World roundup: August 4-5 2025

Stories from Israel-Palestine, Ethiopia, Russia, and elsewhere

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TODAY IN HISTORY

August 4, 1578: Portuguese King Sebastian I’s attempt to intervene in a Moroccan succession crisis meets a crushing defeat at the Battle of Alcácer Quibir near the then-Portuguese city of Ceuta. The young Sebastian was killed (technically disappeared but he never reappeared), and since he was too young to have fathered an heir this outcome wound up sparking another succession crisis back in Portugal. The eventual result was the seizure of the Portuguese throne by Spanish King Philip II and the relatively brief “Iberian Union,” which broke apart in 1640 but is the reason why Ceuta is today Spanish rather than Portuguese.

August 4, 1791: The Treaty of Sistova ends the Austrian-Ottoman War of 1787-1791. This rather unremarkable treaty, ending a rather unremarkable war (the Ottomans lost a little territory, but that’s it), turned out to be quite remarkable in hindsight because it marked the end of the long (265 year) series of Ottoman-Habsburg conflicts. Austria’s attentions turned west, due to the French Revolution, and later toward Prussia, while Russia became the Ottomans’ main adversary moving forward.

August 5, 1571: The Cypriot city of Famagusta surrenders to the Ottomans, ending a nearly 11 month siege. As the final Venetian-held city on Cyprus, Famagusta’s surrender meant the total Ottoman conquest of the island. What was supposed to be a peaceful handover turned violent when the Ottoman commander, Lala Mustafa Pasha, abruptly had Venetian commander Marco Antonio Bragadin mutilated and taken into custody (and ultimately executed a couple of days later) and then unleashed his soldiers on the residents of the city. The siege prompted the formation of a new “Holy League” alliance that eventually defeated the Ottomans at the Battle of Lepanto, though that took place after Famagusta fell.

August 5, 1772: Representatives of the Habsburg monarchy, Prussia, and Russia sign three bilateral agreements granting each of them the right to seize parts of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. This “First Partition of Poland” was largely the brainchild of Prussian King Frederick II (“the Great”), who wanted to forestall a potential war between the Habsburgs and the Russians. The Commonwealth was powerless to stop the partition and the other European powers viewed it as preferable to the alternatives. This was the first of three partitions (the others took place in 1792 and 1795) that eventually erased the Commonwealth from existence.

Polish painter Jan Matejko’s 1866 Rejtan, or the Fall of Poland depicts Polish nobleman Tadeusz Rejtan’s (lower right) attempt to physically block members of the Polish-Lithuanian Sejm from leaving their parliamentary chamber to ratify the partition (Wikimedia Commons)

MIDDLE EAST

SYRIA

The Syrian Democratic Forces group claimed on Monday that four of its outposts in northern Syria’s Aleppo province had come under attack by government security forces. I haven’t seen any indication as to casualties but this seems like another blow (in quick succession) to the process of integrating the SDF into the Syrian state.

LEBANON

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced on Tuesday that his cabinet has ordered the Lebanese army to devise “an implementation plan to restrict weapons” to state security forces by the end of 2025. I note this because, if the Lebanese army actually attempts to follow through on whatever plan it devises, this decision may wind up being historically significant (and possibly not in a positive sense). Hezbollah, which will be the main target of any effort to monopolize the capacity for violence in Lebanese state institutions, has already indicated that it will not disarm until its leaders believe that doing so won’t ultimately benefit Israel.

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

Multiple Israeli outlets reported on Monday that Benjamin Netanyahu has decided to resolve the current impasse in ceasefire negotiations by going ahead with a full military occupation of Gaza. The Israeli prime minister was scheduled to hold a war cabinet session on Tuesday to discuss “next steps” but I haven’t yet seen any reporting as to how that meeting went or what final decisions might have been taken. Prior to the meeting he expressed his intention to “complete the defeat of the enemy” but that’s vague enough to mean anything or nothing.

The prospect of a full Israeli takeover of the territory, with civilians concentrated in one or more camps euphemistically called “humanitarian,” has been on the table for some time now but Netanyahu has yet to outright order it. If he continues to hesitate that might be because there seems to be very little appetite within the Israeli military (IDF) establishment to undertake such a plan. Serving officers can’t express that sentiment publicly, but a group of more than 600 former senior security officials sent a letter to Donald Trump over the weekend asking him to “stop the Gaza war” (presumably with or without Netanyahu’s approval) in order to save the remaining Israeli captives in the territory. I think it’s fair to assume that their views on this mirror those inside the active duty military and security hierarchies.

Elsewhere:

• While Netanyahu ponders taking over all of Gaza, Axios reported on Tuesday that Trump is planning to assume control over the humanitarian relief effort in the territory. He and his envoy, Steve Witkoff, apparently discussed the idea on Monday after Witkoff had returned to the US from his visit to Israel late last week. It is unclear what specifically this would entail or how well it would mesh with Netanyahu’s military plan, and the notion that it would represent an improvement over the current humanitarian situation in Gaza rests on the somewhat dubious claim that Trump personally gives a shit whether or not Palestinian children are starving to death. I’m skeptical of that, but in any case it seems pretty clear that the situation cannot get worse than it is now.

• This flurry of activity seems primarily motivated not by concern over Palestinian children but over adult Israeli captives, whose suffering Netanyahu has now weaponized to deflect attention from the suffering he’s inflicting on Gaza’s civilian population. It’s all the same suffering of course—the captives are starving just like everyone else in the territory—and Netanyahu’s government is primarily to blame. There are also serious concerns about the fate of the captives under an occupation scenario, since that will require escalating IDF attacks throughout the territory including in areas where those captives might be held.

• The Israeli military’s Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) office said on Tuesday that it “will allow gradual and controlled entry of goods to Gaza through local merchants” as another way to alleviate starvation. Logistically it’s difficult to see how this could work under open combat but the point may be the announcement itself rather than its efficacy. The Israeli government wants to be able to say that it’s doing something to address Western concerns over the humanitarian catastrophe.

• On the subject of logistics, the AP reported on Tuesday that aid truck drivers in Gaza are finding it increasingly difficult to carry out their already difficult task. They are frequently accosted either by mobs of desperate people or one of the criminal gangs that have expanded their activities in the security vacuum created by the Israeli campaign, the latter intending to steal the aid and sell it at exorbitant prices. Israeli soldiers often open fire on those mobs and in some cases drivers have been killed.

IRAN

According to Foreign Policy’s Anchal Vohra, further negotiations around the future of Iran’s nuclear program may hinge on the three small Persian Gulf islands whose ownership is disputed by Iran and the UAE. As you may know, the Iranian military seized Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunb islands, all located at the western end of the Strait of Hormuz, in late 1971 as Britain was ending its protectorate over the emirates that would comprise the UAE. The two countries have never managed to agree on their status despite occasional proposals for some sort of joint administration. Abu Musa is home to a small population while the Tunbs are uninhabited. All have an Iranian military presence.

The islands’ disputed status could make them an ideal location for a proposed “regional consortium” for enriching uranium, since from one perspective the consortium’s facilities would be established on Iranian soil, as Tehran has demanded, while from another perspective they’d be established outside of Iran, as the US has demanded. Establishing the consortium on those islands would also “internationalize” them to some degree, reducing concern that the Iranian military could use them to effectively close the strait in wartime. This all seems too clever to work and it sounds like the Iranians reacted skeptically when the idea was broached in earlier talks, insisting that the enrichment facilities must be located on definitively Iranian territory in order to ease Tehran’s concerns about giving up its domestic enrichment program. Still it’s an interesting idea that could theoretically be part of the discussion if negotiations resume.

ASIA

AZERBAIJAN

Eurasianet reported on Tuesday, based on “unconfirmed reports,” that Donald Trump is planning to bring Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to the White House on Friday. Two anonymous “senior White House officials” later confirmed these reports to The Washington Post. The two leaders will meet individually with Trump and then the whole Gang will “make a joint announcement” regarding the ongoing Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process. The Trump administration has tried to insert itself into that process, and those senior US officials are saying that there’s at least some possibility that this “joint announcement” will actually be a full “peace agreement.” The Armenian and Azerbaijani governments reached a vague peace agreement in principle earlier this year but have since made virtually no progress toward a fleshed out deal.

AFGHANISTAN

The United Nations World Food Program warned on Monday that Afghanistan is experiencing “its sharpest-ever surge of child malnutrition” in the wake of substantial aid cuts—particularly from the US, which eliminated aid to Afghanistan earlier this year. That loss of funding has been exacerbated by the forced repatriation of hundreds of thousands of Afghan nationals from Iran and Pakistan in recent months. The WFP issued a call for $539 million in new funding to alleviate the crisis.

INDIA

Donald Trump threatened again on Tuesday to impose a significant tariff “penalty” on Indian products, on top of the 25 percent tariff he’s already levied, over New Delhi’s purchase of Russian oil. There is no indication that these threats are having any effect on Indian officials, who have characterized (farcically, let’s be fair) their purchase of Russian oil as a public service since it helps to keep the Russian oil in circulation and thus prevents an increase in global oil prices. More reasonably, Indian leaders seem irritated by the double standard whereby Trump is demanding that they stop buying Russian oil while the US and Europe are still purchasing billions of dollars worth of Russian energy and other products.

By the by, Ukrainian officials are now claiming that they’ve found Indian “components” in the wreckage of Russian attack drones, which given Trump’s current mood could make him more inclined to penalize New Delhi.

BANGLADESH

Tuesday marked the one year anniversary of former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s departure from the country in the face of mounting public protests. Her interim replacement, Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus, took the occasion to announce that he’s planning to hold the country’s first general election since that incident in February. Yunus had previously been targeting April, but there’s been a groundswell in favor of holding the vote prior to the start of Ramadan in mid-February so it would appear he’s decided to acquiesce to that.

CHINA

According to The Wall Street Journal, the Chinese government is continuing to throttle the critical minerals trade with respect to US military suppliers:

Earlier this year, as U.S.-China trade tensions soared, Beijing tightened the controls it places on the export of rare earths. While Beijing allowed them to start flowing after the Trump administration agreed in June to a series of trade concessions, China has maintained a lock on critical minerals for defense purposes. China supplies around 90% of the world’s rare earths and dominates the production of many other critical minerals.

As a result, one drone-parts manufacturer that supplies the U.S. military was forced to delay orders by up to two months while it searched for a non-Chinese source of magnets, which are assembled from rare earths.

Certain materials needed by the defense industry now go for five or more times what was typical before China’s recent mineral restrictions, according to industry traders. One company said it was recently offered samarium—an element needed to make magnets that can withstand the extreme temperatures of a jet-fighter engine—for 60 times the standard price. That is already driving the cost of defense systems higher, say suppliers and defense executives.

AFRICA

SUDAN

Sudan’s Emergency Lawyers activist group is accusing the Rapid Support Forces militant group of killing at least 14 civilians who were fleeing the besieged city of Al-Fashir on Saturday. Many more were wounded and/or captured by the paramilitaries. An act that would be condemnable under normal circumstances, this report if accurate is particularly troubling given that the RSF-installed governor of Sudan’s North Darfur state requested two days earlier that civilians leave the city and promised that those who did so would be safe. These civilians followed RSF instructions to head to the nearby village of Qarni and it was there that RSF fighters attacked them. The World Food Program has warned of an increasing risk of starvation for those people who remain trapped in Al-Fashir.

Sudan’s military government issued a statement on Monday accusing the UAE of procuring mercenaries to bolster the RSF’s ranks. According to its “irrefutable evidence,” the Emiratis have been hiring primarily Colombians, who have an international reputation for their mercenary work, but has also hired fighters from other parts of Africa. The UAE Foreign Ministry said in a statement that it “categorically rejects” the accusation, though it’s also rejected accusations regarding other forms of support for the RSF that are pretty well documented.

ETHIOPIA

New research into sexual violence during the 2020-2022 war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region finds that Ethiopian and Eritrean forces likely committed crimes against humanity:

Hundreds of health workers across Tigray have documented mass rape, sexual slavery, forced pregnancy and sexual torture of women and children by Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers, in systematic attacks that amount to crimes against humanity, a new report has found.

The research, compiled by Physicians for Human Rights and the Organization for Justice and Accountability in the Horn of Africa (OJAH), represents the most comprehensive documentation yet of weaponised sexual violence in Tigray. It reviewed medical records of more than 500 patients, surveys of 600 health workers, and in-depth interviews with doctors, nurses, psychiatrists and community leaders.

The authors outline evidence of systematic attacks designed to destroy the fertility of Tigrayan women and call for international bodies to investigate the crime of genocide.

Survivors have said that “soldiers expressed their desire to exterminate the Tigrayan ethnicity — either by destroying Tigrayan women’s reproductive organs, or forcing them to give birth to children of the rapist’s ethnicity.” That would certainly suggest the sort of intent needed for a charge of genocide.

RWANDA

The Trump administration has reached an agreement with the Rwandan government under which the latter will take in as many as 250 people trafficked by the former. The administration has been working to expand its roster of “third countries” willing to take in migrants who for whatever reason can’t or won’t be deported to their countries of origin but are instead being trafficked elsewhere. Rwanda has previously expressed its interest in being paid to accept such people, though a similar plan its government worked out with the UK collapsed on account of, well, its flagrant illegality. It is now the third African country, alongside Eswatini and South Sudan, to reach such an agreement with the Trump administration.

MOZAMBIQUE

The UN International Organization for Migration is estimating that resurgent jihadist violence in northern Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province displaced some 46,000 people over just a few days last month. It further estimates that 60 percent of the newly displaced are children. This latest wave of attacks stretched across three districts in the province between July 20 and July 28.

EUROPE

RUSSIA

The Russian government says it no longer plans to abide by its “self-imposed moratorium” on the deployment of intermediate range missiles that can carry nuclear payloads. Such weapons had previously been proscribed by the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, but the US withdrew from that accord during the first Trump administration while accusing Russia of violating it.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported on Tuesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin hasn’t reacted to Donald Trump’s recent ultimatum, which could see the US imposing new sanctions against Russia as soon as Friday unless Trump sees “progress” toward a peace deal in Ukraine, because he doesn’t believe that additional US sanctions can seriously impact the Russian economy. “Sources close to the Kremlin” argued that while Putin doesn’t want to alienate Trump and close off the possibility of improved relations with the US, those considerations are less important to him than his primary war aim—the complete seizure and occupation of the four mainland Ukrainian provinces that Russia claims to have annexed.

Russian forces are advancing in eastern Ukraine (they claimed the capture of another village in Dnipropetrovsk oblast on Tuesday) and that likely fuels Putin’s commitment to this aim. But if he’s really going to insist on taking all four of those provinces in their entirety then that strongly suggests that the war is going to continue for quite some time to come. In particular taking the rest of Kherson oblast, which would require the Russians to cross the Dnipro River, could be a tall order.

UKRAINE

Putin’s goal will be all the more difficult if the US continues to supply Ukraine with arms, which now appears to be happening. The Trump administration has reportedly sold $1 billion in weapons to various European NATO states under a plan whereby those states will ship those arms to Ukraine. Trump has been reluctant if not downright hostile to the idea of supplying weapons to Ukraine directly, but he’s clearly much more willing to sell those weapons to European governments, whose money he’s happy to take, which shifts the burden of supporting Ukraine onto them. Ukrainian and NATO officials have been putting together weapons packages valued at around $500 million apiece for submission to the Trump administration. How long European governments can—or will be willing to—keep this up remains to be seen.

AMERICAS

COLOMBIA

Colombian President Gustavo Petro on Tuesday accused the Peruvian government of “unilaterally” annexing the Amazon River island of Santa Rosa, after its Congress voted back in June to incorporate the island as a district in Peru’s Loreto province. Peru presently administers the island but it is the Colombian government’s position that because it was under water when the two countries negotiated their border its legal status is as yet undetermined, and further that its location places it on Colombia’s side of the Amazon border demarcation.

Elsewhere, a Colombian judge sentenced former President Álvaro Uribe to 12 years house arrest on Friday, following his conviction in a long-running trial over his ties to violent right-wing paramilitary groups extending back to his time as governor of Colombia’s Antioquia province. Uribe remains an influential figure on the Colombian political right and his conviction could have ramifications for next year’s general election. But of more immediate concern, the Trump administration has tried to insert itself into this case just as it’s trying to do with respect to the Jair Bolsonaro prosecution in Brazil. It may move to cut aid to Colombia or impose other penalties in response to the conviction.

UNITED STATES

Finally, TomDispatch’s Aviva Chomsky discusses the ongoing effort to define criticism of Israel as antisemitism:

The [International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s] definition [of antisemitism] itself appears relatively straightforward, even if it focuses on thought and speech rather than structures of racism: “Antisemitism is a certain perception of Jews, which may be expressed as hatred toward Jews. Rhetorical and physical manifestations of antisemitism are directed toward Jewish or non-Jewish individuals and/or their property, toward Jewish community institutions and religious facilities.”

What follows, however, is a confusing and contradictory amalgam of 11 “examples of antisemitism in public life,” six of which focus on political debate that raises questions about Zionism, Israel as an ethnostate, or Israel’s actions.

Creating legal avenues to suppress what would otherwise be protected political speech about Israel is a major reason that the IHRA and its allies have felt the need to turn their definition into law. And advocates for the legal adoption of that definition claim that it’s necessary because antisemitism is on the rise in this country. But the expansive and confusing examples of antisemitism that the definition relies on actually make it impossible to know whether such a statement is, in fact, accurate. The organizations that use the IHRA definition to track antisemitism won’t tell us whether what is on the rise is actually antisemitism or simply opposition to Israel and its increasingly unnerving actions in the Middle East.