World roundup: April 11 2024
Stories from Israel-Palestine, Myanmar, Ukraine, and elsewhere
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This evening’s roundup is out early because of a family commitment. We’ll catch up tomorrow.
TODAY IN HISTORY
April 11, 1241: The Battle of Mohi
April 11, 1979: The Tanzania People’s Defense Force, along with a group of Ugandan opposition fighters called the Uganda National Liberation Front, seizes Kampala and forces Ugandan dictator Idi Amin to flee into exile after over eight years in power. Amin sought sanctuary first in Libya and later in Saudi Arabia, where he lived until his death in 2003. His time in power is remembered mostly for its brutality toward ethnic minorities and political opponents, with estimates of the number of people killed on Amin’s orders ranging from around 100,000 at the lower end to upwards of 500,000 at the higher end.
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL-PALESTINE
Most of the focus in Israel on Thursday appears to have shifted from Gaza to Iran, and specifically the threat of an “imminent” Iranian retaliation for that Israeli attack on an Iranian consular annex in Damascus last week. The head of the US military’s Central Command, General Erik Kurilla, is now in Israel to “coordinate” in the event of an Iranian action. In what seems almost like a microcosm of this entire crisis, he’d apparently been scheduled to visit Israel to oversee the assembly of the pier the US military is supposed to be building to facilitate the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza but now that seems to be on the proverbial back burner. There is still no consensus as to what form an Iranian retaliation might take but it sounds like US and Israeli officials are preparing for a worst case scenario—a large-scale missile and/or drone strike by Iran and its regional militia partners against Israel itself. That sort of operation might quite possibly be the death knell for efforts to contain what has been a relatively low-level regional conflict between Israel and Iranian interests.
The Biden administration has reportedly assured Israeli officials that the US will back them in the event of an escalation, though whether that would mean direct US military involvement remains to be seen. In the meantime, the Biden administration is reportedly passing messages to Tehran urging a restrained Iranian response. It’s been asking regional partners—Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—to relay those messages, and the British, German, and Russian governments have been publicly making similar calls. The administration may also be urging Israeli leaders to restrain their impulse to retaliate for whatever Iran might do. If the Iranians act proportionally—by, for example, attacking an overseas Israeli diplomatic facility—the onus would then be on the Israelis not to further escalate the situation.
Elsewhere, the Palestinian Authority earlier this week said it’s reviving its bid for full United Nations membership, which would entail international recognition of Palestinian statehood. I’m reluctant to devote much attention to this because the Biden administration has maintained the traditional US insistence that Palestinian statehood can only come about via negotiation with Israel. This gives the Israeli government a de facto veto, which coupled with the US government’s de jure veto in the UN Security Council (which has to approve new membership applications before they can be ratified by the General Assembly) means there’s no realistic path forward here—unless US policy changes.
TURKEY
Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced on Thursday that Turkish security forces had seized some 608 kilograms of cocaine and some 830 kilograms of processing/precursor chemicals in a major anti-drug operation across three provinces. This is the third-largest cocaine seizure in Turkish history—the largest came in 2021—and highlights Turkey’s apparently increasing prominence as a hub for trafficking drugs into Europe.
ASIA
AFGHANISTAN
Two senior Taliban figures issued separate and not entirely complementary messages to mark the Eid al-Fitr holiday this week. Taliban Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada actually issued two messages himself. One took the form of a rare in-person sermon in Kandahar on Wednesday in which he stridently defended the Taliban’s imposition of its repressive interpretation of Islamic law since retaking power in Afghanistan. The other was a published message issued in multiple languages over the weekend that was apparently a bit softer. Meanwhile, Afghan Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani issued his own statement that was considerably more conciliatory than Akhundzada’s, calling on the Taliban not to antagonize the Afghan public.
People who are invested in finding signs of discord within the Taliban are seizing on these statements as proof, though that’s likely overblown. Haqqani does have his own base of support within the Taliban by virtue of running the “Haqqani Network,” and he has at times been critical of the Taliban’s overall governing approach, but there’s nothing to indicate that he overstepped in his Eid message or to suggest that he was trying to challenge Akhundzada’s authority.
MYANMAR
Karen National Liberation Army and People’s Defense Force rebels reportedly seized control of the crucial border town of Myawaddy on Thursday after several days of fighting. The last Myanmar military unit still putting up a resistance apparently fled into Thailand as the rebels advanced—Thai authorities are now deciding what to do with them. Myawaddy is the largest commercial crossing point on the Myanmar-Thailand border and it’s the latest in a string of key checkpoints along the Thai and Chinese borders to fall into rebel hands since an alliance of opposition groups began a new offensive in late October.
PHILIPPINES
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. joined Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio at the White House on Thursday for a tripartite summit, following Kishida’s state visit the previous day and his address to Congress prior to the Marcos meeting. Their discussion will undoubtedly focus on China, particularly its maritime disputes with Manila in the South China Sea and Tokyo in the East China Sea, and may also involve some new US/Japanese commercial investments in the Philippines.
AFRICA
MALI
Mali’s ruling junta followed the ban it imposed on political activity on Wednesday by banning all media coverage of politics on Thursday. The junta is clearly reacting to mounting criticism of its slow/non-existent transition back to nominally democratic governance, ironically by validating that criticism. It’s already indefinitely delayed said transition, which was supposed to be concluded this year.
NIGER
A landmine blast in southwestern Niger’s Tillabéri region killed at least six soldiers near the Malian border earlier this week. Nigerien officials say their forces “neutralized” ten “terrorists” responsible for planting the landmine, without going into specifics.
At Responsible Statecraft, John Lechner and Sergey Eledinov argue that US officials have fundamentally misunderstood the relationship between Niger’s ruling junta and the Russian government:
On March 17 Niger’s National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP) suspended its military agreement with the United States after a visit by senior U.S. officials to the capital, Niamey. A CNSP spokesman said the decision was made after the U.S. delegation warned the military regime against partnering with Russia and Iran. Niger, which hosts around 1,000 U.S. troops and a drone base, has been an important partner in Washington’s counterterrorism operations in the region. But relations have deteriorated considerably since July 2023, when Niger’s presidential guard removed democratically elected Mohamed Bozoum and installed General Abdourahamane Tchiani.
Russian influence looms large in Western discourse on the Sahel, and now informs U.S. policy and decision-making in places like Niger. This is a mistake. Outsized focus on Russia misunderstands the scale and scope of Moscow’s presence. More importantly, it ignores longstanding patterns of governance and denies the role of Africans in emerging pro-sovereignty movements and political blocs. Neither the U.S. nor Russia are in a position to force Africans to choose sides, efforts to do so will only result in rebuke.
EUROPE
RUSSIA
Russian security forces reportedly killed two people in the Kabardino-Balkaria republic on Thursday. Details are unclear but Russian authorities are claiming that they were involved in “plotting terror attacks,” according to the AP. Kabardino-Balkaria is located in Russia’s northern Caucasus region, which has in the past been fertile ground for jihadist movements.
UKRAINE
A “massive” Russian bombardment overnight destroyed Ukraine’s Trypilska power plant, the largest civilian power facility servicing Kyiv and its surrounding areas. The attack puts some 3 million people at risk of losing power, though with electricity demand relatively low right now the attack didn’t have a significant immediate effect. The attack continued a series of recent Russian strikes against Ukrainian power infrastructure, which Russian President Vladimir Putin characterized as part of the effort to “demilitarize” Ukraine and also as retaliation for Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian infrastructure.
The Ukrainian parliament on Thursday passed a bill that aims to boost military conscription. The measure removes some of the harshest draft dodging penalties in Ukrainian law but it also requires all Ukrainian men aged 18-60 to register updated personal data with the Ukrainian military. Said data could be used to track draft dodgers or to conscript additional men should parliament broaden the eligibility requirements (as it’s done in the past). It also removes a legal provision that demobilizes soldiers who have been in the field for 36 months. The New York Times has a report on the demographic challenges the Ukrainian government is facing as it tries to bolster its military manpower:
The roughly one million men who serve in Ukraine’s army are battered and exhausted. Many soldiers have been on combat duty for two years. Tens of thousands have been lost to death or serious injury. New recruits are desperately needed.
But Ukraine is running up against a critical demographic constraint long in the making: It has very few young men.
Healthy men under age 30, the backbone of most militaries, are part of the smallest generation in Ukraine’s modern history. Ukraine must balance the need to counter a relentless Russian offensive by adding more troops against the risk of hollowing out an entire generation.
AMERICAS
CHILE
The Chilean government has recalled its ambassador from Venezuela, after Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yván Gil earlier this week called the Tren de Aragua criminal gang a “fiction created by the international media.” It’s unclear on what basis Gil made that statement, which seems to contradict even the Venezuelan government’s own position on the group. Tren de Aragua is believed to be one of the Western Hemisphere’s largest transnational criminal networks and has been accused of involvement in human trafficking in Chile.
COLOMBIA
The National Liberation Army (ELN) rebel group declared on Thursday that it’s “suspending” its involvement in peace talks with the Colombian government but will attend an “extraordinary” negotiating session that now looks like it will take place in Venezuela in a matter of days. The two sides were supposed to hold a regular meeting later this month but that now seems to be off pending the results of that emergency session. The rebels cited government pressure against their fighters in Colombia’s Nariño department as the reason the peace process has started to come undone.
UNITED STATES
Finally, at The New York Times Spencer Ackerman argues that the Biden administration’s unmitigated support for Israel has forced it to break its own rules:
No sooner had a nearly unanimous United Nations Security Council passed a resolution demanding an “immediate cease-fire” in Gaza last month than the United States and Israel acted as if it were a meaningless piece of paper. Israel, unwilling to accept a U.N. mandate, continued bombing the overcrowded southern city of Rafah and besieging Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City. Shortly after the vote, Biden administration officials called the resolution, No. 2728, “nonbinding,” in what appeared to be an attempt to deny its status as international law.
It was a confounding approach from an administration that allowed the resolution to go through with an abstention after vetoing three earlier ones. It also triggered a predictable bout of hand-wringing over the value of international law. At the State Department press briefing after the resolution passed, the department’s spokesman, Matthew Miller, said the measure would neither result in an immediate cease-fire nor affect thorny hostage-release negotiations. One reporter asked, “If that’s the case, what the hell is the point of the U.N. or the U.N. Security Council?”
The question is valid, but it’s also misdirected. U.N. resolutions that are written without enforcement measures obviously cannot force Israel to stop what its leadership insists is a justified war necessary to remove Hamas and prevent another Oct. 7 massacre. But it’s just as obvious what entity can make Israel stop and isn’t doing so: the United States.
Whatever the Biden administration might have thought it was doing by permitting the resolution to pass and then undermining it, the maneuver exposed the continuing damage Israel’s war in Gaza is doing to the United States’ longstanding justification for being a superpower: guaranteeing what U.S. administrations like to call the international rules-based order.