World roundup: February 2 2021
Stories from Myanmar, Ethiopia, Italy, and more
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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
February 1, 1713: The Skirmish at Bendery
February 1, 1979: Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returns to Iran after years in exile.
February 2, 1982: The Hama Massacre begins
February 2, 1943: The remnants of the German Sixth Army surrender to the Soviets, ending the Battle of Stalingrad a bit over five months after it started. The combined Axis army that attacked Stalingrad suffered upwards of 1 million casualties as well as the loss of thousands of vehicles, the initiative on World War II’s Eastern Front, and the sense of inevitability that previous Axis victories had created. The battle served as a turning point, after which it would be the Red Army, not the Axis, that was on the offensive.
INTERNATIONAL
Worldometer’s coronavirus figures for February 2:
104,376,035 confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide (25,882,897 active, +443,207 since yesterday)
2,262,004 reported fatalities (+14,457 since yesterday)
In today’s global news:
New research suggests that pessimistic estimates of the extent to which sea levels will rise over the next century have not been pessimistic enough. A study by the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen assesses that seas will rise 1.35 meters by 2100, compared with 1.1 meters in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The Copenhagen researchers argue that the IPCC’s model has not been sensitive enough to observed historical sea level data.
Transparency International has released its 2020 Corruption Perceptions Index, which uses surveys and other tools to gauge the level of corruption in a given country, and it looks like South Sudan and Somalia are the big winners! No, wait, I have the list upside down. They’re actually the most corrupt countries in the world according to the CPI, which is admittedly based on subjective inputs but generally correlates well with more objective measures of corruption like black market activity. New Zealand and Denmark were 2020’s least corrupt nations, with the United States, that Shining City On A Hill, in, ah, 25th place. Well, I suppose some moderate corruption helps to spice things up, right?
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
14,142 confirmed coronavirus cases (+46)
929 reported fatalities (+3)
The Syrian Democratic Forces have reportedly cut a deal with the Syrian government to stop besieging government-controlled neighborhoods in the city of Hasakah. That siege led to protests against the SDF in those neighborhoods over the weekend, during which one person was killed by Kurdish security forces. It’s unclear whether that person was a civilian or a Syrian soldier. The agreement also applies to government-held neighborhoods in the city of Qamishli, which had been under a similar siege. While the SDF and Syrian government have largely remained on cordial terms during Syria’s civil war, there are tensions over control of northeastern Syria’s cities and its oil fields as well as over the issue of Kurdish self-determination. Those tensions have periodically escalated into violence.
IRAN
1,431,416 confirmed cases (+6820)
58,110 reported fatalities (+72)
Iranian authorities say they’ve released the crew of a South Korean-flagged tanker their naval forces seized in the Persian Gulf last month. The Iranians say they detained the vessel over concerns about “pollution,” but that’s barely even trying as fake excuses go, and the Iranians also have clearly tied the crew’s fate to the fate of several billion dollars in Iranian money that’s been frozen by South Korean banks. The South Korean Foreign Ministry characterized the crew’s release as “an important first step to restore trust between the two countries” and said that “they will work to resolve the issue of frozen Iranian assets in South Korean banks.”
Meanwhile, the International Atomic Energy Agency says the Iranians have installed additional advanced centrifuges in their underground uranium enrichment facility at Natanz. This represents a further violation of their commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal, which means it will be that much harder for the Biden administration to restore that accord. Assuming, that is, it actually intends to restore it. I don’t want to be the “it’s been two weeks and they’ve done nothing” guy, but it’s been two weeks and they’ve done nothing to indicate they really want to revive the nuclear deal, despite Joe Biden’s campaign rhetoric. Two weeks isn’t much time, unless it turns into a month, two months, etc., all while Tehran is likely facing a major political shift in June’s presidential election.
ASIA
AZERBAIJAN
230,455 confirmed cases (+159)
3141 reported fatalities (+5)
The joint Russian-Turkish observation center opened Tuesday outside the Azerbaijani village of Giyameddinli, very close to the Nagorno-Karabakh region. While the center’s stated purpose is coordinating reconnaissance drones to monitor November’s Karabakh ceasefire agreement, its operations are opaque and there is little practical reason for its existence. Russian peacekeepers are monitoring the ceasefire on the ground in Karabakh and the Russian military is more than capable of doing its own reconnaissance without Turkey’s help. As Eurasianet’s Joshua Kucera writes, the real purpose behind the center is geopolitical:
The original ceasefire statement – signed by Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan – did not stipulate the creation of this center, or for that matter any role for Turkey at all. In that agreement, the Russian peacekeeping force has the sole responsibility for monitoring compliance. But following the signing of that deal, Russia and Turkey negotiated bilaterally to set up this center, signing an agreement on December 1. The structure itself was constructed by Azerbaijan.
The diplomacy that led to the agreement was opaque but it’s obvious that of all the interested parties, Azerbaijan and Turkey were by far the most desirous of the center, with Russia not nearly as enthusiastic and Armenia even less so.
It seems increasingly clear that the November ceasefire deal represented Moscow putting its foot down and reasserting its influence in the southern Caucasus, shutting out Turkey despite the substantial role Turkish assistance had played in supporting the Azerbaijani war effort. This center is superfluous to maintaining the ceasefire but represents a mostly face saving gesture toward Turkey and a concession to Azerbaijan, which won the war but still suspects that the Russians are biased in Armenia’s favor.
AFGHANISTAN
55,174 confirmed cases (+53)
2406 reported fatalities (+1)
Multiple bombings across Afghanistan on Tuesday left at least three people dead in total. One magnetic bomb attack in Kabul killed two civilians while a bombing in the city of Jalalabad killed on Afghan soldier. Two other magnetic bomb incidents in Kabul and another bombing in Parwan province caused only injuries at last check. The Taliban denied involvement in the three Kabul bombings, but these magnetic devices have become the group’s go-to weapon for carrying out targeted attacks in heavily populated areas.
MYANMAR
140,354 confirmed cases (+0)
3138 reported fatalities (+0)
There’s little new of substance to report regarding Myanmar’s military coup. Aung San Suu Kyi, one of a number of senior figures in the previously ruling National League for Democracy party who were arrested by the Tatmadaw on Monday, is in “good health” according to an unverified Facebook post purportedly from another NLD official, but there’s been no demonstration of that from the junta. There have been internal calls for civil disobedience and demands for the Tatmadaw to restore the NLD-led government, but these seem relatively muted so far. An array of ethnic paramilitary/separatist groups condemned the coup and it’s likely that any semblance of a “peace process” between these rebels and the Myanmar government is kaput, though in most cases that “peace process” was mostly hypothetical anyway. None of this is nearly enough to force the Tatmadaw to stand down.
That leaves the international community, whose leverage to effect any change here remains as minimal as it was yesterday. Amid calls from various quarters for the West to Do Something, Joe Biden threatened sanctions against the junta and/or its individual members on Tuesday, and his government formally designated Monday’s events as a coup. That’s an important designation since it triggers an immediate review of US aid to Myanmar with cuts likely to follow, but it’s not that important because the bottom line is the US doesn’t provide that much aid to Myanmar in the first place. Myanmar’s primary foreign backer is China, and the Chinese government has apparently decided that what happened on Monday was “a major cabinet reshuffle,” not a coup. As euphemisms go, I guess that’s relatively creative.
China, along with Russia, also blocked a United Nations Security Council statement condemning the coup. In addition to those two permanent council members, India and Vietnam also expressed concerns about harshly criticizing the junta, and herein lies the real rub. If other Asian countries were to follow the US lead and sanction the junta it could have an impact—though even then it probably wouldn’t be enough to force the Tatmadaw to reverse course. But it’s unlikely they will, either because the coup doesn’t really affect their interests or because they don’t want Myanmar to become even more deeply enthralled to Beijing. So the chances of a coordinated international response here are pretty minimal.
AFRICA
ETHIOPIA
138,861 confirmed cases (+477)
2116 reported fatalities (+13)
The UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs says that at least 30 Ethiopian and Afar regional police officers were killed last week in a clash with members of the Somali Issa militia near an Afar village called Adyatu. Casualties among the Issa fighters are unknown. The Issa control a few pockets of territory in Afar province and have for some time been agitating for those regions to be transferred to the administrative control of Ethiopia’s Somali region. The Afar and Somali regional governments have supposedly settled the issue by designating those areas as “special” regions within Afar, but the tribal forces clearly aren’t satisfied with that arrangement.
In neighboring Tigray, meanwhile, a group of three opposition political parties issued a statement on Tuesday claiming that 50,000 civilians have been killed in the region since the Ethiopian government began waging its war there almost three months ago. They offered no hard evidence to support that estimate, but at this point the silence from the Ethiopian government on the subject of Tigrayan civilian casualties is deafening, as is the unwillingness of Ethiopian authorities to fully restore regional communications and/or to open Tigray up fully to journalists and aid organizations. The ongoing obstruction of humanitarian aid is fueling charges that the Ethiopian government is trying to starve the Tigrayan population into submission, which needless to say violates international law, not to mention basic morality.
SOMALIA
4784 confirmed cases (+0)
130 reported fatalities (+0)
The Somali government is about to enter a full-blown political crisis and there does not appear to be any immediate remedy for it. A twice-delayed parliamentary election remains in limbo, the national legislature’s mandate having expired in December. The mandate of President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, popularly known as “Farmaajo,” is due to expire on February 8, but since there’s no legitimate parliament in place it’s impossible to hold the indirect election that would either renew that mandate or choose a successor. Farmaajo has convened a three day meeting with regional leaders to discuss the situation but the chances of a solution emerging from that summit are slim at best.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
23,043 confirmed cases (+201)
675 reported fatalities (+3)
Having successfully ousted Prime Minister Sylvestre Ilunga and National Assembly Speaker Jeannine Mabunda, the parliamentary bloc loyal to Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi is now moving against another prominent ally of former President Joseph Kabila—Senate President Alexis Thambwe Mwamba. There does appear to be some sort of embezzlement case pending against Mwamba, but it’s likely the main motivation in ousting Mwamba will be to further weaken Kabila’s influence in parliament while further strengthening Tshisekedi’s. The two have gone from tenuous allies to rivals, though characterizing them as “rivals” understates the speed and ease with which Tshisekedi has been able to consolidate power over the past several weeks at his predecessor’s expense.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
3,884,730 confirmed cases (+16,643)
74,158 reported fatalities (+539)
A court in Moscow sentenced Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny on Tuesday to three and a half years in a penal colony for violating terms of his probation on a 2014 corruption case. He’s being credited for time served under house arrest, however, so the actual sentence amounts to two years and eight months. So I guess my first reaction is that I did not realize “penal colony” was still a thing to which one could be sentenced, but I suppose that’s not really the point.
Unsurprisingly, Navalny’s sentence generated two things: a large immediate protest in Moscow in which “hundreds” of people are believed to have been arrested, and a considerable amount of international outrage from the US and several European governments. None of that is likely to secure Navalny’s release, of course, as Vladimir Putin seems to have tired of his whole deal and is hoping that Navalny’s two and a half years in the cooler will have an “out of sight, out of mind” effect on the Russian public. And there’s always the possibility of some sort of tragic prison accident befalling Navalny. Accidents do happen, after all.
SERBIA
398,905 confirmed cases (+1903)
4056 reported fatalities (+18)
In another very unsurprising development, the Serbian government is less than thrilled with the Israeli government recognizing Kosovo on Monday. Of course, every country that recognizes Kosovo is one fewer country that agrees with the Serbian position that Kosovo is not independent. It remains to be seen what impact this will have on Serbian-Israeli relations but it is possible that Belgrade will now have a change of mind with respect to its promise to shift its Israeli embassy to Jerusalem. That’s probably a risk the Israelis are willing to take because the symbolic significance of Kosovo, a majority Muslim nation, opening an embassy in Jerusalem (thereby recognizing Israel’s claim on the city) is far greater than the significance of Serbia doing so.
ITALY
2,570,608 confirmed cases (+9660)
89,344 reported fatalities (+499)
Italian Chamber of Deputies Speaker Roberto Fico, who has been tasked with monitoring negotiations aimed at reassembling Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s previous governing coalition, reported to Italian President Sergio Mattarella on Tuesday that those talks are going nowhere. So it appears Mattarella has decided to pull the plug on Conte’s government altogether and go in a very different direction. He’s reportedly about to ask former European Central Bank boss Mario Draghi to form a new national unity government of “technocrats” that would appeal to all of Italy’s parties for support.
While it’s true that you miss 100 percent of the shots you don’t take, Mattarella’s shot here could very easily backfire on him. The Five Star Movement, the largest party in the Italian parliament, has unofficially rejected the idea of backing a Draghi-led government. Assuming that’s not a bluff, then Draghi will be forced to rely on right-wing support for his confirmation. The centrist Democratic Party and the right wing Forza Italia party of former PM Silvio Berlusconi may support Draghi, but it’s only with the support of the far-right League that Draghi’s government could get close to a majority in both houses of parliament. And with polling indicating that the League would win a snap election—the likely outcome should the Draghi appointment fail—the party has a strong incentive not to participate, which gives it a great deal of leverage in potential coalition talks.
Of course, Five Star’s leaders can presumably read opinion polls too, and the party might have a change of heart if it’s facing a choice between Draghi and losing dozens of seats and most of its power in a new vote.
AMERICAS
EL SALVADOR
55,195 confirmed cases (+0)
1638 reported fatalities (+6)
Two members of the opposition Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front party were shot and killed in San Salvador on Sunday, prompting accusations against President Nayib Bukele and a very public condemnation from the Organization of American States. Five other people were wounded in the shooting and three suspects subsequently arrested, along with two other FMLN members who returned fire. El Salvador will be holding parliamentary and local elections on February 28, raising tensions around what appears to be a politically-motivated incident.
UNITED STATES
27,027,347 confirmed cases (+114,703)
457,856 reported fatalities (+3632)
New Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has spent some of his first few days on the job purging the Pentagon’s various advisory boards. Why, you ask? Well, mostly to root out multiple last-minute Trump administration appointees to those boards. In his last few days on the job, acting Defense Secretary Christopher Miller crammed a bunch of Trump remora to those boards, including Newt Gingrich (lol) and Corey Lewandowski (LOL). Austin has suspended the work of all these advisory committees while this process plays out. Ultimately he’s expected to can “hundreds” of appointees.
Finally, in case you missed it, you’ll want to check out yesterday’s column from Daniel Bessner on America’s new top diplomat:
The calamitous interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, combined with myriad other failures in the post-Soviet world, took the wind out of the sails of both right- and left-wing liberal internationalism. The latter’s fortunes were further sunk when Donald J. Trump, who repeatedly lambasted the US foreign policy establishment during his campaign for the presidency, won the 2016 election. Today, it’s clear to many professional observers that most Americans have little interest in asserting the type of “global leadership” upon which liberal internationalism is premised.
One might have expected that Trump’s election would have encouraged prominent liberal internationalists to reexamine, or at the very least question, their fundamental assumptions about the world. But this is precisely what didn’t happen. In manifold quickie books with titles like The Empty Throne, American establishmentarians argued that in the post-Trump era the United States needed to do little more than reaffirm its commitment to global leadership.
Liberal internationalism is thus a zombie ideology, shorn of any connection to real-world events and intellectually exhausted. Nowhere is this clearer than in a recent conversation that took place at the Hudson Institute last summer between the writer Walter Russell Mead and Antony Blinken, Joe Biden’s longtime foreign policy aide and the recently confirmed secretary of state. In it, Blinken says nothing especially novel, persuasive, or interesting about the future of US foreign policy. It thus looks like we’re going to be in for a long four years in which little will be done by the United States to address the multiple crises—of imperialism, inequality, and climate—facing the world over the next decade and beyond.