World roundup: December 3 2024
Stories from Syria, Georgia, France, and elsewhere
You’re reading the web version of Foreign Exchanges. If you’d like to get it delivered straight to your inbox, sign up today:
TODAY IN HISTORY
December 3, 1971: The Pakistani military undertakes preemptive airstrikes against several Indian military installations, beginning the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971, itself the final phase of the Bangladesh Liberation War. India was preparing to enter that war on Bangladesh’s side, so these strikes were preemptive in the way that word is normally understood. The war, to put it mildly, was a complete disaster for the Pakistanis, who were forced to surrender a scant 13 days later and had to give up their claims on “East Pakistan” (Bangladesh) while suffering around a third of their military killed, wounded, or captured. In one of Henry Kissinger’s more notorious acts, the Nixon administration opted to support Pakistan despite evidence of its armed forces having committing major atrocities against Bangladeshi civilians.
December 3, 1984: A Union Carbide pesticide plant in Bhopal, India, spews toxic methyl isocyanate gas overnight, resulting in the deaths of between 3800 and 16,000 people and causing injury to at least 558,000 more. Union Carbide maintains that the leak was caused by deliberate sabotage, though Indian courts subsequently found several officials at the plant guilty of negligence. The “Bhopal Disaster” remains one of the worst industrial catastrophes in history and its adverse effects are still being felt by people in that region to the present day.
INTERNATIONAL
Talks on a potential United Nations treaty limiting plastic pollution collapsed last week amid a debate over limiting plastic production or at least the use of particular chemicals or other products that are thought to be especially harmful to health and/or the environment. Opposition from major oil producing states, who are counting on plastics production to sustain global demand for their oil as humanity continues to shift toward renewable energy, was apparently the main cause for the breakdown. This failure continues a fairly ignominious run for UN global conferences—last month’s COP16 biodiversity summit in Colombia ended without a hoped-for deal to finance conservation, and the COP29 climate change summit in Azerbaijan ended with an agreement on financing that was described as an “insult” to developing nations and with no statement about the need to transition away from fossil fuels.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The Israeli military (IDF) continues to issue forced evacuation orders for civilians in Gaza, turning on Tuesday to parts of the southern city of Khan Younis. This is as it continues to pulverize parts of northern Gaza. It is also reportedly expanding its footprint along the “Netzarim Corridor,” building from what had previously been a single road into what The New York Times characterized as “an 18-square-mile block of territory” based on information from the IDF as well as satellite and video imagery. This expansion has involved the demolition of some 600 buildings and makes it pretty clear that, assurances to the contrary notwithstanding, the IDF is planning for an extended Gaza occupation.
Elsewhere, the World Central Kitchen organization suspended its Gaza operations after the IDF struck one of its vehicles on Saturday and killed five people. Israeli officials claimed that one of the people in the vehicle was a Hamas member who had participated in the October 7 2023 attacks and accused WCK of having not coordinated the vehicle’s activity with Israeli forces. Another Israeli strike killed a Save the Children aid worker in Khan Younis over the weekend, prompting another show of faux-“outrage” from the Biden administration. The IDF killed at least three people in an airstrike on Tuesday near the West Bank city of Tubas. It’s claiming that all three were Hamas personnel. And there are reports that Hamas and the Palestinian Authority’s ruling Fatah party have agreed, following negotiations in Cairo, on the formation of a committee to run Gaza in a “day after” scenario. I hesitate to place too much stock in this because it’s unlikely that the Israeli government will accept even a “depoliticized” Gazan administration that Hamas has had a role in forming.
LEBANON
The Israeli and Lebanese governments both assured the Biden administration on Monday that they are fully committed to the ceasefire it brokered last week. Also on Monday, Hezbollah rocket fire into northern Israel prompted the IDF to bombard “dozens” of Lebanese targets in response and has Israeli officials talking about striking “deeper” into Lebanon (meaning in other words the intentional targeting of the Lebanese military and state in addition to Hezbollah) if the ceasefire collapses. You might forgive Hezbollah for having assumed the ceasefire had already collapsed, given that scarcely a day has gone by since the Israeli government agreed to cease firing that its military has not bombed some part of Lebanon. That includes Tuesday, when an IDF strike killed at least one person in southern Lebanon, identified by Lebanese media as a “shepherd.”
As Drop Site’s Sharif Abdel Kouddous points out, these repeated Israeli violations of the ceasefire are technically not violations at all, since an Israeli right to strike Hezbollah in “self defense” was baked into the agreement. I put self defense in quotes because that’s a right only afforded to the Israeli government, not to the Lebanese government let alone Hezbollah. Israeli officials are, of course, allowed to define “self defense” however they choose. So there’s really no reason to expect the IDF to cease firing (or even reduce the intensity of its firing) at all.
SYRIA
The situation in Syria appears to have stabilized somewhat, though by no means entirely, since last week’s rebel offensive resulted in the shocking seizure of Aleppo city as well as parts of Idlib and Hama provinces. As was the case on Sunday, the rebels are still advancing on the city of Hama and appear to be meeting much more robust opposition from a Syrian military that has been able to compose itself with the assistance of Russian airpower. Rebel forces, chiefly from the jihadist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, did reportedly seize four towns in Hama province on Tuesday and now are reportedly just a few miles outside Hama city. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights is reporting a death toll of 602, including 104 civilians, since this offensive began on Wednesday, but I would take that with a grain of salt given the challenging media environment and the rapid pace of events. Tens of thousands of people have been displaced and there are reports of people still in Aleppo who seem like they would rather not be there with HTS in charge.
According to Reuters, “at least 300” Iraqi militia fighters crossed into Syria on Monday to lend support to Bashar al-Assad’s government, though when and how they might impact the situation around Hama remains to be seen. Hezbollah notably has not committed any forces to the fight, reinforcing speculation that its conflict with Israel has left it unable and/or unwilling to intervene in this situation. On that subject, an IDF airstrike outside Damascus reportedly killed Hezbollah’s chief liaison with the Syrian military on Tuesday.
As for Turkey, it remains an open question how much it, or its “Syrian National Army” proxy coalition, has been involved in the events of the past several days. Ankara has much to gain if the rebels are able to hold on to what they’ve conquered or add to it. It could potentially return Syrian refugees to an enlarged rebel pocket and see Syrian Kurdish forces driven away from the border. On the other hand, a rebel collapse would likely generate a new wave of refugees and could wind up strengthening the Kurdish position in northern Syria. That may be why Turkey reportedly pressed HTS and company to delay this operation for several weeks and, conversely, why the rebels felt that they needed to launch some sort of decisive attack before the Turkish government potentially sold them out in a normalization deal with Damascus.
The US military detachment in Syria has also reportedly stayed out of the fray even amid clashes between the rebels and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces group, though it did strike several militia targets in eastern Syria on Tuesday. The SDF, by the by, appears to be taking advantage of the situation by attacking government-held areas in eastern Syria. The Biden administration continues to express publicly a degree of apprehension about these events, particularly inasmuch as the prime mover on the rebel side is a designated terrorist group (HTS). That public apprehension may actually mirror its private feelings—another Reuters scoop on Monday suggested that the administration has been in dialogue with UAE officials about offering Assad relief from US sanctions if he were willing to break ties with Iran and Hezbollah. It’s unclear how Assad might have responded to such an offer but it’s probably irrelevant. If Assad was entertaining such a break a week ago I highly doubt he’d feel comfortable doing so now.
ASIA
GEORGIA
Protesters and police have clashed on the streets of Tbilisi for five nights in a row, after Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced on Thursday that he was “suspending” the country’s European Union accession talks until at least 2028. Kobakhidze accused EU politicians of committing “blackmail and manipulation” over their reactions to October’s still-disputed Georgian parliamentary election. The EU has already frozen the accession process over alleged “democratic backsliding” under the ruling Georgian Dream party.
Speaking of democratic backsliding, Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili—a Georgian Dream opponent and EU supporter—declared over the weekend that she’s simply not going to leave office when her term ends later this month, calling the parliament that would be electing her successor “illegitimate” due to claimed election rigging. And the Georgian government’s ombudsman, Levan Ioseliani, alleged on Tuesday that police have been “torturing” protesters, citing the “serious injuries” that many of them appear to have suffered while in custody.
BANGLADESH
The Bangladeshi government summoned India’s ambassador in Dhaka on Tuesday to protest a mob attack on one of its Indian consulates. A group of protesters attempted to storm the consulate in the city of Agartala, which is close to the Bangladeshi border, on Monday. They were acting on claims that Bangladesh’s interim government has been mistreating the country’s Hindu community. The incident takes place amid frayed relations between the two countries, partly related to the ouster of former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August and the current government’s demand that India extradite her back to Dhaka.
SOUTH KOREA
It’s been an eventful few hours in Seoul, as South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol attempted late Tuesday to pull of a self-coup before backing down in the face of concerted public opposition. Yoon reached back into the heady days of the original Cold War for his inspiration, declaring martial law in a televised address that claimed the need to “defend the free Republic of Korea from the threats of North Korean communist forces and to eradicate the shameless pro-North Korean anti-state forces that are plundering the freedom and happiness of our people and to protect the free constitutional order.” The South Korean military quickly moved into action, ordering a blanket prohibition on political activity and blocking the parliament building in an effort to prevent the legislature from convening. But convene it did—well, 190 of its 300 members convened anyway—and voted unanimously to reject Yoon’s decree while protesters filled the streets of Seoul to oppose the martial law declaration. To their credit, I suppose, South Korean security forces and eventually Yoon himself complied with the parliamentary vote.

As president, Yoon is legally allowed to declare martial law in the case of a genuine national emergency. South Korea doesn’t have one of those, though. What it does have is a heavily opposition-controlled parliament and a president who’s under investigation on corruption charges and underwater with the public. If he was hoping to stabilize his presidency then he may be heading for disappointment—the ramifications of this stunt are surely going to be severe and may ultimately see him impeached or forced to resign. Yoon’s record as far as things like “protecting civil rights” and “maintaining democratic norms” was already checkered at best and Tuesday’s events certainly won’t quiet his critics on that front.
AFRICA
SUDAN
Aid workers are accusing the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group of shelling the Zamzam displaced persons camp in Sudan’s North Darfur state, killing at least six people from Sunday into Monday. The RSF insists it did not attack the camp, but it’s not as though there’s a different militant group currently besieging that facility along with the nearby city of Al-Fashir, so that denial doesn’t seem terribly plausible. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification organization has previously determined that parts of Zamzam are in a state of famine. The camp is packed with people displaced by the RSF’s conquests across the Darfur region.
BENIN
Unspecified gunmen killed at least three soldiers assigned to guard an oil pipeline in northern Benin on Monday. The attack took place close to the border with Niger and it seems reasonable to assume that the attackers were jihadists of some variety.
SOMALIA
The government of Somalia’s Jubaland region held an election last Monday without the blessing of the federal Somali government. By Thursday, federal authorities had issued an arrest warrant for Jubaland President Ahmed Mohamed Islam (who won reelection) and the Jubaland government declared that it was suspending all ties with Mogadishu. Jubaland has also issued its own arrest warrant for Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Neither one of those warrants is likely to be exercised, but for a Somali government that is already managing separatist tendencies in the Somaliland and Puntland regions this is probably not a welcome development.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
There have been reports of new fighting between the Congolese military and the M23 rebel group overnight and into Tuesday, calling into question the status of the ceasefire those parties are supposed to be honoring. Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame—M23’s patron—are supposed to meet to discuss this conflict on December 15, according to the Angolan government (which has been acting as mediator). If the ceasefire collapses it’s unclear whether that meeting would still take place.
NAMIBIA
Election officials in Namibia have declared Vice President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah the winner of last week’s presidential election. She will assume office in March and become the first woman to serve as Namibia’s president. Her election keeps the SWAPO party in power, as it has been consistently in the 34 years since the country gained independence from South Africa.
EUROPE
UKRAINE
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky broached the idea of ceding (at least temporarily) Ukrainian territory to Russia last week, laying out a negotiating position for future peace talks. However, Zelensky’s formula, offered in an interview with Sky News, is unlikely to gain much purchase in Moscow. For one thing, it’s dependent on Ukraine’s entry into NATO—limited initially, in Zelensky’s thinking, to the territory that is now under Ukrainian government control. For another thing, that NATO entry would theoretically extend to all the territory within Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders, signifying that Kyiv would not be surrendering its claim on areas now under Russian control. Zelensky argued that his plan could end the “hot phase” of the war and that Ukraine would work to regain the rest of its territory down the line, “diplomatically.” Leaving aside the question of whether he really means that, Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to demand Ukrainian neutrality in addition to recognition of Russia’s “annexation” of Ukrainian territory.
There’s another complication in that NATO still shows no inclination toward admitting Ukraine and Donald Trump’s return to the White House is only going to make that outcome less likely. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte refused to make any commitments about Ukrainian accession on Tuesday, ahead of a meeting of the alliance’s foreign ministers, and the Biden administration is so committed to Ukraine’s well being that it’s reportedly urging Kyiv to lower its military conscription age to 18 and thereby kill off an even wider generational swathe of the Ukrainian population. This does not seem like something it would be advising if it were open to the idea of trying to end the war via Ukrainian NATO membership.
ROMANIA
The Romanian Constitutional Court on Monday confirmed the results of the first round of the country’s presidential election last month. That vote saw far-right independent Călin Georgescu surprising just about everyone to finish in first place, prompting the court to order a recount. He’ll be joined in Sunday’s runoff by conservative candidate Elena Lasconi, who barely edged out Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu for second place once all the votes were counted. Polling of the runoff matchup seems to favor Georgescu. If he does win he’ll have to deal with what looks like a fairly unfriendly legislature, as the center-left Social Democratic Party won Sunday’s parliamentary election. The far right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians, whose politics seem to align with Georgescu’s, did finish in second place but lacks any clear coalition partners.
FRANCE
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government is probably going to lose a parliamentary no-confidence vote on Wednesday, as both the leftist New Popular Front coalition and the far right National Rally party appear intent on ousting it. This situation developed rapidly after Barnier on Monday employed Article 49.3 of the French constitution in order to adopt his proposed budget—an austerity-heavy plan featuring some €60 billion in tax hikes and €40 billion in spending cuts—without a parliamentary vote. Article 49.3 allows the government to do this, provided that parliament does not subsequently pass a no confidence motion. The last French government to lose a no confidence motion was led by Georges Pompidou in 1962, so this is not exactly well-trod territory.
Assuming he does lose the vote, Barnier will likely remain on as a caretaker PM while French President Emmanuel Macron considers his options. But the austerity budget would be dead. Barnier will have the authority to roll current spending and taxation levels over into next year in the absence of a new budget.
AMERICAS
UNITED STATES
Finally, The Nation’s Carol Schaeffer recounts the failure of the aforementioned COP29 summit:
The deal created a New Collective Quantified Goal or NCQG, UN-speak for a fixed amount that wealthy nations would pay to poorer ones. The bill for the Global North will come to $300 billion per year by 2035. This is a fraction of the $1.3 trillion in annual grants that developing countries were pushing to begin immediately. It is only a marginal increase from the $250 billion offered in an earlier version of the agreement, released the final scheduled day of the summit. The climate-financing agreement was reached in the early hours of Sunday morning, well after the scheduled end on Friday of the two-week climate summit held in Baku. The deal marked an end to a climate summit marred by chaos and bitterness and which one negotiator called the “worst COP in recent memory.”
Experts estimate that $1.3 trillion a year is what it would cost to avoid surpassing the planet’s 1.5-degree Celsius temperature threshold that was set in the 2015 Paris climate agreements. This level of funding is what’s needed to invest in energy transitions in addition to what is already being spent.
Delegates from across the Global South slammed the final deal. The African Group of Negotiators described the final pledge as “too little, too late.” A delegate from India, Chandni Raina, dismissed the amount as a “paltry sum” and the document as “little more than an optical illusion” designed to appease developing nations but which in reality deflects responsibility away from historical polluters. Developing nations from Asia, the South Pacific, Africa, and South America all echoed these remarks.
“The outcome of COP29 is nothing short of heartbreaking,” said Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez, Panama’s climate envoy. “It feels as if we have signed away the 1.5-degree target—our only real chance to safeguard humanity’s future.”