World roundup: January 26 2023
World roundup: January 26 2023
Stories from Myanmar, Ethiopia, Ukraine, and elsewhere
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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
January 25, 750: The Battle of the Zab
January 25, 1971: A Ugandan military coup led by General Idi Amin overthrows the socialist regime of President Milton Obote. Amin would rule as a brutally authoritarian dictator until he was ousted during the Uganda-Tanzania War of 1979.
January 26, 1565: The Battle of Talikota
January 26, 1699: The Treaty of Karlowitz
January 26, 1788: The British First Fleet arrives at the future Port Jackson and plants a flag on Sydney Cove, marking the establishment of Britain’s penal colony in Australia. Annually commemorated as Australia Day.
INTERNATIONAL
In today’s global news:
Worldometer is tracking COVID-19 cases and fatalities.
The New York Times is tracking global vaccine distribution.
An asteroid called 2023 BU is set to make a very close pass by Earth sometime this week, according to NASA. It may already have made that pass by the time you read this. By “very close” I mean around 3600 kilometers, which is around satellite territory. There is apparently no chance that the asteroid, which is said to be the “size of a truck,” will collide with Earth, so congratulations or condolences are in order depending on your perspective on the whole “asteroid striking the Earth” thing.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
In their deadliest single West Bank raid since the United Nations began tracking such things, Israeli occupation forces killed at least nine people in a refugee camp in the city of Jenin on Thursday. According to Israeli officials their personnel were after “an Islamic Jihad terror squad” when they came under attack and—all together now—returned fire in self-defense. Palestinian officials identified two of the dead as civilians and the other seven as militants and said that another 20 people were wounded. Israeli forces also shot and killed a Palestinian man near Ramallah amid protests that broke out once people learned of the Jenin incident. The Palestinian Authority announced that it’s suspending security cooperation with the Israelis in response to Thursday’s violence. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is scheduled to visit Israel next week so I’m sure that will fix everything.
In what is very much a developing story, someone (I think it’s safe to assume it was Islamic Jihad) fired two rockets out of Gaza early Friday. Like clockwork, the Israeli military responded with airstrikes targeting what’s being described as a “Hamas training camp.” There are no reports of casualties in this exchange of fire but it remains to be seen whether there will be further exchanges.
BAHRAIN
Bahraini Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa reportedly telephoned Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani on Wednesday in the first sign of a diplomatic reopening between those countries since Bahrain—along with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—ended its blockade/embargo of Qatar two years ago. Egypt and Saudi Arabia have since reestablished diplomatic ties with Qatar and both plus the UAE have reinstated commercial ties, but there’s been no movement on the Qatari-Bahraini relationship. Partly this may reflect some historic bad blood between the Khalifa and Thani families over disputed territory but mostly I think it suggests that restoring relations with Bahrain just isn’t a priority for the Qataris.
IRAN
International Atomic Energy Agency director Rafael Grossi has informed European lawmakers that Iran now has enough highly enriched uranium to fuel “several” nuclear weapons, should Tehran decide to go down that road. Insert your favorite “if only there were some sort of international agreement in place to limit the size and scope of Iran’s enrichment program” joke here.
There’s no evidence the Iranians have enriched any uranium to weapons-grade (90 percent or higher), but it wouldn’t take much time to enrich their stockpile of 60 percent HEU to that level. Needless to say there’s also no evidence that Iranian leaders have decided to produce their own nuclear weapon. Of course, the absence of an actual nuclear weapons program has never stopped the United States from attacking a country on the basis of speculation about a possible nuclear weapons program. Come to think of it, the only thing that’s reliably stopped the US in situations like that is if the country in question acquires a nuclear weapon. There’s probably an uncomfortable lesson there.
ASIA
AZERBAIJAN
The Azerbaijani government is now suing Armenia for environmental damage it claims to have suffered due to Armenian military occupation over the past couple of decades. Armenia’s victory in the first Nagorno-Karabakh war in the 1990s left it in control of the Karabakh region as well as much of the surrounding territory in southwestern Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijanis regained much of that territory after winning the second Karabakh war in 2020 and they’re claiming that they subsequently discovered damage to habitats and natural resources.
A UN Environment Program report issued last year corroborated those claims of environmental damage but also suggested that some of the degradation was caused by Azerbaijan’s postwar rebuilding projects. Nevertheless, Baku is seeking international arbitration over the issue under the terms of the 1979 Bern Convention on the Conservation of European Wildlife and Natural Habitats. This will be the first such case brought under that convention. If the arbiters rule in Azerbaijan’s favor Armenia would be obliged to pay damages as it is a Bern signatory. I guess Yerevan could ignore an unfavorable ruling but that would probably raise tensions in the southern Caucasus at a time when Azerbaijan is in a substantially stronger diplomatic and military position.
PAKISTAN
Pakistani electoral authorities have ordered the governments in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces to hold snap elections for their recently dissolved assemblies by April 13 and April 17, respectively. Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, whose Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party controlled both provincial legislatures, had them dissolved in an effort to force the electoral commission to move Pakistan’s general election forward from its likely date sometime this fall. Since Pakistan generally elects provincial assembles at the same time as the national parliament he apparently figured authorities would move the entire general election rather than schedule separate elections for those provinces. It would seem he was mistaken. Still it sounds like PTI is comfortable with this outcome, since the party’s poll numbers are high and it’s therefore likely to improve on its previous majorities in both provinces.
MYANMAR
Myanmar’s nearly two years of post-coup instability has caused a spike in opium production, according to new data released by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Myanmar’s opium production increased by 33 percent last year and its potential opium yield increased by some 88 percent. Opium production had been on the decline in Myanmar prior to the February 2021 coup that brought the military back into power. Political instability has left Myanmar authorities largely unable to control the drug trade and economic instability has driven people toward lucrative opium poppy farming for lack of viable alternatives.
NORTH KOREA
The UN Command in South Korea reports that the North Korean and South Korean militaries violated the Korean War armistice during an incident on December 26 in which each flew drones into the other’s airspace. North Korean drones crossed into South Korean airspace, triggering a South Korean military response in which it sent surveillance drones into North Korean airspace. South Korean officials are claiming self-defense and there’s been no response to the report from North Korea as yet.
AFRICA
BURKINA FASO
The French government has recalled its ambassador from Burkina Faso for consultations, following the Burkinabè junta’s decision to dissolve a bilateral military cooperation agreement and order French forces to leave the country within a month. The junta had actually requested the ambassador’s recall earlier this month but has said that it is not seeking to cut off diplomatic ties with Paris. The French government may be on the verge of doing that anyway. French counter-terrorism forces currently stationed in Burkina Faso will likely be redeployed to Niger. Public sentiment in Burkina Faso has turned decisively against the French presence and the junta has been moving in Russia’s direction.
ETHIOPIA
The AP, citing a number of “witnesses,” is reporting heavy fighting in recent days between Amhara regional security forces and the rebel Oromo Liberation Army group. According to these accounts the fighting began on Saturday, when OLA militants attacked an Amhara security outpost in the town of Jewuha, killing over 20 people. Fighting has spread to other nearby towns and Amhara officials say they’ve engaged the assistance of federal police and military forces. Thousands of people are reportedly being displaced by the fighting.
Elsewhere, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed visited Sudan on Thursday for the first time since the 2021 coup that ousted Sudan’s transitional government and left the military solely in control in Khartoum. The Ethiopian government’s recently-ended (for now, at least) conflict with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front threatened on a couple of occasions to spill over into Sudan thanks to the refugee crisis the conflict created and the revival of a long-standing border dispute between the two countries. The Sudanese government has also, along with the Egyptian government, been opposed to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project for fears that it will reduce water flows on the Blue Nile and Nile rivers. Junta leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan seemed to indicate that he and Abiy reached an accord on the dam but it’s unclear what that might entail.
SOMALIA
US special forces reportedly killed Bilal al-Sudani, a “financial facilitator” for Islamic State, along with ten other IS fighters in an operation in northern Somalia on Wednesday. Details on this operation appear to be somewhat sparse and so it’s unclear exactly where it took place. US Africa Command has insisted that no civilians were harmed during the operation, though it says that about every US operation in Somalia and frequently it turns out not to be true.
TANZANIA
A new report from The Oakland Institute accuses the Tanzanian government of seizing livestock from Indigenous Maasai herders in the Ngorongoro Conservation Area in an effort to force them out to make way for tourists and trophy hunters. Authorities have tried to portray Maasai relocation programs as voluntary but it’s hard to see how that could be in light of this report and when the government has already been credibly accused of depriving herders of basic needs like access to water and salt sources. They’ve also tried to insist that relocation is being done in the best interests of the Indigenous community but that also rings pretty hollow.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
The M23 militia has reportedly undertaken a new offensive around the town of Kitshanga in the eastern DRC’s North Kivu province, violating a ceasefire that the group agreed to uphold late last year. The renewed fighting has displaced some 450 people and drew a condemnation from the UN’s peacekeeping mission on Thursday. Some of those who have been displaced are indicating that M23 is now in control of the town but that’s unconfirmed as far as I know.
EUROPE
UKRAINE
In news from Ukraine:
The Russian military celebrated the provision of Western tanks to Ukraine with a massive drone and missile bombardment on Thursday that killed at least 11 people and wounded 11 more. The Russians continue to target civilian infrastructure, particularly electrical substations. Russian officials didn’t take the tank news well, characterizing it as further evidence of NATO’s “direct involvement” in the war. It’s difficult to argue that NATO isn’t directly involved at this point but it’s been that way for a while now and the contours of the war haven’t changed. In other words, despite the implicit threat I wouldn’t expect those Russian airstrikes to expand into, say, Poland anytime soon.
UNESCO has designated the historic area of the Ukrainian port city of Odessa as a World Heritage Site and classified it as “in danger” due to the war. The agency fast-tracked consideration of Odessa’s status at the request of the Ukrainian government. The designation doesn’t affect Odessa’s current situation but it could unlock additional funds for reconstruction once the war is over.
The Pentagon is refusing to say whether it intends to send along any depleted uranium armor-piercing ammunition when it starts shipping its Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine. The Bradley is capable of firing such ammunition, which can be very effective against tanks in particular. But depleted uranium is a gift that never stops giving, as its heavy metal toxicity and low level radioactivity have been linked to elevated rates of birth defects, cancers, and other conditions in places where it’s been used.
Whether or not the Ukrainians are about to get their hands on DU munitions, it’s clearer than ever that this war has been an absolute dream come true for US arms manufacturers. According to Responsible Statecraft, defense CEOs are reveling in all the extra revenue in earnings calls with their companies’ shareholders. They’re also giving back to the community, by which I mean those same shareholders, in the form of hefty taxpayer funded dividends and stock buybacks. What a wonderful world.
SPAIN
Spanish police are investigating a possible terrorist attack in the city of Algeciras, where a man with a machete attacked people in two churches late Wednesday, killing at least one person and injuring several others. The attacker has apparently been arrested and identified by local media as Moroccan.
AMERICAS
PARAGUAY
The Biden administration on Thursday blacklisted former Paraguayan President Horacio Cartes and current Paraguayan Vice President Hugo Velázquez, along with four entities linked to Cartes, on corruption allegations. The sanctions could have spillover effects on Paraguay’s presidential election, which will take place on April 30. Former Finance Minister Santiago Peña is the candidate of Cartes’ Colorado Party. Cartes is accused of essentially buying the party’s presidential nomination in 2013 and of bribing legislators while president, including an effort to purchase support for a constitutional amendment that would have allowed him to run for reelection in 2017. The US government also accuses him and Velázquez of ties to Hezbollah.
PERU
A group of Peruvian legislators tabled a motion to impeach interim President Dina Boluarte on Peru’s wonderfully vague “permanent moral incapacity” grounds on Wednesday. In a bit over a month in office Boluarte has shown herself manifestly unfit for the job and unable or unwilling to control Peruvian security forces who have killed dozens of protesters since last month’s ouster of former President Pedro Castillo. She’s unlikely to be impeached, however, as only a rump group of Castillo supporters is backing the effort and the Peruvian Congress is controlled by conservative parties that seem comfortable with Boluarte in office. Police are reportedly preparing to attack roadblocks that protesters have set up on a number of major Peruvian roads, so the casualty count is likely to rise in the coming days.
On Thursday, Boluarte’s government recalled its ambassador from Honduras in response to a remark earlier this week from Honduran President Xiomara Castro in which she referred to Boluarte’s accession to the presidency as a “coup.” The Peruvian Foreign Ministry criticized Castro’s “unacceptable interference” in Peruvian affairs and says the bilateral relationship will continue at sub-ambassadorial levels.
HAITI
Haitian police took to the streets of Port-au-Prince on Thursday, blocking roads, assaulting the home of Prime Minister Ariel Henry, and then attacking the city’s airport as Henry was returning from a visit to Argentina. They’re angry over gang violence that claimed the lives of at least 11 police officers last week and has seen at least 78 police officers killed since Henry assumed power in the wake of former President Jovenal Moïse’s assassination in July 2021. I’m unclear as to where things stand right now. According to Reuters, Henry was able to get from the airport to his residence, where there were reports of gunfire after his arrival.
UNITED STATES
The Biden administration has reinstated environmental protections for Alaska’s Tongass National Forest that had been lifted under the Trump administration. Tongass is the largest national forest in the US and not coincidentally also happens to be the country’s largest carbon sink. The Clinton administration protected large swathes of the forest from road construction and logging and those protections have since been repeatedly lifted and reimposed based on which party controls the presidency.
Finally, the Stimson Center’s Aude Darnal tells Responsible Statecraft that the US government is failing to adjust to a more assertive Global South:
U.S. foreign policy has been quite linked to the idea of U.S. hegemony and the idea that the American model is one that countries should try to replicate. In that sense, there have been some forms of moral superiority when it comes to dealing with U.S. counterparts around the world. Washington has used countries from the Global South as pawns to achieve U.S. interests, rather than treating them like equal partners.
The Biden administration has tried to change the narrative around this with its U.S. Africa strategy that came out in August, and also with the African Leaders Summit in December. But we need to be careful and really monitor how that translates into action.
African states are valuable partners in themselves, but the U.S. has neglected them. We’ve seen it with the war in Ukraine, for instance, with the different votes at the United Nations, where the U.S. and its Western allies had expectations that they would have a global coalition behind them. In March, almost half of African states abstained from or voted against a UN resolution condemning Russia. That was a moment of reckoning. Western countries are losing influence over countries in the Global South.
We are really seeing countries from the Global South speaking quite clearly about their interests. We have many African states saying ‘we do not want to sign on with one power or the other, we want to be able to have partnerships with the different countries involved.’