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TODAY IN HISTORY
February 26, 1616: The Catholic Inquisition orders Italian astronomer Galileo Galilei “to abstain completely from teaching or defending” the doctrine of Copernican heliocentrism (that the Earth revolves around the sun rather than vice versa). Church theologians deemed the doctrine heretical because it diverged from the plain text of the Bible. Galileo accepted the ruling, but in 1632 he published Dialogue Concerning the Two Chief World Systems, which involves a debate between a Copernican scholar and a defender of the Church’s position whom Galileo named “Simplicio.” The dialogue structure satisfied a papal request that he write about heliocentrism by presenting both sides of the argument, but even so Church officials felt that its conclusions were slanted toward Galileo’s point of view. They once again charged him with heresy, forced him to recant, and eventually sentenced him to house arrest.
February 26, 1815: Napoleon Bonaparte escapes his exile on the island of Elba in a bid to return to France and restore his empire. The erstwhile emperor entered Paris on March 20, chasing off the just enthroned Bourbon king, Louis XVIII, and beginning the “hundred days,” his brief revival/reunion tour. Napoleon’s attempt at a second act came to an end on June 18 at the Battle of Waterloo, in which British and Prussian armies won a decisive victory. He withdrew to Paris to find that the city had already turned against him, and abdicated on June 22. His second exile, on the more remote island of St. Helena, would prove permanent.
MIDDLE EAST
TURKEY
I don’t know how much to make of this, but Defence Industry Europe reported on Wednesday that the Turkish government “is preparing to sign” a $500 billion energy and finance package with the US that could “pave the way” to restoring its position in the F-35 program. The energy piece would include favorable terms for US companies to explore for oil and gas in Turkish waters and possibly in Syria and Libya as well, as both are to some degree Turkish clients. The US suspended Turkey from the F-35 in 2019 over concerns that its then-newly acquired Russian S-400 air defense systems could be manipulated to reveal classified information about Turkish F-35s to Moscow. That’s still a concern that the Turks would likely have to address somehow.
SYRIA
The Israeli military (IDF) staged another in what has become a series of “incursions” into southern Syria’s Quneitra province on Wednesday, conducting some sort of “search operation” and abducting at least one person. The rationale, assuming there was one, for the raid is unclear but The New Arab’s Alessandra Bajec argues that the goal is to create a “West Bank-style occupation” in the region:
Israeli troops have carried out several cross-border operations in the south of Syria in recent weeks, invading villages, raiding homes, and detaining civilians. While some detainees were later released, others were taken to undisclosed locations with no information on their fate.
The incursions are the latest in an ongoing pattern of Israeli actions in southern Syria, including ground operations, artillery shelling, the destruction of agricultural land, and the arrest of civilians at checkpoints, particularly in the provinces of Quneitra and Daraa.
These operations are taking place despite an agreement reached on 6 January between Syria and Israel to set up a joint coordination mechanism for sharing intelligence, promoting military de-escalation, and engaging diplomatically under US oversight.
The Syrian government and the Druze “National Guard” militia in Suwayda province exchanged prisoners on Thursday, with the former expected to release 61 civilians in return for the release of 25 or 30 (there are diverging accounts of this) government security personnel. The “National Guard” group is led by Druze sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, who has rejected Damascus’s authority and has encouraged Israeli intervention in support of Syrian Druze autonomy/independence.
LEBANON
The IDF bombarded eastern Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley again on Thursday, killing at least one person (a 16 year old Syrian national) and wounding another 29. Israeli officials claim they were targeting Hezbollah encampments.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The IDF killed at least three people in Gaza on Thursday, two in an airstrike in Gaza City and one alleged “militant” who crossed the “yellow line” in the southern part of the territory. Meanwhile, Trump administration envoy Bishara Bahbah is reportedly drafting a proposal for Hamas’s “gradual disarmament” that he will present to the group at some point. It would start with heavy weaponry and progress from there to addressing Hamas’s tunnel network and small arms. There’s still no indication that Hamas will be amenable to any disarmament whether gradual or otherwise.
Bahbah, who has become the administration’s unofficial ambassador to Hamas, told the Saudi newspaper Al-Sharq Al-Awsat that the plan is for both the “international stabilization force” and the “technocratic” administrative committee to enter Gaza in April. The ceasefire plan envisions a Palestinian police force alongside the international one, and according to Bahbah the work to recruit and train members of that force is underway. Hamas is also apparently interested in integrating its police units into the new institution, which would probably be unacceptable to the Israeli government but what do I know?
IRAQ
The Iraqi Shiʿa Coordination Framework is reportedly planning to make a final decision on its nominee for prime minister next week. Former PM Nouri al-Maliki is the alliance’s designated PM candidate, but the Trump administration opposes his election and The New Arab is reporting that it has given the Framework until Friday to name a new candidate or risk sanctions. It’s unclear if the administration’s threats have caused any Framework parties to rethink their plans. Current PM Mohammed Shiaʿ al-Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Coalition is the largest bloc in the Framework and may be the likeliest to turn on Maliki. Sudani pursued another term as PM after November’s parliamentary election but couldn’t gain majority support within the Framework and withdrew from the leadership race. He may welcome this US pressure as a means to reignite his candidacy.
IRAN
It’s hard to know what to make of Thursday’s US-Iran nuclear negotiations in Geneva. On the one hand, Donald Trump hasn’t ordered any airstrikes yet so I guess that’s something. Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi, who served as primary mediator, even went so far as to claim that they made “significant progress” and said that he’s expecting a round of “technical” talks between the parties next week and then another full negotiating session at some point after that.
On the other hand, the parties didn’t actually agree on anything and in fact may have taken a step back from where things seemed to be heading in the days leading up to this session. That’s if The Wall Street Journal’s account is to be believed. According to its sources, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner went into Geneva with the same maximalist set of demands and minimalist set of concessions that they brought into the two previous rounds of negotiations—specifically, that Iran destroy all of its nuclear sites, turn over its enriched uranium to the US, and agree to a permanent ban on nuclear activity (aside, I guess, from operating their nuclear power plants). Those demands haven’t been acceptable to the Iranians to date, and if the administration isn’t willing to do any actual “negotiating”—as opposed to setting ultimatums as it’s been doing so far—then military conflict seems inevitable.
Notably, the Trump administration has been conspicuously quiet since the session ended. That may indicate that it is deliberating whether to continue with negotiations or move on to the war.
UPDATE: MS Now reported late Thursday that Busaidi is heading to Washington on Friday to meet with US Vice President JD Vance and other Trump administration officials. It sounds like he’s being asked to pitch the case for allowing the diplomatic process to keep going. I would guess this means that the administration is ready to go to war but there are at least some people within it who are open to being talked out of that course of action.
Prior to Thursday it had been reported in several outlets that the administration was considering a deal that would allow Iran to retain a very limited uranium enrichment program, but there’s no indication that was on the table in Geneva. It still doesn’t even seem like the administration is offering Iran any meaningful sanctions relief, which is the easiest concession it could make. The US position still seems to be surrender or war, which is certainly a position one could take but it probably means war. According to Barak Ravid, Witkoff and Kushner were “disappointed” with what they heard from the Iranians in their morning meetings, presumably because they were expecting unconditional surrender, but it’s possible that something clicked later in the day that left them feeling better about where things are at. Whatever they say to Trump may determine whether the war starts this weekend or is held off until the next session.
The administration may also be trying to engineer a more politically palatable conflict. According to POLITICO some “senior advisers” to Trump would like the IDF to attack Iran first, so that they can use an Iranian retaliation as a pretext for a war that most Americans oppose in polling. Instead of launching a war of choice on a whim the administration would try to claim that the conflict had actually been foisted upon them by circumstance. It would be transparently bullshit but it could very well work on the US public—or at least on Trump worshippers.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
The Pakistani and Afghan militaries traded heavy fire on Thursday in the latest escalation in their ongoing conflict. In this case Afghan forces appear to have struck first in retaliation for Sunday’s Pakistani bombardment of what Islamabad claims were militant bases on the Afghan side of the border. The Pakistani military responded to what it claimed was “unprovoked fire” by the Afghans, though it seems like it was at least arguably provoked under the circumstances.
As has become the norm in these situations the two governments offered wildly divergent claims about the outcome, with each claiming to have either destroyed or captured several of the other party’s border posts. Each side is also claiming to have killed dozens of the other’s forces, with those claims seemingly getting higher by the hour. None of these claims can be verified at the moment.
Early Friday morning, local time, the Pakistani military undertook another round of airstrikes targeting Kandahar province and Kabul, among other areas. What’s significant here is that the Pakistanis attacked both the political capital of Afghanistan (Kabul) and the heartland of its Taliban leadership (Kandahar) so there’s really no claiming that this attack was only about striking militants along the border. This all but ensures another Afghan retaliation and things may really start to get carried away at that point.
(I am aware that there are rumors circulating on social media regarding the whereabouts of Afghan Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada and Pakistani Taliban leader Noor Wali Mehsud following these airstrikes, but unless/until they get picked up by something approaching a reputable source I’m not going to get into it.)
NORTH KOREA
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un closed out the Workers’ Party of Korea Congress this week with messages for the governments of South Korea and the US. To the latter, Kim offered that as long as the US “respects our country’s current status as stipulated in the Constitution … and withdraws its hostile policy … there is no reason why we cannot get along well with the United States.” To the former, Kim seemed to dismiss the possibility of dialogue altogether. Wednesday’s festivities included a military parade, held after Kim declared that Pyongyang has “permanently cemented” its status as a nuclear-armed state.
AFRICA
SUDAN
According to the Sudan Doctors Network, that Rapid Support Forces attack on the North Darfur town of Misteriha earlier this week displaced more than 3000 people on top of the (at least) 28 who were killed and (at least) 39 who were wounded. The apparent target of that attack, tribal grandee Musa Hilal, managed to evade RSF fighters and has reportedly fled to government-held territory outside of Darfur.
RWANDA
Amid the continued conflict between Rwandan-backed M23 militants and the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s military, The Wall Street Journal reports that US Senator Lindsey Graham is helping Rwanda avoid US sanctions:
In late January, Rwandan President Paul Kagame placed a call to U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham asking him to help stop the White House from imposing sanctions on his country for breaking a peace deal brokered by President Trump.
Graham obliged—arguing that Rwanda was a reliable U.S. partner and sanctions could alienate it. The White House shelved the sanctions, according to several officials familiar with the matter.
The events, which haven’t been reported before, point to divisions within the U.S. government over how to handle Rwanda, whose actions via armed proxies have reignited the war in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The renewal in recent months of one of the world’s longest-running armed conflicts and biggest humanitarian disasters is calling into question one of Trump’s diplomatic accomplishments as he presents himself as a global dealmaker who has ended multiple wars.
The peace deal that Trump “brokered” doesn’t include M23, but it does implicitly oblige Kagame to halt the group’s uprising in the eastern DRC. He hasn’t done that, though both Rwanda and M23 blame the DRC government for the failure to bring that conflict to an end.
SOUTH AFRICA
Reuters reported on Thursday that the Trump administration is now hoping “to process 4,500 refugee applications from white South Africans per month.” The US State Department is installing trailers on its embassy compound Pretoria in an effort to expand consular operations to that level. Back in October the administration capped the number of refugee admissions to the US at 7500 for all of FY2026, just to give you some sense of how absurd this is. I don’t have anything else to say about this save that for this administration, closing the US off to all refugees save for Afrikaners is so on the nose it feels like a plot point that would get you laughed out of a sitcom writers’ room.
EUROPE
UKRAINE
US and Ukrainian officials met in Geneva on Thursday to discuss issues related primarily to Ukrainian security and reconstruction ahead of the next round of US-Russia-Ukraine peace talks. After that session, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that said talks will probably take place early next month in Abu Dhabi. Zelensky is once again pushing for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, something that Putin has rejected in the past and will probably reject again while questioning Zelensky’s legitimacy in the absence of a new Ukrainian election.
Zelensky suggested that he and Putin could “resolve all the complex and sensitive issues and finally end the war” but that’s almost certainly not true. A leaders’ meeting tends to be the last and least productive step in these sorts of processes, happening only once there’s an agreement in principle. What Zelensky wants is to force Putin to acknowledge him as Ukraine’s legitimate head of state by engaging with him.
HUNGARY
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is now asking the European Union to investigate the Ukrainian government’s claims regarding damage to the Druzhba pipeline that’s supposed to carry Russian oil to Hungary. Orbán has accused Ukrainian officials of shutting the pipeline down to weaken the Hungarian economy, but Ukrainian officials insist that a Russian attack damaged the facility last month and it hasn’t yet been fully repaired. Orbán seems to be using the pipeline to fuel nationalist sentiment among Hungarian voters ahead of April’s parliamentary election.
DENMARK
Speaking of elections, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has ordered a snap parliamentary vote for March 24. Denmark was scheduled to hold its regular election sometime this fall so this is not a huge shift in timing, but she is hoping to capitalize on a bit of a polling bump for her personally and for her Social Democrats in recent weeks. Frederiksen has been prominent in defending Danish interests in Greenland against Donald Trump’s designs on annexing that island and it seems to be winning her some additional support with voters. She’ll be hoping to ride that wave into a successful election result.
AMERICAS
CUBA
At least two of the four men whom Cuban security forces killed in a gun battle at sea on Wednesday morning were US citizens, according to CNN. Cuban authorities have identified all ten of the men who were on the boat (the other six were injured and arrested in the incident) as “Cuban nationals residing in the US.” It seems clear that they were engaged in a very misguided attempt to “liberate” the island, and the amount of weapons and materiel that Cuban officials found aboard their vessel suggests that they were planning (I use the term loosely) for an extended operation. There’s no indication as yet that their plans were known to anyone outside of fringe elements of the Cuban expat community but that is certainly an open question that the Cuban government is going to try to answer. The only comment I’ve seen so far from the Trump administration came from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who called the incident “highly unusual.”
UNITED STATES
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei issued a statement on Thursday reiterating his opposition to allowing the Pentagon to use his company’s large language model, “Claude,” for domestic surveillance or in autonomous weapons systems. At the same time the company did weaken its safety policy this week, so it’s hard to say exactly where it stands vis-à-vis Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s threats to cancel its defense contract. Spencer Ackerman wonders if this dust up may be for show:
Maybe this is just Hegseth’s instinctive dominance politics. But it looks more like another example of theater. Were Anthropic actually concerned with limiting the weaponization of AI, it would not have signed an up-to-$200 million contract last fall with the Pentagon. I suspect that Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei wants to appear like a reluctant war profiteer while he delivers the weaponization of AI that he made such a show of rejecting. That’s been the stance of the AI world—with the exception of the more honest and straightforwardly bloodthirsty Palantir-Anduril faction—while pursuing the military contracts that provide a plausible use-case often missing for the non-military commercial market. I was relieved to listen to the latest episode of the (quite good) Turbulence podcast and hear Edward Ongweso Jr. hold that suspicion as well. And already, Anthropic this week began unwinding some of its earlier safe-development pledges.
Then last night I had dinner with an AI-skeptic friend who saw it much the same way. My friend cautioned me that militarizing AI won’t “work.” By that, they meant that the AI companies misrepresent the capabilities of their LLMs so frequently as to have it be essential to their business model. Valuable point. But militarizing AI is not about precision—meaning the machine-learning discernment of “Legitimate Target” from “Unrelated Civilian”—but scale.
Particularly in light of the looming war with Iran, Spencer argues that what the Trump administration is after is its own version of the Israeli AI projects that contributed significantly to the decimation of Gaza and so much of its population. There doesn’t seem to be anything in Amodei’s objections that would prevent “Claude” from being used to, say, develop a list of Iranian targets and determine the best opportunities for striking them, civilian casualties be damned. On the other hand, given Israel’s likely involvement in such a conflict the Pentagon could just tap into those same systems to achieve its war aims.