World roundup: August 10-11 2024
World roundup: August 10-11 2024
Stories from Israel-Palestine, Myanmar, Russia, and elsewhere
You’re reading the web version of Foreign Exchanges. If you’d like to get it delivered straight to your inbox, sign up today:
THIS WEEKEND IN HISTORY
August 10, 1270: Amhara leader Yekuno Amlak is crowned “Emperor of Ethiopia” under the regal name Tesfa Iyasus, having led a rebellion that overthrew the ruling Zagwe dynasty. Yekuno Amlak founded the Solomonic dynasty, so called because it claimed descent (absent any credible evidence) from the biblical Israelite King Solomon and the Queen of Sheba. The “House of Solomon” expanded Ethiopia’s borders to and beyond those of the present day nation, and ruled the empire until the military coup that ousted Emperor Haile Selassie in 1974.
August 10, 1920: The Ottoman Empire signs the Treaty of Sèvres, formally withdrawing from World War I and surrendering to the Allied Powers. The terms, which required the empire to give up not only all of its Arab territory but most of its Anatolian territory as well, were so lopsided that they quickly sparked the Turkish War of Independence. The new Republic of Turkey emerged victorious from that war, and the terms of the ensuing 1923 Treaty of Lausanne superseded Sèvres.
August 11, 1473: The Battle of Otlukbeli
August 11, 1492: A papal enclave, the first ever held in the Sistine Chapel, elects Cardinal Rodrigo de Borja as Pope Alexander VI. Borja effectively bought the office, promising Cardinal Ascanio Sforza the position of vice-chancellor and allegedly distributing a variety of other goodies to him and several other cardinals in exchange for their support. Alexander was the patriarch of the infamous Borgia family, whose corruption and depravity (at least some of it exaggerated by their detractors, many of whom were as offended by Borja’s Spanish roots as by any of his family’s alleged crimes) became the stuff of legend.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
Palestinian officials are reporting that an early morning Israeli airstrike on another school-turned-shelter in Gaza killed some 100 or more people on Saturday. The Israeli military (IDF) has acknowledged the strike but claims the school was being used as a Hamas headquarters—there are apparently an infinite number of these—and is rejecting the Palestinian casualty count. Israeli officials insist they used (US-made, of course) “precision munitions,” which is sort of beside the point as the Palestinians are saying the strike precisely targeted a large crowd of civilians at morning prayer. The strike drew widespread international condemnation and even a bit of mild scolding from the Biden administration, though US officials were careful to include the usual bromides about Israel’s right to defend itself and Hamas’s alleged use of civilian shields. Israeli officials were so cowed by the US blowback that they announced an expansion of their latest ground operation in Khan Younis, which has already displaced somewhere around 75,000 people.
Elsewhere:
Late Friday the Biden administration announced the release of some $3.5 billion in new military aid for Israel. This is the first tranche of the $14.5 billion the administration devoted to Israel in the supplemental military funding package that Congress passed in April, so it’s not exactly a surprise, but it’s important to note this before we get to our next item.
An “Israeli source” has told Haaretz that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar “is interested” in a ceasefire deal. That same source said that “the question is whether [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu wants it, or will he adhere to [National Security Minister Itamar] Ben-Gvir's ultimatum, who promised to dissolve the government” if Netanyahu agrees to stop killing Palestinians. The three mediators in the negotiating process—Qatar and Egypt on behalf of Hamas, and the US on behalf of Israel—are racing to get some sort of agreement done in hopes that it will forestall an Iranian attack on Israel. You’ve probably already seen the problem here, but for the sake of thoroughness let’s lay it out. Netanyahu is the main obstacle to a ceasefire and the Biden administration, by handing him another $3.5 billion worth of weapons, just sacrificed its best leverage to force him into an agreement. I’ll leave it up to the reader to decide whether it did so intentionally, unintentionally/stupidly, or a bit of both.
A related scoop from Haaretz: the administration’s level of frustration with the man to whom it just gave $3.5 billion in weapons “is reaching the point where Netanyahu's behavior [if he once again blocks a deal] would result in the White House publicly accusing him of harming the talks and preventing the release of the hostages.” Oh my god, a public accusation???!?!? Are they sure that won’t be going too far????
Hamas released a statement on Sunday that’s being misinterpreted (intentionally, perhaps) as a rejection of further ceasefire talks. The statement doesn’t reject negotiations but it does insist on using the framework that Hamas accepted back in May as the starting point rather than beginning from scratch. The Israelis already rejected that framework so it may be a non-starter for them.
Take this for whatever it’s worth but Axios, citing “two sources with direct knowledge of the issue,” is reporting that the Israeli intelligence community now believes that an Iranian attack could be coming “within days” and quite possibility before the August 15 date that the US and company have set for new ceasefire talks. This assessment has apparently changed in just the past couple of days and is based on unspecified “Iranian military preparations.” That said, the Israelis are also saying that Tehran hasn’t yet made a final decision to attack.
The IDF claims it’s working with UNICEF and the World Health Organization to provide vaccines to Palestinians in Gaza, now that it’s turned the territory into a giant petri dish. Israeli officials insist that the spread of epidemic disease in Gaza is not a threat to Israel, but let’s just say I find it hard to believe that they want to vaccinate the same population they’re currently depriving of food and water for purely altruistic reasons. It’s hard to see how any major vaccination program could be implemented absent a ceasefire anyway.
SYRIA
A drone strike killed at least five Iranian-aligned militia fighters near the Iraqi border in eastern Syria on Sunday, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. This was probably an Israeli attack. The US can’t be ruled out either, but the Pentagon generally takes responsibility for its Syrian strikes (in part to explain its justification) while the IDF typically does not, and so far there’s been no claim of responsibility.
LEBANON
Hezbollah says that an Israeli drone strike killed two of its fighters in southern Lebanon on Sunday. Another IDF attack reportedly killed at least two Syrian nationals, the identities of whom are unclear.
IRAN
New Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian rolled out his new cabinet over the weekend, including the expected appointment of Abbas Araqchi as his foreign minister. Araqchi previously served as deputy FM and Iran’s lead negotiator on the 2015 nuclear deal, so his resume lends itself toward the idea the Pezeshkian wants to re-engage diplomatically with the West. He may have a difficult confirmation process in the hardline Iranian parliament, but it would be at least a mild surprise if he were not ultimately confirmed.
Elsewhere, the Trump campaign is claiming that its internal communications have been hacked and is pinning blame on the Iranian government. This is certainly not out of the question, and I would probably have more thoughts about it if I cared in the slightest what happens to Donald Trump or his campaign emails.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
A bombing in a western Kabul neighborhood killed at least one person and wounded ten others on Sunday. That part of the city is predominantly Shiʿa and thus frequently targeted by Islamic State, which was almost certainly responsible in this case.
UPDATE: IS has claimed responsibility for this bombing.
INDIA
The Indian military said on Sunday that two of its soldiers were killed in fighting with militants in the Kashmiri district of Anantnag. Details beyond that are unclear.
MYANMAR
Scores of Rohingya civilians appear to have been killed in a drone strike in Myanmar’s Rakhine state that took place on Monday. Reuters, citing “three witnesses,” reported on Saturday that the Arakan Army rebel group attacked a large group of Rohingya who were attempting to cross the border into Bangladesh. The rebels are denying involvement, blaming the Myamnar military instead. There’s no confirmation of the number of casualties but claims of the death toll range from around 70 to over 200. The Rohingya are routinely brutalized by both the Arakan Army and the Myanmar military and refugees frequently attempt to flee either over the border to Bangladesh or by sea. “Dozens” of Rohingya in another group of refugees also died on Monday when the boats they were using sank in the Bay of Bengal.
PHILIPPINES
Philippine military chief of staff Romeo Brawner on Saturday accused the Chinese Air Force of engaging in “dangerous” maneuvers near a Philippine aircraft flying over the disputed South China Sea. This incident apparently took place on Thursday and involved two Chinese jets buzzing and launching flares at a Philippine light transport plane. Chinese authorities are claiming that the Philippine plane crossed into Chinese airspace over the Scarborough Shoal—the problem here being that Manila doesn’t recognize the shoal or its airspace as belonging to China. The Chinese military insists that its aircraft engaged in a “professional, standardized, legitimate, and justified” operation to force the Philippine plane’s departure. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos called the Chinese actions “illegal and reckless” on Sunday.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The Sudanese military and US government have been “consulting” since Friday over whether or not the former will attend the latter’s planned Sudanese ceasefire talks on Wednesday. According to Reuters those consultations ended on Sunday without a commitment from the military to participate. The military had previously agreed to attend the talks but pulled out in response to a July 31 drone strike that it’s blamed on the Rapid Support Forces group—though it’s still unclear whether the RSF was actually involved in that incident.
SOMALIA
Representatives of the Somali and Ethiopian governments will meet in Ankara on Monday to try to iron out their dispute over the breakaway Somaliland region. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan mediated an initial session with his Ethiopian and Somali counterparts on July 1 and has been working over the past couple of weeks to encourage them to reengage.
To recap, the Ethiopian government negotiated an agreement earlier this year with the secessionist Somaliland administration to lease a portion of the region’s Red Sea coastline, giving it much coveted sea access in return for recognition of Somaliland’s independence. The Somali government unsurprisingly objected to that arrangement and has suggested more than once that it would view such recognition as a casus belli. These talks are supposed to find a way for Ethiopia to secure its sea access without violating what the Somali government regards as its territorial sovereignty. The Turks, who have solid relations with both countries, view this mediation as an opportunity to boost their international prestige.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
The Allied Democratic Forces militant group attacked two villages in the eastern DRC’s North Kivu province on Saturday morning, killing at least 18 people at last count with 14 people still believed to be missing. Also on Saturday ADF’s parent group, Islamic State Central Africa Province, claimed responsibility for attack on a village in neighboring Tshopo province that killed at least five people. If that’s true it would mark the first time ADF/ISCAP is known to have conducted an attack in that province. It’s unclear whether this incident was a one-off operation or reflects a significant expansion of the group’s territorial range.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky more or less claimed responsibility for the Ukrainian military’s invasion of Russia’s Kursk oblast on Saturday. He’d been playing coy since the operation began on Tuesday. In Russia, meanwhile, authorities announced new security measures in Kursk and two other border provinces, Belgorod and Bryansk, including the evacuation of some 76,000 people from parts of Kursk. AFP is reporting that “thousands” of Ukrainian soldiers are involved in what initially seemed like a raid but is clearly a major military operation. Details as to the course of the incursion are still hard to come by, but unconfirmed reports from Russian “military bloggers” have the Ukrainians pushing as far as 20 kilometers into the province and Ukrainian forces are close enough that the fighting is threatening the Kursk nuclear power plant, which is around 60 kilometers from the border.
UKRAINE
While the Kursk operation is getting more attention, it should be noted that the Russian military’s slow but steady advance through Ukraine’s Donetsk oblast is continuing unabated. In the long run that’s probably going to matter more than what the Ukrainians are currently doing in Russia.
SERBIA
Thousands of people have been protesting for several days in Belgrade and other parts of Serbia in opposition to a proposed lithium mining project near the western Serbian city of Loznica. They seem to think that the company contracted to carry out the project, the British-Australian firm Rio Tinto, will wreak havoc on the local environment, though frankly I have no idea where they’d come up with such a thought. This is the second time that public opposition has interfered with the Serbian government’s plans to exploit its lithium reserves, which are partially aimed at ingratiating Serbia with a European Union that is drooling over the prospect of tapping a relatively homegrown lithium source.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić on Sunday bizarrely accused the protesters of participating in a Western-organized “hybrid war” against the Serbian state. The logic here doesn’t hold up to scrutiny, given that Vučić has happily pledged the lithium to the EU. Even if Western governments might prefer to see Vučić and his government ousted on principle, they’d be taking the risk that whatever replaced him/it might take a more critical stance on the lithium project and its likely effects. But accusing the protesters of working on behalf of nefarious Western interests helps Vučić turn public opinion against them and justify whatever steps he takes to suppress them.
AMERICAS
UNITED STATES
Finally, at Foreign Affairs Justin Logan and Joshua Shifrinson make the case for a new US approach toward European security:
For decades, U.S. policy toward Europe stayed the same: Washington anchored itself to the continent via NATO and acted as the region’s main security provider while the European members of NATO accepted U.S. leadership. Today, however, much of the Republican Party has departed from this consensus, opting instead for a policy summed up by Donald Trump’s comments on “delinquent” NATO countries: “If they’re not going to pay, we’re not going to protect.” In other words, the United States may remain committed to Europe, but only if European states pay up. Democrats, for their part, have dug in deeper in response to this shift. President Joe Biden has affirmed the “sacred” Democratic commitment to European defense and trumpeted the admission of Finland and Sweden to NATO as a great achievement of his administration. Kamala Harris has signaled no departure from Biden’s position as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.
A debate about the U.S. role in Europe is long overdue, but both sides have wrongly defined the issues and interests at play. In fact, the United States has the same cardinal interest in Europe today that it has had since at least the early 1900s: keeping the continent’s economic and military power divided. In practice, pursuing this goal has meant preventing the emergence of a European hegemon. Unlike the continent in the mid-twentieth century, however, Europe today lacks a candidate for hegemony and, thanks in part to the success of U.S. efforts after 1945 to rebuild and restore prosperity to Western Europe, another hegemonic threat is unlikely to emerge.
The United States should recognize that it has achieved its main goal in Europe. Having successfully ensured that no country can dominate the continent, it should embrace a new approach to the region. Under a revised strategy, the United States would reduce its military presence on the continent, Europeanize NATO, and hand principal responsibility for European security back to its rightful owners: the Europeans.