World roundup: January 11 2024
Stories from Yemen, Burundi, Ukraine, and elsewhere
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TODAY IN HISTORY
January 11, 630 (or thereabouts): Muhammad and his followers conquer Mecca.
January 11, 1942: In battles at Kuala Lumpur and Tarakan, the Imperial Japanese military wins major victories over Britain and the Netherlands, respectively. Tarakan was the more significant victory as the Japanese military was able to seize control over a substantial oil drilling and refinery operation as well as a major regional airfield. While the victory at Kuala Lumpur helped expand Japan’s control over Southeast Asia, the city was not nearly as large or important as it is today, so this was perhaps not quite as significant a victory as it might seem.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The Intercept’s Ryan Grim recounts day one of the International Court of Justice’s Gaza hearing:
South Africa’s genocide charges against Israel were formally brought to The Hague today, with the post-apartheid nation facing off against Israel for two days of emergency hearings. South Africa’s immediate aim is to win a ruling later this month — perhaps as early as next week — ordering Israel to cease and desist its assault of Gaza.
Today’s hearing at The Hague was South Africa’s opportunity to lay out its case; tomorrow Israel will respond. The case they made (watch it here), which played live on TVs set up outside the building for crowds to watch, was straightforward: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken in biblical terms about wiping out the Palestinians and followed up by urging them to flee to safe zones, and then flattening those safe zones with 2,000 bombs. South Africa also played clips of Israeli soldiers echoing Netanyahu’s genocidal rhetoric, vowing to wipe out “the seed of Amalek.” “What more evidence could be required?” one South African lawyer asked. My colleague Jeremy Scahill has more of the blow-by-blow.
A preliminary ruling to cease the assault, if it’s made, would then raise the question of how it would be enforced and who would be willing to stand up to the United States to enforce it. It would also give new global legitimacy to the Yemeni blockade of shipping in the Red Sea destined for or originating from Israeli ports.
By nature and because of the way this newsletter is organized my focus tends to be on the tangible side of world events but I don’t want to lose sight of the symbolic weight of the South African case and the very real possibility that the ICJ will issue at least a preliminary injunction demanding a halt to the Israeli military’s (IDF) Gaza campaign. I don’t expect such a ruling, if that is what the court does, to actually stop the campaign—just as the court’s March 2022 order for Russia to stop its invasion of Ukraine had no actual effect. But it would still be a significant development and I think the Israeli government’s intense response to the South African filing indicates that its leaders understand how significant it would be.
Spencer Ackerman has read the South African filing and has a more thorough discussion of its contents and merits at his newsletter. That piece also includes comments from an international law expert who felt the South African case was quite strong and who seems pretty certain that the court issue a preliminary ceasefire order. Again there’s no reason to expect it would be obeyed, but at the very least if the court issues such an order and the Israeli government ignores it then whatever lingering shreds of credibility the Biden administration has when it talks about the “rules based order” will be gone.
Looking ahead, a full ruling on the genocide question could be months (at least) away and it’s impossible to handicap how the court will ultimately rule. As Grim points out, the deck is somewhat stacked against South Africa as several ICJ judges from countries that are inclined toward a pro-Israel position and/or may be reluctant to invoke the 1948 Genocide Convention in any context lest it set a precedent.
Elsewhere:
The Israeli response on Friday will unsurprisingly center on the violence of the October 7 attacks by Hamas and other militant groups on communities in southern Israel. The argument will presumably be that it was Hamas, not the Israeli government, that displayed genocidal intent and that the Israeli response, brutal as it has been, is unfortunate but necessary. “They started it,” more or less. In that light it may be worth noting that there are growing calls even within Israel for clarity as to the number of Israeli civilians who were killed on October 7 by so-called “friendly fire” (accidental or otherwise) from Israeli security forces. That clarity won’t change the overarching dynamic of that day but it could shed some light on the conduct of the attacks and the intent behind them.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made the final stop on his latest Middle East tour in Egypt on Thursday, where he met Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and tried to convince reporters that his trip, appearances aside, has been successful. Blinken is pleased with himself for getting a number of governments around the region to commit to planning Gaza’s postwar reconstruction. The one teeny problem with that is he couldn’t get the Israeli government to commit to postwar reconstruction or, really, even to the notion that there might someday be a “postwar” Gaza. Seems like that might be a problem but what do I know? Blinken also says he’s secured a pledge from Palestinian Authority leaders to undertake some unspecified “reform” that I guess in theory is supposed to address Israeli concerns about the PA resuming governance in Gaza. That doesn’t address the Israeli government’s biggest concern, however, which is that putting both Gaza and the West Bank under PA control, reform or no, would advance the cause of Palestinian statehood.
Aid agencies and now even a couple of US senators are putting blame on the Israeli government’s tedious inspection regime for limiting the amount of humanitarian aid that is passing through the Rafah and Kerem Shalom checkpoints into Gaza. When the Israeli government opened the latter checkpoint it set 200 truckloads of aid per day as the target but apparently the reality is nowhere near that figure. Israeli officials are blaming aid agencies in Gaza for being too slow to admit trucks, but much of that slowness is caused by the destruction of Gaza’s road infrastructure and that, go figure, is the Israeli military’s doing. Humanitarian aid alone cannot solve Gaza’s crisis but it could at least help forestall the worst of the famine that now appears to be underway.
There have been pieces this week from both Local Call and The Washington Post in which Palestinians taken prisoner in Gaza describe torture at the hands of their Israeli captors. The worst treatment appears to be taking place at “black sites” the Israeli military has set up for that purpose. The accounts include claims of prisoners dying in custody.
Chinese shipping firm COSCO announced earlier this week that it’s suspending shipping to Israel. Initially this looked like a response to tensions in the Red Sea but apparently it applies across the board. The rationale is unclear but one possibility is that the Chinese government is taking a stand on Gaza—though without openly saying so. China and Israel have a pretty robust commercial relationship but if this decision really was motivated by Gaza then presumably Beijing has decided that its interests are better served on the pro-Palestinian side of this particular ledger.
LEBANON
An Israeli airstrike killed two members of a civil defense unit affiliated with Hezbollah in the southern Lebanese village of Hanin on Thursday. Later in the day another civil defense group affiliated with the Amal Movement reported that one of its facilities was struck by a missile, but the projectile didn’t explode and there were apparently no casualties.
The Biden administration has dispatched adviser Amos Hochstein, who’s been serving informally as its Lebanon envoy, to the region in an attempt to talk its way out of a potential escalation in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. Hochstein seems to think there’s a path that involves Hezbollah redeploying its fighters north of the Litani River. This is at least arguably mandated by United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Lebanon War. It’s unlikely Hezbollah will go for that, though the group also seems very intent on avoiding a wider war.
YEMEN
Chances are pretty good that by the time you read this the US and UK militaries will have carried out some sort of attack on Houthi-linked targets in northern Yemen. This will of course be in response to the Yemeni rebels’ repeated attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. I assume the targets will be drone and missile launch sites and/or control centers. Clearly Tuesday’s large Houthi barrage of drone and missile fire was the last straw from the US perspective. Houthi officials have threatened even larger attacks in response to any US strike so it seems unlikely that whatever the Biden administration is planning to do is going to have a strong deterrent effect. The Yemeni rebels fired at least one missile into the Gulf of Aden on Thursday to no apparent effect. It probably goes without saying that there’s no legal justification under which the US can conduct this attack, but we should all understand by now that legality is no obstacle in these situations.
UPDATE: Apparently the strikes were even more imminent than I thought because they have already taken place. At least a dozen targets were reportedly involved, most or all of the launch/control variety I described above. There’s no word on casualties or damage and not much more to say at this point but I may have more in tomorrow’s roundup and I assume the Houthis will respond at some point.
IRAN
Iranian naval forces reportedly seized the oil tanker St. Nikolas in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday. The ship was carrying Iraqi oil to Turkey but I don’t think it’s a coincidence that this is the same tanker (renamed) that the US military impounded last April for carrying Iranian oil in alleged violation of US sanctions.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
A grenade attack in Kabul’s Dasht-e-Barchi neighborhood killed at least two people and wounded another 12 on Thursday. It’s reasonable to assume this was another Islamic State attack, which would make it the second IS attack in that predominantly Shiʿa neighborhood since Saturday and the third IS attack in the Afghan capital in that time.
TAIWAN
Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu lashed out on Thursday at what he called the Chinese government’s “repeated interference” in Taiwan’s upcoming general election, which will take place on Saturday. Chinese officials have been warning that the election of presidential front runner (and current vice president) Lai Ching-te could threaten conflict with Beijing, warnings that have been picked up my members of the Taiwanese opposition. Beyond that obvious interference there are allegations that Beijing is manipulating Taiwanese social media and opposition politicians as well as using economic levers and military threats to try to steer voters toward parties that are more favorable to mainland Chinese interests. Lai is the candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which favors Taiwanese independence.
OCEANIA
PAPUA NEW GUINEA
The Papua New Guinean government declared a state of emergency on Thursday after at least 16 people were killed amid rioting the previous day in the cities of Port Moresby and Lae. The riots apparently started during protests over a public sector pay cut that has raised anger among police in particular. PNG Prime Minister James Marape told reporters on Thursday that he’s suspended the chief of the national police as well as officials in the economy and treasury ministries pending an investigation into the cause of the rioting. Police have apparently returned to work.
AFRICA
SUDAN
Shelling in a residential section of Khartoum reportedly killed at least ten civilians on Thursday. There’s no indication as to responsibility and while the Rapid Support Forces controls most of the city the Sudanese military is still contesting parts of it so the shelling could have been from either side. At least 12,000 people have been killed in the military-RSF conflict to date—that figure is probably well below the actual total due to the difficulty in getting accurate information out of more remote parts of the country like Darfur—and more than 7 million have been displaced.
SOMALIA
The Somali military says it is searching for the UN personnel who were abducted by al-Shabab fighters on Wednesday when their helicopter had to make an emergency landing in Galmudug state. It’s still unclear how many people were taken captive but the UN believes that of the nine people aboard the helicopter, six were abducted and two are still missing. The militants apparently killed one person at the crash site.
BURUNDI
The Burundian government closed its border and suspended diplomatic relations with Rwanda on Thursday over the Rwandan government’s alleged support for the RED-Tabara rebel group. Évariste Ndayishimiye has accused Rwanda of backing the rebels and the United Nations has lent credence to that allegation, though Rwandan officials deny it. Burundian Internal Affairs Minister Martin Niteretse said on Thursday that efforts are underway to deport Rwandan nationals from Burundi in addition to the border closure.
EUROPE
UKRAINE
At Responsible Statecraft, George Beebe and Anatol Lieven argue that it’s time for Ukraine and its Western backers to consider a change of course:
Russian progress in the Ukraine war is pushing the United States toward a painful choice.
If we want a prosperous Ukraine with a viable path toward liberal governance and European Union membership, we will have to concede that it cannot be a NATO or U.S. ally, and that this neutral Ukraine must have verifiable limits on the types and quantities of weapons it may hold. If we refuse to agree to those terms, Russia will quite probably turn Ukraine into a dysfunctional wreck incapable of rebuilding itself, allying with the West, or constituting a military threat to Russia.
Russian progress is not yet evident on the map, where the battle lines have not moved appreciably over the past year. Ukraine’s counteroffensive failed to break through Russian defenses, and Russia has not pushed Ukrainian forces significantly westward. An observer comparing territorial holdings in January 2023 with January 2024 might reasonably conclude that the war has become a stalemate.
But this picture is misleading.
In other news:
The Russian military has reportedly shifted its air campaign somewhat to make greater use of cheaper, “dumber” munitions like glide bombs and ballistic missiles that are harder to intercept than cruise missiles and cheaper to manufacture than higher-end armaments. Using such weapons the Russians are better able to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense systems, particularly as those systems are running out of ammunition. Seems like another good reason to consider a change of approach.
The Bulgarian, Romanian, and Turkish governments have agreed to a joint effort to clear mines from the Black Sea. The mines greatly hamper commercial traffic in the region and they also pose a serious threat to maritime infrastructure belonging to countries in the region. It’s unclear how this initiative is going to go over with the Russian government, but presumably the Ukrainian government would welcome anything that makes commercial shipping safer.
Here’s a real shocker: the US Defense Department has apparently lost track of a cool $1 billion in military hardware it sent to Ukraine, according to the Pentagon’s inspector-general. That’s out of around $1.7 billion in equipment that’s subject to tracking due to concerns about potential arms trafficking—which doesn’t apply to big ticket items like tanks, for example. The Pentagon says it’s hoping to improve on this front in the coming year, so I guess that’s something.
SERBIA
At New Left Review, Lily Lynch recounts last month’s elections in Serbia:
Following Serbia’s elections on 17 December, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe held a press conference that felt like a funeral. A row of solemn bureaucrats read out a list of irregularities recorded during the contest, and they were legion. In recent years, Serbian national ballots have been somewhat Gogolian, with votes cast by long-deceased voters and other instances of fraud. But this time the scale was different. The OSCE concluded that the election had been carried out under a climate of intimidation, amid violence, vote-buying, dubious registers, ballot stuffing, pressure on public sector employees and ‘multiple allegations’ of mass bussing from neighboring Bosnia to vote for the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) of President Aleksandar Vučić.
Even taking into account the SNS’s underhanded tactics, the party still won a convincing victory at national level, netting about 47% of the vote, while the liberal opposition bloc Serbia Against Violence (SPN) came in distant second with just under 24%. SNS looks set to have an absolute majority in the 250-seat parliament: 147 seats to SPN’s 63. While the opposition maintains that the result would have been different in a media landscape less dominated by the government, Vučić still exceeded expectations. In most cases, it seemed that the rigging supplemented his mandate rather than dramatically altered the final outcome. One important exception, however, was Belgrade’s City Assembly elections, where irregularities were recorded at a full 14% of all polling stations. SPN are confident that they were the true victors in the capital.
AMERICAS
UNITED STATES
Finally, TomDispatch’s Karen Greenberg looks at the gift that truly keeps on giving—the Global War on Terror:
This week marks the 22nd anniversary of the opening of the Guantánamo Bay detention facility, the infamous prison on the island of Cuba designed to hold detainees from this country’s Global War on Terror. It’s an anniversary that’s likely to go unnoticed, since these days you rarely hear about the war on terror — and for good reason. After all, that response to al-Qaeda’s 9/11 attacks, as defined over the course of three presidential administrations, has officially ended in a cascade of silence. Yes, international terrorism and the threat of such groups persist, but the narrative of American policy as a response to 9/11 seems to have faded away. Two and a half years ago, the Biden administration’s chaotic withdrawal from the 20-year-long Afghan War proved to be a last gasp (followed the next summer by the killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri, successor as al-Qaeda’s leader after Osama bin Laden was killed in 2011).
But Guantánamo, a prison that, from its founding, has violated U.S. codes of due process, fair treatment, and the promise of justice writ large isn’t the only unnerving legacy of the “war” on terror that still persists. If indefinite detention at Guantánamo was a key pillar of that war, defying longstanding American laws and norms, it was just one of the steps beyond those norms that still persist today.
In the days, weeks, and even years following the attacks of September 11th, the U.S. government took action to create new powers in the name of keeping the nation safe. Two of them, more than two decades after those attacks, are now rife with calls for change. Congress created the first just a week after 9/11 (with but a single no vote). It authorized unchecked and unending presidentially driven war powers that could be used without specified geographical limits — and, strangely enough, that power still remains in place, despite recent congressional efforts to curtail its authority. The second, the expansive use of secret surveillance powers on Americans, is currently under heated debate.