World roundup: January 27-28 2024
Stories from Israel-Palestine, Burkina Faso, Ukraine, and elsewhere
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THIS WEEKEND IN HISTORY
January 27, 1944: The Soviet Red Army finally ends the 872 day Siege of Leningrad by driving off the last German forces still remaining in the vicinity of the city. Whether you go by the highest estimates, which put the death toll north of 5 million; the lowest, which put it around 1.2 million; or somewhere in between, Leningrad was one of the longest and deadliest military encounters in recorded history.
January 27, 1945: Exactly one year later, the Red Army liberates the Nazi concentration/extermination camp complex at Auschwitz, in occupied Poland. The Nazis executed some 1.1 million people at Auschwitz between 1940 and 1945, most of them Jews. In 2005, the United Nations General Assembly designated January 27 as “International Holocaust Remembrance Day.”
January 27, 1973: The United States, North Vietnam, South Vietnam, and the South Vietnamese Provisional Revolutionary Government all sign the Paris Peace Accords, marking the end of the Vietnam War. The deal called for the withdrawal of US forces from Vietnam and the imposition of a ceasefire, plus the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Laos and Cambodia. The ceasefire failed almost immediately, but the US was in no position to stop the eventual fall of South Vietnam in 1975.
January 28, 1077: Holy Roman Emperor Henry IV’s humiliating journey to the Castle of Canossa to beg forgiveness from Pope Gregory VII ends when the pope agrees to grant him an audience. Henry’s penitence was a highlight of the “Investiture Controversy,” during which the emperor and the pope got crosswise over the issue of which of them should have final say over the appointment of bishops in imperial cities. It wouldn’t be resolved until the Concordat of Worms in 1122, which affirmed the Church’s right to choose its own officials but allowed imperial authorities to have some influence on the process.
January 28, 1846: A British East India Company army under Sir Harry Smith defeats a somewhat larger Sikh force at the Battle of Aliwal. The Sikhs lost somewhere around 2000 men, many in a disorganized retreat after the British captured the village of Aliwal and were able to attack the Sikh line from two directions. The victory is seen as crucial to the British victory in the 1845-1846 First Anglo-Sikh War, because it eliminated a Sikh threat to the EIC’s supply lines and allowed its main army to undertake the decisive offensive that brought the conflict to an end.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
According to The New York Times, “American-led negotiators” (the “American-led” part is a bit of a stretch but whatever) are continuing to make progress toward a Gaza ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal. CIA Director Bill Burns was in Paris this weekend discussing the issue with representatives from Egypt, Israel, and Qatar. The basic contours sound like a synthesis of the two frameworks discussed in recent days—the Israeli government’s two-month-and-done ceasefire and Hamas’s preferred one-month-and-extendable version. The synthesized proposal calls for an initial 30 day ceasefire during which Hamas would release all “women, elderly and wounded hostages” and the parties would continue negotiating on a 30 day extension during which Hamas would release “Israeli soldiers and male civilians.” They would in theory continue negotiating through that second window on a potential longer-term cessation of hostilities.
If those talks fail, as seems likely given that the Israeli government has resisted the idea of ending the conflict, the belief is that the Israeli military (IDF) would not be able to resume its Gaza operation at the same level of intensity because of the two month layoff. That seems like quite a leap of logic but far be it from me to question the US officials who have handled this crisis so competently to date. What the deal would in theory offer is an extended window in which to try to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza in ways that could survive the resumption of conflict. Even that is probably a long shot, but still two months without fighting is ipso facto better than the alternative—particularly if it also reduces regional tensions.
Elsewhere:
Maybe it’s a coincidence that this new momentum toward a ceasefire is being reported in the immediate aftermath of the International Court of Justice ruling on Friday that found plausible the claim that the IDF is committing genocide in Gaza and ordered the Israeli government to improve the territory’s humanitarian situation. Or maybe it’s not a coincidence. What is definitely not a coincidence is that the Israeli government on Friday accused United Nations Relief and Works Agency employees of participating in the October 7 attacks in southern Israel. That allegation, apparently based on testimony from Palestinian prisoners in Israeli custody where the likelihood of torture is high, has successfully redirected Western attention away from the ICJ ruling. At last count at least ten UNRWA donor nations (this list plus France), who support upwards of $700 million of the agency’s annual budget, have ostentatiously “suspended” their contributions. None, to my knowledge, have commented substantively on the ICJ ruling.
These countries are defunding the UN’s Palestinian relief organization because of claims that 12 of UNRWA’s ~13,000 Gazan staffers participated in the attacks. UNRWA has already fired nine of them and a tenth has been confirmed dead. Those who survive this conflict may be prosecuted, assuming there’s any legal structure able to take that case. The UN has promised to investigate the Israeli allegations, which at the moment is all it can realistically do because of the ongoing military operation. This move to defund UNRWA right now, in the midst of a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, has almost certainly been coordinated to a) punish the UN for Friday’s court ruling and b) distract from the implications of that ruling. The ICJ made a point of ordering that steps be taken to improve Gaza’s humanitarian situation and this does exactly the opposite. The word “unconscionable” comes to mind.
According to The New York Times one of Hamas’s biggest arms suppliers turns out to be the IDF. Gazan fighters are using arms stolen from IDF outposts on October 7 and militant groups are firing rockets built from the remnants of munitions the IDF has rained down on Gaza in past operations. Using UNRWA as precedent maybe this means Western governments should stop funding the IDF too.
Potential ceasefire notwithstanding, there’s no indication that the ICJ ruling has had any effect on the way the IDF is prosecuting its campaign. There were reports throughout the weekend of “intense” fighting in Khan Younis and heavy Israeli airstrikes on Gaza City to the north. The apparent Israeli failure to meaningfully degrade Hamas’s tunnel network has allowed militants to filter back into northern Gaza as the IDF’s focus has shifted south. There are now reports that the Israeli government has informed its Egyptian counterpart that it intends to shift the campaign still further south to Rafah and the Philadelphi Corridor, along the Gaza-Egyptian border. Cairo has warned that an Israeli move into the border zone could be very bad for a bilateral relationship that is already on shaky ground. Egyptian considerations aside, the question of what all the Palestinians the IDF has now herded into Rafah are supposed to do is so far unanswered.
NBC News reported on Sunday that the Biden administration may actually be thinking about using its leverage to force the Israeli government to change its approach in Gaza. According to this story, the administration “is considering slowing or pausing” offensive weapons shipments to try to “prod the Israelis to take action, such as opening humanitarian corridors to provide more aid to Palestinian civilians.” That it’s taken the administration nearly four months and over 26,000 dead just to get to this milquetoast place is damning, but at least it’s something. The administration is allegedly getting more frustrated with the Israeli government, but it can nevertheless be expected to veto the forthcoming attempt to codify that ICJ ruling in a UN Security Council resolution.
TURKEY
Islamic State has reportedly claimed responsibility for an attack in which two masked gunmen opened fire inside an Istanbul church during Sunday mass, killing one person. There seems to be some question as to whether this was a targeted killing or whether the attackers had planned a mass shooting—local officials have suggested that the attackers’ gun jammed, prompting them to flee.
SYRIA
Local militia fighters killed at least eight IS-aligned militants in southern Syria’s Deraa province on Sunday, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and Syrian state media. A local IS leader appears to have been among the dead.
JORDAN
A drone strike targeting a military outpost known as “Tower 22” in northeastern Jordan overnight killed at least three US military personnel and wounded at least 34. Your first question here might be “say, why are there US soldiers stationed at an obscure base on the Jordanian-Syrian border?” The reason is that Tower 22 serves as a logistical support base for the US garrison at Tanf, in southern Syria. That garrison is in Syria ostensibly as part of the anti-IS coalition but really because squatting on the Iraqi-Syrian border makes them a nuisance to Iran and its regional network. Under the circumstances it comes as no surprise that suspicion is falling heavily on Iranian-supported militias in Iraq and I imagine the US military will be taking retaliatory action against one or more of them soon, perhaps by the time you read this.
IRAN
Unspecified gunmen killed nine Pakistani nationals on Saturday in a shooting in the southeastern Iranian city of Saravan. There’s been no claim of responsibility. Southeastern Iran recently garnered some attention because of the presence of Baluch separatists there, but jihadist militants and criminal traffickers also operate in that area (and there’s considerable overlap between those categories). The Pakistani government said that it’s communicating with Iranian officials with respect to their investigation of this incident.
ASIA
PHILIPPINES
The Philippine military says its soldiers killed at least nine jihadist militants during an operation on Thursday in Lanao del Sur province. An army unit reportedly engaged in a series of clashes against a group of 15 Islamic State-aligned fighters. Among the dead are two suspects in the December 3 bombing that killed four people during a church service on the campus of Mindanao State University. Authorities say the search for the remaining six militants is continuing.
Elsewhere, the Chinese Coast Guard announced via WeChat late Saturday that it had agreed to “temporary special arrangements” permitting the Philippine military to resupply its makeshift naval base in the disputed Second Thomas Shoal. The Philippine government of course regards the shoal as within its waters so presumably it would dispute the notion that it needs China’s permission to supply that facility. What appears to have happened here is that the Philippine military successfully airdropped supplies to the base last weekend, probably to bypass any potential Chinese sea blockade, and this statement was a bit of face saving on the part of the Chinese government.
NORTH KOREA
The North Korean military test fired submarine launched cruise missiles on Sunday, according to state media. The South Korean military had previously reported the launch of several missiles off of North Korea’s east coast. Pyongyang has pursued the development of nuclear-capable submarine-launched missiles alongside the development of submarines that can actually fire them. Nearly all of its fleet is too old for that sort of thing but it did unveil a “tactical nuclear submarine” last year. It’s also still working on developing the kind of smaller nuclear warhead that would be needed for cruise missile deployment.
AFRICA
BURKINA FASO
The military juntas running Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger collectively informed the Economic Community of West African States on Sunday that they’re quitting that body “without delay.” All three have been suspended from ECOWAS anyway, pending transitions back to democratic rule that none of them seem in any particular hurry to make. They are instead pursuing their own integration project, the “Alliance of Sahel States,” which first saw the light of day back in September. Since these are all francophone countries I assume the juntas haven’t noticed the English acronym.
NIGERIA
Six children were killed in northeastern Nigeria’s Borno state on Saturday by an explosive device they had mistaken for scrap metal and were attempting to sell. The bomb was certainly an artifact of the Boko Haram/Islamic State West Africa Province conflict that has gripped Borno and other parts of Nigeria for nearly 15 years.
SOUTH SUDAN
Inter-communal fighting left at least 52 people dead late Saturday in the disputed Abyei region along the Sudanese-South Sudanese border. Local officials say the attackers were ethnic Nuer from South Sudan’s neighboring Warrap state who swarmed through at least three Dinka villages in Abyei and also attacked a UN peacekeeping facility. One peacekeeper was among the dead. The reason for the attack is unclear apart from some vague references to a “land dispute.” Abyei’s status was left undetermined when South Sudan seceded from Sudan in 2011. It’s essentially controlled by South Sudan but efforts to find a legal resolution have proved fleeting.
EUROPE
UKRAINE
The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) revealed on Saturday that it had discovered a $40 million corruption scheme involving arms purchases by the Ukrainian military. Officials in the Ukrainian Defense Ministry and at an obscure military contractor called Lviv Arsenal are accused of embezzling funds meant for the purchase of mortar shells. The company simply took the money and never provided the product. Corruption remains a huge problem for the Ukrainian government and is so endemic that the defense ministry has been implicated in numerous scandals even amid what Ukrainian leaders say is an existential war against Russia.
Elsewhere, Ukrainian officials are insisting that they have received no credible, verifiable proof that the military transport their forces shot down in western Russia on Wednesday actually contained Ukrainian prisoners of war as Moscow claimed. It seems relatives of the 65 POWs supposedly on the aircraft have been unable to identify their loved ones in any of the crash site photos provided by the Russian government. Moscow has not yet indicated whether it intends to repatriate the bodies to Ukraine, which could presumably clear this up.
FINLAND
Finnish voters headed to the polls on Sunday for the first round of their presidential election, looking for a successor to retiring incumbent Sauli Niinistö. With the votes now counted, former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb of the center-right National Coalition Party has won a narrow victory, taking 27.2 percent of the vote to 25.8 percent for former Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto of the Green League. They’ll go to a runoff on February 11. Recent head to head polls have tended to favor Stubb. Finnish presidents share executive authority with the elected prime minister and cabinet but they have greater latitude in areas of military and foreign affairs, which is particularly relevant right now given the war in Ukraine and Finland’s recent accession to NATO.
HUNGARY
European Union member states are set this week to take up the €50 billion Ukrainian aid package that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán blocked at last month’s EU summit. Although Hungarian officials have expressed a new openness to the package in recent days there’s still plenty of reason to think that Orbán will block it again this time around. So the rest of The Gang is considering various ways to punish him for his intransigence should it come to that. According to The Financial Times, one idea under consideration involves threatening to cut off all EU funding for Hungary. The hope is that the threat, which wouldn’t require any potentially uncomfortable votes, would so terrify The Market that the Hungarian economy would be severely damaged as a result. The EU has used funds as a source of leverage against member states in the past but this goes beyond that into almost mafia territory. “Nice economy you got there, it’d be a shame if somebody was to wreck it,” and so forth.
If the financial threat doesn’t force Orbán to back down members could invoke Article 7 of the EU treaty, which would suspend Hungary’s voting rights for “breaching” EU “principles.” Ukraine aside, Orbán has certainly breached several stated EU principles over the years, but there seems to be some genuine reluctance to pull on this cord so I suspect it’s viewed as a last resort.
AMERICAS
VENEZUELA
The Biden administration said on Saturday that it is “reviewing” its Venezuelan sanctions policy in light of the court ruling on Friday that maintained opposition leader María Corina Machado’s ban from electoral politics. Machado is the joint opposition candidate to challenge incumbent Nicolás Maduro in this year’s presidential election. The Biden administration last year cut a deal with Maduro to relax sanctions on Venezuela in return for assurances that said election would be conducted in a Washington-approved “free and fair” manner. Machado’s ban presumably violates the deal, though the administration isn’t yet ready to pull the plug.
UNITED STATES
Finally, Jacobin’s Stephen Semler questions Joe Biden’s stated interest in the safe recovery of Israeli hostages in Gaza:
On Sunday, January 14, President Joe Biden gave a statement marking a hundred days since October 7. Nowhere in the statement did Biden mention Palestinians, including the 24,000 killed, 61,000 injured, 1.9 million displaced, or the 2.2 million at risk of famine as a result of Israel’s US-backed war in Gaza.
Instead, Biden dedicated it to the hostages. “No one should have to endure even one day of what they have gone through, much less a hundred. On this terrible day, I again reaffirm my pledge to all the hostages and their families — we are with you,” the president said.
Like that of John Fetterman and other supporters of Israel’s military offensive, it’s very difficult to read Biden’s concern for the hostages as genuine. A president who truly cared about the safety of hostages held in Gaza would presumably not let it be carpet-bombed. And Biden isn’t just tolerating Israel’s bombing campaign — he’s bending over backward to enable it.
I just realized that the FX logo kind of looks like the skybox in Halo where you can see the ring stretching up into the sky.