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TODAY IN HISTORY
April 16, 1457 BCE: This is the date most commonly cited for the Battle of Megiddo, the earliest well-documented (reasonably, anyway) battle in human history. An Egyptian army under Pharaoh Thutmose III defeated a group of rebelling Canaanite kingdoms at Megiddo, a city that was the site of so many battles in the ancient world that it gave its name to the hypothetical apocalyptic “Battle of Armageddon.” They followed up by besieging the city, which fell seven months later. Thutmose’s victory restored Egyptian preeminence in the Levant and enabled the greatest territorial expansion in Ancient Egyptian history.
April 16, 73: This is the traditional date for the fall of Masada, a Jewish fortress whose capture by the Romans effectively ended the First Jewish-Roman War (66-74). According to the Jewish rebel leader-turned-Roman historian Flavius Josephus, the surviving defenders of Masada chose mass suicide over capture. Modern archeological work on the site, which also questions the dating of the siege, suggests the Romans massacred most of the survivors and that Josephus was either misinformed or deliberately formulated the suicide narrative to cover up the atrocity. The traditional narrative and its story of Jewish fighters choosing death over capture holds a prominent place in modern Israeli national consciousness.
April 16, 1746: The Battle of Culloden sees a British army basically destroy a Jacobite uprising led by pretender prince Charles Edward Stuart. Culloden ended the Jacobite Uprising of 1745, in which Charles had attempted to organize a multi-pronged invasion of England involving France as well as his own forces. That invasion never really came together and so he was forced to retreat to Scotland and eventually had no choice but to meet the pursuing English army in the open field. Charles survived and continued to claim the British and Irish thrones but the 1745 uprising was over and so pretty much was the Jacobite movement as a whole. Culloden has been called the “last pitched battle” ever fought on British soil (British, not Irish), which I guess is true but I am not a British historian so don’t quote me.
MIDDLE EAST
SYRIA
The US military withdrew from the Qasrak airbase in northern Syria’s Hasakah province on Thursday, completing the handover of all of its “major” facilities to the Syrian government. The US military’s Central Command has been withdrawing from Syrian bases for several weeks now, ever since the government and the Syrian Democratic Forces group reached an accord. Also related to that accord, Syrian Kurds have begun registering for citizenship. Many Syrian Kurds have been unregistered since a 1962 census stripped a large portion of that community of its citizenship, but amid his negotiations with the SDF Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa issued a decree in January allowing Kurds to obtain citizen status.
LEBANON
After trying and apparently failing to arrange a phone call between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun on Thursday, Donald Trump hopped onto social media to announce that he’d instead gotten them both to agree to a ceasefire effective a midnight local time (5 PM eastern in the US). The ceasefire is set to last for at least ten days but can be renewed if both parties agree. It obliges the Lebanese government, which is not actually a combatant here, to restrain Hezbollah, which is, from attacking Israel.
The chances of this arrangement surviving seem slim. It’s structured so that the Israeli military (IDF) is obliged to cease “offensive” military activity, but the Israeli government has described its entire Lebanese campaign—including the mass depopulation and occupation of a swath of southern Lebanon, as an act of self-defense. The Gaza “ceasefire,” presumably the model for this accord, has been replete with IDF violations justified through a very expansive definition of “defensive” action. Hezbollah has said that it will honor the ceasefire provided the IDF stops attacking it, but really the likelihood of that is low. There doesn’t even seem to be any requirement that the IDF withdraw from southern Lebanon, which makes a return to conflict practically inevitable. Still it is possible that this ceasefire will hold long enough to remove Lebanon as an obstacle to a US-Iran deal, which is all Trump and company seem to care about.
The IDF spent the hours ahead of the ceasefire pounding southern Lebanon, killing at least eight people in one particularly deadly strike and destroying the last remaining bridge across the Litani River. Trump now says that he wants to invite Netanyahu and Aoun to Washington for face-to-face talks, though when and under what circumstances that might happen remain to be determined.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
Reinforcing what I wrote above, IDF airstrikes killed at least three people in Gaza city and Khan Younis on Thursday according to the Palestinian WAFA news agency. I am unaware of any comment on these strikes from Israeli officials.
IRAN
The news on the US-Iran front is a bit more subdued, particularly after Wednesday’s flurry of activity. Reuters, citing “two Iranian sources,” reported that the parties “have scaled back” their “ambitions.” Instead of focusing on a “comprehensive peace deal” they are instead working on a “a temporary memorandum to prevent a return to conflict,” which would then open a 60 day window to negotiate a more comprehensive arrangement. It does appear that they’ve made progress on the status of the Strait of Hormuz and on Iran’s nuclear program, though they remain at odds over the length of a potential uranium enrichment moratorium. The disposition of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium has also not been determined.
The best indication of progress will likely be a decision to schedule another round of in person negotiations, and right now there is no plan to do that according to the Pakistani Foreign Ministry. An agreement to extend the current ceasefire could come without another meeting but anything more substantive than that will likely require some face-to-face interaction even if it’s just to sign a document.
Elsewhere, while CENTCOM continues to insist that its blockade has completely prevented commercial vessels from getting to or leaving Iran, shipping data apparently shows that at least two supertankers that have been blacklisted by the US government have been able to enter the Persian Gulf this week. It’s not clear whether either or both are heading to Iranian ports—one of them lists Iraq as its destination but that doesn’t mean it’s actually going to Iraq. Even if the blockade drastically slows or stops Iranian oil exports, Reuters reports that Tehran has two months of available storage capacity before it would be forced to reduce production. That’s considerably longer than the 16 days that The Financial Times reported earlier this week and would give the Iranians more time to wait out the US.
ASIA
INDIA
Al Jazeera reports that Indian authorities appear to be purging Muslim voters from the rolls ahead of an important election in West Bengal state:
West Bengal is home to nearly 25 million Muslims, accounting for roughly 27 percent of the state’s 106 million population, according to the last census conducted in 2011 – the community’s second-largest population among Indian states after Uttar Pradesh.
It is also a state [India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party] has never won. The Trinamool Congress (TMC), one of India’s key opposition parties led by Mamata Banerjee, a fiery 71-year-old Modi critic, has governed the state since 2011, ending a record 34 years of communist rule.
The analysis of voter deletions across West Bengal shows that Muslims have been disproportionately affected by the [“special intensive revision” or] SIR exercise, mainly in districts where they constitute a high percentage of the population and could sway the election, including Murshidabad with 460,000 deletions, followed by 330,000 in North 24 Parganas and 240,000 in Malda.
CHINA
The Diplomat’s John Calabrese argues that the Chinese government is taking advantage of the US focus on Iran to reshape its near abroad ahead of Donald Trump’s scheduled visit next month:
[Chinese Foreign Minister] Wang [Yi]’s North Korea trip [earlier this month] is only one part of a broader set of initiatives Beijing has been assembling both to shape the regional environment ahead of the summit and to capitalize on Washington’s focus on the war in the Middle East. China is simultaneously shaping the regional security environment, stabilizing and selectively managing economic relations, and positioning itself as a potential diplomatic intermediary. Not every diplomatic move may have been pre-planned, but the cumulative effect is an increasingly coherent posture that seeks to maximize China’s leverage ahead of the summit while preserving flexibility.
The Iran conflict has created a strategic opening by drawing U.S. attention and resources away from Asia. Rather than acting aggressively, China has generally favored a patient approach that prioritizes building influence and keeping options open over immediate, high-profile gains. This reflects a Xi-era pattern in which structural advantage and long-term positioning often take precedence over headline-grabbing confrontation.
The delay of the Trump–Xi summit, from late March to mid-May due to the Iran war, has reinforced these dynamics. Beijing has gained additional time to shape the agenda and explore leverage points on technology controls, investment restrictions, tariffs, and Taiwan. With Washington managing multiple crises, China appears less as a challenger and more as a stabilizing presence, creating an emergent asymmetry likely to influence U.S. expectations and negotiation dynamics.
AFRICA
SUDAN
The Sudanese Armed Forces killed at least three people and wounded dozens more on Wednesday in another drone strike targeting the Adukong checkpoint along the border between Chad and Sudan’s West Darfur state. The SAF has repeatedly targeted Adukong, claiming that it is trying to interdict fuel shipments bound for the Rapid Support Forces militant group. Civilians have been the most frequent victims of those attacks, including Chadian nationals.
Sudan’s war passed its three year anniversary on Wednesday with the combatants seemingly no closer to a resolution than they were in 2023. The main focal point of the conflict has shifted away from Khartoum and its environs to the Darfur and Kordofan regions but beyond that not much seems to have changed apart from the level of human suffering the two sides have inflicted. Some 13 million people remain displaced due to the war, around 9 million within Sudan and the rest as refugees.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
The Congolese government and M23 militants are holding another round of negotiations in Switzerland, with mediation from Qatar and the US. They’ve apparently agreed to set up a ceasefire monitoring body, though it sounds like there’s still a fair amount of work to do in terms of fleshing out the details of that entity. Assuming it does come into being the monitors should be quite busy, considering that there are perpetual if sketchy reports of regular clashes between the militants and the Congolese army (and/or allied local militias) in the DRC’s South Kivu province. The humanitarian situation in highland areas of that province is thought to be grim, though the fighting and the region’s remoteness make it hard to ascertain conditions.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
A Ukrainian drone strike on Russia’s Black Sea port town of Tuapse killed at least two people on Thursday, including a 14 year old. Russian authorities are also claiming that the Ukrainians struck an oil tanker in the Black Sea.
UKRAINE
One of the largest overnight Russian bombardments of the war killed at least 18 people across Ukraine, including a 12 year old, and left over 100 others wounded. The barrage involved over 700 projectiles, more than 650 of them drones. With Kyiv having struck deals to supply drone interceptors to a number of Persian Gulf Arab states, the Russian military may be testing to see if there’s been a decline in the country’s overall air defense capabilities. Ukraine is still woefully short on air defense interceptors of the kind used to down missiles.
AMERICAS
PERU
Peruvian officials are still counting the votes from Sunday’s/Monday’s presidential election and the race to see who will join first round winner Keiko Fujimori in June’s runoff is too close to call. With around 93 percent of the vote counted, leftist Roberto Sánchez is in second place with 11.98 percent of the vote, while right-wing ex-Lima Mayor Rafael López Aliaga is at 11.92 percent. Fujimori, at just over 17 percent, seems to be a lock for the second round. López Aliaga is alleging fraud and his party is now apparently offering rewards for any information that supports that claim.
NICARAGUA
The Trump administration blacklisted several individuals and entities tied to Nicaragua’s gold sector on Thursday, including a vice minister and two sons of Co-Presidents Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo. They’re accused in particular of involvement in last year’s state seizure of a gold processing facility that had been established with foreign (specifically US) investment.
GREENLAND
The Wall Street Journal reports on the parameters of Donald Trump’s designs on Greenland:
In talks with Denmark and Greenland, the U.S. is now seeking to expand its military presence in three areas of Greenland, the commander of the Northern Command, Gen. Gregory Guillot, told the Senate Armed Services Committee last month.
The locations are aimed at securing a presence for special forces and permanent access to Arctic waters, as well as expanding space and submarine monitoring. A senior Danish official confirmed two possible locations at Kangerlussuaq, formerly Sondrestrom, which houses a sizable airstrip, as well as the maritime gateway of Narsarsuaq. A third potential location could be a deep-water port near Pituffik, where the U.S. already has a space base.
The real hitch of the negotiations is ensuring the U.S. respects Danish and Greenlandic sovereignty. The Danish government has said U.S. sovereignty over bases, akin to the British model in Cyprus, is unacceptable. Such a deal might satisfy Trump’s desire for improved security but falls short of his goal of ownership.
Getting the US government and Donald Trump to respect anything is a tall order, but it’s particularly difficult here because of the possibility that Greenland might achieve independence someday. The US wants to make an agreement with Denmark that will bind Greenland regardless of its future status, which is not in any sense respectful of Greenlandic sovereignty.
UNITED STATES
In US news:
The US military murdered at least three more people in another speedboat strike in the eastern Pacific on Wednesday. That makes at least five such attacks and at least 14 extrajudicial killings since Saturday.
According to Reuters, US officials have been informing their European counterparts that some weapons purchased under the Foreign Military Sales program are going to be delayed. The FMS program is part of the Trump administration’s push to reduce European military dependence on the US and instead encourage European governments to arm themselves with US-made weapons. But the Iran war has left the Pentagon scrambling to maintain its own stockpiles, so European arms sales are taking a backseat. Over time this sort of thing will presumably reduce European interest in purchasing those weapons.
And finally, The Guardian has some great news about a few of the winners (and losers) in Donald Trump’s Iran war:
The world’s top 100 oil and gas companies banked more than $30m every hour in unearned profit in the first month of the US-Israeli war in Iran, according to exclusive analysis for the Guardian. Saudi Aramco, Gazprom and ExxonMobil are among the biggest beneficiaries of the bonanza, meaning key opponents of climate action continue to prosper.
The conflict pushed the price of oil to an average of $100 (£74) a barrel in March, leading to estimated windfall war profits for the month of $23bn for the companies. Oil and gas supplies will take months to return to pre-war levels and the companies will make $234bn by the end of the year if the oil price continues to average $100. The analysis uses data from a leading intelligence provider, Rystad Energy, analysed by Global Witness.
The excess profits come from the pockets of ordinary people as they pay high prices to fill up their vehicles and power their homes, as well as from businesses incurring higher energy bills. Dozens of countries have cut fuel taxes to help struggling consumers, meaning those nations, including Australia, South Africa, Italy, Brazil and Zambia, are raising less money for public services.