World roundup: December 16-17 2023

Stories from Israel-Palestine, North Korea, Chile, and elsewhere

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Hi folks! We’re approaching the Christmas-New Years holiday and that means it’s nearly time for FX’s annual holiday break. Those of you who have been around for a few months know that this has been a challenging year for me on a personal level and I do have some family matters to address over the holidays. So my plan at present is to pause the newsletter after Tuesday night’s roundup and resume a normal schedule on Sunday, January 7. If news warrants I may break in here and there with an update or two along the way. I’ll say more on Tuesday, but let me also take this opportunity to wish you and yours a happy holiday season and to thank you for supporting this newsletter in 2023!

THIS WEEKEND IN HISTORY

December 16, 755: Chinese general An Lushan declares himself emperor, attempting to usurp power from the ruling Tang Dynasty. The An Lushan Rebellion lasted over seven years (long after the death of its namesake in 757), and while it failed it also badly weakened the Tang Dynasty, which strengthened the neighboring Uyghur Khaganate and the Tibetan Empire.

December 16, 1944: A major and sudden German offensive in the Ardennes Forest begins the Battle of the Bulge, one of the most important engagements on the Western Front in World War II. The battle ended on January 25, 1945, with an Allied victory. The German attack did delay the Allied advance into Germany by several weeks, but the cost was the near obliteration of whatever remained of the German military’s capacity to wage an offensive war.

December 16, 1971: The Indo-Pakistani War and Bangladesh Liberation War (two parts of the same conflict) both end.

December 17, 1398: The Battle of Delhi

December 17, 2010: A Tunisian street vendor in Sidi Bouzid, named Mohamed Bouazizi, sets himself on fire to protest mistreatment by corrupt municipal authorities. Public outrage over Bouazizi’s case sparked the Tunisian Revolution, which in turn helped in spark the Arab Spring movement.

MIDDLE EAST

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

On a positive note, the Israeli government on Sunday began for the first time allowing aid trucks to pass through the Kerem Shalom checkpoint to enter Gaza. As I’ve mentioned previously this is a significant step in terms of increasing the amount of humanitarian aid that can get into the territory. Opening Kerem Shalom creates a second channel for aid trucks in addition to the over-capacity Rafah checkpoint, and unlike Rafah (which was built mainly to handle foot traffic) this checkpoint was actually designed for heavy trucks. The benefits of opening Kerem Shalom, of course, are barely more than window dressing in the face of continued sustained Israeli bombardment across Gaza and the military (IDF) operation in Khan Younis. None of that diminished over the weekend.

However, the weekend also brought indications that talks have resumed around another ceasefire/prisoner release deal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly dispatched Mossad director David Barnea to an unspecified location in Europe late Friday to meet with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani on that subject. The Qatari government has since confirmed that talks are underway, and according to Israeli media another such encounter is forthcoming. Egyptian officials have said that Hamas leadership is open to the idea as well, though the two sides are not yet on the same page. Netanyahu hinted at new talks in a Saturday press conference that was perhaps in part a response to renewed outrage from the families of the Israeli hostages who are still being held in Gaza. What’s sparking the outrage, you ask? The fallout from an incident on Friday in which Israeli soldiers gunned down three hostages in northern Gaza. It turns out that the three were shirtless and waving a makeshift white flag (and makeshift “SOS” banners) but that soldiers opened fire on them anyway. Needless to say, the shooting has added to the already considerable pressure on Netanyahu to at least make a token effort at getting the hostages out of Gaza alive.

Friday’s incident has been characterized in media as “accidental” or “a mistake,” but in reality it’s a fairly expected outcome of an IDF operating posture that tells soldiers to shoot first and ask questions later (or never—soldiers only bothered to check the bodies in this case because of questions about their appearance). The IDF considers all of northern Gaza a free-fire zone, under the presumption that Gazan militants could pose as civilians and, anyway, the Israeli government told people to evacuate that area weeks ago. It would, and regularly does, open fire on Palestinian civilians, so the potential for an Israeli hostage or two, or three, to wind up being killed in those circumstances is fairly high. Israeli officials can claim in hindsight that Friday’s incident violated the IDF’s rules of engagement, but had these been three Palestinians I doubt they would be saying anything at all.

In other items:

• Steady IDF violence in the West Bank continued through the weekend as well. A major Israeli operation in the northern city of Tulkarm left at least five Palestinians dead on Sunday, at least two killed in IDF drone strikes. Israeli soldiers reportedly blocked ambulances from reaching wounded people amid the fighting. Israeli forces killed at least three Palestinians in three separate incidents (including one in Tulkarm) on Saturday. Israeli forces have now killed nearly 300 Palestinians in the West Bank since the October 7 militant attacks.

• The IDF announced on Saturday that its siege of Kamal Adwan hospital in northern Gaza was over. According to Israeli officials the IDF took some 80 prisoners from the facility and recovered weapons. It also allegedly used bulldozers to massacre a crowd of civilians, some of them wounded, who were camped outside the hospital. This story hasn’t been confirmed, but there’s enough video of it circulating online to qualify as smoke from the proverbial fire. The Palestinian Authority says it’s demanding an investigation. If you hadn’t already guessed, the hospital itself is reportedly in ruins in the wake of the siege.

• The IDF announced on Sunday that its personnel had discovered a very large Hamas tunnel, wide enough to accommodate vehicles, positioned very close to the Erez checkpoint on the northern edge of Gaza. Assuming this is accurate this tunnel was almost certainly used during the October 7 attacks. The discovery of a structure this large located so near to a major Israeli security outpost is going to raise new questions as to how exactly Israeli military and intelligence services were spending their time prior to October 7, because clearly they weren’t keeping a particularly watchful eye on Gaza.

SYRIA

Syrian military shelling killed at least seven people and wounded another six in Aleppo province on Sunday, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. This shelling may have been in response to a Hayat Tahrir al-Sham attack in Latakia province that killed at least five soldiers, which in turn appears to have been retaliation for military shelling earlier on Sunday that wounded at least 14 people in Idlib province.

Meanwhile, the Syrian military is saying that an apparent Israeli missile strike wounded two soldiers near Damascus on Sunday night. This story broke fairly late in the day so there may be additional information available by tomorrow’s roundup.

YEMEN

The US and UK navies said on Saturday that their vessels had collectively shot down 15 drones in the Red Sea, all presumably launched by the Houthi rebels in northern Yemen. The Guardian’s Patrick Wintour reported on Sunday that the Biden administration is set to unveil a new, expanded coalition of nations committed to monitoring shipping traffic through the Red Sea region in response to the ongoing wave of Houthi attacks. With major shipping firms now swearing off the Red Sea (and, thus, the Suez Canal) as a result of those attacks, the coalition’s intended effect will be as much psychological as practical.

Meanwhile, the Houthis said on Saturday that their representatives are engaged in talks with “international parties,” mediated by the Omani government, over the Red Sea situation. It’s unclear who those “parties” are but I think the announcement highlights part of the Houthis’ rationale in getting involved in the Gaza conflict in this fashion—they want to be seen as an important regional actor. To that end they’re highlighting the fact that “international parties” are now talking to them.

LEBANON

Something the IDF characterized as a “hostile aircraft” (presumably a drone) killed one Israeli soldier and wounded two others near the Lebanese border on Saturday. That makes at least seven Israeli soldiers killed in cross-border conflict since October 7. The exchange of fire between the IDF and Hezbollah continued on Sunday, though I haven’t seen any reports of casualties.

KUWAIT

Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Nawaf al-Ahmad al-Sabah died on Saturday, approaching three weeks after the “emergency health problem” that put him in the hospital late last month. Former Crown Prince Sheikh Meshal al-Ahmad al-Sabah, who was already running the emirate on a de facto basis, succeeded his brother as emir. At 83, Meshal was presumably the oldest heir apparent in the world and for obvious reasons one assumes he’ll be naming his own heir apparent ASAP. His choice is likely going to involve a generational shift in the Kuwaiti monarchy, which could create or exacerbate tension within the royal family.

ASIA

BANGLADESH

A protest organized by the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party brought tens of thousands of people out onto the streets of Dhaka on Saturday. The BNP is still demanding the resignation of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her cabinet in favor of a “technocratic” government that would oversee next year’s parliamentary election. The party has been figuratively (and, for some of its leaders, literally) on the run since a similar demonstration in late October turned violent and resulted in the death of a police officer. Party supporters on Saturday marched on the BNP’s headquarters, which Bangladeshi authorities apparently padlocked after that incident in October.

MYANMAR

That alleged Chinese-brokered ceasefire in Myanmar’s Shan state took another serious blow on Saturday when the rebel Ta’ang National Liberation Army, part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance coalition, announced that its fighters had seized the town of Namhsan. The TNLA also announced its capture of the “105-Mile Trade Zone,” which AFP describes as “a major trading conduit on the border with China.”

PHILIPPINES

Fighting between the Philippine military and New People’s Army rebels near the town of Balayan left at least six rebels and one soldier dead on Sunday, with at least three more soldiers wounded. It’s unclear what caused the incident but it comes at a somewhat inopportune time, about three weeks after the Philippine government and the NPA agreed to resume peace talks. It’s unclear whether Sunday’s clash could threaten those talks.

NORTH KOREA

The North Korean military fired a ballistic missile off of the country’s east coast on Sunday evening and then followed that up with a second launch early Monday morning. It’s too soon for many details about the launches. The South Korean military has been warning that Pyongyang might be ramping up for a test/demonstration of an intercontinental ballistic missile, and the second launch may have been just that although right now reports are only saying that it involved a “long-range” ballistic missile of some kind. In announcing the Sunday evening launch, North Korean media blamed the US and South Korean governments, which it lambasted as “military gangsters,” for provoking regional tensions. It cited the arrival to South Korea on Sunday of the nuclear-powered US attack submarine USS Missouri. The US and South Korea also held a meeting of their bilateral “Nuclear Consultative Group” on Friday that doesn’t appear to have been well received in Pyongyang.

AFRICA

SUDAN

The Rapid Support Forces group continued to assail the hitherto peaceful Sudanese city of Wad Madani over the weekend, as the Sudanese military attempted (not very successfully, it seems) to blunt the RSF’s advance with airstrikes. Because the military-RSF conflict hadn’t reached Wad Madani the city had become something of a safe haven for Sudanese civilians displaced by fighting in the Khartoum region to the north—presumably many of them were among the thousands of people who fled the city over the weekend amid the RSF offensive.

A truck carrying civilians fleeing Wad Madani on Saturday (AFP via Getty Images)

The Chadian government on Sunday declared four Sudanese diplomats personae non grata and expelled them from the country, in response to recent accusations from the Sudanese military that Chad has been assisting the RSF. The Sudanese military did likewise with three Chadian diplomats in retaliation.

CHAD

Chadian voters went to the polls on Sunday to consider a new constitution, in a referendum that will mark the first real stage of the country’s transition back to nominally civilian rule. Chad’s ruling junta has clearly put its finger on the “yes” side of the scale so I don’t think there’s much suspense as to the outcome, though official results may take some time.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO

A number of Congolese political and militia groups, including the M23 militia, met in Nairobi on Friday to unveil something they’re calling “the Congo River Alliance.” I’m not entirely clear as to its mission, but the new group was clearly not welcomed by the Congolese government. It has recalled its ambassadors from Kenya and Tanzania and has summoned Kenya’s senior diplomatic representative in Kinshasa to lodge a complaint. The East African Community bloc’s headquarters is in Tanzania, which appears to be the reason the DRC recalled that ambassador.

Meanwhile, just days before the DRC’s December 20 election two candidates for parliament were killed on Friday, one in a shooting in South Kivu province and the other in a shooting in North Kivu province. Violence from partisans across the political spectrum is one of many factors threatening to upend Wednesday’s vote.

EUROPE

RUSSIA

The governor of Russia’s Belgorod oblast, Vyacheslav Gladkov, reported via Telegram on Sunday that the village of Trebreno was under attack by Ukrainian forces. The right-wing paramilitary Freedom of Russia Legion group, which is based in Ukraine, later claimed responsibility for the attack, which it said targeted a “platoon stronghold of Russian troops” without indicating whether it had actually resulted in any casualties and/or damage. Gladkov’s statement indicated some damage to local houses and a power line but no casualties. The previous day he’d reported multiple attacks in the province, probably by Ukrainian drones.

UKRAINE

Those Saturday strikes were part of a substantial exchange of drone fire over the weekend. Vasily Golubev, governor of Russia’s Rostov oblast, reported a large number of Ukrainian strikes overnight that apparently targeted the Russian military’s Morozovsk airbase. A Russian drone strike killed at least one person overnight in the Ukrainian port city of Odesa and Russian shelling later on Sunday killed one man in Ukraine’s Kherson oblast.

SERBIA

Sunday’s snap parliamentary election went about as expected, with the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) winning what appears to have been a pretty overwhelming victory. While final results aren’t available yet, a sampling of ballots already counted gives SNS around 46 percent of the vote, double the 23 percent its main opposition “Serbia Against Violence” (SPN) coalition received. If that’s accurate SNS should hold a sole majority in the new parliament, though it will presumably take on coalition partners to cushion that majority. The party also appears to have won a narrow victory over SPN in the Belgrade municipal election. While the parliamentary outcome was never in doubt there was some question as to whether SNS could hang on to control of the Serbian capital.

AMERICAS

CHILE

Sunday’s Chilean constitutional referendum also seems to have conformed to polling, with voters roundly rejecting a draft constitution regarded as even more conservative than the country’s current, Augusto Pinochet-promulgated charter. Nearly all the votes have been counted and “no” took just under 56 percent of the vote. Chilean President Gabriel Boric, who tried and failed to pass a much leftier draft in a plebiscite last year and whose presidency has been in limbo ever since, has said that he has no intention of trying a third time to replace the 1980 constitution.

COLOMBIA

The National Liberation Army (ELN), Colombia’s largest active rebel group, announced on Sunday that it’s giving up kidnapping for ransom as a tactic, under the rubric of its current ceasefire with the Colombian government. So if the ceasefire goes, I guess, kidnapping will be back on the menu. The parties had another negotiating session over the weekend as part of their long-range peace process and may have discussed ELN’s kidnapping a couple of months ago of the father of Colombian football star Luis Díaz. That incident didn’t do much for ELN’s public image, and the backlash may have contributed to the decision to give up the practice. It’s unclear whether the group intends to release the 38 (give or take) people it is currently believed to be holding.

UNITED STATES

Finally, Responsible Statecraft’s Artin Dersimonian and Ben Freeman point to the extensive lobbying operation that has muted the reaction in Europe and the US to recent events in the southern Caucasus:

Senate Foreign Relations Committee chair Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) recently sent a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken urging him to get tougher on Azerbaijan for its “brazen campaign of ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh.”

This follows an earlier statement from Cardin, shortly after Azerbaijan’s September “lightning offensive” against Nagorno-Karabakh, that called for the U.S. to “halt security assistance to Azerbaijan,” and increase humanitarian support for the 100,000 ethnic Armenians who fled en masse from Nagorno-Karabakh.

As of this writing, neither of those things has occurred and the Biden administration has done little to address Azerbaijan’s military aggression. While there are undoubtedly myriad reasons for the U.S. government’s lukewarm response, one possible explanation is one of Washington’s oldest pastimes: lobbying. For years, the Azerbaijan government has been financing a well connected lobbying and influence operation in the U.S. that has worked diligently to keep U.S. military assistance flowing and to ensure that policymakers turn a blind-eye to the country’s consistent human rights violations.

As documented in a just released Quincy Institute brief, The Lobbying Battle for Nagorno-Karabakh, the government of Azerbaijan has spent millions of dollars on registered lobbyists and much more on illicit influence operations that have helped foster and maintain support for Baku across Europe and the U.S.