World roundup: January 25 2024
Stories from Myanmar, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, and elsewhere
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TODAY IN HISTORY
January 25, 750: The Battle of the Zab
January 25, 1971: A Ugandan military coup led by General Idi Amin overthrows the socialist regime of President Milton Obote. Amin would rule Uganda as a brutally authoritarian dictator until he was ousted during the Uganda-Tanzania War of 1979.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
Negotiations on a new ceasefire/prisoner exchange deal have hit another rocky patch, though in this case the issue isn’t really between the Israeli government and Hamas. In an apparently leaked recording that went public this week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is heard casting aspersions on the government of Qatar, which has been the prime mediator in these talks. The recording has Netanyahu telling family members of the remaining Israeli hostages that he has “no illusions about” the Qataris, who are “problematic” in his view. These comments are in line with some less explicit public statements that Netanyahu has made recently and with reporting that alleges that he and other Israeli leaders have been pushing the Egyptian government to take a more active mediating role to balance the Qataris. The Egyptians haven’t done so, possibly because Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is so angry at Netanyahu that he’s refusing to speak with the Israeli leader.
Qatar is home to several senior Hamas figures including the group’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh. This has led to accusations, not just from within Israel, that it’s sponsoring Hamas, though as with the Afghan Taliban foreign office that Qatar hosts this arrangement has often provided a useful means of communicating with Hamas leaders given that interacting with them is mostly proscribed by Western governments. Qatar has also sent millions of dollars in aid to Gaza since 2018, ostensibly to pay public sector salaries and fund social programs. Again this has sparked criticism of the Qataris, though they made these payments with the Israeli government’s blessing under a Trump-Netanyahu policy of throwing money at Palestinians to see if that made them stop complaining about pesky things like “freedom” and “self-determination.” Clearly it didn’t work, but that was the plan. And not to put too fine a point on it, but Qatar’s “problematic” relationship with Hamas had much to do with securing that November ceasefire that saw more than 100 hostages released.
None of this is to suggest that the Qataris are the perfect mediator here or that they’re above reproach. Arguments that they have an incentive to protect Hamas and preserve its role in postwar Palestinian politics have some merit. But if Netanyahu really wants a deal here—and maybe the point is that he doesn’t—then insulting the Qataris (publicly, on a hot mike, or otherwise) is a bad idea. They’ve already threatened to withdraw from the talks, which would be a huge setback, and have accused Netanyahu of “obstructing and undermining the mediation process.”
Despite all of this there’s still reason to think the deal is in play. The Biden administration is continuing to pursue it and The Washington Post reports that it is sending its actual secretary of state, CIA Director Bill Burns, to Europe for meetings intended to move the process forward. Al-Monitor’s Rina Bassist reported Thursday evening that the Israeli war cabinet was meeting to discuss the terms of an agreement for a 35 day ceasefire with Hamas and company releasing all of the remaining Israeli hostages. But she also said that the two sides still haven’t agreed on a list of Palestinian prisoners to be released and they’re still at loggerheads over Hamas’s demand that the agreement include a path toward the full cessation of hostilities.
In Gaza, meanwhile, aid agencies are continuing to sound the alarm over the risk of malnutrition. This is a story that keeps coming back around and the reason is that it’s hard to know in real time just how bad things are. Some of the worst effects on kids, for example, might not be fully apparent for months or even longer in terms of impacts on their development. At some point large numbers of people are going to start dying of outright starvation, but under the circumstances even that may be difficult to track without a functioning medical system. The most acute need appears to be in northern Gaza, where some 200,000 people are still stranded and where aid shipments are few and far between. Gaza’s health ministry reported on Thursday that Israeli shelling killed at least 20 people in that area while they were waiting for one of those shipments.
To the south, families of the remaining hostages are blockading the Kerem Shalom checkpoint, preventing aid trucks from entering the territory in an effort to pressure Hamas into releasing its prisoners. They claim that most of the aid goes to Hamas anyway, with very little left over for Palestinian civilians. This is a common view inside Israel and there’s no way to disprove it, I guess, but there’s also no way to prove it. Either way these people are denying some amount of food to a starving populace—one that includes the hostages they’re so desperate to free.
IRAQ
A rocket attack sparked a fire at an oil facility in northern Iraq’s Sulaimaniyah province late Thursday. It doesn’t appear to be serious but the story is still developing as far as I can tell. There’s no indication as to culprit.
UPDATE: Apparently this turned out to be a drone strike on a gas field and it has caused significant power outages across Iraqi Kurdistan. There’s still no indication as to responsibility.
YEMEN
The US and UK governments on Thursday blacklisted four senior figures in the Houthi movement for allegedly “assisting or sponsoring acts of terrorism.” As usual, the combination of asset freezes and legal bans on interacting with US entities is unlikely to have much real impact on them, but the new claim is apparently that the sanctions work by showing these people that the US government knows who they are, or something like that. I’m sure they’re suitably terrified.
SAUDI ARABIA
The Saudi government is planning to open a liquor store in Riyadh to meet the drinking needs of, according to Reuters, “non-Muslim diplomats.” This story says it is “unclear” if other non-Muslim foreigners will be allowed to shop there. But seeing as how this is part of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s effort to make the kingdom more inviting to international business in particular, one assumes the store will eventually be opened up to commercial visitors if it isn’t already. This is a somewhat controversial move for the Saudi government, though it is in keeping with MBS’s agenda, and it’s being coupled with new restrictions on diplomatic missions’ ability to import alcohol directly—they’ll instead have to buy from the state store.
IRAN
“US officials” have told The Wall Street Journal that they “secretly warned” the Iranian government about Islamic State’s plans to carry out a terrorist attack, prior to the group’s suicide bombing in Kerman earlier this month, which killed 94 people at last count. They claim there was enough specificity in the warning that Iranian authorities should have been able to prevent the attack. I suppose a cynical person might wonder how “US officials” became privy to IS’s plans, but…I’m sorry, I lost my train of thought. The bombing was claimed specifically by Islamic State’s Khorasan Group, which operates primarily out of Afghanistan and seems to be the organization’s most robust regional affiliate at this point. Iranian officials haven’t commented on this claim yet and may prefer to ignore it—the Kerman bombing targeted a high profile event honoring former Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani and the fact that Iranian security forces failed to prevent it could be something of an embarrassment.
Meanwhile, at Foreign Affairs the International Crisis Group’s Ali Vaez wonders if the conflict in Gaza and the Iranian government’s desire to lead a regional opposition to the Israel-US axis might push its leaders to finally decide to take the final steps to become an actual nuclear-armed state. The piece is heavily speculative so I wouldn’t give it too much credence but Vaez’s conclusion—that it’s long past time for the Biden administration to reengage with Iran diplomatically—is a good one regardless of any potential nuclear threat.
ASIA
PAKISTAN
The Pakistani government said on Thursday that it has “credible evidence” that “Indian agents” were responsible for murdering two men in Pakistan last year—one in Pakistani Kashmir in September and the other in the Punjab region the following month. The allegation echoes claims that the Indian government was behind the murder of a Sikh activist in Canada and a plot to murder another Sikh activist in the United States. Pakistani officials do not seem to have gone into much detail about the identities of the two victims so it’s difficult to know what the rationale might have been for killing them. The Indian government has denied the claim.
Elsewhere, the Pakistani Taliban pledged on Thursday not to attack any political rallies between now and Pakistan’s February 8 election. The group says its targets are strictly Pakistani security forces. This seems fine, except insofar as the main Pakistani Taliban doesn’t necessarily control the group’s many factions and splinter groups and so any one of them might take it upon itself to do a bit of political violence regardless of what the home office might have promised.
MYANMAR
The rebel Arakan Army says its fighters have seized control of the Myanmar port town of Pauktaw, after a two month battle with the military. Their claim hasn’t been confirmed. It’s unclear how much of the town remains at this point, because the Myanmar military has apparently been pounding it with airstrikes since the AA first entered it in mid-November. Pauktaw is situated fairly close to the Rakhine state capital, Sittwe, which contains one of Myanmar’s largest deep water ports.
PHILIPPINES
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is scheduled to visit Vietnam next week, and among other items on his agenda he’s expected to sign a deal to boost cooperation between the Philippine and Vietnamese coast guards in the South China Sea. The two countries have some overlapping claims in that waterway, but whatever rivalry they have is dwarfed by the disputes each countries has with China. There’s some possibility that this agreement will draw some sort of negative reaction from Beijing, though I suppose time will tell.
CHINA
Biden administration National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is apparently taking the US case against the Houthis to the Chinese government. He’s heading to Thailand for a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, reportedly in order to convince Beijing to pressure Iran to stop supplying the Houthis with weapons. Interestingly, Reuters reported on Thursday that the Chinese government has already pressed Iranian officials to tell the Houthis to ease off in their threats to Red Sea commercial shipping. Essentially, the story goes, they’ve told Tehran that if disruptions to Red Sea commerce affect China’s business interests it will pass those impacts on to Iran. China is Iran’s largest trading partner and that could give it considerable leverage over Iranian policy, though Chinese influence over Iran is by no means absolute and neither is Iranian influence over the Houthis.
AFRICA
MALI
Mali’s ruling junta on Thursday announced that it is officially scrapping a 2015 peace deal with separatist rebels in northern Mali. The junta and those rebels, collectively known as the “Coordination of Azawad Movements,” already came to blows last year over the status of former United Nations peacekeeping outposts in the Kidal region and officials cited that violence as well as unspecified “hostile acts” by Algeria, which mediated the agreement, as grounds for its decision. The CMA declared last year that it was once again at war with the Malian government so this step is not terribly surprising and it may not materially change much about this situation.
BURKINA FASO
Human Rights Watch on Thursday accused Burkina Faso’s ruling junta of killing some 60 civilians last year in three drone strikes, including one that apparently took place just over the border in Mali. Burkinabè authorities insist the attacks only killed “militants” but according to HRW the attacks targeted two markets and a funeral and while there may have been jihadists in the vicinity the majority of the victims were civilians. The Intercept’s Nick Turse has more on this story and on the US government’s involvement with the pre-junta Burkinabè military. On the plus side, it seems Russian soldiers have started deploying to Burkina Faso as part of the burgeoning bilateral relationship. If there’s anything Russian soldiers are known for it’s their heavy emphasis on minimizing civilian casualties in African nations.
NIGERIA
Tuesday’s outburst of inter-communal violence in Nigeria’s Plateau state was apparently part of a bigger outburst that began the previous day and left not eight people dead, as originally reported, but at least 50 people across several villages. There’s been no claim of responsibility but according to the AP locals are blaming Fulani herders for the attacks.
ETHIOPIA
Addis Standard is reporting that suspected Oromo Liberation Army rebels killed at least 12 members of a local militia on Tuesday in an attack in the Sarmale district of Ethiopia’s Oromia region. Two more militia members were wounded.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
Some 20 civilians were killed in a town in the eastern DRC’s North Kivu province on Thursday in an attack for which the Congolese military and the M23 rebel group are blaming one another. Both seem to agree that the military advanced on the town and M23 fighters withdrew, but the military claims that those retreating fighters launched mortars against the town to cover their retreat, while the rebels say the military bombarded the town with drones and artillery to facilitate its assault. Neither account can be verified or disproven.
EUROPE
EUROPEAN UNION
Jacobin’s Marc Botenga reports that European Union leaders are bringing austerity back in a major way:
Between March 2020 and June 2021, the European Commission approved over €3 trillion in state aid measures to face the demands of the health crisis and support affected companies. In addition, a €750 billion European economic recovery package named NextGenerationEU was put in place to support member states’ recovery. Common European bonds were said to guarantee triple A–rated debt security for the borrowing.
The respite was short-lived. In December 2023, the meeting of European ministers of finance agreed to reintroduce slightly revised budgetary rules. The European Commission, the EU’s unelected executive, had been pushing for it for years. Last week, the European Parliament, which wields more limited competences, also gave its consent to a reform and reinstatement of budgetary rules. This was done through an alliance not just made up of right-wing and liberal parties, but also enjoying the active support of the Socialist and Democrats group, who claim to stand for building a “social Europe.”
The new rules would have disastrous consequences. The European Trade Union Confederation calculated that EU member states could be forced to collectively cut their budgets by more than €100 billion during the next year. Member states could request to extend the cuts over a seven-year period. This will however come in exchange for commitments to harsh “reforms” of pension systems, labor markets, and wage setting mechanisms. The flexibility will also depend on the goodwill of the European Commission. Or rather, on the bargaining power of the country concerned, meaning that smaller member states are less likely to benefit.
UKRAINE
The Ukrainian government says it is investigating Wednesday’s incident in which its military apparently shot down a Russian military transport plane full of Ukrainian POWs. Ukrainian officials are questioning everything about the Russian story, including whether or not the POWs really were on the plane and whether or not Ukrainian missiles were responsible for bringing it down. They’re blaming the Russians regardless, arguing that it was Moscow’s responsibility so ensure the safety of those prisoners ahead of Wednesday’s scheduled exchange. Russian officials are claiming that they informed their Ukrainian counterparts about the flight ahead of time—Ukrainian officials are denying it.
Elsewhere, a number of Ukrainian state institutions reported being hit by cyberattacks on Thursday. It’s unclear how serious the attacks were but suspicion is naturally falling on Russian hackers.
SWEDEN
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan officially signed off on Sweden’s NATO accession on Thursday. This was a foregone conclusion—if Erdoğan wasn’t prepared to move forward he wouldn’t have had his parliament vote on the matter on Tuesday. It officially leaves Hungary as the last obstacle in Sweden’s way. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said on Thursday that he’s accepted Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán’s invitation to go to Budapest to discuss the issue, and it would be mildly surprising if Orbán were to continue holding out after that visit.
AMERICAS
ECUADOR
Ecuadorean police on Thursday destroyed over 20 metric tons of cocaine that they had seized over the weekend as part of the country’s newly energized war against criminal gangs. At New Left Review, former Ecuadorean Foreign Minister Guillaume Long looks at how the country went from relative success story to a “cliche of a narco-state”:
In recent years, the surging violence in Ecuador has made international headlines. Initially, coverage centred on frequent prison riots and massacres, which have claimed four hundred lives since 2021. Then, as the turmoil spread beyond the penitentiary system, the focus shifted to gang shootings and executions. Last April, video footage of an attack in the coastal city of Esmeraldas, showing a speed boat full of armed men shooting people on the docks, went viral. The following summer, the presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated and his alleged hitmen were murdered in custody. Now the country is reeling from a 24-hour rampage by drug gangs that culminated in a live, on-air hostage-taking on a TV news set. The incident prompted the newly inaugurated president Daniel Noboa to announce that the country was facing an ‘internal armed conflict’: constitutional parlance for a declaration of war, which essentially allows the military to take over from the police. Ecuador wasn’t always this cliche of a narco-state. It was once hailed as an ‘island of peace’, a security success story. What explains its spiral into chaos?
UNITED STATES
Finally, Juan Cole questions the morality of the Biden administration’s current posture in the Middle East:
The Biden administration had been persuaded to seek peace between the Houthis and their Gulf foes. It lifted the terrorist designation of the Houthis because international aid groups warned that it prevented them from dealing with the de facto government of Yemen in providing food and other aid. Some 16 million Yemenis in the north have faced hunger and malnutrition because of the war on them by Saudi Arabia and the UAE since 2015 — a war to which the US contributed logistics and strategic advice.
But now the US State Department has restored the terrorist designation to the Houthis.
So think about the ironies. Biden had not wanted to designate the Helpers of God as terrorists so as to avoid starving ordinary civilian Yemenis living under their rule.
But then Israel launched what some have called a genocide against the noncombatant civilian population of Gaza, which UN agencies are arguing is starving hundreds of thousands of Palestinians.
The Houthis launched missile attacks on shipping to protest the starvation of the Palestinians.
Biden has not only done zero, zilch, nada to address the danger of famine in Gaza, but now in order to uphold the Israeli denial of basic nutrition to the Palestinians he has gone to war with Yemen and is setting things up so that there is a danger of thousands of Yemenis dying of hunger.
Boo Biden!