I must add a couple of caveats to tonight’s roundup. First of all it has been extremely difficult to separate rumor from verifiable fact when it comes to developments related to yesterday’s US-Iran ceasefire, particularly with several members of the Trump administration popping off repeatedly with what has mostly amounted to gibberish all day long. I have done the best I can to track the day’s developments. The second caveat is that I am sick, and that’s made the first problem more challenging because it feels like my brain is encased in cement. So please bear with me, is what I’m saying.
TODAY IN HISTORY
April 8, 876: An Abbasid army manages to defeat the rapidly expanding Saffarid empire at the Battle of Dayr al-ʿAqul. The Abbasids had only just emerged from the “Anarchy at Samarra,” a period in which their Turkic military essentially held the caliphate prisoner in the city of Samarra, and their empire had begun to fall apart amid the power vacuum at its center. The Saffarids emerged into that vacuum and conquered much of modern Iran and Afghanistan along with parts of modern Pakistan before attempting to march on Baghdad. Despite their weakness, the Abbasid army was able to use the Saffarids’ unfamiliarity with the region to outmaneuver and eventually trap the attackers, possibly saving the caliphate and definitely sending the Saffarids into a decline from which they never recovered.
April 8, 1904: The French and UK governments sign the Entente Cordiale, a series of seemingly relatively minor documents ironing out colonial disputes in Egypt, Morocco, Canada, parts of Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific. Despite its humble appearance, the Entente Cordiale is considered the end of the centuries-long rivalry between France and the UK (and their various predecessors) and the beginning of their modern accord. It paved the way for improved relations, driven in part by a shared fear of Germany and leading to a full military alliance in World War I.
MIDDLE EAST
LEBANON
It’s appropriate to start here, because even though the major news of the day is the US ceasefire with Iran it is in Lebanon where that agreement seems most likely to collapse. The Israeli military (IDF) pulverized Lebanon on Wednesday, at one point striking what it claimed were more than 100 targets in a single ten minute barrage. It was the largest and bloodiest IDF action in Lebanon since fighting resumed on that front on March 2, leaving at least 254 people dead and 1165 wounded at last count. Many of these strikes hit Beirut, whose civilian population has swelled as refugees from the IDF’s southern Lebanese occupation have made their way to the city.
This IDF outburst sent an unmistakeable message, that the Israeli government does not consider Lebanon to be included in the ceasefire. But they could’ve sent that message with something far less drastic. Wednesday’s violence may instead have represented the Israeli government’s attempt to wreck the ceasefire before it could really get going. And it could be working—Iranian state media has apparently reported that Tehran “is halting oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz” in response to these IDF attacks. This is a bit odd in that Iranian officials had previously talked about reopening the strait in a limited fashion on Thursday or Friday ahead of the first round of peace talks (more on that below), which seemingly means they hadn’t yet reopened it so it’s unclear what traffic they’re actually halting. Iranian officials have also threatened to attack Israel, which would certainly end the ceasefire if they follow through. But the statement that they’re halting traffic is provocative enough on its own to threaten the ceasefire unless something changes.
What could change? Well, the Iranians could decide that Lebanon is indeed not part of the deal, though that would be quite a comedown from their current position. It is also conceivable that the Israelis are trying to maximize the damage they cause ahead of an actual ceasefire in Lebanon—or at least the Israeli version of a ceasefire, wherein the IDF reduces its tempo from dozens of attacks per day to only a few. But that would probably require some pressure from the US, and that doesn’t seem to be forthcoming. Donald Trump referred to the Lebanon conflict as a “separate skirmish” in comments to PBS on Wednesday, rejecting its inclusion in the ceasefire, though he did add that it will “get taken care of, too,” whatever that means. But according to Haaretz this is contrary to the “impression” that US officials gave their Iranian and Pakistani counterparts in their verbal ceasefire agreement, which makes this a very serious and potentially fatal breach.
