World roundup: April 18 2024

Stories from Iran, Croatia, Ukraine, and elsewhere

Apr 19, 2024

This is the web version of Foreign Exchanges, but did you know you can get it delivered right to your inbox? Sign up today:

TODAY IN HISTORY

April 18, 1897: The Ottoman Empire declares war on Greece, marking the official start of the Greco-Turkish War (which had unofficially begun the previous month).

April 18, 1938: Action Comics debuts with issue #1, published by National Allied Publications as an anthology meant to replicate and complement the success founder Malcolm Wheeler-Nicholson had achieved when he began publishing Detective Comics the previous December. The first story in the issue was called “Superman,” from writer Jerry Siegel and artist Joe Shuster, and marks the first appearance of their character by that name. The story was an instant success, arguably birthing the modern superhero genre (Detective Comics wouldn’t introduce its famous star, Batman, until the following year), and today Action Comics #1 is regarded as the most valuable comic book ever published (a near-mint copy sold for over $3 million in 2014).

MIDDLE EAST

ISRAEL-PALESTINE

BREAKING: The Israeli retaliation for Iran’s weekend drone and missile attack is apparently underway, with Israeli strikes on Iran itself (at least in the city of Isfahan) and possibly against Iranian-aligned militias in Syria and/or Iraq. I don’t know any more than that and doubt it will be possible to know much more for some time, and as it is late here in the US I will unfortunately have to leave it there and discuss the aftermath tomorrow.

Citing “two US officials,” Barak Ravid at Axios is reporting that US and Israeli officials are/were planning “a high level virtual meeting” on Thursday to discuss the terms of the Israeli military’s (IDF) forthcoming ground assault on the Gazan city of Rafah. In theory the discussion will include the Israeli government’s plans, such as they are, for getting civilians out of the way before the heaviest fighting starts. With that as the backdrop, The New Arab’s Arabic service reported (later picked up by The Times of Israel) that “Egyptian officials” say the Biden administration has already effectively green lit the Rafah operation on Israeli terms. In exchange for the administration possibly turning a blind eye to another civilian massacre, these unnamed Egyptians claim that Israeli officials have agreed to go relatively easy in their military retaliation for Iran’s weekend drone and missile attack.

The Biden administration, for whatever it’s worth, has denied the New Arab report. Make of all this what you will. The sourcing is obviously suspect but the general thrust of the reporting certainly seems consistent with how the administration is conducting Middle East policy these days.

In other items:

To reinforce what I just wrote above, The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that the Biden administration is still, incredibly, planning to make another push for an Israeli-Saudi normalization deal before the election. US officials are now using Saudi participation in the effort to intercept that Iranian attack (more on that below) as part of their pitch to the Israeli government. The sticking point continues to be the Israeli government’s opposition to even the most token of gestures toward Palestinian statehood. According to the WSJ the Saudis may be willing to “accept verbal assurances from Israel that it would engage in new talks on Palestinian statehood”—or, in other words, nothing—because their real interests are in the security and nuclear deals they can get from the US. But the Israelis won’t even go that far, apparently.
The Biden administration vetoed the Palestinian Authority’s application for full United Nations membership in the UN Security Council on Thursday. This is not surprising but it does apparently mean that the administration’s effort to whip votes against the resolution has failed, as the US was the only UNSC member to vote no. Axios’s Ravid reported on Wednesday that the administration tried to bribe PA leader Mahmoud Abbas to withdraw his application with the promise of a White House meeting with Joe Biden. That sounds more like a punishment than a reward to me, though I can see why the administration would think otherwise. Suffice to say Abbas refused their request.
US Deputy Ambassador to the UN Robert Wood casting his veto on Thursday (Fatih Aktas/Anadolu via Getty Images)
According to Daniel Boguslaw and Ken Klippenstein at The Intercept, the Arab states that participated in defending Israel from Iran’s attack over the weekend are signaling that they might not be so amenable to Israeli interests moving forward. It’s been difficult to get a handle on exactly which Arab states participated and in what fashion, since none of their governments are acknowledging very much, but the Jordanian military intercepted Iranian projectiles directly while it seems at least the Iraqi and Saudi governments allowed US forces stationed in their countries to participate in the operation. If/when Israel retaliates those countries could decide to stop helping (and at least in Jordan’s case might even try to intercept Israeli drones and missiles).
UN Secretary-General António Guterres told the UNSC on Thursday that the Israeli government’s promises of improved humanitarian relief since the April 1 drone strike that killed seven World Central Kitchen aid workers have amounted to “limited and sometimes nil” actual change in Gaza’s humanitarian situation. Please try to contain your shock. The Biden administration insists that it’s seen “some measurable progress” on this front but doesn’t seem able to specify in what ways or by how much.

SYRIA

Attacks by Islamic State fighters killed at least 28 Syrian soldiers and pro-government militia fighters on Thursday. There were two incidents, the larger of which involved an attack on a military bus in Syria’s Homs province that left at least 22 people dead. In the second incident, IS fighters killed at least six soldiers near the eastern Syrian town of al-Bukamal.

LEBANON

Hezbollah says that Israeli strikes killed at least two of its fighters on Thursday, though it apparently hasn’t said where or exactly how they died. A Hezbollah attack on northern Israel on Wednesday wounded some 14 Israeli soldiers so there’s clearly been no let up in fighting along the Israeli-Lebanese border.

IRAN

The US and UK governments blacklisted several individuals and companies linked to the IRGC’s drone program on Thursday. These are part of what may be a larger battery of sanctions (that will likely include a European Union contribution as well) stemming from Iran’s weekend attack on Israel. They’re intended partly to respond to that attack and partly to convince the Israeli government that it can tread lightly in its military retaliation because Western governments are making Tehran pay in other ways. Iranian officials, meanwhile, are threatening overwhelming retaliation for whatever Israel does next. Most of this seems like bluster, but IRGC Brigadier General Ahmad Haghtalab told Iranian media on Thursday that any attack on Iranian nuclear sites could result in Tehran making the decision to weaponize its nuclear program. That seems like a credible threat.

At Foreign Policy, Sina Toossi outlines the thinking that went into the Iranian decision to attack Israel over the weekend:

To understand the full implications of this assault, it’s essential to consider the internal Iranian context. Government officials, analysts, and political figures in Iran view the attack as indicative of a strategic shift meant to change regional dynamics. They say the strikes aimed not to provoke an all-out war, but to establish strategic deterrence.
This strategic recalibration follows a prolonged period during which Israel’s actions against Tehran’s interests went largely unchallenged. These actions included strikes on Iranian military figures, scientists, and key infrastructure, carried out with seeming impunity.
The landscape shifted, however, following a speech by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during Eid al-Fitr on April 10. This address came in the wake of an Israeli airstrike that hit the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, on April 1, which claimed the lives of 16 people, among them two senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers. In his public remarks, Khamenei proclaimed, “Consulates and embassy facilities in any country are considered the soil of the country to which the embassy belongs; when our consulate is attacked, it’s as if our soil has been attacked; this is a global convention. The nefarious regime made a mistake in this matter; it must be punished, and it will be punished.”
Iran’s subsequent military response was measured, with warnings issued beforehand to various regional countries, to minimize casualties and provide Israel with de-escalation options. Iranian officials were quick to embed an unequivocal message within this new strategic posture: Any future incursions on Iranian soil or against Iranian nationals abroad will trigger direct counterstrikes on Israeli territory. Iran has thus defined its threshold, attempting to create a new strategic reality.

ASIA

TAJIKISTAN

The New York Times examines the prevalence of Tajiks in the ranks of Islamic State’s most active branch:

Tajik adherents of the Islamic State — especially within its affiliate in Afghanistan known as the Islamic State Khorasan Province (I.S.K.P.), or ISIS-K — have taken increasingly high-profile roles in a string of recent terrorist attacks. Over the last year alone, Tajiks have been involved in assaults in Russia, Iran and Turkey, as well as foiled plots in Europe. ISIS-K is believed to have several thousand soldiers, with Tajiks constituting more than half, experts said.
“They have become key to I.S.K.P.’s externally focused campaign as it seeks to gain attention and more recruits,” said Edward Lemon, an international relations professor at Texas A&M University who specializes in Russia, Tajikistan and terrorism.
Analysts say a kind of double whammy leaves Tajiks vulnerable to recruitment. An increasingly authoritarian former Soviet republic, Tajikistan ranks among the world’s poorest countries, which fuels discontent and drives millions of migrant laborers to seek better lives abroad. In a country of 10 million people, a majority of working men, estimated at more than two million, seek employment abroad at any given time.
And most migrants end up in Russia, where rampant discrimination, low wages, poor prospects and isolation make some susceptible to jihadist recruiters. Officially, about 1.3 million Tajik laborers are in Russia, although experts believe hundreds of thousands of others work there illegally.

The Tajik government has apparently noticed the bad press this IS connection is bringing to the country. It’s responded with a new counterterrorism push…but apparently one that’s focused on rounding up suspected terrorists rather than addressing any of those root causes. We’ll see how it goes.

PAKISTAN

Unspecified gunmen killed at least four Pakistani customs officials in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province on Thursday. Given the location the attackers may have been connected with the Pakistan Taliban or one of its splinter groups, but that’s unclear.

INDIA

India’s extensive parliamentary election will begin on Friday and is scheduled to run through June 1. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a third term, a feat matched only by India’s first post-independence PM, Jawaharlal Nehru. Polling generally indicates that Modi’s right-wing National Democratic Alliance coalition will emerge victorious, possibly by a wider margin than its 2019 victory.

BURKINA FASO

Burkina Faso’s ruling junta expelled three French diplomatic staffers on Thursday, accusing them of involvement in “subversive activities” without further explanation. The French government complained that the junta had “no legitimate grounds” for the expulsion order.

NIGERIA

A landmine killed at least ten people and wounded 23 more in northeastern Nigeria’s Borno state on Wednesday. The vehicle that struck the mine was part of a “convoy of farmers and fishermen,” according to AFP. Authorities believe Islamic State’s West Africa Province fighters planted the explosive device.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO

Fighters from the CODECO militia are believed to have been responsible for attacks on “several villages” in the northeastern DRC’s Ituri province on Monday and Tuesday that left at least 15 people dead in total. At least one local account puts the death toll at 20 or more.

EUROPE

RUSSIA

The Russian military says its air defenses shot down five Ukrainian balloons overnight, three over Russia’s Voronezh oblast and two more over Belgorod oblast. They were intercepted as part of a fairly large Ukrainian barrage involving missiles, drones, and rockets. Apparently the Ukrainian military has started employing balloons as makeshift, slow moving drones. They’re necessarily unguided but they can carry a fairly substantial payload and they contain GPS sensors so that Ukrainian officials can track them and drop said payload if/when they float over something of interest. So far they don’t seem to be doing much other than providing target practice for Russian antiaircraft systems.

POLAND

Polish authorities have arrested a man accused of “helping the Russian special forces to plan a possible assassination attempt” against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Details of the alleged plot are unclear but he was apparently caught passing security information about Poland’s Rzeszow-Jasionka airport to the Russians. Zelensky uses that facility when he travels abroad.

CROATIA

Croatia’s parliamentary election has indeed resulted in a hung parliament, with the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) emerging victorious but well shy of a majority. The HDZ won 61 seats in the 151 seat legislature, which is three better than exit polling suggested it would win but still a net loss of five seats from where it was going into the contest. Both the HDZ and the opposition Social Democratic Party, whose coalition won 42 seats, announced plans to begin exploring coalition options. The far-right Homeland Movement party came in third with 14 seats and may be in position to determine the makeup of Croatia’s next government.

HAITI

The Biden administration has resumed deportation flights to Haiti after a pause of more than a year, despite the fact that Haiti’s capital city is currently a war zone and the country has no functioning government. The first such flight since January 2023 arrived in Cap-Haïtien airport on Thursday carrying some 50 people. This seems like a blatant violation of the principle of non-refoulement, under which refugees cannot be deported if doing so would put them in danger, but what do I know?

UNITED STATES

Finally, a new ProPublica investigation reveals the extent of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s “see no evil, hear no evil” approach to ignoring Israeli human rights violations:

A special State Department panel recommended months ago that Secretary of State Antony Blinken disqualify multiple Israeli military and police units from receiving U.S. aid after reviewing allegations that they committed serious human rights abuses.
But Blinken has failed to act on the proposal in the face of growing international criticism of the Israeli military’s conduct in Gaza, according to current and former State Department officials.
The incidents under review mostly took place in the West Bank and occurred before Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel. They include reports of extrajudicial killings by the Israeli Border Police; an incident in which a battalion gagged, handcuffed and left an elderly Palestinian American man for dead; and an allegation that interrogators tortured and raped a teenager who had been accused of throwing rocks and Molotov cocktails.
Recommendations for action against Israeli units were sent to Blinken in December, according to one person familiar with the memo. “They’ve been sitting in his briefcase since then,” another official said.

US law obliges Blinken to vet military and police units that receive US support and to cut off those found to be “credibly accused” of violating human rights. So in addition to enabling those rights violations he’s also breaking the law.