World roundup: December 10 2024
Stories from Syria, South Korea, Somalia, and elsewhere
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TODAY IN HISTORY
December 10, 1877: A Russian army defeats an Ottoman garrison and captures the town of Plevna, in modern Bulgaria. Despite the defeat, the months-long Ottoman defense at Plevna frustrated and ultimately may have prevented a Russian advance on Constantinople while creating time for other European powers (i.e., Britain and France) to react and warn Russia off of any attempt at wiping the Ottoman Empire out. Although the Ottomans lost the 1877-1878 Russo-Ottoman War, a loss that could have been fatal to the empire wound up only costing it some Balkan territory.
December 10, 1898: The Treaty of Paris ends the Spanish-American War. Under its terms, Spain agreed to give up its claims on Cuba (which became a US protectorate) and turned Guam, the Philippines, and Puerto Rico over to the United States. It is often considered the end of the Spanish empire, though Spain still held some colonies so that’s not really accurate, and the first emergence of the United States as a major world power.
INTERNATIONAL
A new report from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration finds that the Arctic tundra is now emitting more carbon than it absorbs, a major shift for a region that used to be one of the planet’s great carbon sinks. Warming temperatures are thawing permafrost, which then emits carbon dioxide and methane, and they’re increasing the frequency of Arctic wildfires, which likewise spew carbon into the atmosphere and speed up the process of thawing. It’s unclear whether this shift is now permanent but that is a troubling concern.
The International Federation of Journalists revealed on Thursday that at least 104 media personnel have been killed around the world this year, which is down from 129 last year but, then, the year isn’t over yet. Gaza has been by far the most dangerous place for journalists, accounting for 55 of those 104 deaths. Additionally, the IFJ reports that some 520 journalists are now imprisoned worldwide, up from 427 last year.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
There are so many stories related to Syria right now that it’s difficult to keep track of everything. Here are some of the main ones I’ve come across:
Mohammed al-Bashir, the former head of the “Salvation Government” that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham established in Idlib province, officially introduced himself as the head of HTS’s transitional Syrian government on Tuesday. The plan at present is for this administration to remain in place until March. Ahmed al-Sharaa, the HTS leader formerly known as “Abu Mohammad al-Julani,” said that parts of the previous government will remain in place though unsurprisingly there’s a lot about this that still seems to be up in the air. For example, what’s going to happen in March? That’s a very short timeline if the intention is to unveil a new and more permanent government at that time. Are there supposed to be elections? What about a new constitution? Who’s going to be involved in those processes? All of those huge questions and many more remain unanswered.
While the political situation in Damascus still seems to be going more or less OK, unanswered questions notwithstanding, the news from other parts of Syria is not so good. If you go looking for them, you will find multiple anecdotal stories of insurgent factions sweeping into minority (usually Alawite) villages in areas now under their control (in Homs province, for example) and committing atrocities against the residents of those places. I can’t point to anything I would consider “confirmed” but there are enough of these stories circulating to cause concern. Notably the incidents I’ve seen involve factions other than HTS, though that doesn’t absolve HTS of responsibility, especially if Sharaa now fashions himself the new leader of Syria.
In the northeast, the Turkish-backed “Syrian National Army” is reportedly moving toward Kobani, which is held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces group. Notably this has involved crossing to the eastern side of the Euphrates River, which is a major step that indicates the Turkish government was not satisfied with just clearing the SDF out of its last major position on the western side, Manbij. On Tuesday evening SDF commander Mazlum Abdi claimed that the US had brokered a truce wherein SDF forces in the Manbij area agreed to withdraw to the eastern side of the river, though they’d already mostly been forced to do that by the fighting. It’s unclear whether this is going to stop the Turkish/SNA advance. Fighting between the SDF and SNA has killed 218 people over the past three days, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Long term the SDF is in a difficult position, without the Assad government and Russia to oppose Turkey and the SNA and with Donald Trump—notably not a fan of the US military presence in Syria—returning to office. If there is a deal to be reached with Ankara, perhaps as part of the Turkish government’s latest nods toward patching things up with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), SDF leaders may want to take it.
In eastern Syria, the SDF has reportedly withdrawn from the city of Deir Ezzor and handed it off to an HTS-led coalition. The SDF seized that city on Friday as the then-Syrian military withdrew. Details here are very spotty so it’s unclear what led to the SDF decision to hand it over to the HTS.
Meanwhile, the SOHR is reporting that Islamic State fighters “executed 54” fleeing Syrian soldiers in Homs province. I’m not entirely clear as to when this incident is to have taken place but regardless it’s a reminder that IS units still lurk in parts of Syria and could take advantage of the political chaos to carry out more attacks like this, even as the US military is trying to bombard them.
And of course there’s also Israel. We’ve covered the Israeli military’s (IDF) intense bombardment of Syrian military sites and its invasion of southern Syria, actions that Israeli officials insist are simply temporary responses to the rebel takeover of Damascus. I think it’s somewhat revealing that the IDF is now hurriedly trying to destroy a lot of advanced military hardware that it was apparently comfortable leaving in Bashar al-Assad’s hands. But the bigger concern is surely the invasion, which has taken the 1974 buffer zone established along the occupied Golan and appears to have moved even beyond that territory. Israeli leaders say they need to control the buffer zone to protect the Golan, which was itself a buffer zone when the Israelis seized it in 1967 until they decided it was actually an integral part of Israel. If they decide that the new buffer zone protecting the old buffer zone is also part of Israel, one assumes they’ll need to seize another new buffer zone to protect that. Lather, rinse, repeat. Maybe eventually they’ll get to Tokyo.
Syria’s “White Helmets” civil defense organization announced on Tuesday that it has ended its search of Damascus’s Sednaya prison facility. Thousands of people have descended on Damascus in recent days to search for loved ones believed to have been held in that prison, and it sounds like most of them have come away disappointed. Expectations were that a search of the facility would uncover large hidden sections containing untold numbers of prisoners, but those expectations have more or less proven unfounded. Other detention facilities may yet be discovered—the White Helmets are petitioning the Russian government to push Assad (now in exile in Moscow) for more information—but there’s a strong possibility that many of those thought to be held at Sednaya were executed or otherwise died in custody.
Amwaj’s Ali Hashem has written an account of the regional machinations that attended Assad’s final days in power, particularly around the Iranian and Hezbollah dimensions. It includes claims that Iranian officials were growing frustrated over Assad’s flirtation with Gulf states and the US, which fed his inaction amid the “Axis of Resistance’s” conflict with Israel. I don’t know how much to make of that, but the upshot in Hashem’s piece is that, whatever their feelings about Assad, Iranian and Hezbollah officials saw that saving him would require expending more resources than they were willing or able to expend. Cutting through the other details, that seems to be the salient point.
As for Assad’s other primary backer, Russia, its military is at least for the time being still holding on to its main Syrian military outposts, a naval facility in Tartus and Hmeimim airbase. Their long-term future will have to be determined in negotiations between Moscow and the new Syrian government, whatever that turns out to be. Responsible Statecraft’s Anatol Lieven suggests that they should be able to work out a deal that allows Russia to maintain those bases in return for food, fuel, and/or other Russian products. Allowing Russia to remain in those bases, both located in areas that are central to Syria’s Alawite and Christian communities, might also demonstrate HTS’s tolerance for minority communities.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
A new report from the Israeli human rights group B’Tselem finds that Israeli soldiers in the West Bank are now dishing out random acts of violence to Palestinians:
Random detentions, abuse, and humiliation by Israeli soldiers without cause: this is what daily life has looked like for Palestinians in the occupied West Bank city of Hebron in recent months, according to testimonies gathered by the human rights group B’Tselem and published in a new report last week.
While most Palestinian armed resistance in the West Bank is concentrated in the northern cities of Jenin, Tulkarem, and Nablus, Israeli soldiers seem to have decided that, after October 7, all Palestinians are Hamas supporters — and nobody is innocent.
“It appears that Palestinian residents of Hebron may, at any moment, fall victim to brutal violence openly inflicted on them as they go about their daily affairs,” the report explains. “The victims were chosen randomly, with no connection to their actions.”
None of the 25 Palestinians who testified to B’Tselem had participated in violent activities, or even joined any recent non-violent protests. Only two of them were actually arrested and taken away to military facilities, and both were later released without any charges filed. The remaining 23 were freed after the abuse ended.
IDF airstrikes in Gaza killed at least 34 people overnight and into Tuesday, including at least 25 in one strike in Beit Hanoun. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs says that the IDF has now been blocking humanitarian aid from Beit Hanoun and other parts of northern Gaza for 66 days, since it began besieging those areas on October 6. And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finally took the stand in his own corruption trial on Tuesday. From what I can tell he used his testimony mostly to gripe about the indignity of being prosecuted. Prior to testifying Netanyahu told reporters that he’s been eagerly awaiting his chance to rebut the charges against him, which is an odd thing to say given that he and his attorneys have repeatedly argued that the case should be delayed for political reasons.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
The Russian Duma approved a bill on Tuesday that would authorize the government to lift the terrorist designation it has placed on the Afghan Taliban. This is significant insofar as it could be the first step toward Moscow recognizing the Taliban-led Afghan government. Several countries have established relations with that government at some level but none has gone so far as to formally extend diplomatic recognition to it. Between commercial interests and possibly a desire to go after the Islamic State Khorasan group, which is based in Afghanistan and has committed terrorist attacks in Russia, the Russian government may see recognition as an attractive option.
CHINA
The Chinese government announced on Tuesday that it’s investigating the US chip manufacturer Nvidia for alleged violations of antimonopoly laws. Presumably this is a retaliation for new export controls that the US Commerce Department imposed against scores of Chinese firms last week. Beijing already imposed restrictions on mineral exports to the US in response to those new export controls. Interestingly the US government is also investigating Nvidia for antimonopoly violations, which is the kind of thing that can happen when you monopolize the chip industry. But it’s unclear what effect a Chinese investigation might have on the company, whose Chinese operations are already restricted.
SOUTH KOREA
South Korean authorities have arrested former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun over his role in encouraging President Yoon Suk-yeol to attempt a self-coup last week. In addition to the impeachment vote that Yoon survived over the weekend there are now open investigations into him and some of his senior officials (or ex-officials, in Kim’s case) over whether his declaration of martial law and attempt to arrest members of parliament rises to the level of rebellion against the South Korean state. Kim reportedly gave orders to the South Korean military to prevent legislators from assembling to overturn Yoon’s martial law order, but even more disturbingly Hankyoreh is reporting that he considered ordering an attack on North Korea as a prelude to and justification for imposing martial law. Such a strike would legally have met the threshold for martial law, but it also surely would have started a war.
AFRICA
SUDAN
A barrel bomb attack killed more than 100 people in the North Darfur town of Kabkabiya on Monday, according to the Al-Fashir Resistance Committee. This attack is consistent with past strikes by the Sudanese military on areas under Rapid Support Forces control though military officials have denied responsibility. On Tuesday, RSF shelling in the city of Omdurman killed at least 65 people and left hundreds more wounded according to state officials.
NIGER
AFP is reporting that Boko Haram fighters killed 14 fishermen in southeastern Niger’s Diffa region on Sunday. All were Nigerian nationals who had fled across the border to escape jihadist violence. Both groups regularly slaughter civilians whom they accuse of collaborating with government security forces.
CHAD
The French military has begun pulling its assets out of Chad, following the Chadian government’s announcement that it has cancelled its military cooperation agreement with Paris. The scope of that decision still hasn’t been completely determined so there is some possibility that France will maintain some military presence in Chad, albeit one that is smaller than its current presence.
SOMALIA
Semafor’s Yinka Adegoke is reporting that the forthcoming Trump administration may recognize the independence of the Somaliland region. I did not know this, but apparently Somaliland recognition is a hot topic in right-wing think tank circles. Mostly this is a backlash to the Biden administration’s “One Somalia” policy, which reversed the previous US approach of dealing with Somaliland as de facto independent without formal recognition. But increasingly there’s also a sense that recognizing Somaliland would give the US a reliable and relatively stable (especially compared with the rest of Somalia) perch in the Horn of Africa that would allow it to compete with China’s growing presence in neighboring Djibouti.
Realistically Somaliland is extremely unlikely to ever come back under the actual control of the federal Somali government in Mogadishu, so one could argue that recognizing its independence is just acknowledging reality. However, the Somali government has shown a willingness to accommodate de facto Somaliland independence while drawing a red line at de jure Somaliland independence. Tensions in the region are already high over the mere possibility that Ethiopia might recognize Somaliland independence. Recognition from the US might tip what is currently a diplomatic confrontation into a military one. That would not be particularly helpful to US interests in the region.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
Western sanctions against Russia haven’t achieved…well, much of anything really, but according to The Washington Post Russian tycoons are still worried about their long-term effect:
When Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed an annual big-business gathering this month, he could not help but crow about how Western sanctions against the economy had failed.
“The task was to deal Russia a strategic blow … to weaken industry, finance and services in our country,” Putin said at the VTB investment conference, pointing out that economic growth in Russia would reach 4 percent this year, far outstripping rates in Europe. “It is clear that these plans have collapsed.”
But despite the polite applause that greeted the Russian president, tension has been breaking out into the open among the Russian elite over the mounting cost of sanctions on the economy. Executives from major businesses have been warning in growing numbers that central bank interest rate hikes to combat rampant inflation — caused by sanctions and Putin’s wartime spending spree — could bring the economy to a halt next year.
There could be a rash of bankruptcies, including in Russia’s strategically sensitive military industry, where the boom in production fueling Russia’s war in Ukraine is forecast to slow next year, the executives have said. The result could be that Russia would no longer be able to replenish the equipment being lost on the battlefield at such high rates.
Even President-elect Donald Trump noted in a post on his Truth Social network this weekend about the shocking overthrow of the Kremlin’s ally in Syria, Bashar al-Assad, that Russia had been weakened partly because of “a bad economy.”
UKRAINE
Speaking of matters of high finance, Reuters reported on Tuesday that the Biden administration has transferred $20 billion in loan proceeds “to a World Bank intermediary” tasked with providing “economic and financial aid” to Ukraine. This is the US portion of the $50 billion overall loan that G7 nations pledged to Ukraine back in October, secured with the interest accrued by the $300 billion or so in Russian assets currently frozen in Western financial institutions. The European Union is arranging another $20 billion while the remaining $10 billion is divvied up by the UK, Canada, and Japan.
AMERICAS
BRAZIL
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva underwent “unplanned surgery for a brain bleed” on Tuesday, according to doctors at the Hospital Sírio-Libanês in São Paulo. Apparently he’s still been suffering from the effects of a fall he took back in October, but those same doctors insist that he should be back to work next week. Centrist Geraldo Alckmin is Lula’s vice president, by the by.
UNITED STATES
Finally, Responsible Statecraft’s Branko Marcetic looks at the cast of horribles who will be making foreign policy when Trump returns to office next month:
On the campaign trail, Donald Trump promised a very different foreign policy from business as usual in Washington.
He said he would prioritize peace over “victory” in the escalating war in Ukraine, pull the United States back from foreign entanglements to focus on domestic problems, and generally oversee a period of prolonged peace, instead of the cycle of endless Great Power conflict we seem trapped in.
Yet if personnel is policy, as the saying goes, then Trump’s presidency will be far more in line with his Democratic predecessor’s foreign policy than with the vision he laid out over the past year. So far, his National Security Council picks have been a series of hawks with a history of opposing diplomacy and the end of U.S. wars, as well as favoring a more aggressive posture toward China, including intervening in a possible war over Taiwan.