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THESE DAYS IN HISTORY
December 2, 1805: At the Battle of Austerlitz, Napoleon wins arguably his greatest victory against a larger joint Russian-Austrian army. The Allies suffered 36,000 dead/wounded/captured compared with only 9000 for the French. The French victory was so complete that not only did it end the War of the Third Coalition, it allowed Napoleon to create the Confederation of the Rhine among the German states that had become French clients. The following year, because of the new confederation, Emperor Francis II had to dissolve the Holy Roman Empire, which had been in existence continuously since 962 and traced its origins back to Charlemagne’s coronation as “emperor of the Romans” in 800.
December 2, 1942: Enrico Fermi and his team create the first self-sustaining nuclear reaction at “Chicago Pile-1,” a rudimentary reactor built under the campus of the University of Chicago. This was the first milestone achievement for the Manhattan Project in its race to build a nuclear bomb before Nazi Germany.
December 2, 1971: Six small Persian Gulf emirates—Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, Fujairah, Sharjah, and Umm al-Quwain—cease to be UK protectorates and collectively form the United Arab Emirates. A seventh emirate, Ras al-Khaimah, held out at first but agreed to come on board the following February. Annually commemorated as UAE National Day.
December 3, 1971: The Pakistani military undertakes preemptive airstrikes against several Indian military installations, beginning the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971, itself the final phase of the Bangladesh Liberation War. India was preparing to enter the war on Bangladesh’s side anyway, so these strikes were preemptive in the true meaning of the term. The war, to put it mildly, was a complete disaster for the Pakistanis, who were forced to surrender a scant 13 days later and had to give up their claims on “East Pakistan” (Bangladesh) while suffering around a third of their military killed, wounded, or captured.
December 3, 1984: A Union Carbide pesticide plant in Bhopal, India, spews toxic methyl isocyanate gas overnight, resulting in the deaths of between 3800 and 16,000 people and causing injury to at least 558,000 more. Union Carbide maintains that the leak was caused by deliberate sabotage, though Indian courts subsequently found several officials at the plant guilty of negligence. The “Bhopal Disaster” remains one of the worst industrial catastrophes in history and its adverse effects are still being felt by people in that region to the present day.
INTERNATIONAL
Worldometer’s coronavirus figures for December 3:
65,516,333 confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide (18,641,423 active, +678,713 since yesterday)
1,511,101 reported fatalities (+12,679 since yesterday)
In today’s global news:
The OPEC+ group (OPEC members “plus” a group of large non-OPEC oil producers led by Russia) met on Thursday and agreed to put a damper on their plans to ratchet global oil production back up in the new year. The gang had been operating under a plan it hatched in April, which cut members’ collective production by 7.7 million barrels per day. Under that plan they were due to add back 1.9 million bpd as of January 1, but this new accord calls for a restoration of only 500,000 bpd instead, a concession to ongoing low demand due to the pandemic. Three countries remain exempt from the caps—Iran, Libya, and Venezuela. With Libya’s peace process making progress and a new US administration revisiting sanctions on Iran and possibly Venezuela, those exemptions could wind up being a bigger deal in 2021 than they have been.
Ghent University’s Thijs Van de Graaf contends that “big oil” may never fully recover from the pandemic, though his argument depends to some extent on the continued worldwide adoption of tougher measures to combat climate change. I’ll believe it when I see it.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
8147 confirmed coronavirus cases (+88)
432 reported fatalities (+6)
According to Turkey’s defense ministry, one of its soldiers was killed in clashes with the Kurdish YPG militia in Syria’s Afrin region on Thursday. Further details, like any YPG casualties, are unknown.
YEMEN
2239 confirmed cases (+22)
624 reported fatalities (+3)
The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said Friday morning that it had shot down another Houthi drone headed toward Saudi Arabia.
TURKEY
733,261 confirmed cases (+32,381)
14,316 reported fatalities (+187)
You’ve probably already seen reports that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo used what will hopefully be his last NATO foreign ministers’ meeting on Tuesday to vent some frustrations about Turkey, which reportedly led to a back-and-forth between Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and various other NATO FMs who are also irritated with Turkey these days. I don’t really have anything to add, since as reported this story is all gossip, so consider this an “in case you missed it” segment.

Al-Monitor’s Mustafa Sönmez reports on Turkey’s growing economic dependence on Qatari investment:
Although Qatar’s territory and population amount to only 1.5% and 3.5% of those of Turkey, respectively, the emirate boasts more than $80,000 in gross domestic product per capita, compared to only about $9,000 in Turkey. Typically, Turkey posts a current account deficit of $25 billion to $30 billion a year, while gas- and oil-rich Qatar enjoys a current account surplus of up to $25 billion, which allows it to invest copiously abroad, mainly through the Qatar Investment Authority.
The foreign direct investment (FDI) stock in Turkey stands at about $150 billion as of last year, with the bulk — $101 billion — belonging to European investors, according to Central Bank data. The Netherlands is the leader with about $33 billion, followed by Qatar with some $22 billion.
As Sönmez points out, those Dutch investments are decades old, while most of Qatar’s interest in Turkey has arisen over the past five years and is likely to keep increasing. Given how much Turkey’s economy has been struggling, that Qatari investment has been something of a lifeline for Ankara. There are some questions as to how Qatari investment in Turkey spiked from around $6 billion in 2018 to $22 billion in 2019, and Sönmez speculates it may have something to do with the soaring valuation of the Qatari-owned QNB Finansbank. Emergency Qatari support for the ailing Turkish central bank is also undoubtedly part of the increase.
IRAQ
558,767 confirmed cases (+2039)
12,361 reported fatalities (+21)
At his Musings on Iraq blog, Joel Wing reports that the number of Islamic State attacks in Iraq seems to have stabilized at a level considerably higher than this summer’s low point. It appears IS carried out 86 attacks in November, up slightly from 85 in October and 82 in September. While the overall figures have been relatively consistent over that period, Al-Monitor’s Shelly Kittleson reports that IS attacks are on the rise in Anbar and Saladin provinces. Wing’s numbers show that Nineveh province is also experiencing an increase while attacks in Diyala and Kirkuk have subsided a bit. The total number of IS attacks in Iraq bottomed out at 52 in June and has been on the rise since then.
KUWAIT
143,574 confirmed cases (+314)
884 reported fatalities (+2)
Kuwait is holding its parliamentary election on December 5, and before you scoff this is the one Persian Gulf state where that actually matters, at least to some degree. Kuwait’s National Assembly has the power to remove government ministers and can override the Emir’s veto of legislation, though as you might expect that doesn’t happen all that often. With the emirate also under a new ruler, following Sheikh Nawaf al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah’s accession as emir in September, the Carnegie Endowment’s Bader al-Saif outlines some of the challenges facing Kuwait’s new leadership:
Kuwait’s humanitarian crisis is not befitting a nation named a “humanitarian center” by the United Nations. The crisis is twofold and is traceable to the country’s independence. First, it involves the status of the bidun, or stateless inhabitants, of Kuwait, who are generally regarded in one of three ways in the country. One view regards them as nationals who, simply, may have failed to file naturalization papers. A second sees the bidun as worthy of naturalization due to their long-term residency, service to the country, or the fact that they have a Kuwaiti mother. A final view holds that about a third of the bidun qualify for citizenship, while the rest either merit to be residents or are imposters, people who actually hold other nationalities, whose inclusion in the state would dilute Kuwait’s national identity. Competing law proposals reflect these visions. While the bickering between the camps continues, the bidun are being further alienated and their rights continue to be curtailed.
Low-skilled migrant workers are the second component of this humanitarian crisis. Some are victims of human trafficking and visa trading schemes while most face poor treatment, evident in poor living and working conditions, low wages, and restricted mobility. Neighboring countries have moved to reform the abusive kafala, or sponsorship, system, a major cause of this inequality, yet Kuwait has not done so yet. This speaks to a rising xenophobia among segments of society. Instead of entertaining long-term residency schemes that welcome foreigners based on their skills, the government has proposed outdated policies such as evictions based on age. The bidun serve in the military and security sectors and almost 30 percent of the country’s population is comprised of low-skilled labor. That not only suggests that Kuwait is facing a humanitarian crisis, but a national security one as well.
In addition to these humanitarian issues, and compounding them, Kuwait is facing the same economic challenges that are hitting all oil-dependent states. And it needs to address shortcomings in sectors like education and healthcare, which are subpar despite considerable public investment.
BAHRAIN
87,432 confirmed cases (+162)
341 reported fatalities (+0)
As part of its new commercial relationship with Israel, the Bahraini government apparently will not ban the importation of products manufactured in the occupied West Bank. As you might expect this has drawn criticism from within Palestinian circles, with Palestinian Liberation Front leader Wasel Abu Yousef accusing the Bahrainis of “contradicting international and UN resolutions.” The UAE, which has also normalized relations with Israel, has not clarified its position on products made in the Occupied Territories, but an Israeli winery that grows grapes in the Golan has apparently said that it will be exporting its products to the UAE.
ASIA
ARMENIA
138,508 confirmed cases (+1277)
2254 reported fatalities (+26)
Hundreds of protesters blocked streets in Yerevan on Thursday evening to continue their movement to oust Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan over the outcome of the recent Nagorno-Karabakh war. Earlier in the day opposition parties proposed that Vazgen Manukyan, Armenia’s first PM after the collapse of the Soviet Union, take over as a caretaker PM until a new election can be held. Pashinyan has rejected calls for his resignation and at this point does not appear to be in serious danger of being ousted, since his supporters control parliament.
AZERBAIJAN
133,733 confirmed cases (+4189)
1510 reported fatalities (+40)
With the war over, the Azerbaijani military has finally acknowledged its casualties—2783 soldiers killed with another 100 missing. It’s virtually impossible to know if these figures are accurate or are being lowballed for propaganda. The Azerbaijani government pointedly refused to discuss military casualties during the conflict.
BANGLADESH
471,739 confirmed cases (+2336)
6748 reported fatalities (+35)
The Bangladeshi government has begun transferring up to 100,000 Rohingya refugees, a relatively small portion of the more than one million Rohingya currently in Bangladeshi refugee camps, to a new facility on an island in the Bay of Bengal. Humanitarian organizations and the United Nations have repeatedly raised concerns about this plan, because the island in question is a floating body that has frequently been submerged in past monsoon seasons. Authorities insist they’ve secured the island against inundation and that they are not forcing any refugees to relocate, though both of those claims should probably be treated with some skepticism.
CHINA
86,567 confirmed cases (+16) on the mainland, 6590 confirmed cases (+90) in Hong Kong
4634 reported fatalities (+0) on the mainland, 110 reported fatalities (+0) in Hong Kong
It’s been quite a couple of days for US-Chinese relations. To wit:
The Trump administration on Wednesday imposed a new ban on cotton imports linked to Xinjiang. The US and some human rights agencies have alleged that Chinese firms are using forced labor drawn from Xinjiang’s Uyghur population, allegations that Chinese officials have denied. Xinjiang is a major global cotton supplier, so the effect of this ban could have wide-ranging repercussions if it forces large manufacturers to start looking elsewhere for their raw materials.
On Thursday, the administration imposed a new visa restriction on members of the Chinese Communist Party and their families. The new measure cuts the length of non-immigrant business and tourist visas to the US for those individuals from ten years to a cool one month.
Congress, meanwhile, voted Wednesday to impose new requirements on foreign companies seeking to be listed on US stock exchanges. The “Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act,” which Donald Trump will assuredly sign into law, obliges foreign firms to make their financial information available to the Securities and Exchange Commission. In particular it requires firms to disclose any board members who are Chinese Communist Party members, making its real target unmistakable. Chinese firms may balk at the idea of sharing information with the US SEC, in which case they could be delisted from US markets.
On a happier note, China’s Chang’e 5 lunar probe has completed its soil and rock collection mission, and its ascent vehicle lifted off the moon’s surface Thursday to begin the return trip to Earth. Some two kilograms of lunar material are supposed to arrive back here later this month, completing the first lunar sample mission since the 1970s.
NORTH KOREA
No acknowledged cases
At Responsible Statecraft, writer Tim Shorrock sees worrying signs for the Biden administration’s approach toward North Korea:
Last week, Joe Biden nominated two veteran advisers, Antony Blinken and Avril Haines, to lead his foreign policy team as America’s chief diplomat and director of U.S. intelligence. Both will have their work cut out for them to meet the new president’s vow to repair relations with America’s allies and, as Biden has said, “lead the world and not retreat from it.”
But there is one part of the world where Blinken and Haines’ experience with multilateral solutions could prove to be problematic and even potentially destructive: the Korean Peninsula. Progressives have voiced considerable concern that Biden could repeat the mistakes of the previous Democratic administration, particularly its failed “strategic patience” policy towards North Korea.
In short, the Obama administration’s position on North Korea was that it was an illegitimate state that would inevitably collapse and be absorbed into South Korea. Not only does this seem woefully misguided, it also justified a strikingly militaristic approach toward North Korea, with the idea of diplomacy totally discarded in favor of squeezing Pyongyang and making preparations for the military crisis planners assumed would attend that “inevitable” state collapse. Much of the planning for that eventual crisis included Japan, whose former colonial relationship with the Korean peninsula makes its participation in intra-Korean matters especially divisive. If Biden opts to revive that policy it will almost certainly be as ineffective as it was for Obama and may empower reactionary elements in South Korea.
AFRICA
LIBYA
84,849 confirmed cases (+762)
1212 reported fatalities (+12)
While it’s probably not going to affect the US-UAE relationship, The Intercept reports that US intelligence agencies are getting a much clearer picture of the role the UAE has played in Libya, and that picture isn’t very pretty:
U.S. intelligence agencies have been looking into whether the United Arab Emirates is helping to finance the Libya operations of the Russian Wagner Group. Both the UAE and Wagner have intervened to support Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar, who has tried to overrun the United Nations-backed government in Tripoli.
But the intelligence reporting, according to current and former officials, has done nothing to slow U.S. arms sales down to the Gulf country. The Trump administration is seeking congressional approval of an unprecedented $23 billion sale of weapons to the UAE, including of some of the U.S.’s most advanced military technology, like the F-35 fighter and MQ-9 Reaper drones. If it goes forward, the sale will shift the long-term balance of power in the region.
The intelligence community’s effort was hinted at in a report to Congress last week by the Pentagon’s inspector general. The report said that although the Defense Intelligence Agency’s reporting on the Wagner Group’s financing in Libya is “ambiguous,” the DIA has nonetheless “assessed that the United Arab Emirates may provide some financing for the group’s operations.” This detail in the inspector general’s report, which was first surfaced by Foreign Policy, does not mention when or how U.S. military intelligence reached that assessment.
CAMEROON
24,487 confirmed cases (+0)
441 reported fatalities (+0)
According to the International Crisis Group, social media is inflaming lingering tensions over Cameroon’s disputed 2018 presidential election (in which incumbent Paul Biya defeated challenger Maurice Kamto amid widespread allegations of irregularities) and is giving them a troubling inter-ethnic tone:
As the political temperature has risen, Cameroonian politicians and the public are making more use of social media to press home their messaging and their views. While the growth of social media has been a boon for free speech, the sector is weakly regulated. Activists of all political persuasions use it to propagate misinformation, widen ethnic divides and even incite violence. Inflammatory content online pitting Bulu and Beti against Bamileke has stoked tensions. Online videos of anti-Biya protests in Geneva in June 2019 prompted MPs from the South – largely Biya loyalists – to accuse emigres from the West, who are generally regarded as Kamto supporters, of tribalism. Violence broke out among these groups in Sangmelima in the South in October 2019, although it caused no fatalities. While it is hard to make a direct causal link, the juxtaposition of online antagonism and real-life skirmishes raises concern that the former could stoke the latter.
Neither side has taken action to temper its supporters’ rhetoric. Senior Cameroonian officials voice concerns over the online vitriol but have done little to reduce it. Any action the government takes in the name of curbing hate speech is usually a smokescreen for repressing its opponents. As for the opposition, it has done little to moderate its supporters’ tone, either, instead blaming the government for tribalising politics to sow division among Cameroonians who oppose Biya. For their part, national communications watchdogs remain under-resourced and distrusted by the public, without clear mandates to tackle what could be a threat not just to the government but to the country’s stability. Facebook itself does not devote adequate resources to stopping toxic online discourse.
ETHIOPIA
111,579 confirmed cases (+595)
1724 reported fatalities (+9)
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has been making the frankly ludicrous claim that his military captured the Tigray regional capital, Mekelle, over the weekend without killing any civilians. But as actual reporting begins to slip through the blackout Abiy’s government has imposed over Tigray, the reality seems to be that the Mekelle operation left at least 27 civilians dead and potentially more, with over 100 people wounded. Coupled with reports that Ethiopian forces shelled civilian areas of the city, this lends credence to claims by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front that they withdrew from Mekelle not in desperation, but to avoid heavier civilian casualties (the truth is probably both). The city’s hospitals are reportedly stretched to capacity and running out of supplies, perhaps because they’ve been looted by Ethiopian soldiers (another claim that’s making the rounds).
It’s believed, though again the blackout makes this hard to determine, that thousands of civilians and combatants have been killed in the month since Abiy’s military, along with allied paramilitaries, attacked TPLF forces. Tens of thousands of people have fled Tigray into neighboring Sudan, and now there are also reports from Sudan that Ethiopian forces are blocking more people from making that same trip. And there are still hundreds of thousands of people in Mekelle who are now struggling to find food and clean water.
SOMALIA
4525 confirmed cases (+0)
121 reported fatalities (+0)
According to the Guardian, a Central Intelligence Agency officer who was killed in Somalia last month died on a botched operation targeting three senior al-Shabab figures, including the organizations primary bomb maker. Al-Shabab claimed to have learned of the plot and set an ambush for US and Somali forces, but they may be embellishing things.
EUROPE
MOLDOVA
112,307 confirmed cases (+1727)
2363 reported fatalities (+20)
The Moldovan parliament voted Thursday to strip the country’s presidency of one of its few real powers, just in time for incumbent Igor Dodon to hand the office over to President-elect Maia Sandu. With a bare majority of 51 votes in the 101 seat legislature, parliamentarians put Moldova’s Information and Security Service under legislative oversight. The agency had formerly reported to the president. The principled argument for legislative oversight is sound enough. But that argument would probably have carried more weight if the Socialist party, which holds a plurality in the Moldovan parliament and is the senior partner in Moldova’s minority coalition government, had pushed for it when Dodon, its ally, wasn’t a lame duck. The vote prompted thousands of people to demonstrate in Chișinău in opposition. Sandu, addressing the crowd, called for a snap legislative election. It’s unlikely she’ll get it.
UNITED KINGDOM
1,674,134 confirmed cases (+14,879)
60,113 reported fatalities (+414)
In breaking news, there’s still no Brexit deal. European Union sources are claiming a deal could be worked out in a matter of hours, but UK sources are claiming that the window to achieve an agreement is closing. In other words, everybody is posturing. I remain convinced that elites in both the EU and UK will manage to cobble together some kind of agreement that ensures they’ll be OK when the UK leaves the bloc at the end of the year. Everybody else’s interests probably won’t be such a priority.
AMERICAS
PERU
968,846 confirmed cases (+1771)
36,104 reported fatalities (+28)
At least one person is dead as protests by farm workers in Peru continued for a fourth day on Thursday. The workers, who are angry over low wages, have been clashing with police and with truckers, who are themselves angry that the protesters have blocked the Pan-American Highway and snarled cargo traffic. Interim President Francisco Sagasti has pledged to investigate the death, which some protesters are blaming on police.
UNITED STATES
14,535,196 confirmed cases (+218,576)
282,829 reported fatalities (+2918)
Finally, I don’t really have a US story today except that, by whatever set of figures you use, we here in The World’s Only Superpower™ are experiencing all time highs in both new COVID-19 cases and COVID-19 fatalities. I realize vaccines are on the way and those might (hopefully?) help, but even so I think it may be a good opportunity for everybody to step back and take stock of that whole American Exceptionalism™ thing. I mean, these numbers are exceptional, but I’m not sure they’re the kind of “exceptional” our political leaders mean when they use that term.