World roundup: August 27 2024
World roundup: August 27 2024
Stories from Israel-Palestine, France, Mexico, and elsewhere
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TODAY IN HISTORY
August 27, 1883: The Krakatoa volcano erupts violently, virtually destroying the island (located in what is now Indonesia) and causing substantial loss of life. Days of volcanic activity culminated on August 27 with four explosions, each of which generated massive tsunamis and the third of which is regarded as perhaps the loudest sound in recorded history. The immediate effects of the eruption killed 36,417 people according to Dutch records. The eruption caused a volcanic winter and ejected so much sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere that it cooled (and darkened) the planet for the next five years.
August 27, 1896: Shortly after 9 AM local time, British forces invade the Zanzibar Sultanate over a succession dispute. Around 40 minutes later the Anglo-Zanzibar War was over and Britain’s man was on the throne. This conflict, the shortest war in recorded history, marks the point at which Britain’s protectorate over Zanzibar really took hold and the sultanate—founded when Zanzibar and Oman split into separate kingdoms in 1856—ceased to be an independent political entity in any meaningful sense.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The Israeli military (IDF) rescued an October 7 hostage in Gaza on Tuesday, a Bedouin man named Farhan al-Qadi. IDF soldiers appear to have stumbled upon him during a tunnel-clearing operation in southern Gaza, his captors nowhere to be found.
The United Nations is planning to begin its polio vaccination campaign in Gaza on Saturday, despite the absence of the ceasefire that is probably required to ensure the effort’s success. With that in mind, and with ceasefire talks having all but collapsed, The New Arab reported on Tuesday that negotiations are now focusing on a couple of short-term options. The less realistic of these is some sort of “partial agreement on the initial phase of the ceasefire” that promises only a prisoner exchange and temporary ceasefire while punting discussions of really thorny issues to a “phase two” negotiation that may not actually happen. More realistic may be the idea of “a humanitarian truce lasting between four to seven days to facilitate the distribution of polio vaccines and other essential aid.”
The Biden administration is, incredibly, still insisting that negotiations are on track to produce a full blown ceasefire. The reader can decide whether this is wishcasting or gaslighting at this point. White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Monday that this weekend’s negotiations hadn’t broken down without an agreement. In fact, they’d made so much progress, according to Kirby, that the principal negotiators thought it would be best to return to “working group” level discussions on the particular details. The talks right now are reportedly focusing on the identities and fates (exile, for example) of Palestinians who would be released in the prisoner exchange portion, which is swell but ignores the vast gulfs between Hamas and the Israelis on multiple other issues.
YEMEN
The US military said on Tuesday that it now sees indications that the Sounion, the Greek-flagged tanker that is still on fire after being attacked by the Houthis in the Red Sea last week, is leaking oil. It’s unclear how much or how quickly it’s leaking (or whether it actually is leaking, frankly, though of course I would never question the Pentagon’s trustworthiness). But there is no question that any effort to retrieve the vessel and tow it into port is going to be impossible unless the Houthis permit it.
IRAN
Former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has reportedly decided to resume his appointment as new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s vice president for strategic affairs, a gig he resigned earlier this month in frustration over Pezeshkian’s cabinet appointments. This is not hugely surprising, as Zarif has kind of a history of resigning things in a huff only to be talked out of it. This backtrack comes as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is signaling his openness to some sort of reboot of Zarif’s signature achievement, Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal. It remains to be seen whether Washington will have any interest in participating.
ASIA
MYANMAR
The International Crisis Group assesses the situation in Myanmar’s Rakhine state after recent reported attacks against the Rohingya community:
After restarting its fight for Rakhine State in late 2023, the Arakan Army is in the process of carving out a proto-state of over a million people on the Myanmar-Bangladesh border. Although the Myanmar military has countered with indiscriminate attacks and a blockade that is causing huge economic distress, the armed group, which draws support mainly from the state’s Rakhine Buddhist majority, has pushed on, reaching into northern townships where it is alleged to have attacked Muslim Rohingya civilians. Desperate to retain these areas and control of the border, the military has conscripted and collaborated with Rohingya and orchestrated the destruction of Rakhine homes. When the dust settles, the Arakan Army will likely emerge as Rakhine State’s de facto governing authority, and outside actors will have to decide how and whether to engage with it. To foster stability, the Arakan Army should mend relations with the Rohingya, support an independent investigation of alleged abuses, and reach out to Dhaka and donors, which should find ways to work with the group on shared humanitarian and security objectives.
In just a few months, the Arakan Army has created the largest area in Myanmar under the control of a non-state armed group – in terms of both size and population – and is now on the verge of securing almost all of Rakhine. The cost of its success has been high, not least for civilians in the state. Hundreds of thousands from both the Rakhine and Rohingya communities have been displaced. The regime carries out deadly airstrikes on a daily basis, and both it and the Arakan Army are credibly alleged to be committing serious abuses against civilians. In late May, in one of the worst atrocities since the 2021 coup, regime forces were accused of massacring scores of Rakhine civilians in a village on the outskirts of the state capital, Sittwe. More recently, the Arakan Army is widely reported to have been responsible for the deaths of as many as 200 Rohingya civilians while assaulting Maungdaw town in the northern part of the state.
CHINA
Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, is in China for the next three days. As his opening act, he met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Tuesday. Foreign Policy’s Lili Pike reports that Sullivan isn’t expected to negotiate any big breakthroughs in US-Chinese relations—indeed, the White House last week characterized his agenda as “clearing up misperceptions and avoiding this competition from veering into conflict,” which sounds like he’s mostly there to exchange pleasantries. One item that will probably be up for discussion is arranging one last summit between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping before the former heads off to the big executive mansion upstate. They could meet on the sidelines of the G20 and/or Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum meetings in November.
JAPAN
The Japanese Foreign Ministry summoned China’s ambassador in Tokyo to lodge a protest on Tuesday, one day after a Chinese military reconnaissance aircraft reportedly crossed into Japanese airspace. This is apparently the first time that’s ever happened. The Chinese Foreign Ministry denied any intention to violate Japanese airspace and said that the military is investigating the incident.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The “resistance committee” in the besieged Sudanese city of Al-Fashir is accusing the besieging Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group of killing at least 20 people and wounding 32 more in artillery strikes on the Abu Shouk displaced persons camp. It’s unclear when this shelling took place. Al-Fashir, the capital of North Darfur state, remains the last major city in the Darfur region that isn’t fully controlled by the RSF and that’s made it home to hundreds of thousands of people displaced by RSF violence from other parts of the region.
BURKINA FASO
According to Reuters, the death toll from Saturday’s jihadist attack on a commune in Burkina Faso’s Center-North region may be over 500, far higher than the 100 or so figure that had been reported previously. Hundreds more have reportedly been hospitalized. It’s also still not entirely certain that the Jamaʿat Nusrat al-Islam wa’l-Muslimin group was responsible for the attack, though JNIM is active in that locale. There’s been no claim of responsibility made as yet. One thing that has held up is initial reporting that Burkinabè security forces had been forcing local residents to dig defensive works when the jihadists attacked. The victims were caught in the open by attackers who may have taken them for government personnel or militia auxiliaries.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
International Atomic Energy Agency director Rafael Grossi visited Russia’s Kursk Nuclear Power Plant on Tuesday and came away warning about “the danger or possibility of a nuclear accident” related to the Ukrainian military’s invasion of Kursk oblast. Fighting is uncomfortably close to the facility, which apparently lacks the kind of shielding that might protect it from stray (or deliberate) fire. Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, have accused the Ukrainians of targeting the facility intentionally.
FRANCE
French President Emmanuel Macron reset negotiations on forming a new government back to square one on Monday when he unambiguously rejected the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) coalition’s prime minister candidate, economist Lucie Castets. Macron’s contention is that, since NFP does not hold a parliamentary majority and has secured no coalition agreement from any non-NFP parties, Castets’ government would be compromised from the start. It’s unclear whether that’s really Macron’s call to make, though as president he does ultimately have the power to make the PM nomination.
If Macron is hoping to force the more moderate elements of the NFP, the Green and Socialist parties, to split from the rest of the coalition and support a government led by his centrist Ensemble coalition, he may be getting something of a reality check. Both the Greens and the Socialists announced on Tuesday that they’re refusing to participate in any further negotiations with Macron—Green leader Marine Tondelier characterized them as “sham consultations with a president who doesn't listen anyway,” which sounds pretty definitive. Macron is unlikely to choose a far right PM, who at any rate would have less parliamentary support than the NFP candidate, and that narrows his options to forming a minority Ensemble government and hoping for the best. That scenario could result in another snap election in fairly short order.
AMERICAS
MEXICO
Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador announced on Tuesday that he’s “paused” his government’s relationships with the US and Canadian embassies in Mexico City over their governments’ criticisms of his proposed judicial reform plan. The reason I put “paused” in quotes is because AMLO doesn’t appear to have explained what it means, exactly, though it sounds like he’s going to freeze out the ambassadors without going so far as to expel them from the country. AMLO’s plan calls for, among other things, judicial elections, an idea that US ambassador Ken Salazar criticized because it would deprive Mexicans of the benefits of a US-style judiciary in which most of the judges are…well, OK, they’re elected too, but at the federal level they get lifetime appointments and as a result they’re ethically above reproach. Anyway, AMLO got this crazy idea that Salazar and the US government might be trying to interfere with Mexican domestic affairs (can you imagine?) and here we are.
The AP is also suggesting that AMLO is irritated at the recent US arrest of Sinaloa cartel boss Ismael Zambada, who was effectively abducted out of Mexico last month and delivered to US authorities by fellow cartel bigwig Joaquín Guzmán López. US officials have denied any involvement in or foreknowledge of that abduction, but I’m not sure AMLO believes them.
UNITED STATES
Finally, in a roundtable discussion of the skyrocketing US military budget for Inkstick, Win Without War’s Sofia Guerra offers an idea for bringing costs under control:
Many budgetary mechanisms and structural issues contribute to the Pentagon budget’s march toward an untenable $1 trillion. Sustainable peace and security will require confronting the political drivers of this trajectory. Skyrocketing expenditures are the result of a tangled web of relationships between the private sector, Congress, and the executive branch. Within those relationships, perverse incentives, parochial concerns, and opportunities to profit on the public dime pervade.
Unfunded priorities lists (UPLs) are a perfect example of how the broken structure of the budgeting process drives up spending. Since 2016, military leaders have been required by law to submit letters to Congress requesting funding for all the programs they would pursue if only they had the money. For example, the Army nixed the M1 Abrams tank from the President’s final budget request multiple times, only for Congress to fund it anyway because the Army puts it on its UPL wishlist. The wishlists give members of Congress the opportunity to play Santa, funding weapons or munitions programs that bring federal dollars to their districts and build political clout outside of any executive branch process for determining the actual defense value of those programs.
Allowing military commands and services to wish for new weapons systems undermines the president’s national security planning goals, which are meant to be the main guide behind our civilian-led security policy. By empowering service-specific tunnel vision, UPLs facilitate an unbalanced military and stoke interservice rivalry, driving weapons manufacturer profits and preserving the jobs of acquisitions directors. UPLs enable Pentagon bureaucrats to prioritize avoiding the fate of former F-35 Program Director Maj. Gen. David Heinz—who was seen as having been fired for pushing a costly new engine program against the administration’s wishes—above executing the commander-in-chief’s vision.