apparently he’ll “settle” for 3.5 percent and will offer better trade terms for countries that reach the target. They’re also reportedly saying that Trump intends to continue supporting the Ukrainian military, though for how long and under what terms remains to be seen.