World roundup: January 21 2021

Stories from Iraq, Mozambique, Russia, and more

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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY

January 20, 1981: The Iranian government celebrates Ronald Reagan’s inauguration by ending the 444 day Iran Hostage Crisis with the release of 52 US hostages. The release was the result of months of negotiations between the Iranians and the Carter administration, which produced the Algiers Accords that among other things established an international tribunal to adjudicate claims by US citizens against the new Iranian government and by Iranian citizens against the US. The timing of the release has fed “October Surprise” conspiracy theories about secret talks between the Iranians and the Reagan campaign, but may have simply been a final “f you” to Carter, who was mostly reviled in Iran due to his perceived support for the ousted Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi.

The hostages after their arrival at the US Air Force base at Weisbaden on January 20 (Defense Department photo via Wikimedia Commons)

January 21, 763: The Battle of Bakhamra

January 21, 1793: Having been found guilty of treason by the National Convention, French King Louis XVI is executed by guillotine. His death marked what must have seemed like the definitive end of the French monarchy, though Napoleon and then the restored Bourbons had something to say about that. It also shocked even some supporters of the French Revolution, and that shock may have contributed to the support for the aforementioned Bourbon Restoration when all was said and done.

January 21, 1968: The North Vietnamese siege of the Khe Sanh Combat Base begins. A US relief army was able to break the siege in April, but American leaders decided that the cost of continuing to defend the facility wasn’t worth it so they had it dismantled and withdrew US forces from the area in July. So ultimately both sides claimed victory. The Tet Offensive began a few days after the Khe Sanh siege and it remains an unanswered question whether the offensive was supposed to divert attention from the siege or the siege was supposed to divert attention from the offensive. The correct answer may be neither, that the North Vietnamese undertook both operations with the intention of focusing on whichever one achieved the most initial success.

INTERNATIONAL

Worldometer’s coronavirus figures for January 21:

• 98,060,099 confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide (25,512,830 active, +664,932 since yesterday)

• 2,098,472 reported fatalities (+16,578 since yesterday)

MIDDLE EAST

IRAQ

• 611,407 confirmed coronavirus cases (+809)

• 12,977 reported fatalities (+9)

Two suicide bombers killed at least 32 people and wounded at least 110 more in an attack on a market in Baghdad’s Tayaran Square on Thursday. It’s unclear from the reporting whether the two bombers struck simultaneously or if this was a “double tap” strike meant to draw in first responders. Attacks in the Iraqi capital have become relatively infrequent since the 2017 offensive that dislodged the Islamic State from much of the country, so this one stands out for that reason. Unsurprisingly, IS later claimed responsibility.

QATAR

• 148,258 confirmed cases (+258)

• 248 reported fatalities (+0)

Citing Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, the kingdom’s al-Arabiya TV station reported on Thursday that the Saudi embassy in Doha will reopen “in days.” Egypt and Qatar have already reestablished full diplomatic relations, so the Saudis would be the second to take that step from among the quartet that began boycotting Qatar in 2017. The big Gulf reconciliation is not going completely smoothly, however—Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid al-Zayani complained via Twitter on Thursday that the Qataris have not taken “any initiative to solve pending problems with Bahrain.” It’s unclear what “problems” he’s talking about and even less clear why this should matter to the Qataris, given that they’re restoring relations with the two largest members of the quartet and Bahrain is, well, Bahrain.

ASIA

GEORGIA

• 251,071 confirmed cases (+1137)

• 2998 reported fatalities (+11)

The European Court of Human Rights ruled on Thursday that the Russian military committed multiple human rights violations during the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, including the ethnic cleansing of the separatist South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions. This probably should not come as a surprise and needless to say it’s a bit late to do anything about it, but then the ECHR wouldn’t really have the power to do anything anyway. The verdict, plus the ECHR’s decision last week to hear a case regarding alleged Russian human rights abuses in Ukraine, could be the thing that finally prompts Moscow to withdraw from the court, after years of threats.

TURKMENISTAN

• No acknowledged cases

The Turkmen and Azerbaijani governments have reportedly reached an agreement in principle on the joint development of a shared oil and natural gas field in the Caspian Sea, which they’ve decided to name “Dostluk” or “Friendship.” Sounds nice! The field itself is less significant than the potential for this new accord to unlock progress on the Trans-Caspian pipeline, which is supposed to run under the Caspian and bring Turkmen natural gas to Azerbaijan and, from there, potentially on to Europe. Regional disputes over the Caspian and its energy deposits have stifled the construction of the pipeline, the idea for which has been kicking around since the 1990s.

AFGHANISTAN

• 54,483 confirmed cases (+80)

• 2370 reported fatalities (+7)

Among many other Trump administration policies it plans to reverse, the Biden administration will begin processing visa applications for Afghan nationals who have aided the US military (as interpreters, for example) and whose lives are now at risk because of it. The Trump administration basically froze this program, one of the pettier decisions by an extraordinarily petty administration, leaving some 19,000 applications stuck in some stage of processing.

MONGOLIA

• 1584 confirmed cases (+16)

• 2 reported fatalities (+0)

Mongolian Prime Minister Khurelsukh Ukhnaa submitted his resignation to parliament on Thursday, a day after major protests in Ulaanbaatar over a video that allegedly showed health officials mistreating a COVID-19 patient and her child. The video seems to have been a final straw for Mongolians angry over the country’s economic struggles and frustrated by the pandemic and its effects.

TAIWAN

• 873 confirmed cases (+3)

• 7 reported fatalities (+0)

Joe Biden stressed his support for Taiwan by inviting the head of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States, Hsiao Bi-khim, to his inauguration on Wednesday. Hsiao is Taiwan’s de facto ambassador to the US, and this marked the first time a Taiwanese diplomat attended a US presidential inauguration since the Carter administration switched US recognition from Taipei to Beijing under the “One China Policy.” Interestingly, Beijing’s reaction to the invitation has been pretty muted, unlike its outrage in 2016 after then President-elect Donald Trump received a phone call from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. The Chinese government is undoubtedly hoping for better relations with Biden than it had with Trump, so it may be treading lightly at the moment.

CHINA

• 88,701 confirmed cases (+144) on the mainland, 9868 confirmed cases (+70) in Hong Kong

• 4635 reported fatalities (+0) on the mainland, 167 reported fatalities (+1) in Hong Kong

In other US-China news, Biden’s National Security Council on Wednesday characterized Beijing’s decision to blacklist multiple outgoing Trump officials as “unproductive and cynical.” This isn’t surprising but it is revealing. The Biden administration doesn’t really care if Mike Pompeo is on some country’s blacklist, it cares about the precedent of any US official, or ex-official, winding up on any country’s blacklist. Which is extremely rich, given that the US blacklists officials from other countries routinely. As ever, the one thing that unites all corners of The Blob is an abiding belief in total American impunity. Sanctions are for Other People, not us.

AFRICA

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

• 4974 confirmed cases (+0)

• 63 reported fatalities (+0)

The Central African government declared a 15 day state of emergency on Thursday in response to the ongoing rebel siege of Bangui. The rebels, who control much of the CAR’s countryside, have been choking off the main highways into the capital since the middle of last month, preventing food and other basic necessities from reaching the city. Initially they were trying to prevent the December 27 general election and now in opposition to President Faustin-Archange Touadéra’s reelection. The price of essentials in Bangui is skyrocketing due to rampant shortages.

ETHIOPIA

• 132,326 confirmed cases (+292)

• 2057 reported fatalities (+13)

A journalist with Tigrayan regional TV, Dawit Kebede, was shot and killed along with one other person late Tuesday in the regional capital, Mekelle. Dawit had previously been questioned by police for unknown reasons and there are unconfirmed reports that he was killed by security forces. Allegedly two other people in the same car as Dawit and the other victim were arrested after the shooting.

MOZAMBIQUE

• 30,225 confirmed cases (+829)

• 283 reported fatalities (+12)

The Islamist insurgency in northern Mozambique has triggered a rapidly escalating humanitarian crisis:

Fighting in the northern province of Cabo Delgado displaced more than 500,000 people last year and on Wednesday UN agencies said they were deeply worried about the current situation and called for the international community to do more to help.

A cholera outbreak has also been reported in the region with the arrival of the rainy season.

“The situation in Cabo Delgado is dire, it’s a humanitarian crisis, the international community cannot let the situation continue like this,” said Valentin Tapsoba, director of UNHCR in southern Africa.

He said 90% of those displaced had been taken in or housed by sympathetic local people but were living in cramped conditions, with several families often sharing small spaces, sleeping on floors and sharing a single toilet.

EUROPE

RUSSIA

• 3,655,839 confirmed cases (+21,887)

• 67,832 reported fatalities (+612)

Joe Biden has reportedly offered the Russian government a full five year extension of New START, which is otherwise due to expire next month. Russian officials have repeatedly said they were prepared to accept an unconditional renewal of the pact, the only remaining arms control treaty governing the US and Russian nuclear arsenals, so the ball, so to speak, is now in their court. New START went into effect in 2011 for an initial ten year period, with optional renewal for up to five years if both sides agree. It can be renewed every five years in perpetuity, theoretically, though the intent was that Russia and the US would eventually negotiate some kind of successor pact. Given where US-Russian relations are these days, the possibility of negotiating a new deal seems fairly far-fetched.

Speaking of that relationship, the Russian government is forcing an early confrontation with Biden over the fate of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Russian authorities have been threatening RFE/RL’s Russian outlet with fines and, beyond that, with criminal charges for its journalists. The Kremlin accuses RFE/RL of broadcasting US propaganda, a charge that’s become easier to make over the past four years as the Trump administration tore down whatever editorial firewall once existed between the US Agency for Global Media, RFE/RL’s parent organization, and the US government. Biden could try to protect the outlet, but it’s possible he’ll look at the long list of issues where the US and Russia are in conflict and decide to put his focus elsewhere.

ITALY

• 2,428,221 confirmed cases (+14,078)

• 84,202 reported fatalities (+521)

Although his coalition survived its confidence votes this week and he remains reasonably popular, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s hold on his job is still tenuous. His efforts to restore the Senate majority his government lost when the Italia Viva party quit the coalition earlier this month have mostly gone nowhere, which means he could soon find it impossible to pass legislation, in which case he would likely be forced to step down. And Italian President Sergio Mattarella is insisting that he rebuild his coalition with the support of a stable party or faction rather than appealing to an ad hoc collection of independent senators, making the task more difficult. Reuters speculates that the independent Conte could try to form his own party, which polling indicates would be popular, but it’s still unclear whether he could attract new legislative support that way. It seems more likely he’d simply cannibalize the support of his remaining coalition partners.

UNITED KINGDOM

• 3,543,646 confirmed cases (+37,892)

• 94,580 reported fatalities (+1290)

The UK government is refusing to give European Union ambassador João Vale de Almeida and his staff full diplomatic status, arguing that as an “international body” the EU’s diplomats cannot be offered the same treatment as a national delegation. British officials insist this isn’t meant to be a slight, but since EU diplomats are accorded full diplomatic status in every other country in which they have a presence, it’s hard not to view it as a slight. Donald Trump, who openly loathed the EU, downgraded its diplomatic status briefly during his presidency but later reversed that decision. What makes this particularly rich is that the UK never objected to EU diplomats holding full diplomatic status when it was an EU member, and those diplomats were in part working on the UK’s dime.

While this is a fairly inconsequential issue in the big scheme of things, it doesn’t bode well for the future UK-EU relationship when it comes to, say, resolving trade disputes or attempting to cooperate on security or other issues.

AMERICAS

UNITED STATES

• 25,196,086 confirmed cases (+193,758)

• 420,285 reported fatalities (+4363)

Amid the slew of foreign policy-related executive orders Joe Biden issued on his first day in office, I neglected to mention the one in which he reversed Donald Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the World Health Organization. Foreign Exchanges apologizes for the oversight.

Finally, The American Prospect’s Jonathan Guyer reports on the deeply troubling nexus developing between Big Tech and Big Defense Contractor:

Days after winning the November election, Joe Biden announced the names of those staffing his transition. Big Tech landed prominent spots. Among the hundreds of personnel on the agency review teams serving the president-elect, there was one from Uber, two from Amazon, and one from Google. And then there were two people from Rebellion Defense, a shadowy defense startup.

The announcement sent Washington insiders scrambling to look up the company. No major defense contractors appeared on the list. “It’s sure odd that a year-old startup like Rebellion winds up with two employees serving on a presidential transition team,” Ken Glueck, the executive vice president of the tech company Oracle, told me.

What is Rebellion Defense? With a Star Wars allusion as its name, this firm is not your typical contractor. Rebellion launched in the summer of 2019 to craft artificial-intelligence (AI) software for the defense industry. Trade publications gushed about how innovative it was. It quickly raised $63 million, with the conspicuous backing of its board member Eric Schmidt. Schmidt is best known as the former CEO of Google, but he’s also a billionaire investor and an influential consultant to key government bodies.

Schmidt, as it happens, chairs the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, which advises the US government on defense AI issues. And in that role he’s apparently been advising the government to purchase technology from companies in which, like Rebellion Defense, he has a substantial ownership stake. Now, to unsophisticated rubes this may look like a massive conflict of interest, but to savvy foreign policy insiders it’s…still a massive conflict of interest, but nobody in that world cares about such things.