World roundup: December 19 2024
Stories from Israel-Palestine, China, Romania, and elsewhere
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PROGRAMMING NOTE: As I mentioned on Sunday, this will be FX’s last regularly scheduled roundup of 2024. Barring any unforeseen complications we will resume normal operations on Tuesday, January 7. Between now and then I’ll be posting our usual history nuggets and later this month I’ll be publishing the next entry in Daniel Steinmetz-Jenkins’ antiwar series. And if you haven’t listened yet to my interview with historian Eleanor Janega please do! Finally, let me take this opportunity to once again thank you all for reading and supporting Foreign Exchanges in 2024. Happy Holidays and I’ll see you next year!
TODAY IN HISTORY
December 19, 1946: The Battle of Hanoi marks the start of the 1946-1954 First Indochina War. The battle began when Việt Minh forces bombed Hanoi’s power plant and under cover of darkness began attacking French forces in the city. The Việt Minh eventually had to withdraw in the face of superior French numbers in February 1947, though of course they would eventually win the war. The outcome was a partition of Vietnam into northern and southern states—which ended when North Vietnam won the Vietnam War—and the ouster of French forces from the region.
December 19, 1984: British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and Chinese Premier Zhao Ziyang sign the Sino-British Joint Declaration in Beijing. The declaration set July 1, 1997, as the date upon which the British government would turn control of Hong Kong, including Kowloon and the New Territories, over to the Chinese government.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
Ha’aretz reports that the Israeli military (IDF) has been treating the arbitrary boundary around its “Netzarim Corridor” in central Gaza as the entryway to a kill zone. According to one “senior officer” in the IDF’s Division 252, “anyone who enters [Netazarim] is shot.” Enough Palestinians have stumbled into the kill zone to have created a “line of dead bodies” (the IDF leaves them there to rot and feed scavengers) that now marks the corridor’s border in some places. Needless to say the existence of this sort of “shoot first” policy undermines the myths that Israeli and US officials continue to peddle about the IDF’s behavior:
A recently discharged Division 252 officer describes the arbitrary nature of this boundary: "For the division, the kill zone extends as far as a sniper can see." But the issue goes beyond geography. "We're killing civilians there who are then counted as terrorists," he says. "The IDF spokesperson's announcements about casualty numbers have turned this into a competition between units. If Division 99 kills 150 [people], the next unit aims for 200."
These accounts of indiscriminate killing and the routine classification of civilian casualties as terrorists emerged repeatedly in Haaretz's conversations with recent Gaza veterans.
"Calling ourselves the world's most moral army absolves soldiers who know exactly what we're doing," says a senior reserve commander who has recently returned from the Netzarim corridor. "It means ignoring that for over a year, we've operated in a lawless space where human life holds no value. Yes, we commanders and combatants are participating in the atrocity unfolding in Gaza. Now everyone must face this reality."
This story should also undermine the reliability of Israeli casualty figures. When the IDF declares that it has killed a certain number of militants, it’s counting anyone who wanders into one of its shooting galleries as a “militant.” We often get told that official casualty figures from Gaza are problematic because authorities don’t distinguish between civilian and combatant casualties. It turns out that the IDF often doesn’t distinguish between civilians and combatants at all.
In other items:
IDF strikes killed at least 25 people across northern and central Gaza on Thursday. That toll was expected to rise as recovery work continued. The United Nations says that Israeli forces are once again completely blocking humanitarian aid from reaching the besieged northern areas of Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahia, and Jabalia. Doctors Without Borders head Christopher Lockyear issued a statement noting “signs of ethnic cleansing” in those areas, while Human Rights Watch released a new report concluding that the IDF is engaged in a “systematic” effort to deny water to Gaza’s population, an act of “genocide” that has “likely caused thousands of deaths.” The Israeli government denied both claims.
Stephen Semler has a new piece at Responsible Statecraft arguing that when Israeli officials take to social media to brag about how much aid they’re letting into Gaza they are usually admitting to serious violations of international humanitarian law. The Israeli position is that any shortfalls in aid are due to the failure or deliberate misdeeds of Hamas and NGOs. But according to Semler these social media posts show pretty conclusively that it’s the Israelis who are responsible.
Another Ha’aretz report alleges that the IDF is not updating its targeting information after it strikes buildings in Gaza. What this means is that if it identifies a building as being occupied by militants and bombs it, then civilians later take shelter in whatever remains of that structure, the IDF is likely to strike it again because it will still be listed as a legitimate target and any casualties in that subsequent strike will be classified as combatants. This further calls the IDF’s casualty figures into question and shows its organizational indifference when it comes to identifying and protecting civilians.
Israeli forces killed at least six Palestinians in two West Bank incidents on Thursday. An IDF airstrike killed four people and wounded three others in the Tulkarm refugee camp, while its forces killed two people, including an 80 year old woman, in the Balata refugee camp outside Nablus.
SYRIA
The Syrian Democratic Forces put thousands of people into the streets of the northeastern Syrian city of Qamishli on Thursday as a show of popular support in the face of a Turkish-led effort to destroy the group. There are growing expectations that the Turkish military and its “Syrian National Army” proxies are going to attack the SDF-held town of Kobani and there are still reports of scattered clashes between the SNA and SDF near both Kobani and the town of Manbij despite a supposed US-brokered ceasefire. In fact, the Turkish government insists that there is no ceasefire and will not be on until the Kurdish YPG militia—the SDF’s main faction, which Ankara regards as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)—agrees to disarm and expel its foreign elements from Syria. SDF leader Mazloum Abdi suggested for the first time on Thursday that he would be prepared to expel those foreign elements as part of a final ceasefire agreement with Turkey.
Speaking of the US, the Pentagon revealed to reporters on Thursday that there are now 2000 US soldiers in Syria, up from a deployment of 900. It’s unclear when the additional personnel turned up but according to Pentagon spokesperson Pat Ryder it was prior to former Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad’s ouster earlier this month. The US government has been standing by that 900 figure since 2019 and Ryder offered no indication when or why the policy changed—indeed, he suggested that the revelation that the US presence in Syria is twice as large as previously admitted came as a surprise to him. Ryder characterized 900 of those soldiers as part of a “long-term” deployment and the rest as “temporary rotational forces.”
YEMEN
The IDF bombarded northern Yemen’s capital city, Sanaa, and its largest port, Hudaydah, on Thursday morning, targeting port and power facilities and killing at least nine people according to the Houthi movement. This strike has been portrayed as retaliation for a Houthi missile attack that damaged a school in central Israel (the IDF says it intercepted the device and its shrapnel caused the damage), but the timing doesn’t seem entirely right because the Houthi missile was still en route when the Israeli attack took place. The Houthis have carried out a handful of attacks against Israel over the past several weeks so this may have been a more general retaliation.
The Biden administration added more names to its Houthi sanctions list on Thursday, including several individuals and a number of entities. Among the individuals was Hashem al-Madani, the Houthis’ central bank governor, whose institution the US accuses of facilitating Houthi arms procurement. The nominal Yemeni government that operates out of Aden has its own central bank with its own governor.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
According to Reuters, the Biden administration has pledged to provide the US Congress with an assessment of the UAE’s relationship with Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group by January 17. There is apparently some interest in suspending weapons sales to the UAE if the administration concludes (as has just about everybody at this point) that the Emiratis are supporting the RSF. The administration is currently playing dumb on the matter—according to National Security Council Middle East/North Africa coordinator Brett McGurk “the UAE has informed the Administration that it is not now transferring any weapons to the RSF and will not do so going forward.” McGurk’s letter promising the assessment stresses that administration will be trying to ascertain the “credibility” of the UAE’s claim.
I don’t think there’s any reason to expect the administration to risk crossing the UAE on this issue, given that Joe Biden just promoted the country to the status of “major defense partner” only a couple of months ago despite being fully aware of the role it’s playing in Sudan. Even if it surprises by concluding that the Emiratis are supporting the RSF’s campaign of atrocities, it seems unlikely that there will be enough congressional support to actually block arms sales.
ASIA
INDIA
The Indian military is claiming that its soldiers killed “five suspected militants” in the Kashmir region on Thursday. Those soldiers were reportedly conducting a raid when they came under attack. Two of the soldiers were wounded in the ensuing engagement.
Elsewhere, Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval visited Beijing on Thursday to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and reopen talks on settling the Indian-Chinese border dispute for the first time since 2019. This comes in the wake of the progress the two countries have made in disengaging their forces along the “Line of Actual Control,” standing down from positions they took following a deadly clash between border guards in 2020. According to the Chinese government “both sides agreed to continue taking measures to maintain peace and tranquility in the border areas and to promote the healthy and stable development of bilateral relations.” Among other issues they apparently discussed ensuring the ability of Indian pilgrims to cross into Tibet and expanding commercial activity in border areas.
CHINA
Foreign Policy reports on the still-emerging scope of the Chinese-linked “Salt Typhoon” cyberattack:
The attack, by a Chinese government-linked hacking group dubbed “Salt Typhoon” by investigators, was first revealed in late September. The hackers infiltrated at least eight major U.S. telecommunication networks, including AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile, targeting the cellphones of several government officials and politicians, including President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance.
The intrusion has sent alarm bells ringing among intelligence agencies and lawmakers, with Senate Intelligence Committee chair Mark Warner referring to it as the “worst telecom hack in our nation’s history—by far.” Sen. Marco Rubio, the committee’s ranking member and Trump’s nominee for secretary of state, went a step further. “It’s the most disturbing and widespread incursion into our telecommunication systems in the history of the world, not just the country,” he told reporters this month. “That’s about as bad as it gets.”
Even more concerning, U.S. officials said that as of early this month, they had still not been able to expel the hackers from most of the compromised systems and were unable to give a timeline for when that would be achieved.
AFRICA
BURKINA FASO
Authorities in Burkina Faso have apparently released four acknowledged French spies whom it’s held in custody since December 2023. French President Emmanuel Macron thanked Moroccan King Mohammed VI for brokering their release. The case is indicative of the collapse in French relations with its former colonies in the Sahel, like Burkina Faso, and also of recent improvements in its relations with Morocco. Macron’s decision earlier this year to accept Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara region has significantly strengthened Paris-Rabat ties, as previously shown during his visit to Rabat in October.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
Congolese authorities still believe that a “severe form of malaria” is responsible for a recent outbreak of respiratory illness that has killed perhaps upwards of 143 people in the Panzi zone of the DRC’s Kwango province. However, the death of a man in that zone on Thursday due to hemorrhagic fever has raised concerns that something else may be at work, given that hemorrhagic fever is generally seen in vases of viral infection and malaria is caused by a parasite. Officials did consider the possibility that more than one affliction might be fueling the outbreak, whose main common factor seems to be malnutrition rather than a particular pathogen, before announcing their malaria determination. They’ve begun surging antimalarial supplies into the area, so if there is also a viral infection circulating that could complicate treatment efforts.
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EUROPE
RUSSIA
The South Korean National Intelligence Service is telling lawmakers in Seoul that it believes around 100 North Korean soldiers have been killed and upwards of 1000 wounded in recent fighting in Russia’s Kursk oblast. That’s a significant fraction of the estimated 10,000 to 12,000 North Korean soldiers that US and Ukrainian officials claim are currently in Russia and would definitely suggest that those soldiers have shifted from support roles to more front-line positions. Losses notwithstanding, the NIS still says that Pyongyang may be planning to send more soldiers to Russia.
UKRAINE
The Russian military claimed on Thursday that its forces had seized two more villages in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk oblast. Both are located southwest of the town of Kurakhove, one of Moscow’s primary targets of late. Russian forces appear to be close to encircling Kurakhove if they haven’t effectively done so already. Their advances on Thursday brought them close to what AFP characterized as “a large command and logistics post” for the Ukrainian military.
ROMANIA
Romanian politics hit another skid on Thursday when the Social Democratic Party (PSD), which maintained its position as the largest party in the Chamber of Deputies in this month’s parliamentary election, withdrew from talks on forming a broad, four-party “pro-Europe” coalition. The decision throws the outcome of that election into chaos since there now doesn’t appear to be a clear majority bloc in the legislature—though PSD leader and current Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu did talk about supporting a “right-wing government” and it’s possible that with PSD support such an administration could emerge. What’s also now unclear is what’s going to happen in the eventual rerun of Romania’s nullified presidential election. The four parties were also talking about fielding a joint candidate in that contest to try to prevent another far-right victory, but that’s presumably off the table now.
FRANCE
If new French Prime Minister François Bayrou was expecting a honeymoon phase with the French public, it looks like he’s in for disappointment. A new poll from Ifop-Fiducial finds that 64 percent of the French public disapproves of Macron’s decision to name Bayrou to replace ousted former PM Michel Barnier. Most of their animus seems related to a belief that Bayrou’s government isn’t going to last any longer than Barnier’s did—two-thirds of respondents are expecting it to face no-confidence motions in parliament.
AMERICAS
BRAZIL
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is back to “his regular duties” in Brasília, according to AFP. Lula had to undergo surgery last week to stop intracranial bleeding, the lingering effects of a fall he suffered back in October.
MEXICO
Another improvised explosive device killed two more Mexican security personnel in Michoacan state on Wednesday, two days after a similar device killed two police officers in the same state. Wednesday’s blast took place in a region controlled by the Jalisco cartel, whereas Monday’s incident was in an area controlled by the rival United Cartels network.
UNITED STATES
Finally, FOREVER WARS’ Spencer Ackerman argues that Donald Trump’s emerging foreign policy team does not bode well for future US policy in the Middle East:
MAJOR DECISIONS about the Middle East and the US role in it are about to be shaped by a coterie within Donald Trump's incoming administration that views the region and its peoples in terms of a grand historical clash with Islam, the religion of most of its residents.
At the dawn of the War on Terror, the Bush administration had strong influences from evangelical Christians prone to civilizational understandings of 9/11. But at its senior levels, its preoccupations had more to do with expansive assertions of US military power, even as those assertions might have suited those invested in a clash of civilizations.
The Trump restoration has no shortage of familiar right-wing hawks. But its senior ranks are also set to include those who see Islam as a marauding horde of invaders bent on conquest. The alliance between these two forces is about to have its biggest opportunity since 9/11.
The early December collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria has capped a failure cascade for its patron in Iran, which has seen US-backed Israel inflict catastrophic damage upon Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas-controlled Gaza, and even on Iranian soil. Senior officials in Israel are talking not only about another year of genocide in Gaza but the annexation of the West Bank. Far from the Trump campaign rhetoric about peace, as absurd as it was, the incoming hardliners are likely to feel that they have momentum – if not divine sanction – to reshape the balance of power in the Middle East. Just last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is already considering airstrikes on Iran.
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