World roundup: April 24 2025
Stories from India, Guinea, Ukraine, and elsewhere
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TODAY IN HISTORY
April 24, 1547: Habsburg/Holy Roman Emperor Charles V’s army virtually annihilates a smaller force led by Protestant princes John Frederick I of Saxony and Philip I of Hesse at the Battle of Mühlberg in Saxony. The battle, and particularly the capture of John Frederick, marked the effective end of the 1546-1547 Schmalkaldic War and the first iteration of the Schmalkaldic League, an alliance of Protestant German nobles. It did not, of course, mark the end of Protestantism. A second Schmalkaldic War in 1552 went worse for the Habsburgs and resulted in the Peace of Passau and, in 1555, the Peace of Augsburg and its famous principle of cuius regio, eius religio (“whose realm, their religion”).
April 24, 1915: Ottoman authorities arrest a group of around 250 Armenian intellectuals in Istanbul in what has come to be known as “Red Sunday.” They were forcibly deported to other parts of the empire and most were ultimately killed. The incident is considered a kind of “decapitation strike” against the empire’s Armenian community and is regarded as the first major event of the Armenian Genocide. April 24 is commemorated as Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day within Armenia and by diaspora Armenians, as well as in countries that have recognized the genocide.
April 24, 1916: Some 1200 Irish republicans, including members of the Irish Volunteers and the Irish Citizen Army, commemorate Easter Monday by seizing a number of key positions in Dublin and declaring the advent of an independent “Irish republic.” The “Easter Rising,” as it’s known, was suppressed within six days by UK security forces, but the atrocities they committed during and after that suppression fueled greater levels of anti-UK sentiment among the Irish population. The Rising is now regarded as one of the major milestones of the “Irish revolutionary period,” as that period’s first serious armed conflict.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
The UK government on Thursday lifted sanctions on several Syrian institutions, chiefly security and intelligence related as well as a handful of media outlets. This is the second round of relief London has offered to the new Syrian regime—the previous iteration, last month, focused mainly on financial and energy institutions. The UK has been out in front of other Western countries on this subject—the European Union has suspended but not lifted many of its sanctions and the US has been more reticent.
LEBANON
The Lebanese Foreign Ministry summoned Iranian ambassador Mojtaba Amani on Thursday to warn him against interference in Lebanese affairs. Late last week Amani took to social media to express his view that the Lebanese government’s effort to disarm Hezbollah “is a clear conspiracy.” Merits of his argument aside you can see why that might have rubbed Lebanese officials the wrong way. There’s no indication that either the disarmament program or Amani’s remarks will impact Lebanese-Iranian relations.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The Israeli military (IDF) killed at least 59 people across Gaza on Thursday, including a couple of high casualty strikes on northern Gaza’s pulverized Jabalia area. Israeli officials issued a “preliminary and final” evacuation warning for the nearby Beit Hanoun and Sheikh Zayed areas, advising residents to “move west immediately toward Gaza City.” Amid the already high level of carnage, IDF commander Eyal Zamir threatened “a larger and more significant operation” unless the Israeli government sees “progress in the return of the hostages in the near future.” He did not elaborate as to what such an operation might entail.
Elsewhere, the Palestine Liberation Organization’s Central Council voted on Thursday to create a “vice chairman” position on the PLO Executive Committee that will also serve as “vice president of the State of Palestine.” The new position is widely seen as a way to name an heir apparent to the 89 year old, deeply unpopular PLO/Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas. There’s no indication as to who will get the gig, but whoever it is will be chosen by Abbas from among the 15 other members of the Executive Committee.
SAUDI ARABIA
Reuters reported on Thursday that the Trump administration is eyeing a whopping $100 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia, ostensibly to be announced next month when Trump makes the kingdom the first overseas stop in his second term. Details beyond the headline number are unknown and it’s unclear whether this is purely an arms deal or part of a broader defense pact. The Saudis have been interested in stronger military ties with the US and there’s some hope in Washington that such a deal could prevent closer ties between the Saudis and China.
IRAN
The Trump administration has named US State Department Policy Planning Director Michael Anton to lead its “technical team” in negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. Anton previously served on Trump’s National Security Council during his first term. The US and Iran were scheduled to hold technical negotiations—where actual progress could be made toward a deal that would then be approved in higher level diplomatic talks—on Wednesday, ahead of Saturday’s diplomatic session in Oman, but that meeting has been rescheduled to Saturday apparently at Oman’s “suggestion.”
At last Saturday’s meeting the Iranian delegation reportedly proposed an “interim deal” that could be arranged within the two month timeframe Donald Trump is demanding. Prospects for a final agreement remain slim overall and virtually nil within such a short window. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has also indicated that he’s ready for another round of nuclear negotiations with the “E3” (France, Germany, and the UK). Under normal circumstances you would expect those talks to be coordinated with the US, but unsurprisingly it doesn’t seem like the Trump administration is communicating with its European counterparts on this issue.
ASIA
INDIA
Indian security forces killed at least three more Naxalite rebels in a clash in Chhattisgarh state on Thursday, according to police officials.
Meanwhile, Tuesday’s deadly attack on tourists in the Kashmir region is quickly spiraling into a potential conflict between India and Pakistan. As I noted yesterday, the Indian government took several retaliatory steps against Pakistan over the incident, which was claimed by a Kashmiri militant group linked to the (allegedly) Pakistan-backed Lashkar-e-Taiba organization. Among other things it revoked existing visas for Pakistani nationals in India and suspended the issuance of new visas, closed the main checkpoint along the Indian-Pakistani border, expelled Pakistan defense advisers from the Pakistan embassy in New Delhi, and announced the suspension of a 1960 treaty that is supposed to maintain the shared use of the Indus River and its tributaries.
In response, the Pakistani government has suspended its other bilateral agreements and its commercial ties with India, reciprocated by expelling Indian defense advisers from Islamabad, suspended the issuance of visas to Indian nationals (except for Sikh pilgrims), and closed its side of the land border and its airspace to Indian flights. Pakistani officials are particularly incensed over the Indus Waters Treaty suspension, which is potentially an existential matter for Islamabad given what it could mean in terms of river water levels over the medium to long term. Indian authorities say they’ve identified three gunmen who participated in the attack, two of whom were allegedly Pakistani, while Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif alleged that Tuesday’s incident was a “false flag” attack orchestrated by new Delhi.
CHINA
Donald Trump has for two days now been insisting that somebody—he won’t say who—is negotiating a US-China trade deal. He told reporters about these apparently secret talks again on Thursday, after the Chinese foreign and commerce ministries both expressly denied that any negotiations are taking place or that any will take place unless Trump rescinds the punitive tariffs and other measures he’s already taken against China. He’s reportedly considering at least a softening of those measures, but the Chinese government clearly feels it’s in a position strong enough that it can afford to wait until Trump blinks before engaging in diplomacy. According to The Washington Post, that assessment could be correct—one of Beijing’s retaliatory actions in particular seems to have the Trump administration spooked:
Senior administration officials are scrambling to stem economic damage from China’s restrictions on rare-earth exports, as President Donald Trump’s trade war risks cutting key industries and defense contractors off from supplies of metals crucial to production, according to three people familiar with internal deliberations.
While companies search for alternative suppliers and urge the White House to cut a deal that will keep the materials flowing to U.S. manufacturers, the Trump administration is finding there are no easy solutions. China has a lock on the supply of certain elements that are essential to making such things as military drones, consumer electronics and battery-powered vehicles.
“China knows this is a very strong bargaining chip, and it is why they are playing it,” said Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes, who was a deputy director for batteries and critical materials at the Energy Department during the Biden administration. “This is fast emerging as our Achilles’ heel. What makes these bans particularly dangerous is oftentimes one of these materials is a single point of failure for entire supply chains, and its production rests solely in China.”
AFRICA
GUINEA
At World Politics Review, reporter Tangi Bihan says that Guinea’s ruling junta is consolidating power for the long haul:
In early April, the military-led government of Guinea announced a constitutional referendum for Sept. 21, with at least a presidential election likely to follow later this year. The announcement seems to be an attempt by the country’s interim leader, Gen. Mamadi Doumbouya, to accelerate his efforts to normalize his regime. The polls are expected to mark the end of the “transition” back to constitutional rule after the military coup led by Doumbouya—then a colonel—against then-President Alpha Conde in September 2021. But Guinean authorities no longer speak of a “transition,” instead referring to a “refoundation” of the state, while openly asserting their intention to remain in power.
Ever since the coup three and a half years ago, the National Committee for Reconciliation and Development, or CNRD—as the junta named itself—has implemented delaying tactics to postpone the return to constitutional order. It organized “national consultations” and “political dialogues,” all of which were boycotted by the main political parties, and claimed that it needed to conduct a census to create a new electoral roll. It has spent the past year drafting a new constitution, whose text so far remains a closely guarded secret.
In the midst of all of these delays the junta has managed to either jail or chase into exile any high profile challengers to Doumbouya’s continued rule. And in case you haven’t noticed, that whole “autocracy vs. democracy” thing is very 2024 and these days the international climate is pretty favorable for a military government that might, hypothetically, be planning to rig an election in order to remain in power.
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SOMALIA
Somali security forces and al-Shabab fighters are reportedly engaged in a heated battle for control of a military base in the town of Wargaadhi in central Somalia’s Hirshabelle state. If al-Shabab is able to seize the base it could cut off a major road linking Mogadishu to Galmudug state further to the north. There are unconfirmed reports that the militants, who attacked the facility Thursday morning, have taken it, but the Somali military has counterattacked and as far as I could tell the battle was ongoing at time of writing. Al-Shabab claimed the seizure of another strategically significant town in Hirshabelle, Adan Yabal, last week but military officials are insisting that they’ve since pushed the militants back on that front.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
In contrast with Reuters’ dim view of the situation, most of the reporting around the state of DRC-M23 peace talks has been fairly upbeat over the past couple of days. Publicly, at least, the parties agreed on Wednesday to a continued ceasefire and continued negotiations. They even issued a joint statement about their plans, which in itself could be seen as a kind of progress. That said, what the parties are saying is obviously much less important than what they do, and it remains to be seen if this ceasefire is going to fare any better than the several previous ceasefire attempts they’ve made and broken.
EUROPE
UKRAINE
What’s being called the largest Russian drone and missile barrage on Kyiv so far this year killed at least 12 people overnight and prompted a plaintive cry from Washington:
US President Donald Trump, desperate for foreign policy accomplishments to tout at the 100 day mark of his administration next week, showed reluctance again today to hold Russian President Vladimir Putin responsible for failing to agree to a U.S. proposal to end Russia’s war on Ukraine, even after Russia rained missiles and drones on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv overnight, leveling an apartment building and killing over a dozen civilians and wounding over 90 people.
“I am not happy with the Russian strikes on Kyiv,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform this morning. “Not necessary and bad timing.
“Vladimir, STOP!” Trump pleaded. “Let’s get the peace deal done.”
But this afternoon, meeting with visiting Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store at the White House, Trump continued to insist that he thought Putin wanted a peace deal and refused to consider imposing additional US pressure on Russia for obstructing a deal.
Trump’s continued insistence that Ukraine, rather than Russia, is the main obstacle to peace appears to be confounding even some of his political and media sycophants at this point. It would be more accurate to say that Ukraine is the bigger obstacle to Trump’s specific peace proposal, which is probably because at least by outward appearance that proposal is very favorable toward Russia. In remarks to reporters on Thursday Trump seemed to suggest that the main concession he’s demanding from Moscow is simply ending the war, which aligns with a peace framework that formally recognizes Russia’s annexation of Crimea and informally recognizes its annexation of the mainland Ukrainian territory it now occupies.
The Trump administration may ask Russia to make some sort of concession toward Ukraine’s right to defend itself, though it’s unclear what that might look like. Vladimir Putin’s maximalist position is essentially that Ukraine isn’t a real country and should be demilitarized, and I guess it’s possible that the administration could get him to soften there. But that’s a long way from providing Ukraine with any sort of security guarantees, let alone getting Putin to accept a European defense force on Ukrainian soil as has been discussed among NATO and European Union members.
UNITED KINGDOM
According to Reuters, the UK government is “edging towards” a new defense pact with the European Union that could bolster Europe’s rearmament project and potentially improve overall relations between the UK and continental Europe. A planned summit next month could lay out other potential areas for greater cooperation, though UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is reportedly concerned about moving too far or too quickly toward embracing the EU lest he alienate Donald Trump.
AMERICAS
HAITI
Criminal insurgents killed at least four Haitian police officers and four police officers and armed civilian auxiliaries in two incidents in and around Port-au-Prince on Wednesday. The police and auxiliaries were from the city’s Canapé Vert neighborhood, which has so far been able to resist gang control, and were killed responding to an insurgent attack on the Pacot neighborhood. Gang alliances now control over 85 percent of the capital and have apparently been intensifying their attacks on parts of the remaining 15 percent of late.
CANADA
A new poll from CTV News-Globe and Mail-Nanos shows a tightening race ahead of Canada’s federal election on Monday. The rolling three day survey gave Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal party a 3.6 percent lead over the opposition Conservatives on Thursday, down from 5.6 percent the previous day. That could be statistical noise, but if it’s accurate it could point toward an outcome where the Liberals are reelected but without a parliamentary majority. In that case Carney would be forced to rely on smaller parties to pass legislation. Donald Trump, whose overt hostility toward Canada played a major role in swinging this race from a likely Conservative victory to a likely Liberal one, may have once again interjected himself into the contest on Wednesday when he threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian auto imports. It remains to be seen whether that will have a significant electoral impact.
UNITED STATES
A federal judge on Wednesday ordered the Trump administration to bring back a second man whom it “mistakenly” trafficked to El Salvador’s CECOT prison camp last month in a case that echoes the Kilmar Ábrego García situation. This individual is apparently Venezuelan, caught up in Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency’s rigorously vetted dragnet of people who seem like they might be involved in the Tren de Aragua gang because of their tattoos or the like. Given that the administration has told the US Supreme Court to go to hell with respect to bringing Ábrego García back I assume they won’t be following this order either.
Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday authorizing US involvement in “seabed mineral exploration and development both within and beyond national jurisdiction,” according to a White House “fact sheet.” The New York Times reported that the order “instructs the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to expedite permits for companies to mine in both international and U.S. territorial waters.” This assumption of the right to mine seabeds in extraterritorial waters is almost certainly illegal under international law and should generate a fair amount of global outrage, particularly insofar as this administration is likely to pursue such mining operations in the most environmentally destructive manner possible. The International Seabed Authority, formed in 1994, is supposed to regulate seabed mining in international waters, but the US is not a member of that body.
Finally, TomDispatch’s Alfred McCoy sketches out the “spheres of influence” vision that seems to be animating Trump’s second term foreign policy:
Amid a torrent of confusing, often contradictory foreign policy pronouncements pouring forth almost daily from the Trump White House, the overall design of his de facto geopolitical strategy has taken shape with surprising speed. Instead of maintaining mutual-security alliances like NATO, President Trump seems to prefer a globe divided into three major regional blocs, each headed by an empowered leader like himself — with Russia dominating its European periphery, China paramount in Asia, and the United States controlling, in a version of fortress America, all of North America (including, of course, the Panama Canal). Reflecting what his defense secretary called a “loathing of European freeloading” and his administration’s visceral disdain for the European Union, Trump is pursuing that tricontinental strategy at the expense of the traditional trans-Atlantic alliance, embodied by NATO, that has been the foundation for American foreign policy since the start of the Cold War.
…
In its totality, Trump’s vision is of a continental Fortress America, formed by annexing the northern lands of Canada and Greenland, while sealing off Mexico for ethnic reasons as a separate but subordinate state. Then, sweeping aside what had long been a U.S. reliance on global multilateral defense pacts and, with the country’s Arctic approaches under its control, the administration would draw a defensive frontier around Greenland and through the North Atlantic Ocean, secure the Panama Canal as a southern bastion, and maintain military control over the entire Pacific Ocean. Every major component of such a strategy would, of course, be laden with the potential for conflict, particularly the administration’s plans for the Pacific, where the U.S. faces a continuing challenge from China.