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TODAY IN HISTORY
April 14, 43 BCE: The legions of Mark Antony win a victory and suffer a defeat on the same day in the Battle of Forum Gallorum in northern Italy. Antony was confronted by a Republican army under the command of that year’s consuls, Aulus Hirtius and Gaius Vibius Pansa, bolstered by a group of Julius Caesar’s veterans led by Octavian. Antony’s army attacked Pansa’s part of the consular army and won a fleeting victory before an attack by Hirtius forced Antony to withdraw. Pansa was badly wounded and would die on April 22. The outcome of Forum Gallorum was inconclusive and led to a second, decisive engagement, the Battle of Mutina, a week later.
April 14, 1912: Shortly before midnight, the allegedly unsinkable ocean liner RMS Titanic strikes an iceberg and, well, begins sinking. In part due to the fact that it carried enough lifeboats for only about half of the passengers on board (and a third of the passengers it could have carried at full capacity), the Titanic’s sinking became one of the biggest maritime disasters in history, killing more than 1500 people.
INTERNATIONAL
Global oil prices ticked down on Tuesday despite the breakdown of peace talks in Islamabad over the weekend and the resulting US decision to double blockade the Strait of Hormuz. In part this may be due to the potential resumption of those talks (we’ll get to that), but the International Energy Agency is offering another theory: demand destruction. Basically oil has gotten so scarce and so expensive that it’s reducing demand even for what is typically a very inelastic good. The economic implications of that are not promising to say the least.
MIDDLE EAST
LEBANON
As expected, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted Israeli and Lebanese representatives for a discourse in Washington on Tuesday. Also as expected, the “peace” talks were not about peace, they were about convincing the Lebanese government to go to war with Hezbollah. The post-session comments from participants made that pretty clear. In fairness I’m probably overstating things. The talks seem mostly to have been preparatory in nature, which makes sense given that there were no senior decision makers from either government in attendance. The real arm twisting will come in subsequent sessions, which have yet to be scheduled.
The New Humanitarian highlights the legal objections to the Israeli military’s (IDF) evacuation orders to southern Lebanese civilians:
International humanitarian law requires advance warning to protect civilian populations in war time, so many have questioned both the legality – and the intent – of these orders.
As Fadi Hachem, a human rights lawyer who lectures at the Lebanese American University in Beirut, told The New Humanitarian: “When warnings drive populations into conditions of extreme vulnerability without access to food, water, or medical care, the protective intent of the order is severely compromised.”
In addition, rights groups have said the orders may amount to the war crime of forced displacement, especially after Israeli officials explicitly said in late March they were demolishing south Lebanon houses and villages “in accordance with the model as Gaza”, and Israeli troops would remain in the area, with 600,000 displaced people not allowed to return “until the safety of Israel’s northern residents is guaranteed”.
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
The IDF killed at least 11 people, including two children, in multiple incidents across Gaza on Tuesday. One IDF attack targeted police, which has been a priority for Israeli officials as they aim to prevent the territory’s current police force from being folded into the new force that’s supposed to be created under the auspices of Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace.”
KUWAIT
Kuwaiti authorities have been holding US journalist Ahmed Shihab-Eldin in detention for six weeks now, apparently over his reporting in the early days of the Iran war. His specific crime seems to have been posting video and images of the war’s impact in Kuwait on his social media outlets, which the Kuwaitis are treating as a security breach even though the Committee to Protect Journalists says that everything he posted was already publicly available. Kuwait is not what you’d call a beacon of free expression and liberal values under normal circumstances, but Shihab-Eldin’s case is highlighting the extent to which the Gulf Arab states, and the US as well, have been heavily repressing war reporting even by their usual standards. Hundreds of people have been arrested across the Gulf on similar charges.
IRAN
The US military’s Central Command is reporting that zero ships passed through its blockade in the Strait of Hormuz during its first 24 hours, while six vessels responded to US orders to turn back. Maritime tracking suggests that this is a slight exaggeration and that at least three ships exited the Persian Gulf via the strait after the blockade went into effect and at least two of them were sailing from Iranian ports. But hey, close enough I guess.
Multiple outlets reported on Tuesday that US and Iranian negotiators may be heading back to Pakistan for another round of talks, and Donald Trump later told The New York Post that those talks could take place within the next two days. Later this week or early next week may be more realistic possibilities. It’s unclear what they would be discussing, but Al Jazeera dug into reports that their dispute over Iranian uranium enrichment has come down to the length of a proposed moratorium and there does seem to be something there. The Trump administration wants a 20 year moratorium while the Iranians are offering five.
The sticking point apparently hearkens back to the 2015 nuclear deal, many of whose provisions were supposed to sunset after a period of ten or 15 years. Both sides want to be able to say that they negotiated a “better” deal this time around, which for the Iranians means any temporary restrictions have to be shorter than 10 years and for the Trump administration means they have to be longer than 15 years. The 2015 deal didn’t include an enrichment moratorium of any length, so in theory the Trump administration could agree to Iran’s five year offer and still claim that it negotiated a “better” deal than the Obama administration got. But I doubt they’re going to see it that way. Still, if this is really the ground on which they’re negotiating it means that the Trump administration has already acquiesced to an Iranian “right” to enrich uranium and that could go a long way toward achieving an agreement.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
The AP reports that Afghanistan’s capital and largest city is “running out of water”:
Nestled in a high-altitude valley of the Hindu Kush mountains, Kabul is rapidly running out of water. Its population relies mostly on groundwater extracted from wells. But the groundwater has been receding at an alarming rate, and some wells have to be dug as deep as 150 meters (nearly 500 feet) to reach it.
An April 2025 report by the aid group Mercy Corps said the level of Kabul’s aquifers had plunged by 25-30 meters (about 80-100 feet) over the past decade. Aquifers hold massive amounts of water deep under land surfaces. Water in them collects slowly over years as precipitation seeps in. Too much extraction from aquifers, or changes to the climate bringing less water, leads to depletion.
“Without large-scale changes to Kabul’s water management dynamics, the city faces an unprecedented humanitarian disaster within the coming decade, and likely much sooner,” it said.
Climate change, mostly caused by the burning of gasoline, oil and coal, has played its part. Repeated droughts have reduced snowfall, whose gradual melting can replenish groundwater. Instead, Kabul sees more sudden, heavy rainfall that leads to flooding but not enough of it reaches the aquifer.
INDONESIA
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth hosted his Indonesian counterpart, Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, at the Pentagon on Tuesday to sign a new bilateral defense cooperation agreement. US and Indonesian forces already cooperate, particularly in the realm of joint exercises, but this agreement points toward shared technological development particularly regarding drones. It does not include anything about the US military having “blanket” access to Indonesian airspace, but a deal on that front is also rumored to be nearing completion.
AFRICA
SUDAN
According to United Nations Undersecretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Tom Fletcher, drone strikes have killed “nearly 700” Sudanese civilians so far this year. With the exceptions of the Kordofan region and Blue Nile state the conflict between the Sudanese military and the Rapid Support Forces has shifted away from clashes on the ground to tit-for-tat drone strikes that frequently seem to hit—intentionally or otherwise—markets, schools, and medical facilities. Even in the areas where the combatants actually encounter one another face to face drones have become a regular feature, especially in Kordofan where strikes seem to take place on a daily basis.
LIBYA
The Trump administration’s effort to reunify Libya took another step forward on Tuesday, when the US military’s Africa Command held special forces exercises involving personnel from both eastern and western Libya’s armed forces. This is the first time that those forces have jointly drilled together since Libya’s civil war began in 2014. It comes just a couple of days after the eastern and western parliaments agreed on Libya’s first truly national budget since 2013.
SOMALIA
The Somali military declared on Tuesday that its forces had killed 27 al-Shabab fighters in an operation in southern Somalia’s Jubaland state. This operation apparently involved both federal and state-level security personnel, which seems noteworthy inasmuch as Jubaland is one of several Somali states that are not currently recognizing the authority of the federal government. Still, this sort of security collaboration is fairly routine despite the political hostility. Somali officials also noted the role of “international partners” in carrying out airstrikes, which presumably means the United States.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
Reuters is reporting that the DRC will receive a group of at least 37, and possibly 45, people trafficked from the United States sometime this week. The Congolese government agreed to become part of the Trump administration’s human trafficking operation earlier this month, making it one of I believe eight African countries that have become party to these “third-country deportations” that are employed in cases where US authorities cannot for whatever reason deport people to their countries of origin. The threat of these kinds of operations is also intended to serve as a deterrent for anyone thinking about entering the US. These deportees will be housed in a hotel near Kinshasa’s airport for up to 15 days. There’s no information as to what will happen to them beyond that.
EUROPE
UKRAINE
A Russian missile strike reportedly killed at least five people, all civilians, in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Tuesday. The attack wounded more than 24 people, at least ten of them severely enough to require hospitalization.
The Ukrainian government is reportedly asking its Israeli counterpart to detain the Russian cargo vessel ABINSK, which is currently docked in the Israeli port of Haifa. Ukrainian officials allege that the ship was carrying grain harvested from parts of Ukraine that are under Russian occupation, which Kyiv regards as stolen. I haven’t seen any indication of a response from Israeli officials.
ITALY
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced on Tuesday that her government is suspending the renewal of its defense cooperation agreement with Israel. The Italian and Israeli governments negotiated that deal in 2006 and it renews every five years automatically unless one of the parties interrupts that process. Meloni cited “the current situation” in explaining her decision, likely a very vague reference to Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Lebanon. Italian officials have been unusually critical of Israel over its actions in that operation.
On a related note, Donald Trump bashed Meloni in an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera on Tuesday, saying that she is “very different from what I thought.” Trump’s comments focused on Italy’s refusal to open the Strait of Hormuz for him, and he’s also angry that Meloni criticized his ridiculous feud with Pope Leo XIV on Monday. The Iran war seems to have caused Meloni to recalibrate her previously tight relationship with Trump.
AMERICAS
PERU
There are still no official results from Peru’s delayed presidential election, but unofficial results make it clear that, as expected, no candidate won an outright victory. Perennial candidate Keiko Fujimori is “winning” the first round with a bit under 17 percent of the vote and should be heading to her fourth consecutive runoff in June. At this point it looks like she’ll be joined by right-wing ex-Lima Mayor Rafael López Aliaga, although that could still change as more votes are counted.
HAITI
Criminal insurgents attacked a commune in Haiti’s Southeast department overnight, killing at least seven people and setting fire to a police station. There’s no indication which of Haiti’s several gangs was responsible.
UNITED STATES
The US military bombed another speedboat in the eastern Pacific on Tuesday, killing at least four people. This is at least the fourth extrajudicial execution that US forces have carried out since Saturday, leaving at least 11 people dead in all.
Finally, in a piece for The New York Times Jonathan Guyer explains why Donald Trump’s crack negotiating team has failed to close a deal with Iran:
[Jared] Kushner and [Steve] Witkoff, the president’s son-in-law and special envoy for peace missions, respectively, represent the Trump mind-set: a rogue version of diplomacy that’s focused on the flashy and theatrical, a reflection of the Trump real estate developer ethos. But that ethos has failed, and Iran is proof.
In fact, in February, Mr. Kushner and Mr. Witkoff had a chance to enter into serious negotiations with Iran that could have secured a new nuclear deal and averted the American and Israeli war.
Now, after the president threatened to destroy “a whole civilization,” a two-week cease-fire is in place. But the cessation of hostilities came not through a Witkoff and Kushner-led initiative, but through emergency diplomacy led by Pakistan and China. The duo returned to the bargaining table this weekend, this time demoted, with Vice President JD Vance leading the diplomatic efforts. But the global backdrop of the negotiations — the Strait of Hormuz still in chaos, the American military still in place across the region — shows the shallowness and recklessness of their peace-as-business strategy. When it comes to peacemaking, Mr. Kushner and Mr. Witkoff are no match for the intensive work that it actually requires.