World roundup: April 23 2024
World roundup: April 23 2024
Stories from Israel-Palestine, China, Ethiopia, and elsewhere
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Happy Passover to those who are celebrating!
TODAY IN HISTORY
April 23, 1817: Under their leader Miloš Obrenović, a group of Serbian rebels in the village of Takovo declare independence from the Ottoman Empire, setting off the Second Serbian Uprising. After a conflict that lasted until late July 1817, the rebels were able to win de facto independence from the Ottomans, who recognized their autonomous state as the “Principality of Serbia.” The Serbs finally gained full independence at the Congress of Berlin in 1878.
April 23, 1985: In what is considered one of the most catastrophically bad business decisions of all time, the Coca-Cola Company introduces a new formula for its flagship beverage. Although the new formula had outperformed the old one in taste tests, the move was so overwhelmingly unpopular that the company revived the old formula a mere three months later, first as “Coca-Cola Classic” and later, after it had phased out the new formula, as just “Coca-Cola” again. The switch seemed so baffling that it spawned a plethora of conspiracy theories, ranging from a ploy to boost sales to a cover story to disguise changes in the original formula (a switch from sugar to high fructose corn syrup and/or the removal of its remaining coca components).
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
Satellite images appear to show the Israeli military (IDF) advancing its preparations for the forthcoming ground assault on Rafah. According to Al Jazeera, one set of images indicates that the IDF is beginning to mass vehicles in two areas: along the northern Gaza border and in the Negev Desert in southern Israel. It’s also established at least nine base facilities around the outskirts of the Gaza Strip. The upshot appears to be that the IDF is planning not just to go into Rafah, but to go in with most of its forces—presumably in hopes of achieving a quick “mission accomplished” moment. Meanwhile, the AP looked at another set of images that appears to show a tent city going up in Khan Younis. This could be related to whatever plan the IDF has to try to evacuate (or gesture toward evacuating) civilians from Rafah ahead of the assault, though a “Palestinian health official” told the AP that the tents are meant to accommodate people already displaced by the IDF’s handiwork.
By the by, International Committee of the Red Cross Middle East regional director Fabrizio Carboni told AFP on Tuesday that the ICRC believes an evacuation of Rafah is not “possible” given the devastation the IDF has wrought on the rest of Gaza. Carboni also said that the ICRC hasn’t seen any indication of an Israeli evacuation plan, though The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that a plan does exist. Citing “Egyptian officials briefed on the Israeli plans,” the WSJ reported that Israeli officials are planning for a two to three week evacuation coupled with a slow move into Rafah. It’s unclear how the Israelis intend to provide humanitarian support for evacuees, given that the vast majority of the aid that comes into Gaza passes through Rafah. The US military says it’s planning to start construction on its Gaza pier project “soon,” so I guess there’s some possibility that could play a role here assuming it actually works.
The United Nations is calling for an “investigation” into reports of mass graves unearthed on the campuses of Shifa Hospital in Gaza City and Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis. The IDF has besieged and raided both of those locations—twice, I believe, in the case of Shifa—since October 7. Israeli officials have said their forces killed “militants” who were allegedly using those facilities but witnesses have relayed details of mass summary executions that may be borne out by the discovery of these mass graves. Israeli officials reject those allegations and the allegation that they dug these mass graves. They insist that their forces merely exhumed bodies that had already been buried to see if any of them were Israelis who’d been taken hostage on October 7. Any thorough investigation would require a ceasefire, so there’s little chance of that happening.
And in the West Bank, Israeli forces killed at least one Palestinian and wounded two others in a raid in the West Bank city of Jericho and nearby refugee camps on Tuesday. There’s no indication that any of the casualties were combatants.
IRAQ
Iraqi officials now believe that a mysterious explosion that rocked a militia base in Babil province overnight Friday-Saturday was caused by munitions stored at the facility. Given the broader regional circumstances there has been speculation that the blast was the result of an Israeli (or, less likely, US) drone strike, but the Iraqis claim there were no aircraft (including drones) in the area at the time. The blast killed one person and wounded several others.
LEBANON
The IDF and Hezbollah exchanged fire across the Israeli-Lebanese border several times on Tuesday. In particular, Hezbollah launched a drone strike against two IDF bases near Acre that marks its deepest attack into Israeli territory since October 7. That strike came in response to an IDF attack earlier in the day that killed one Hezbollah fighter. After the Acre strike, the IDF carried out an airstrike on the southern Lebanese village of Hanin that reportedly killed two civilians and prompted Hezbollah to fire a barrage of rockets into northern Israel.
IRAN
The Biden administration on Tuesday blacklisted four individuals and two entities allegedly tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ cyber command. Federal prosecutors also announced that they’re charging the four individuals over what Reuters called “an alleged multi-year cyber campaign targeting more than one dozen American companies.” Most of the targeted companies were defense contractors.
ASIA
ARMENIA
The Armenian government’s decision to hand four disputed border villages over to Azerbaijan seems to have borne some tangible fruit, in the form of actual progress on demarcating the nebulous Armenian-Azerbaijani border. Officials from both countries actually installed a border marker on Tuesday, essentially working off of Soviet provincial maps. Border disputation is one of the biggest single sore spots in the Armenian-Azerbaijani relationship, and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev responded to the demarcation on Tuesday by proclaiming that a bilateral peace deal is now “close as never before.”
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is taking heat for the village transfer, however. Critics have accused him of trading the strategically important villages for the diplomatic equivalent of magic beans in the form of vague promises from Aliyev about advancing peace talks. Tuesday’s demarcation news might quiet some of that criticism, though I doubt it will silence the critics completely. Aliyev doesn’t have a sterling track record among Armenians, for obvious reasons, so his public optimism is unlikely to reassure many people in Yerevan.
MYANMAR
Unspecified sources within the Myanmar military are telling AFP that their forces have reoccupied a military outpost in the border town of Myawaddy that they’d abandoned to rebels earlier this month. There’s no confirmation of this and, assuming it’s true, no indication as to how they got back into the town, and the rebel Karen National Union apparently hasn’t commented. Myanmar forces have been trying to retake Myawaddy, a major commercial crossing point along the Thai border, via airstrikes and reinforcements on the ground.
CHINA
At Foreign Policy, Rice University’s Gabriel Collins and Steven Miles see indications that the Biden administration may be trialing a major shift in US energy policy:
A low-profile post by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) may point to a serious strategic change in U.S. policy in trade, energy, and relations with China. So far, the notice has received little or no public coverage or attention despite its potential ramifications—but, combined with other legislative and political signals, it could be a game-changer in the energy landscape.
The White House and DOE announced on Jan. 26, 2024, a “temporary pause” in reviewing applications to export liquefied natural gas (LNG) to countries with which the U.S. does not have a free trade agreement (“non-FTA countries”). The Natural Gas Act (NGA) requires the DOE to approve applications for the export of LNG to non-FTA countries unless the DOE finds that the export would “not be consistent with the public interest.”
In its Jan. 26 announcement, the DOE emphasized that the factors it would consider were the “same” that “DOE has considered when evaluating the public interest of LNG exports for more than a decade”; namely, domestic natural gas prices, economic impact, energy security for the U.S. and its allies, and environmental factors, with an extra dose of climate consciousness. Save for climate, these are long-standing metrics for determining the NGA’s public interest standard.
But on Feb. 23, the DOE posted a new notice to explain the “temporary pause.” It was similar to the Jan. 26 announcement—save for the last paragraph. There, the DOE suggested one outcome of its pause in issuing new LNG export permits could be to take steps to reduce the risks to consumers and manufacturers caused “by selling our energy resources to competitor countries that don’t align with our interests and those of our allies.” The only potential LNG-buying nation that fits that description is the People’s Republic of China.
China doesn’t import much US LNG right now, but Chinese firms “account for almost 25 percent of the volume” of long-term US LNG export contracts. This “temporary pause” could be the prelude to a bigger and more permanent change.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The Sudanese military says its air defenses prevented a drone strike on its base in the northeastern Sudanese city of Shendi on Tuesday. Sudanese military commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan was apparently in that area on Tuesday but it’s unclear whether the Rapid Support Forces group was targeting him specifically. The RSF has attempted drone strikes against military positions in parts of eastern Sudan on a few occasions in recent months—it never claims responsibility but it’s not like there are any other suspects—but none of them have been particularly extensive or successful.
MALI
The US State Department on Tuesday blacklisted seven senior figures within the al-Qaeda aligned Jamaʿat Nusrat al-Islam wa’l-Muslimin jihadist group, while the Treasury Department blacklisted two additional JNIM members. Several were targeted specifically for their involvement in hostage taking, and even more specifically for taking US nationals hostage. Since I’m assuming none of these targeted people have significant assets in the US and that none of them were planning to spend their summer vacation in the US, these actions are mostly symbolic. The sanctions also prohibit US nationals from dealing with the targeted individuals.
ETHIOPIA
The UN says that some 50,000 people have been displaced by “armed clashes” in the Tigray region’s Southern zone over the past two weeks. It’s unclear who exactly is clashing. Amhara regional security forces occupied that area during the Ethiopian government’s war with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and may still be there even though it’s long past the deadline for those forces to have withdrawn. Like Tigray’s Western zone, this is an area over which the Amhara and Tigray have overlapping claims.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
A Russian court on Tuesday rejected Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich’s newest appeal of his March 2023 arrest on spying charges. Gershkovich’s lawyers were challenging the Russian government’s latest extension of his pretrial detention period, which now runs through at least June 30. Russian officials have suggested on several occasions that they may be amenable to releasing Gershkovich as part of another prisoner exchange with the US, but only after his trial—a trial that they have repeatedly postponed.
UKRAINE
The Russian military has reportedly seized another village in Ukraine’s Donetsk oblast. Officials in Moscow as well as Russian bloggers are claiming that Russian forces moved into Ocheretyne on Sunday. That village is located northwest of Avdiivka and due east of the city of Pokrovsk, an important Ukrainian logistical hub. Perhaps more significantly, its capture suggests that the Russians have breached the defensive line the Ukrainians tried to establish after pulling out of Avdiivka back in February. It opens a second line of advance in addition to the Russian push on the town of Chasiv Yar to the north.
The Ukrainian government announced on Tuesday that it will no longer perform consular services for “fighting age” (anywhere from 18 to 60 years old) Ukrainian men living abroad—unless, of course, they’re interested in returning to Ukraine. The aim is undoubtedly to ensure that Ukrainian authorities have updated military registration documents for those men in concert with their new mobilization law.
AMERICAS
HAITI
Haitian police are reportedly scrambling to try to secure the area around the National Palace in Port-au-Prince by Wednesday, when that facility is scheduled to be the site where the members of Haiti’s new “transitional council” are sworn into office. Insurgents control most of that area at this point but Haitian authorities are insisting on using the palace because they feel it will demonstrate that they, not the gangs, are in charge—all available evidence to the contrary.
UNITED STATES
By an overwhelming majority, the US Senate on Tuesday night approved the version of Joe Biden’s $95 billion supplemental military aid package that the House of Representatives passed over the weekend. It includes funding for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan along with a possible US ban on the social media app TikTok. Biden will presumably be signing it into law any minute now, after which the US military will likely get moving on its first major new tranche of Ukrainian military assistance in several months.
Finally, TomDispatch’s Tom Engelhardt, a couple of months shy of his 80th birthday, ponders our American gerontocracy and what it implies:
I mean, the country that still passes for the greatest power on Planet Earth is going to set a limping age record for president, no matter who wins, leaving China’s Xi Jinping, now 70, and Russia’s Vladmir Putin, now 71, as relative youths in an all-American world of absolute ancientness. And that should certainly tell you something about the state of our country and this planet, too.
To be a little clearer about just what, let me add one more factor to the equation. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are preparing a fight to the wire to lead an America that, not so many decades ago, in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, was considered the “sole superpower” on planet Earth. Doesn’t that tell you something?
I think it does. I think, quite bluntly (though I’ve seen no one discussing this amid the endless media headlines and chatter about Trump and Biden), that those two old codgers offer a stunning image of the all-too-literal decline and fall of — yes! — the United States. They should make us consider where the country that still likes to think of itself as the singularly most powerful and influential one on this planet is really heading.