World roundup: December 7-8 2024
Stories from Israel-Palestine, South Korea, Ghana, and elsewhere
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THIS WEEKEND IN HISTORY
December 7, 1941: The Japanese military undertakes a coordinated series of attacks on US and British colonial holdings throughout the Pacific region. Of these, certainly the best remembered is the assault on the US naval base at Pearl Harbor, in Hawaii. Over 2400 people were killed in what was intended to be a preemptive strike to ensure that the United States would not interfere with Japanese plans in the Pacific. Of course it had the opposite effect, drawing the United States into World War II. Which, needless to say, did not work out to Japan’s (nor, for that matter, to its European allies’) benefit.
December 7, 1965: During the Second Vatican Council, Pope Paul VI and Ecumenical Patriarch Athenagoras I issue the Catholic–Orthodox Joint Declaration of 1965. The declaration reversed the mutual excommunications that had been issued by Pope Leo IX and Ecumenical Patriarch Michael I Cerularius in the Great East-West Schism of 1054. The Catholic and Orthodox churches are still in schism, of course, but their relationship has improved considerably since the 11th century.
December 8, 1953: US President Dwight Eisenhower delivers his “Atoms for Peace” speech to the United Nations General Assembly. Eisenhower’s speech, and the program it announced, were meant to focus international attention on the peaceful uses of nuclear power, either as a way to ease fears about nuclear weapons or as cover for the massive US nuclear buildup that followed. Or, hey, why not both? And maybe drum up some revenue for US companies along the way? The Atoms for Peace program helped build research reactors in Iran, Israel, and Pakistan. Two of those countries eventually weaponized their nuclear programs, though ironically it’s the one that didn’t that’s become the DC Blob’s obsession.
December 8, 1980: Former member of the Beatles John Lennon is shot and killed outside of his home in New York City by Mark David Chapman.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
With a rapidity I’m not sure even they expected, Syrian insurgents chased Bashar al-Assad out of Damascus on Sunday, ending his 24 year-plus presidency, and the over 50 year rule, of his family just about 11 days after the latest rebel offensive began. It had looked on Friday as though the city of Homs would be the next domino to fall, but some of the northern insurgents apparently proceeded on to the Syrian capital, where they were joined by rebels from southern Syria. They did eventually take Homs fairly peacefully, which is what reportedly prompted Assad to hop on an airplane bound for parts unknown. Russian media later reported his arrival in Moscow (where he’s apparently been granted asylum), after having left orders with Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali to oversee a “peaceful transfer” of power. So far that seems to be what’s happening—indeed, the relative lack of heavy violence that has attended this offensive, partly due to its speed, has been arguably its most positive aspect.
The public response to Assad’s departure in Damascus and several other parts of Syria appeared to be celebratory on Sunday, with the highlight being the ransacking of his presidential palace. Certainly between his style of governance and Syria’s complete economic collapse (partially sanctions-fueled) over the past several years one can understand a certain level of excitement over even the possibility of change. The rebels have released thousands of people from Assad’s prisons, including the notorious Sednaya facility in Damascus, so for them and their families the elation must be enormous. Likewise, many of the millions of Syrians who have fled abroad since 2011 now feel like a window is opening to their return home. That said, the tens of thousands of people who have fled in the face of the insurgents’ advance speak to a level of trepidation about what sort of government might emerge under the leadership of the “reformed” jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Obviously this situation is in a state of extreme flux right now, and while so far conditions in Damascus and other cities taken by the rebels over the past 11 days appear to be mostly stable that doesn’t mean that instability won’t follow. Governmentally it sounds like Jalali is still nominally in charge of managing whatever is left of the Syrian state but he’s working at the pleasure of HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani-er, I mean Ahmed al-Sharaa, as he’s now referring to himself. What comes next very much remains to be seen but we can already start to make a few observations:
The Iranian government is suddenly confronted with a world in which the land linkage between it and Hezbollah has been severed. The Financial Times suggests that Iranian officials ultimately decided Assad wasn’t worth the resources it would have required to save him and maybe that some of them had even written him off as unreliable. I think the latter is probably overstated—though FT even quoted “an insider in Tehran’s government” who claimed that “people within [Assad’s] regime were leaking information about the whereabouts of Iranian commanders” so who knows—but given how quickly and completely the Syrian military stood down I’m not sure the Iranians could have saved Assad even if they’d tried. They appear to have opted instead to get personnel and assets out of Syria and I’ve seen suggestions that they communicated with HTS to try to secure protection for Shiʿa civilians and religious sites though I haven’t seen that confirmed anywhere.
It looks right now like both Iran and Russia have lost a significant regional asset while the Turkish government has gained one. While the Russian military did contribute to Assad’s defense by conducting airstrikes against the rebels over the past several days, like Iran it’s unclear whether it would have been able to react quickly and decisively enough to save Assad under the circumstances—especially given that its resources are largely tied up in Ukraine. The fate of Russia’s military bases in northwestern Syria remains up in the air, though Russian officials have reportedly cut a deal with the rebels to preserve those facilities at least temporarily. It’s possible the Russians were also feeling frustrated with Assad, whose intransigence as Moscow tried in recent years to broker a diplomatic normalization between Syria and Turkey not only made life harder for the Kremlin but also may have enabled the circumstances of his overthrow—one of Ankara’s conditions for normalization likely would have been a negotiated settlement between Assad and the rebels.
The biggest concern for post-Assad Syria right now appears to be the threat of soft partition and thus continued internal conflict. Right on cue, the Turkish-backed “Syrian National Army” seized the previously Kurdish-held city of Manbij in northern Syria on Sunday, after advancing on it for several days. If this is now going to become a war between Turkey’s proxies and the Syrian Democratic Forces (i.e., America’s proxies) then needless to say it’s going to have deleterious effects on any sort of political transition. Likewise a move by another US proxy, the “Syrian Free Army,” to seize control of Palmyra may not be good news for Syrian stability, though it undertook that operation before Assad had fled and it’s unclear what the group’s intentions are now.
Gulf Arab states could play an important role in Syria’s stabilization and recovery if they’re prepared to step in to pay for reconstruction and condition that financial support on the formation of a representative government that protects the rights of the country’s minority communities. So far the rhetoric coming out of those states, particularly Qatar, seems reasonable, but rhetoric and action are of course two different things.
Another area of concern is, apparently, Israel, which has reacted to Assad’s ouster by invading and seizing another chunk of Syrian territory. Israeli forces are now occupying the buffer zone that was established in the 1974 “disengagement agreement” that formally ended Syria’s involvement in the Yom Kippur War—an agreement Israeli leaders now say has been nullified. That buffer zone was meant to protect Israel’s occupation of part of the Golan, itself internationally recognized as Syrian territory. It’s unclear how deep into Syria Israeli officials are intending to push but they have suggested a willingness to seize, or carry out airstrikes against, arms depots that might otherwise fall into insurgent hands.
Those Israeli airstrikes, and there have been several of them over the past couple of days, may be part of a concerted effort to destroy what remains of Syria’s chemical weapons program. US officials are telling reporters that they’re involved in a multinational effort to destroy or at least “secure” Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles. The rebels have insisted that they have no interest in those munitions and are prepared to secure Syrian military facilities and “coordinate with the international community” on monitoring the facilities and their contents.
The US military’s Central Command claimed on Sunday that it has conducted airstrikes against more than 75 Syrian targets linked to Islamic State in an effort to prevent that group from taking “advantage” of the political upheaval. It is assessing the results of those strikes. As ever, it’s starting from the assumption that its bombs caused no civilian casualties.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
While I wouldn’t recommend anyone holding their breath, we should note that Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani told an audience at the Doha Forum on Sunday that he sees new “momentum” behind the effort to secure a ceasefire in Gaza. At least some of that momentum is allegedly coming from the future Trump administration, which appears to want Gaza off of its plate by the time Donald Trump takes office in January. Qatari officials were frustrated enough with this process (or at least with how the process was making them look) to suspend their involvement a month ago, so presumably the PM does see some actual sign of progress or else he wouldn’t have resumed Doha’s mediating role.
That said, I still wouldn’t make much of this except inasmuch as AFP, citing “sources within Palestinian militant groups in Gaza,” reported on Sunday that Hamas has ordered an accounting of the hostages still left in the territory. It would need to know which hostages are still alive and where they’re being held in advance of an actual ceasefire/hostage release deal. So maybe there is something meaningful happening. In the meantime, of course, the Israeli military (IDF) continues to kill scores of people in the territory—at least 34 on Saturday and at least 16 on Sunday.
ASIA
PAKISTAN
Pakistani authorities announced on Saturday that unknown gunmen had attacked a security checkpoint in northern Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, killing at least six soldiers and wounding another seven. Normally attacks like these in that province indicate Pakistani Taliban (TTP) involvement, but this incident took place in the troubled Kurram district that has seen heightened levels of inter-communal violence in recent months. So there may be other possible culprits. The Pakistani military also said that its forces had killed 22 TTP militants in operations elsewhere in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on Friday into Saturday.
SOUTH KOREA
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol survived Saturday’s impeachment vote but may not be long for his office anyway. I say “impeachment vote” but in reality it never actually happened, as nearly all of the 108 legislators from Yoon’s People Power Party walked out of parliament ahead of time. Given that at least 200 legislators would have had to vote in favor of impeachment for the motion to pass and that the PPP walkout left the chamber with fewer than 200 legislators in total there was not much point to proceeding. So it seemed like Yoon’s presidency had been preserved.
However, PPP leader Han Dong-hoon claimed on Sunday that Yoon had “effectively” promised to resign. When this is supposed to happen or whether Yoon had actually made such a promise (that “effectively” opens a pretty gaping hole in Han’s comment) remains to be seen. It is admittedly difficult to imagine Yoon continuing on, given the popular outrage that his attempted self-coup has generated. But Han’s statements only created more uncertainty about what is actually going on in the upper echelons of South Korea’s government. In addition to this strange resignation claim—one that Yoon hasn’t confirmed—Han also asserted that Yoon “will no longer be involved in state affairs” until he resigns. There’s no constitutional basis for the South Korean president to just recuse themself from being president, and opposition parties are now accusing Han of attempting his own self-coup, either to make himself the de facto head of state or to better position himself to win a snap election if/when Yoon eventually does step down.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The South Belt Emergency Response Room, a civil defense organization active in Khartoum, is reporting that shelling hit a fuel station in the capital on Sunday and killed at least 28 people while wounding another 37. There’s no indication as to responsibility but the site is apparently in a part of the city under Rapid Support Forces control, so on that basis it seems likely the Sudanese military was to blame.
BURKINA FASO
Burkina Faso’s ruling junta on Saturday appointed its former communications minister and spokesperson, Jean Emmanuel Ouédraogo, as its new prime minister. He replaces Apollinaire Joachim Kyélem de Tambèla, whom the junta canned on Friday for reasons that remain unclear.
GHANA
Former Ghanaian President John Mahama is now Ghanaian President-elect John Mahama, after he defeated Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia in Saturday’s election. The outcome was not unexpected—Ghana is suffering from many of the same economic headwinds that have taken down incumbent parties in several other countries this year, and on top of that incumbent President Nana Akufo-Addo’s two terms in office saw Ghana default on its debt in 2022 and enter into a potentially debilitating International Monetary Fund bailout. Ghana is now out of default as of October, but IMF austerity tends to exact political consequences. Mahama has promised to “renegotiate” the IMF deal. He’s also apparently a fan of a harsh anti-LGBTQ+ bill the Ghanaian parliament passed earlier this year, so that may be a cause for concern.
NIGER
AFP is reporting that gunmen attacked a commercial convoy in southwestern Niger’s Tillabéri region on Thursday evening, killing at least 21 people (all civilians). The convoy was apparently leaving a weekly market in the city of Téra, which is one of the most active parts of Niger in terms of jihadist militant activity.
EUROPE
UKRAINE
US President-elect Donald Trump interjected himself into the Ukraine war on Sunday with a social media demand for “an immediate ceasefire and negotiations.” This unsurprisingly drew reactions from both Kyiv and Moscow. The former, in the person of President Volodymyr Zelensky, seemed particularly intent on clarifying that Trump’s claim that Ukraine has “ridiculously lost” around 400,000 soldiers referred to its overall casualties and that it’s “only” seen some 43,000 soldiers killed (alongside some 370,000 wounded). So I guess they’ve got that going for them? Ukraine’s casualty figure is high enough that Zelensky generally doesn’t bring it up so it’s a bit rich that he cited it today to try to downplay its significance. Zelensky also stressed his desire for a peace deal, but only if it comes with “guarantees.” The Russian government, via Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, simply expressed openness to Trump’s call and insisted that Ukraine is the party “that refused and continues to refuse negotiations.”
Meanwhile, the Biden administration announced a whopping $988 million in new military assistance for Ukraine on Saturday, just after releasing a $725 million tranche on Monday. This latest package comes out of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which instead of pulling weapons out of existing US stockpiles purchases new arms from manufacturers on Ukraine’s behalf. This is intended to provide longer-term support for the Ukrainian military. The administration still has a few billion dollars in its Ukraine aid budget and seems intent on spending all of it before Trump takes office.
FRANCE
Paris’s iconic Notre Dame cathedral reopened on Saturday, ending the reconstruction process that began when it was largely destroyed in a 2019 fire:
I don’t really have a story to go along with this video, but I was looking for a bit of news that didn’t involve war, pestilence, elections, etc. and this seemed like a nice change of pace.
AMERICAS
COLOMBIA
A motorcycle bomb killed at least one person (the bomber) and wounded another 14 people at a police checkpoint in Colombia’s Valle del Cauca department on Saturday. There doesn’t seem to be any indication as to culpability, though the AP did mention an ex-Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) group called “Jaime Martínez” as being active in the Jamundí municipal area where the bombing took place.
UNITED STATES
Finally, in the wake of Joe Biden’s brief visit to Angola Foreign Policy’s Howard French highlights one of the fundamental flaws underpinning US policy toward Africa:
U.S. politicians and analysts seem to be ignoring the reality, clear as day in a recent New York Times interview with Angolan President João Lourenço, that African leaders are turned off by the idea that outsiders seek to engage with them for reasons of geopolitical and ideological competition. The continent has experienced this before, during the long and dark years of the Cold War, when African countries, including Angola, became collateral damage in the contests among the United States, the Soviet Union, and China.
Africa’s aversion to being caught up in someone else’s game—namely, a global rivalry between Washington and Beijing—is part of a much broader new geopolitical reality. Amid growing multipolarity, few countries see any attraction in clearly aligning with big powers. This is true in Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Latin America.
This points anew to the need—clear for years but seldom heeded—for Washington to overhaul its diplomatic language toward Africa. The United States needs to stop talking about China and demonstrate its interest by showing up. Showing up means engaging much more frequently at a high political level. Showing up means engaging much more deeply economically. Showcase projects are fine, but it would be more impressive for Washington to devise ways to get U.S. companies to invest much more in Africa and diversify away from the longtime standard play of oil and mineral extraction on the continent.
That Biden’s trip was both the first and last African visit of his presidency says about all that needs to be said regarding how much of a priority the continent really is for the US government. Actions speak louder than words and no amount of rhetoric can overcome the statement that makes. And the fact that Biden’s main purpose in going was to champion a rail project whose primary selling point is that it will facilitate the shipment of southern African minerals to market only reinforces French’s point.
1:35 this sort of dry humor in delivery and selection of historical events is part of Derek’s secret sauce. It’s almost ineffable.