World roundup: February 6-7 2021
Stories from Yemen, South Africa, Ecuador, and more
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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
February 5, 1810: A French army begins the two and a half year Siege of Cádiz, which had by this point in the Peninsular War become the capital of the rump government resisting Napoleon’s occupation of Spain. The defenders managed to hold out, even taking time to write a new Spanish Constitution (which was later discarded), until the Duke of Wellington led a British-Portuguese-Spanish army to victory at the Battle of Salamanca in July 1812. Suddenly facing the possibility that his besieging army could be cut off and surrounded, French general Jean-de-Dieu Soult lifted the siege and retreated. The Peninsular War continued until Wellington and the armies of the Sixth Coalition defeated and ousted Napoleon in 1814.
February 5, 1859: Prince Alexandru Ioan Cuza of Moldavia is elected prince of Wallachia, uniting the two principalities in a personal union called, creatively, the “United Principalities of Moldavia and Wallachia.” In 1862 they joined in a formal union called the “Romanian United Principalities,” and in 1866 that was shortened to simply “Romania.” The state then declared its independence from the Ottomans in 1877. Modern Romania gained additional territory after World War I, including Transylvania and parts of Banat, Bessarabia, and Bukovina.
February 6, 1840: British and Māori representatives sign the Treaty of Waitangi, officially making New Zealand a British colony. The Māori were looking for British protection from France and for recognition of their own property and individual rights. However, owing to differences between the English and Māori versions of the treaty it seems Māori leaders may not have fully understood just how much they were giving up in the process. The English version ascribes substantially greater power to the British crown than is apparent in the Māori version, and you can probably guess which version British authorities treated as authoritative. Under the terms of the treaty all Māori property and rights were supposed to be protected, though it only took British colonial authorities a couple of decades to thoroughly breach that part of the arrangement.
February 6, 1981: Uganda’s National Resistance Army rebels against the government of Milton Obote following a disputed election in December. This marked the start of the most important phase of the Ugandan civil war, or Ugandan Bush War, though the conflict had begun in October 1980 with an uprising in the West Nile region. The NRA captured Kampala in January 1986, overthrowing the military government that had ousted Obote in a coup the year before. The rebels then set up a new government under their leader, Yoweri Museveni, who has been president of Uganda ever since.
February 7, 1992: The 12 member states of the European Community—Belgium, Denmark, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, the United Kingdom, and West Germany—sign the Maastricht Treaty, deepening European integration and helping to create the European Union. The EU now consists of 27 member states, while one of these founding dozen, the UK, has very famously quit the bloc.
INTERNATIONAL
Worldometer’s coronavirus figures for February 7:
106,676,224 confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide (25,828,994 active, +345,262 since yesterday)
2,326,773 reported fatalities (+7778 since yesterday)
MIDDLE EAST
YEMEN
2127 confirmed coronavirus cases (+0)
615 reported fatalities (+0)
The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen reported Sunday that its forces shot down four Houthi drones heading for Saudi Arabia. That’s a substantial number for a single day, at least by Houthi standards. Perhaps they were celebrating the news that dropped late Friday just as I was sending out that evening’s update: the Biden administration has decided to rescind the terrorist designation the Trump administration slapped on the Houthis just before it left office (it went into effect on January 19).
Coming on the heels of the administration’s announcement that it’s ending US support for “offensive” Saudi operations in Yemen, the decision to reverse the Houthi designation was the second piece of good Yemeni news Joe Biden made in as many days. And unlike the previous day’s declaration, which is marked by uncertainty (specifically over what Biden and company consider to be an “offensive” action), removing the terrorist designation is unambiguously positive. Concerns that the designation might complicate the process of negotiating an end to the war are now gone. Also gone are worries that the designation would impact humanitarian relief efforts and/or discourage companies from selling basic necessities to Yemeni importers, or that it might interfere with United Nations-led efforts to stop the impending environmental disaster looming off of Yemen’s Red Sea coast.
There is one main counterargument to all of this—that lifting the designation will embolden the Houthis. It’s possible there’s some truth to this, but the obvious question that raises is whether it’s worth starving northern Yemeni civilians in order to Teach The Houthis A Lesson. Another important question would be why, if the terrorist designation was such a good and vital step, did the Trump administration not take it until literally its final day in office? It’s not as though Donald Trump and Friends were circumspect about Yemeni lives or when it comes to sanctioning perceived enemies. Yet even they were unwilling to face the consequences of the designation, leaving them instead for the Biden administration to clean up.
IRAN
1,466,435 confirmed cases (+7065)
58,469 reported fatalities (+57)
In his big Super Bowl interview with CBS Evening News anchor Norah O’Donnell, Joe Biden made a couple of comments related to the dwindling chances of reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action:
I can’t decide whether O’Donnell, whom you might remember from her nauseatingly puffball interview with Mohammed bin Salman back in 2018, is intentionally misleading her audience or is just ignorant of the details (Larison highlights some evidence for the former here), but the whole exchange is factually wrong. The sanctions relief isn’t meant “to get Iran back to the negotiating table,” it’s meant to get Iran to return to compliance with the deal that’s already been negotiated. Then maybe discussions can begin on some kind of follow-on deal. And the US demand isn’t that Iran “stop its enrichment program,” it’s that Iran returns to the level of enrichment permitted by the JCPOA. This is the anchor of one of the three network newscasts and she’s either lying or doesn’t know what she’s talking about. Not great! That Biden either doesn’t know enough to correct her or isn’t able to do so in the moment (his handlers clarified what he meant after these clips hit Twitter) is, needless to say, pretty troubling as well.
One potential obstacle to restoring the JCPOA seems to have been resolved, in that Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on Sunday that Tehran isn’t looking for compensation for the economic damage it suffered after the US withdrew from the agreement in 2018. There was some possibility the Iranians would make such a demand, though there’s no way the US would have acceded to it. Of course, Zarif and his boss, President Hassan Rouhani, aren’t going to be in office much longer with a presidential election happening in June. The uncertainty about who will replace them, and what they might demand, is part of the reason why the Biden administration should move expeditiously to restore the JCPOA.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
55,359 confirmed cases (+24)
2413 reported fatalities (+3)
Two bombings in Kabul on Saturday killed at least three people and wounded four others. Two Sikhs were killed in one blast, and if they were intentionally targeted that’s a pretty strong signal that the Islamic State was responsible. The second incident saw one police officer killed by a magnetic bomb, which could be either IS or the Taliban.
MYANMAR
141,304 confirmed cases (+0)
3168 reported fatalities (+0)
Public outrage over Monday’s military coup in Myanmar exploded over the weekend, as tens of thousands of people joined mass protests in cities and towns across the country on Saturday and again on Sunday:
The demonstrations proceeded despite a full internet blackout the junta imposed on Saturday before restoring service on Sunday afternoon—it’s unclear why authorities restored service and as far as I know they haven’t made any announcement about it.
The protests appear to have been largely peaceful, which is interesting given the Tatmadaw’s history of not being terribly patient with public protests. That might have something to do with the fact that the demonstrations, which were largest in Myanmar’s biggest city, Yangbon, were reportedly far smaller in the country’s capital, Naypyidaw. Or maybe junta leaders are cognizant of drawing too much negative international attention. Regardless, I would assume their patience is not infinite and a crackdown could be on the way if these demonstrations continue.
OCEANIA
PALAU
No confirmed cases
The Pacific Islands Forum, an 18 member body including Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, and several small Pacific states, is facing a bit of a membership crisis. On Thursday, the group collectively chose Henry Puna, former prime minister of the Cook Islands, as its new secretary-general. Seems uncontroversial enough, except apparently the organization’s Micronesian bloc was supposed to name the new secretary-general under a sort of informal rotation system the PIF typically uses. And, well, that didn’t happen. As a result Palau, one of the five members of that bloc, has announced it’s quitting the PIF altogether, and it looks like the Marshall Islands might be looking for the exit as well.
The PIF isn’t NATO or even the European Union, so Palau’s exit isn’t going to get a dumb nickname and massive amounts of media coverage. But the organization is fairly important to US foreign policy in the Pacific, in that it’s a means by which the Australian government in particular can try to keep those small island nations from sliding too deeply into China’s orbit. So if it is breaking up that could be a significant development from Washington’s perspective.
AFRICA
SOMALIA
4862 confirmed cases (+8)
134 reported fatalities (+0)
A roadside bomb killed at least 13 people on Sunday in central Somalia’s Galmudug state. Al-Shabab claimed responsibility for the attack, which killed a senior regional intelligence official. The bombing took place near the town of Dhusamareeb, where Somali federal officials had been meeting with the leaders of the country’s various state governments to try to hash out a plan to organize a now-overdue parliamentary election. That effort collapsed on Saturday, so needless to say Monday’s scheduled (indirect) presidential election won’t be taking place. Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed suggested that he intends to give talks with regional leaders one more shot before potentially attempting to impose a federal solution on the states. It seems likely that an imposed electoral program would meet heavy resistance, especially from strong regional governments in Puntland and Jubaland.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
23,599 confirmed cases (+114)
681 reported fatalities (+2)
At least 12 people were killed in what appears to have been an Allied Democratic Forces attack on the village of Mabule in the DRC’s North Kivu province that took place overnight Friday-Saturday. That death toll is probably going to rise—one unofficial count has it at 14 and there are still people missing.
Congolese officials on Sunday declared a new Ebola case in North Kivu province. The eastern DRC just emerged from a nearly two year long Ebola epidemic in June. Public health systems in that part of the country are minimal and the delivery of medial aid is greatly complicated by the presence of several militant groups including the ADF.
SOUTH AFRICA
1,476,135 confirmed cases (+2435)
46,290 reported fatalities (+110)
I’m not a medical doctor or anything but this seems like it might not be good:
South Africa halted use of the AstraZeneca-Oxford coronavirus vaccine on Sunday after evidence emerged that the vaccine did not protect clinical-trial participants from mild or moderate illness caused by the more contagious virus variant that was first seen there.
The findings were a devastating blow to the country’s efforts to combat the pandemic.
Scientists in South Africa said on Sunday that a similar problem held among people who had been infected by earlier versions of the coronavirus: the immunity they acquired naturally did not appear to protect them from mild or moderate cases when reinfected by the variant, known as B.1.351.
The B.1.351 variant has now shown up in 32 countries so this is not just South Africa’s problem. Other drug companies have said that their vaccines also show reduced effectiveness against this strain. On the plus side, there’s reason to think that all of these vaccines, including AstraZeneca’s, will still prevent severe health impacts in B.1.351 patients, but more research on that front is needed.
EUROPE
UKRAINE
1,244,849 confirmed cases (+3370)
23,597 reported fatalities (+81)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has shut down three Ukrainian television stations for allegedly broadcasting Russian propaganda. So, you know, freedom is on the march or whatever. The stations apparently weren’t broadcasting pro-Russia material outright, but they did refer to the Donbas conflict as a “civil war” rather than a case of Russian aggression, and they covered Russia’s annexation of Crimea favorably. They all appear to be owned by a shady pro-Russian oligarch named Viktor Medvedchuk, who also backs the Opposition Platform for Life party. That party, as it happens, has nudged past Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party in terms of public support.
Zelenskyy’s decision to shut these stations down is being hailed in the West but has received something of a mixed reception in Ukraine, where many people are old enough to remember when their president promised he would “never, ever shut down any TV networks” all the way back in, ah, 2019. Well, I mean, you can’t hold people to things they said when they were young and impulsive, right? Anyway, the issue may be less about these three stations in particular and more about Zelenskyy’s penchant for choosing what’s expedient over what’s consistent.
SWITZERLAND
531,873 confirmed cases (+0)
9613 reported fatalities (+7)
Negotiations between the European Union and Switzerland on a single treaty to replace the multiple separate agreements governing their bilateral relationship are, apparently, not going so well:
The European Union will not reopen parts of a stalled bilateral treaty with Switzerland, the EU ambassador to the Alpine republic said in an interview with newspaper Blick, taking a hard line on Swiss misgivings over talks that have lasted years.
“What we won’t do is reopen the controversial dossiers,” Petros Mavromichalis told the Swiss newspaper. “The negotiations are done.”
Switzerland has said in the past it seeks clarifications on issues including state aid, EU citizens’ access to Swiss welfare benefits and unilateral Swiss rules designed to protect the country’s high-wage labour market from competition from cross-border workers.
Mavromichalis said Swiss demands including requiring companies from the European Union to register their intent to work in Switzerland eight days in advance are unacceptable, saying a four-day registration rule is sufficient.
ITALY
2,636,738 confirmed cases (+11,641)
91,273 reported fatalities (+270)
Italy’s two largest parties, the Five Star Movement and the League, have both thrown their support behind former European Central Bank head Mario Draghi’s bid to be prime minister. In doing so, Five Star backtracked on its earlier opposition to Draghi and the League backtracked on previous statements suggesting it wouldn’t support Draghi if Five Star did. Draghi should now have enough votes to form a government, though he still has to put forward a cabinet and an agenda and get buy-in from the parties on both. But as I mentioned a few days ago it remains to be seen whether he’ll actually have enough support in practice to be able to govern. Draghi’s main priority will be securing and deciding how to use European recovery and stabilization funding, and beyond that he’ll presumably try to hang on through Italy’s next general election, which is supposed to take place in 2023. There’s a pretty good chance his coalition will break down at some point before then, however, at which point a snap election would be the likely outcome.
AMERICAS
ECUADOR
258,282 confirmed cases (+1167)
15,012 reported fatalities (+8)
Leftist candidate Andrés Arauz appears to have won the first round of Ecaudor’s presidential election on Sunday, but he does not appear to have avoided a runoff. Exit polling has Arauz winning somewhere in the neighborhood of 35 percent of the vote, shy of either the 50 percent plus one or the 40 percent plus a ten point margin of victory he would have needed to win outright. He’ll likely face conservative Guillermo Lasso in the runoff, which will probably take place in April.
HAITI
11,806 confirmed cases (+0)
246 reported fatalities (+0)
Haitian President Jovenel Moïse said on Sunday that his government had foiled an attempted coup and announced the arrest of 20 people, including Supreme Court Judge Yvickel Dabrézil, in connection with the alleged plot. Opposition leaders have called for the release of these prisoners—particularly Dabrézil, who should have some measure of immunity as a judge. Details on the alleged coup plot are unclear and Moïse hasn’t offered any evidence supporting his claims as yet.
At the heart of this situation is a dispute over the length of Moïse’s presidential term. Technically Moïse was elected in 2015 and should have taken office in February 2016, which would mean his term is up this year. But because of disputes over the outcome of the 2015 vote, that election was voided and Moïse won a do-over election in November 2016 and took office in February 2017. The opposition wants to date the start of his term to 2016, when it legally should have begun, but because he didn’t actually take office until 2017 due to the re-vote, Moïse insists he’s entitled to remain in office until next year.
UNITED STATES
27,611,403 confirmed cases (+89,691)
474,933 reported fatalities (+1340)
The Biden administration announced Saturday that it is suspending the “safe third country” agreements the Trump administration made with the governments of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. Those deals enabled US immigration officials to send asylum seekers back to those countries to force them to seek asylum there first. It’s mostly been used to dump migrants back in Central America while helping to spread COVID-19 to boot. The administration also appears inclined not to allow Donald Trump to receive classified briefings, a privilege that’s been extended to past former presidents. And, you know, I can see their point on that one.
Finally, and speaking of which, over at TomDispatch John Feffer wonders about the long-term effects the Trump years will have on US standing internationally:
On the surface, the international community has generally provided a warm welcome to the incoming administration, if only out of profound relief at seeing the backside of Donald Trump. True, it took Vladimir Putin a while to get around to acknowledging Joe Biden’s victory, while Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil grumbled about the departure of his American BFF, as did Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and a number of other right-wing populists.
But Biden was a clear international favorite in the recent presidential election. According to an Ipsos poll of people in 24 countries, Biden had an edge of 48% to 17% over Trump, with only the Russians as outliers. And postelection, the favorability of the United States has only risen (except perhaps in Russia and China).
Beneath the surface, however, the world is hesitant, like an oft-jilted lover. Country after country has been burned too many times to throw itself back into such a relationship without reservations, if not a full-blown prenuptial agreement. As NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg put it with characteristic understatement, “There is a need to rebuild trust between Europe and the United States.” Indeed, just about every member of the U.N. General Assembly would undoubtedly have agreed.
Such an erosion of trust defines what it means to be an unreliable superpower. Even as the Biden administration works to “build back better,” allies and adversaries alike are busy hedging their bets, concerned that the United States is simply too unpredictable a place to park political capital. And where it remains all-too-predictable — as in its preposterous levels of military spending or its obdurate sense of exceptionalism — Washington no longer looks to many like a reliable global actor from the perspective of peace or prosperity.