World roundup: August 5 2024

Stories from Israel-Palestine, Russia, Colombia, and elsewhere

TODAY IN HISTORY

August 5, 1571: The Cypriot city of Famagusta surrenders to the Ottomans, ending a nearly 11 month siege. As the final Venetian-held city on Cyprus, Famagusta’s surrender meant the total Ottoman conquest of the island. What was supposed to be a peaceful handover turned violent when the Ottoman commander, Lala Mustafa Pasha, abruptly had Venetian commander Marco Antonio Bragadin mutilated and taken into custody (and ultimately executed a couple of days later) and then unleashed his soldiers on the residents of the city. It’s unclear why Mustafa did this—he argued that Bragadin had executed his own Ottoman prisoners and murdered a group of Muslim pilgrims, but it may be that Mustafa was letting out some pent up frustration that such a small garrison was able to hold off and embarrass his much larger army for so long. The siege prompted the formation of a new “Holy League” alliance that eventually defeated the Ottomans at the Battle of Lepanto, though that took place after Famagusta fell.

August 5, 1772: Representatives of the Habsburg monarchy, Prussia, and Russia sign three bilateral agreements granting each of them the right to seize parts of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. This “First Partition of Poland” was largely the brainchild of Prussian King Frederick II (“the Great”). He wanted to forestall a potential war between the Habsburgs and the Russians, whose growing political domination of Poland and military domination of the Ottomans threatened Habsburg interests and the European balance of power. The Commonwealth was helpless to do anything about the partition (a rump Sejm eventually ratified it under extreme pressure), and as far as the other European powers were concerned it was preferable to the alternatives (France in particular supported the partition in hopes it would delay further Russian aggression toward the Ottomans). This was the first of three partitions (the others took place in 1792 and 1795) that eventually erased the Commonwealth from existence.

INTERNATIONAL

You may have noticed that stock markets around the world had a bit of a panic attack on Monday. It seems an unexpectedly poor US jobs report released on Friday has sparked fears of a recession, though The Washington Post is cautioning not to read too much into the market collapse yet:

All three major stock indexes fell Monday, the Nasdaq Composite by 3.4 percent, the S&P 500 by 3 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 2.6 percent, as investors moved money out of equities and into bonds. Global markets had also reeled, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 plunging 12 percent, its largest one-day drop in almost 40 years, after an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan last week.

Although there’s a chance the turbulence could lead to a self-fulfilling economic slowdown, analysts and economists say it’s too soon to panic. The economy, by most measures, is still in solid shape. Americans are continuing to spend, the service sector is growing, and the stock market remains up for the year, not too far off the all-time highs it set recently.

“This is not the recession train; it’s just a good old-fashioned market panic,” said Joe Brusuelas, principal and chief economist for RSM US. “This is not a D.C.-inspired event, about a slowing job market or the Fed being behind the curve. It’s about a larger regime change, where investors are adjusting to the end of easy money globally.”

The aforementioned Bank of Japan rate hike involved decision to raise interest rates above 0% for the first time since October 2010. That seems to have contributed to a rise in the yen’s value and a sell off of tech stocks. A quick perusal of my bank account will demonstrate that this is definitely not my area, but my sense is things need to get worse before we’ll be in serious trouble. Indeed, there are indications that Japan’s Nikkei index is recovering a bit in early Tuesday trading.

MIDDLE EAST

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

Haaretz is reporting, based on “a senior Israeli source,” that the Biden administration may attempt to unlock stalled ceasefire negotiations by giving the Israeli government a written assurance that it will be able to resume its massacre in Gaza after the initial phase of an agreement. The lack of such an assurance has reportedly become Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s newest excuse for blocking a deal. The Biden administration has to date been hesitant to provide such a document until there’s an agreement in place, probably because it is tantamount to an admission that Netanyahu will not participate in good faith in any negotiations beyond that initial phase. If the administration gives way on this point there’s every reason to assume that Netanyahu will immediately make it public in an attempt to drive Hamas away from the negotiating table (assuming the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh hasn’t already done that). The Israeli leader’s goal still seems to be preventing a ceasefire in a way that allows him to blame Hamas for the talks’ failure.