Iran war roundup: April 6 2026
Catching up on the last few days and looking ahead to what might be next
A belated Happy Easter to those who celebrated on Sunday!
Before we run down the most recent Iran war news I want to thank “Week in Review” purveyor Ashley Gate for filling in on Friday and doing such a great job. Thanks to her I only need to recap the past couple of days and not an entire week. And yes this is a day earlier than I said I would be returning to regular newsletter duties, but under the circumstances I think it would be best to get caught up because by the time I finish tomorrow’s roundup the conflict may be in a very different place.
Why, you ask? Well, it all goes back to yet another unhinged threat from Donald Trump, who marked the Easter holiday on Sunday by hopping on social media to declare that “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.” He’s referring to his threat of ten days ago to attack Iranian energy sites (a target package that has now been expanded to include bridges, one of which the US already struck on Friday) absent Tehran’s surrender. That deadline was supposed to expire on Monday so Trump’s Easter screed actually extended it by one more day, although he now says that this “Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time” deadline is “final” and said on Monday that “the entire country can be taken out in one night — and that night might be tomorrow night.”
Ceasefire Talks
In an effort to stave off whatever Trump has planned, the Pakistani government presented a ceasefire proposal to US and Iranian officials sometime between Sunday night and Monday morning. It calls for an immediate halt to the fighting and the reopening of the strait, with a final peace deal to be reached within 20 days. An earlier report had the US and Iranians discussing a 45 day, two stage ceasefire leading to a peace deal. The Iranian government submitted a response to at least one of those scenarios on Monday that Trump called “a significant proposal” while saying that it was “not good enough.” That “10 point” response apparently eschews a temporary ceasefire in favor of fully ending the war, while creating “a protocol for safe passage through” Hormuz and demanding both sanctions relief and reparations.
Based on comments that “a senior Iranian official” made to Drop Site, my sense is that their objection to a temporary ceasefire isn’t based on an immutable principle but rather on the expectation that Tehran would reopen the strait in return for merely a pause in the fighting. They consider the Hormuz issue a subject for subsequent negotiations and as Ashley noted on Friday there is a real sense that they will aim to establish some permanent form of control over passage through the strait (a toll arrangement, more or less). Ideally they would want to do this in coordination with Oman, which sits on the other side of the strait, but Omani officials have not expressed any interest in this sort of scheme. It is hard to imagine an end to this war that doesn’t include the Iranians surrendering active control over the strait, either voluntarily in a diplomatic settlement or by force, but they’re clearly not going to trade control away for something as ephemeral as a temporary ceasefire.
Anyway my point is that I don’t think the Iranians have foreclosed on the idea of a temporary ceasefire for negotiating purposes but they’re not interested in conceding anything to get it. They’re also concerned, for good reason, that the Trump administration would use a temporary ceasefire to regroup militarily and then resume the war. They already reportedly rejected a “48 hour” ceasefire last week and they have no reason to trust any US commitment at this point, which makes negotiations much harder. So my expectation is that “Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time” is likely to come and go without a deal, and then it will be up to Trump where things go next.
