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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
January 25, 750: The Battle of the Zab
January 25, 1971: A Ugandan military coup led by General Idi Amin overthrows the socialist regime of President Milton Obote. Amin would rule as a brutally authoritarian dictator until he was ousted during the Uganda-Tanzania War of 1979.
January 26, 1565: The Battle of Talikota
January 26, 1699: The Treaty of Karlowitz
January 26, 1788: The British First Fleet arrives at the future Port Jackson and plants a flag on Sydney Cove, marking the establishment of Britain’s penal colony in Australia. Annually commemorated as Australia Day.
INTERNATIONAL
Worldometer’s coronavirus figures for January 26:
100,812,207 confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide (25,821,791 active, +528,285 since yesterday)
2,165,146 reported fatalities (+15,864 since yesterday)
MIDDLE EAST
YEMEN
2119 confirmed coronavirus cases (+1)
615 reported fatalities (+0)
As we mentioned yesterday, the Biden administration has announced a blanket one month sanctions waiver on any transactions involving the Houthis. The administration says it wants time to “review” the Trump administration’s Houthi terrorist designation before it decides whether or not to rescind it, so in the meantime the waiver is supposed to mitigate any harm the designation might cause to humanitarian relief efforts. And it’s probably not going to be enough. The United Nations says it still has reason to believe that Yemeni commerce will be adversely impacted by the terrorist designation even with the waiver in place. This is not terribly surprising—no private company is going to accept even the slightest risk of crossing US sanctions in order to do business in Yemen, of all places. It also puts additional pressure on the administration to stop dithering around with its “review” and just rescind the designation before Yemen’s humanitarian crisis gets any worse.
That humanitarian crisis, by the way, has—according to a new report from UN sanctions monitors—been exacerbated by financial malfeasance on both sides of the conflict:
The monitors said Saudi Arabia deposited $2 billion with the Central Bank of Yemen in January 2018 under a development and reconstruction program. The money was intended to fund credit to buy commodities - such as rice, sugar, milk and flour - to strengthen food security and stabilize domestic prices.
The U.N. investigation found that Yemen’s Central Bank broke its foreign exchange rules, manipulated the foreign exchange market and “laundered a substantial part of the Saudi deposit in a sophisticated money-laundering scheme” that saw traders receive a $423 million windfall.
“The $423 million is public money, which has been illegally transferred to private corporations. Documents provided by the Central Bank of Yemen fail to explain why they adopted such a destructive strategy,” according to the U.N. report.
For their part, the report accuses the Houthis of diverting some $1.8 billion in taxes collected in regions under their control—money that should have gone toward paying public sector salaries and maintaining basic public services—into their own coffers. The report says that “a large portion” of that money went toward fighting the war.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
613,578 confirmed cases (+7213) in Israel, 156,393 confirmed cases (+509) in Palestine
4512 reported fatalities (+14) in Israel, 1803 reported fatalities (+7) in Palestine
Israeli soldiers shot and killed a Palestinian man near the West Bank city of Nablus on Tuesday. He had allegedly attacked the soldiers with a knife.
The Biden administration told the UN Security Council on Tuesday that it will restore US funding to the UN Relief and Works Agency, which handles Palestinian refugee issues. The Trump administration had cut off that funding in an effort to define away the problem of Palestinian refugees and to try to strong arm Palestinian officials into accepting its lopsided Israel-Palestine “peace” deal. The Biden administration is attempting to pivot back to the hallowed “two state solution,” the hope of which is apparently undying even though the actual possibility of creating a viable Palestinian state died decades ago.
SAUDI ARABIA
366,807 confirmed cases (+223)
6359 reported fatalities (+4)
A still unidentified explosion in or over Riyadh on Tuesday has raised speculation of some kind of attempted missile or drone strike on the Saudi capital. The Houthis have of course launched such strikes against Riyadh in the past, though the Houthis explicitly denied involvement in a similar attempt over the weekend and a little-known (essentially unknown, really) Iraqi militia instead claimed responsibility. That “new” militia may just be a front for a more established one, but either way if the claim is true (and if Tuesday’s attack also came from Iraq rather than Yemen) that can only complicate an already complicated regional security situation.
Speaking of which, the US military is reportedly considering the use of as many as three Saudi bases (one port and two airbases) along the Red Sea. These facilities would serve to project US power in the Red Sea region and as logistical hubs in case of a conflict in the Persian Gulf. They’ll also serve to expand the US footprint in the Middle East, which is always a great idea, and nothing bad has ever come of basing US soldiers in Saudi Arabia. So it’s really a win-win.
IRAN
1,385,706 confirmed cases (+6420)
57,560 reported fatalities (+79)
A few days ago I noted that this brief window in which the Biden administration could restore diplomatic contact with Iran could be lost if both Washington and Tehran insist that the other side has to take the first step. Well that dance is now playing out by proxy, with the French government saying on Tuesday that Iran must return to compliance with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action as a precursor to the US doing likewise. Also on Tuesday, and not coincidentally, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov took the opposite position, arguing that the US has to return to compliance before Iran. The US violated its end of the deal first and so it stands to reason that the US should make the first move to restore it, but of course the US government doesn’t want to be seen conceding anything to Iran. On top of that, the Israeli military is threatening to attack Iran if the US rejoins the agreement at all. Since the US government is incapable of divesting itself of Israel under any circumstance this would draw Washington into the ensuing (probably) war.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
54,854 confirmed cases (+104)
2389 reported fatalities (+0)
At World Politics Review, analyst Andrew Watkins highlights the constraints facing the Biden administration when it comes to the Afghan War:
The pessimism felt by many Afghans has given way to alarm that the Taliban’s return to power—by negotiations or otherwise—could usher in a wave of social restrictions and suppression akin to the group’s rule in the 1990s. Taliban messaging has publicly celebrated the countdown to the foreign troops’ withdrawal, hailing the U.S.-Taliban agreement as confirmation of their movement’s victory over the United States. Some senior Afghan officials, scrambling to curb a deteriorating security environment, have proposed draconian measures. One recent call for the execution of Taliban prisoners seemed to embody sentiments of hostility and desperation shared by government supporters. These sentiments are intertwined with expressions of abandonment. Afghans have voiced shock, confusion and despair that the social and political order erected mainly by the U.S. and its allies might be dismantled in a process that has thus far lent the Taliban legitimacy on the international stage.
This corrosive atmosphere hangs over the peace process Biden has inherited—and over the first big decision on Afghanistan his team will need to make. The Taliban have clearly and publicly insisted that they expect the U.S. to carry out the withdrawal as specified in the agreement: The group has promised to resume attacks against foreign forces if they remain even a day past April 30. Many critics of the U.S.-led process, and even some of its advocates, have suggested that ideally Biden would keep American forces based in the country until peace talks reach a comprehensive settlement to end the war, a change in approach that would provide much-needed leverage to the beleaguered Afghan government. But most peace processes stretch on for years, a timeline for continued foreign military presence that the Taliban would in all likelihood strongly reject.
INDIA
10,690,279 confirmed cases (+12,569)
153,751 reported fatalities (+127)
Thousands of farmers marked India’s Republic Day, the anniversary of the adoption of the Indian constitution in 1950, by carrying their ongoing protest against Narendra Modi’s government into Delhi’s historic Red Fort:
The farmers are still demanding a full repeal of measures the Indian parliament passed last fall that allow the creation of private agricultural markets. They argue that Modi’s government is trying to do away with farm subsidies (specifically minimum prices for agricultural products) and that the private markets would especially hurt smaller farming operations.
AFRICA
MALI
8006 confirmed cases (+11)
327 reported fatalities (+3)
The Malian military says it’s killed “100 terrorists” so far this month in central Mali, the result of a joint operation with French soldiers involved in the now almost seven year long Operation Barkhane. That’s a weirdly round number and I suspect it’s an estimate though that’s unclear from the reporting.
NIGERIA
124,299 confirmed cases (+1303)
1522 reported fatalities (+15)
Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari on Tuesday sacked the chief of Nigeria’s defense forces as well as the commanders of its army, navy, and air force. Sooooo, I guess the war against Boko Haram and company is going pretty well then? Seems like it must be going pretty well. In all seriousness Buhari didn’t offer an explanation but the military’s failures to stop jihadist violence in northeastern Nigeria and banditry in northwestern Nigera were presumably major factors in his thinking.
ETHIOPIA
134,569 confirmed cases (+437)
2075 reported fatalities (+4)
The Ethiopian government on Tuesday said it will not engage in any discussions with Sudanese officials about the disputed al-Fashaga border region until the Sudanese military stops occupying it. Fashaga’s border has never been well delineated. It seemingly lies within Sudan’s recognized international boundaries but it’s cut off from the rest of Sudan by rivers while being contiguous with Ethiopia. Because of that it’s been cultivated by Ethiopian farmers. Ethiopia seized control of the area back in the 1990s, but the two countries looked like they were heading toward some kind of mutual accommodation until the Tigray war, at which point the Sudanese military took advantage of the situation and claimed control over the region. Fashaga is part of a disturbingly large group of regional problems that also includes the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam negotiations and the continued fallout from the Tigray conflict.
UGANDA
39,261 confirmed cases (+73)
318 reported fatalities (+0)
Following Monday’s ruling by the Ugandan High Court, authorities lifted their siege on opposition Bobi Wine’s residence on Tuesday, though we’ll see if that’s really the end of it. Wine is still contesting President Yoweri Museveni’s reelection earlier this month but has been hinting that he might drop his plan to challenge the result in court because of the fear that, if he were to lose, it would legitimize the election.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
3,756,931 confirmed cases (+18,241)
70,482 reported fatalities (+564)
The US and Russian governments on Tuesday agreed in principle to extend New START for five years, the maximum extension allowed under the 2011 treaty’s terms. New START, the only extant treaty governing the size of the US and Russian nuclear arsenals, was to have expired next month, and this is welcome news after the Trump administration did everything it could to prevent the extension from happening. I say they “agreed in principle” because there are apparently still some details to work out and the final extension has to be put to a vote in the Russian parliament (there’s no such requirement on the US side).
Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin spoke by phone on Tuesday to exchange pleasantries and firm up the New START agreement. Biden also reportedly pressed Putin on…well, on a whole bunch of things, from Ukraine to Russian cyber activity to human rights to the Alexei Navalny arrest to the Nord Stream II gas pipeline and beyond. Hey, I said it was a whole bunch of things. It probably wasn’t a very fun chat.
ITALY
2,485,956 confirmed cases (+10,593)
86,422 reported fatalities (+541)
As expected, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte resigned on Tuesday in an attempt to form a new coalition that gives him back the Senate majority his government lost earlier this month. Any sense that Conte had a plan to regain that majority took a bit of a hit, however, when he decided to make a plea, via Facebook, for independent or wavering opposition senators to join his coalition. If that’s Conte’s big idea then Italy may well be headed for either a new prime minister or (more likely) a snap election.
NETHERLANDS
956,867 confirmed cases (+3917)
13,665 reported fatalities (+86)
The Netherlands experienced another night of sometimes-violent anti-lockdown protests, as The Guardian reports:
AMERICAS
PERU
1,107,239 confirmed cases (+4444)
40,107 reported fatalities (+220)
The Peruvian military on Tuesday deployed armored vehicles to bolster security along the country’s northern border. Migrants, most of them coming from Venezuela by way of Colombia and Ecuador, have been crossing into Peru despite border closures imposed due to the pandemic. The International Organization for Migration estimates that some 860,000 Venezuelan migrants are currently in Peru and many others may have transited Peru while continuing on to the south.
UNITED STATES
26,011,222 confirmed cases (+148,265)
435,452 reported fatalities (+4045)
The Biden administration added another foreign policy principal on Tuesday when the US Senate confirmed Antony Blinken as Secretary of State. We’ve talked about Blinken’s record before and I wouldn’t exactly call it encouraging, but he’ll benefit from comparison with his predecessor, Mike Pompeo.
And speaking of which, it looks like one of Blinken’s first orders of business looks like it will be reviewing Pompeo’s decision to sanction officials with the International Criminal Court over the ICC’s investigation into potential war crimes in Afghanistan. I would expect the Biden administration, which views the ICC as part of the sanctified Liberal International Order even if it doesn’t believe the US should be subject to its rulings, to rescind those sanctions.
Finally, the Quincy Institute’s Eli Clifton investigates the dark money funding “expert” congressional testimony:
When expert witnesses appear before congressional committees, they must disclose certain details about their funding, including federal grants or contracts or money they’ve received from foreign governments. That applies to the expert and the institution they’re representing. These Truth in Testimony rules are intended to ensure that committee members and the general public are given a full picture of the financial interests behind witness testimonies. It is a federal crime to withhold information from the committees.
Earlier this month, the House of Representatives Committee on Rules strengthened the Truth in Testimony rule requiring witnesses offering testimony to disclose whether they are the fiduciary of any entity with a financial interest in the subject matter of the hearing, a level of disclosure of potential financial conflicts of interests that was not previously required. Witnesses will also need to disclose if entities they represent received grants or contracts from foreign sources. The new changes will offer greater accountability and insight into the financial interests behind expert witnesses at congressional hearings.
That doesn’t necessarily mean that transparency will win the day. Take, for example, the House Foreign Affairs Committee. An ideologically narrow group of think tanks, many of which refuse to reveal their funding sources, have dominated the witness table, raising uncertainty about how much transparency the new rules will bring about.
The problem, as Clifton writes, is that these disclosure rules effectively rely on the witnesses themselves to decide if and when they have a conflict of interest. That gives think tanks wide latitude to obfuscate potential conflicts that they wouldn’t have if they were forced to make their full donor information public.