World roundup: February 9 2021
Stories from Iran, North Korea, Sudan, and more
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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
February 8, 1250: The Battle of al-Mansurah begins.
February 8, 1963: Iraq’s Ramadan Revolution
February 9, 1943: US Army Major General Alexander Patch confirms that Japanese forces have retreated from Guadalcanal, marking the end of the six month long Guadalcanal Campaign. Japan’s retreat allowed the US to establish bases on Guadalcanal and the island of Tulagi to support further Pacific operations. The US victory is regarded as one of the major turning points in World War II’s Pacific Theater, helping to put Japan on the defensive.
INTERNATIONAL
Worldometer’s coronavirus figures for February 9:
107,387,986 confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide (25,595,974 active, +377,975 since yesterday)
2,349,102 reported fatalities (+13,005 since yesterday)
In today’s global news:
A new report from the Natural Resource Governance Institute says that the world’s state-owned energy companies are invested in some $1.9 trillion worth of fossil fuel projects that all by themselves will ensure that the world cannot meet the already inadequate goals set by the 2015 Paris climate agreement. State owned energy companies are a huge driver of fossil fuel emissions and are generally far less transparent and far less susceptible to pressure than private firms. They’re not even necessarily driven by the need to turn a profit, which is kind of unfortunate in this situation because a large portion of that $1.9 trillion is invested in projects that are unlikely to ever reach profitability.
On the plus side, if these projects come to fruition we may all be dead well before their climate impacts really take place. A new study in the journal Environmental Research finds that air pollution from fossil fuel burning was responsible for 8.7 million deaths around the world in 2018. That’s about one-fifth of all global deaths for that year. Eastern Asia suffered the highest percentage of such deaths, driven mostly by outcomes in China and India. Other studies have established that fossil fuel-driven pollution takes a full year off of the average human lifespan globally and adds nearly $3 trillion to global health care expenditures. So we should definitely keep burning this stuff, and actually burn more of it, is apparently the conclusion we’ve decided to draw.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
14,611 confirmed coronavirus cases (+60)
961 reported fatalities (+3)
The Pentagon on Monday said that US military personnel in Syria are not guarding oil fields in the northeastern part of the country, contrary to what former President Donald Trump used to say. Instead, apparently, they’re guarding civilians, many of whom just happen to be working in and around those oil fields. As ever, the US military’s ability to split atoms is far surpassed by its ability to split hairs.
YEMEN
2131 confirmed cases (+0)
615 reported fatalities (+0)
At least 29 people have been killed and dozens more wounded in three days of fighting in Yemen’s Maʾrib region, according to Yemeni officials via the AP. The Houthis have undertaken a new offensive to capture Maʾrib city, the largest population center in northern Yemen that’s still in government hands. As far as I can tell there’s no breakdown of the casualties on each side. There’s no indication that the Houthis have gained any ground so far.
On Monday, General Kenneth McKenzie, the head of US Central Command, offered some clarification regarding the Biden administration’s decision to end support for “offensive” Saudi operations in Yemen:
“Over the last several weeks, a number of attacks have been launched out of Yemen against Saudi Arabia. We will help the Saudis defend against those attacks, like giving them intelligence when we can about those attacks,” the head of US Central Command said.
“What we will not do is help them strike, continue to conduct offensive operations into Yemen,” McKenzie said, adding that he discussed the matter with top Saudi officials during his latest trip to the region.
OK so this isn’t much of a clarification, fair enough. Helping the Saudis defend themselves against Houthi drone strikes is one thing, but what if the Saudis ask for assistance with retaliatory or preemptive attacks against the Houthis? Does the administration consider such strikes to be “offensive operations into Yemen?” Or is there some leeway wherein those kinds of operations could be considered “defensive”? The answer may seem obvious, but that doesn’t mean the administration views it that way. McKenzie also reiterated that the US will continue its “counter-terrorism” operations in Yemen against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and the Islamic State, which—given how enmeshed in the Yemeni war AQAP has become in particular—will likely complicate any effort to bring the conflict to an end.
TURKEY
2,548,195 confirmed cases (+8636)
26,998 reported fatalities (+98)
Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar appeared to offer a possible compromise on Tuesday with respect to the ongoing tension surrounding Turkey’s purchase of the Russian-made S-400 air defense system. That purchase has contributed significantly to a growing rift between Turkey on the one hand and the US and the rest of NATO on the other. Referring to Greece’s purchase of Russia’s S-300 system in the 1990s, which caused a similar kerfuffle until the Greek government said it would only deploy the system on Crete and would only activate it periodically, Akar suggested the Turks might be willing to make similar accommodations.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
703,719 confirmed cases (+7191) in Israel, 163,975 confirmed cases (+762) in Palestine
5216 reported fatalities (+45) in Israel, 1897 reported fatalities (+9) in Palestine
According to Palestinian media, Israeli naval forces attacked Palestinian fishing vessels off the coast of Gaza on Tuesday, which on land the Israeli military moved into the northern part of Gaza to tear up some farmland in favor of mounds of earth. Israeli soldiers reportedly even shot at Palestinian farmers who were, presumably, trying to figure out what the soldiers were doing to their farms. Assuming these reports are accurate, it’s unclear what, if anything, motivated these actions, and as far as I know Israeli officials haven’t commented. In other Gaza news, the Egyptian government has decided to reopen its border crossing at Rafah “indefinitely” after talks with officials from Hamas and from the Palestinian Authority’s ruling party, Fatah. The Egyptian government has tightly restricted Rafah’s operations for several years, partly due to tensions in Gaza but more recently due to the pandemic. This decision is likely a response to recent intra-Palestinian progress toward holding a new election.
In comments to CNN on Monday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken hinted that the Biden administration may not regard the Golan as Israeli territory, in contradiction with the Trump administration’s decision to recognize it as such. While characterizing control of the Golan as “of real importance to Israel’s security,” Blinken also suggested that “if the situation were to change in Syria,” the legal status of the Golan could be “something we look at.” I don’t want to make too much of this because Blinken may not have meant anything by it and regardless there’s not going to be any practical change in US policy that comes of it since the “situation” in Syria is unlikely to “change” in a way US policymakers could support. But it is interesting that Blinken didn’t just outright concur with Trump’s Golan policy, the way the Biden administration has chosen to do with respect to his decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem.
EGYPT
170,780 confirmed cases (+573)
9751 reported fatalities (+52)
Islamic State fighters killed at least six Bedouin in an attack in central Sinai on Tuesday, according to Egyptian authorities. One other person is missing after the incident. The IS fighters allegedly set up a phony checkpoint to entrap the Bedouin, whose tribe works with Egyptian security forces.
IRAN
1,481,396 confirmed cases (+7640)
58,625 reported fatalities (+89)
Iranian Intelligence Minister Mahmoud Alavi told state media on Tuesday that Iran does have a threshold for pursuing a nuclear weapon despite its repeated insistence that it has no interest in doing so. Specifically, Alavi was quoted as saying “our nuclear program is peaceful and the fatwa by the supreme leader has forbidden nuclear weapons, but if they push Iran in that direction, then it wouldn’t be Iran’s fault but those who pushed it.” So that happened.
This may not have been the most measured thing to say but it’s clearly intended to heighten pressure for the Biden administration to return the US to compliance with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Although Joe Biden and his advisers have expressed their desire to reestablish the JCPOA and pursue further diplomacy with Iran, so far they’ve done nothing but demand that Iran return to compliance with the agreement as a prerequisite, after which they say they’ll consider reciprocating. There’s no reason to expect that the Iranians will or should accept those terms. The US broke the agreement in 2018 and the onus ought to be on the US to repair the damage it’s caused. At this point both sides appear to be posturing, which is harmless enough as long as they manage to get beyond the posturing and start talking. Whether they can in fact do that is the key question.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
55,402 confirmed cases (+16)
2418 reported fatalities (+4)
At least five people were killed in two attacks in Kabul on Tuesday. Gunmen killed four in one incident in southern Kabul, while the fifth person died in a roadside bombing in the eastern part of the city. Taliban officials denied responsibility though the Taliban’s denials are generally not believed by the Afghan government and the US.
MYANMAR
141,448 confirmed cases (+21)
3180 reported fatalities (+3)
A fourth day of protests appears to have been the final straw for Myanmar’s ruling junta, whose security forces responded violently in the capital city, Naypyidaw. Police fired rubber bullets and water cannons at demonstrators and fired live ammunition warning shots—though at least one woman was reportedly in critical condition with a gunshot wound to the head, suggesting at least one police officer may have fired live ammunition at a person rather than into the air. Three other people were reportedly wounded with injuries consistent with rubber bullets. The United Nations and US officials condemned the violence. Authorities also raided the headquarters of former leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy party in Yangon.
CHINA
89,720 confirmed cases (+14) on the mainland, 10,694 confirmed cases (+26) in Hong Kong
4636 reported fatalities (+0) on the mainland, 188 reported fatalities (+2) in Hong Kong
Two US aircraft carriers, the USS Theodore Roosevelt and the USS Nimitz, along with their battle groups, conducted exercises in the disputed South China Sea on Tuesday. It’s probably not a coincidence that this operation comes just a few days after the Chinese military “warned off” a US warship in the vicinity of the Paracel Islands, also in the South China Sea. The US Navy frequently conducts operations in that body of water in order to challenge Beijing’s expansive claims there, but they generally aren’t this large.
Meanwhile, a World Health Organization investigative team in Wuhan says it’s “extremely unlikely” that the SARS-CoV2 pathogen emerged from a lab. Although the investigators haven’t been able to pinpoint the exact origins of the coronavirus, they seem more convinced than ever that it jumped from animals to humans without any mediation along the way. The theory that the virus emerged from a Chinese lab—always offered with at least a hint of ambiguity as to whether that emergence was accidental or deliberate—has mostly been popular among anti-China hawks in the US though evidence to support it has never amounted to more than innuendo. The investigators also say they’ve found evidence that the coronavirus may have been circulating for some time prior to its identification in Wuhan in December 2019.
NORTH KOREA
No acknowledged cases
A new report to the UN Security Council’s North Korea Sanctions committee finds—and you may want to sit down for this—that North Korea continued its nuclear weapons and missile programs throughout 2020 even though Donald Trump asked them not to do that. I know, who could have foreseen, etc. This is not exactly a surprise, given that Pyongyang has unveiled a host of seemingly brand new missile varieties over the past several months, but what may be new is the revelation that North Korean hackers helped finance these programs via the online theft of a bit over $316 million. That windfall helped make up for what appears to have been a pretty steep decline in North Korean coal exports. Historically coal—sold either legitimately or, you know, not—has been North Korea’s big money maker, but the report suggests exports largely ceased in July of last year.
AFRICA
SUDAN
27,717 confirmed cases (+0)
1835 reported fatalities (+0)
Towns and cities across Sudan were hit with demonstrations on Tuesday over the country’s weak economy. The US decision to remove Sudan from its state sponsors of terrorism list in December should help improve things but it will take time and the Sudanese economy has been critically weak for several years now. Further unrest could threaten to destabilize the country’s interim government.
Another threat to the interim government is the persistence of inter-communal violence in Darfur. Some 470 people are believed to have been killed last month in violent clashes between Arab and non-Arab tribes that began in West Darfur and spread into South Darfur. More than 120,000 are believed to have been displaced. It’s probably not coincidental that these clashes took place about a month after the UN withdrew its peacekeeping forces from the region. Inter-communal tensions have never really subsided in Darfur, and even though war criminal Omar al-Bashir is no longer in power in Khartoum many of the military leaders who carried out his Darfur genocide are now among the highest officials in the interim government.
MOROCCO
476,125 confirmed cases (+536) in Morocco, 10 confirmed cases (+0) in Western Sahara
8424 reported fatalities (+16) in Morocco, 1 reported fatality (+0) in Western Sahara
The Western Saharan rebel POLISARIO Front says its fighters killed three Moroccan soldiers in the Ouarkziz region in southern Morocco proper on Monday. POLISARIO is almost exclusively active in Western Sahara, so an attack on Moroccan forces in Morocco proper would represent an escalation in their insurgency. At this point as far as I can tell their claim hasn’t been confirmed.
ETHIOPIA
143,566 confirmed cases (+572)
2158 reported fatalities (+2)
Ethiopian soldiers reportedly fired on protesters in Tigray’s regional capital, Mekelle, on Tuesday, killing at least one person. The demonstrators were apparently blocking roads in the city with rocks and burning tires amid what may have been a general strike as several local businesses were apparently closed in a show of defiance.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
23,771 confirmed cases (+100)
684 reported fatalities (+3)
At least ten people were killed overnight in a likely attack by the Islamist Allied Democratic Forces militia on a village in North Kivu province. ADF fighters killed hundreds of people in the eastern DRC last year, most civilians as the group almost exclusively attacks small villages. The Islamic State claims that the ADF is part of its “Central Africa Province,” though there are no direct demonstrable links between the group and IS leadership.
EUROPE
HUNGARY
378,734 confirmed cases (+1079)
13,249 reported fatalities (+94)
The Hungarian government has taken Klubradio, one of the few remaining independent media outlets in the country, off the air over alleged “regulatory offenses.” These appear to amount to some late paperwork, suggesting that the excessive punishment was more a political act by an increasingly authoritarian government than a legitimate move against a rogue broadcaster. Klubradio officials say they intend to continue broadcasting as an internet-only outlet.
ITALY
2,655,319 confirmed cases (+10,630)
92,002 reported fatalities (+422)
Former European Central Bank boss and Prime Minister-designate Mario Draghi completed his second round of negotiations with the leaders of Italy’s major political parties on Tuesday and at this point none of them have outright refused to support his potential government. However, the Five Star Movement—the largest party in the Italian parliament—has reportedly decided to postpone a planned membership vote on whether or not to support Draghi. Five Star leadership seems inclined to back Draghi but party rank and file may not be on the same page, and that disconnect is probably the reason for the delay. If Draghi feels he has enough support to win confidence motions in both houses of parliament without Five Star he may proceed with forming his government rather than waiting for the party to make up its mind.
AMERICAS
COLOMBIA
2,166,904 confirmed cases (+5442)
56,507 reported fatalities (+217)
The Colombian government said Monday that it’s received a warning from the Cuban government about a possible attack by the National Liberation Army (ELN) rebel group against Bogotá. This is interesting, because in returning Cuba to the state sponsors of terrorism list last month, one of the things the Trump administration cited was the Cuban government’s alleged support for the ELN and its rebellion. There is an ELN negotiating team in Cuba that is there in case diplomacy should suddenly break out, though the Colombian government has in the past called for Havana to extradite those negotiators. Who apparently claim, by the way, to have no knowledge of any planned attack on or in Bogotá, though given how decentralized the ELN is that may not indicate anything.
UNITED STATES
27,799,946 confirmed cases (+95,542)
479,772 reported fatalities (+3265)
Finally, Responsible Statecraft’s Paul Pillar argues that if Joe Biden is really committed to holding a “democracy summit” he shouldn’t downplay the United States’ own recent challenges in that regard:
Critics argue with good reason that U.S. credibility as the convenor of a global meeting on democracy is deficient. James Goldgeier and Bruce Jentleson have suggested that instead of an international meeting, the United States should hold a domestic summit meeting about what needs to be done to shore up democracy at home.
Supporters of the administration’s plan to hold an international meeting argue, also with good reason, that after four years of Donald Trump’s open preference for autocrats over democrats, a U.S.-led boost to the cause of democracy worldwide is needed more than ever.
Given that the administration seems determined to hold a global summit, America’s patent democratic deficiencies ought to be recognized in the messaging at the meeting. Humility needs to be part of the approach. Any other approach would not be credible.